Seeking Alpha • Nov 11

Understanding Why Open Text Acquired Micro Focus Helps In Valuations

Summary Canadian-based Open Text's shares suffered from a downside of 20% when it announced the deal to acquire the U.K.'s Micro Focus. It could be because the merger synergies are not immediately obvious. To make sense of it all, one has to consider that the acquirer is an ECM company while the target develops software, which means two completely different business activities. Given its track record, Open Text has the qualities needed to make it all work and its cash-generating capacity should help repay the enormous debt incurred. Therefore, it is a Buy, while Micro Focus is a Hold, but still, one should remain focused on fundamentals amid market exuberances based on low inflation prints.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 07

What To Do After Open Text Buys Micro Focus

Summary MFGP stock doubled after a dividend alert warning; shares lost 10% since my last article on April 2021. Reasons to hold or sell MFGP before deal closing discussed. Open Text's current prospects and future with Micro Focus assessed. One of the understandable limitations of quantitative analysis is its inability to predict executive actions. Micro Focus International (MFGP) scored poorly on Seeking Alpha's dividend scorecard and grading system. This suggested the struggling firm would cut its dividend. This is not a criticism of quantitative stock scores. It is a reminder that investors need to complement those figures with fundamental analysis. MFGP stock gained 73% on an unpredictable turn of events. Open Text (OTEX), a Canadian software firm, offered to buy Micro Focus for an enterprise value of $6 billion. Open Text is serious about the deal. It is buying the company in an all-cash deal. Conversely, AppLovin's (APP) bid for Unity (U) appeared suspect. If agreed upon, Unity shareholders would receive 55% of the combined company's outstanding shares. What should Micro Focus investors do? Is the stock a hold until the deal closes? Is Open Text a buy? Deal Details Open Text will offer MFGP shareholders cash at an enterprise value of $6.0 billion. Enterprise value is the sum of market capitalization plus total debt less cash and cash equivalents. EV = MC + Total Debt - C. At a $5.87 share price, Micro Focus has a market capitalization of $1.9 billion. In its quarter ended October 2021, the firm had total debt of $4.524 billion. After subtracting $578.7 million from its April 2022 quarter, its enterprise value is $5.845 billion. MFGP data by YCharts Shareholders who hold until the deal closes will earn another 2.65% from here. By comparison, the 1-3 year Treasury Bond (SHY) yields 0.67%. The return from MFGP here is comparable to the 30-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which yields 2.17%. The difference is that shareholders face a low risk of the deal falling through. TLT investors risk further downside as stock markets price bigger interest rate hikes. Investors should have a high level of confidence that the deal will close. This suggests they hold MFGP stock until the deal closes. Combined Strength Open Text sells information management software. Its cloud-native solution enables customers to master modern work, digitize supply chains, and create communication-centric experiences. By acquiring Micro Focus, it will increase its company size, customer base, and global scale. Micro Focus customers benefit from Open Text's expertise in accelerating customer digital transformation activities. Companies must realize higher efficiencies to lower operating costs. The two firms have a combined total addressable market of a whopping $170 billion. Open Text CEO & CTO Mark J. Barrenechea believes the company will realize higher adjusted EBITDA immediately. Debt Raised Open Text will fund the aggressive acquisition using its existing cash and raising new debt. It will also tap into its existing revolving credit facility. It is getting an excellent deal. MFGP stock has strong scores on valuation and profitability: SA Premium In the last few years, it failed to realize growth. Shareholders suffered because the stock fell from over $6.00 at the start of the year to a low of around $3.00. Recent speculators doubled their return. Open Text has equally poor SA growth quant scores with a D- grade: SA Premium OTEX stock momentum scores a D+. Before Open Text announced the deal, the stock trended consistently lower. OTEX data by YCharts In the above chart, Open Text stock fared well when it reduced its financial debt to equity. The stock broke down from horizontal support at $40 after the deal announcement. It closed at $29.47 on Sept. 6, 2022. Weak Prospects In the fourth quarter, Open Text posted anemic growth rates. Total revenue rose by only 1.0% and 4.7% in constant currency terms. Still, annual recurring revenue accounts for 82% of total revenue. It grew by 6.6% Y/Y or up by 9.8% in constant currency. Cloud revenue grew by 14.3% Y/Y. Non-GAAP earnings of 80 cents a share are unchanged from last year. Growth in Open Text's cloud revenue will continue. Customers are migrating from off-cloud to its content cloud. The stock is underperforming because investors are worried the digitization trend will lag. The company's growth might stall not from an industry slowdown but limited staff resources and skill availability. As Open Text expands globally, these staff skill limitations will intensify. Fortunately, the company has a steady long-term through 2030. For example, it is Toyota's (TM) supply chain partner. Toyota has 2030 electrification goals.

Seeking Alpha • Aug 01

3 Stocks That Slashed Dividends: Dividend Cuts You Could Have Avoided

U.S. GDP fell at a 0.9% annual rate, making it the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. Recession, slower growth, and inflation fears can drive companies to slash dividends. Seeking Alpha’s Dividend Scorecard and Grading System can identify stocks at potential risk of cutting their dividends and is an excellent tool that forewarns investors of dividend hazards. This article highlights three dividend stocks whose dividends have been cut and possessed weak Dividend Safety Grades. Dividend Safety and What Dividend Cuts Mean Dividend growth investors seek investments that generate a rising income stream over the long term. As market volatility increases along with inflation and recession fear, investors tend to flock to investments that can serve as inflation hedges or offer income to offset losses. One of the best hedges against inflation is dividend-paying stocks, which tend to be less volatile in an environment that may experience a downturn, offering the opportunity to get paid while waiting out the storm so-to-speak. But not all dividend-paying stocks are created equal, and more often than not, higher-yielding dividend stocks or those with declining prices experience a greater risk of cuts to their dividend. Pay attention to warning signs that a rocky road lies ahead. Indicators like payout ratios, dividend coverage ratios, interest coverage ratios, debt ratios, profitability metrics, and weak cash per share figures can flag when a dividend is at risk. For this reason, I developed Seeking Alpha's Quant Dividend Grades to provide an instant characterization of each stock's dividend strength or weakness compared to its sector. The model works well, and the measured dividend metrics are very transparent and have demonstrated their accuracy by averting 99% of dividend cuts since 2010. Dividend Safety and Averted Cuts (Seeking Alpha Premium) Additionally, stocks with an A+ for Dividend Growth have returned 436.54% in the past 12 years, vs. 302.81% for the comparable index. SA Dividend Growth Grades Beat Dividend Growth Funds Chart (Seeking Alpha Premium) The performance of the graph above and the below Portfolio and Performance Attribution Statistics reflect the period 01/04/2010 to 07/26/2022. Portfolio and Performance Attribution Statistics (01/04/2010 to 07/26/2022) (Seeking Alpha Excel file) Investors should be knowledgeable about stocks with poor dividend grades that carry negative analyst ratings and poor fundamentals, which is why dividend safety is a vital measurement of a company's ability to reward shareholders from profits. In an economic downturn like we're currently experiencing, you'll typically see more minor cuts or a suspension of dividends. But when cuts are business specific - they're often overleveraged with too much debt, experiencing a business downturn as we saw with the pandemic where earnings and revenue fall, or some other circumstance - that's where the situation could be troublesome or a worst-case scenario. Additionally, as a pre-emptive strike, fearful corporate executives may cut dividends in preparation for an oncoming recession or economic slowdown. The three dividend stocks I am highlighting today have cut their dividends. In each case, poor dividend safety grades were a major red flag. A simple click on the Dividend Safety grade would have unveiled the poor underlying metrics and data points that can undermine a dividend's safety. 3 Stocks That Cut Their Dividends Dividends distribute a portion of a company's profits to shareholders. Because top dividend stocks with excellent safety ratings and metrics can help preserve capital and make investors money on a quarterly or annual basis, they help combat inflation. Those that fail to pay consistent, consecutive dividends over the years prove their vulnerability when their dividends are slashed. Heed the warning signs showcased in our Dividend Grades as we look at three dividend stocks with Hold ratings. 1. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Market Capitalization: $100.21B Quant Sector Ranking (as of 7/29): 73 out of 279 Dividend Yield ((FWD)): 8.75% Quant Rating: Hold Dividend Safety Grade When Cut: D Diversified metals and mining company Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is a mining and exploration company known for processing mineral resources and operating underground mines globally. The company is headquartered in London and offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, lithium, and several other materials. Although its valuation is extremely attractive that includes a forward P/E ratio of 6.23x, a 48.34% discount to the sector, and a forward EV/EBIT of 4.42x with a more than 50% discount below the sector, it has not been enough of a catalyst to move the stock in the right direction. The stock's momentum compared to the sector could use a boost along with its dismal growth figures. Take a look at RIO's momentum grade below. RIO Stock Momentum With an overall momentum grade of C, RIO's quarterly price performance is strongly bullish. Many analysts indicate the stock is overbought, driving the share price higher, despite its YTD price performance -of 7.81%. RIO Stock Momentum Grade (Seeking Alpha Premium) Over the three-, six-, and one-year price performance, RIO's sector peers have outshined this leading mining company. But like many commodities this year that have faced price surges and declines, the company's performance has been tied to volatility, hindering its growth and profits. RIO Growth & Profitability Historically, RIO has benefited from its core product, iron ore. With this in mind, the most recent year-over-year growth figures and the forward estimated growth figures look pretty lackluster. Price fluctuations from 2013 to 2016 experienced a 70% decline, only to recover and increase by 400% from 2016 to early 2021. RIO Stock Growth Grade (Seeking Alpha Premium) Following a drop in H1 revenue of 10% and an EBITDA decline of 26% year-over-year, RIO slashed its dividend by 53%, from $5.61/share to $2.67/share despite its yield being as high as 13.42%, citing weaker iron ore prices, higher costs amid inflationary pressures, and labor shortages. The company's cash flow from operations was down from $13.7B in H1 2021 to $10.51B, and with the stock down nearly 30% over the last year, the company may need to reassess its strategy. "Market conditions were good, albeit below last year's record levels. We delivered largely flat production and solid financial results, with an underlying EBITDA of $15.6 billion, free cash flow of $7.1 billion, and underlying earnings of $8.6 billion, after taxes and government royalties of $4.8 billion. As a result, we are paying our second highest ever interim dividend of $4.3 billion, a 50% payout, in line with our policy. The market environment has become more challenging at the end of the period" - Jakob Stausholm, RIO Chief Executive. Despite RIO's history of rapid earnings and dividend growth from 2012 to 2021; following negative earnings in 2012 and 2015 amid expenses and the acquisition of aluminum assets north of $20B; the company recovered given the jump in iron ore prices over the years. Most recently, several factors have contributed to RIO's dividend reduction, including soaring inflation, a substantial decrease in earnings amid the surge in energy costs, labor constraints, and a slowdown in demand from China. The dividend grades below showcase the unlikely chance of a strong and safe dividend. RIO Stock Dividend Safety Grades (Seeking Alpha Premium) It's important to note that RIO slashed its dividend on July 27th of this year when the dividend safety possessed a D grade. RIO's dividend safety rating has since been updated to C-. It's important to note that even with the improvement in overall dividend safety rating, some of the current underlying metrics are very poor, including a D for trailing Cash Dividend Payout Ratio of 84.36% and F's for FYI Dividend Payout Ratio and Cash Flow Payout Ratio. RIO Dividend Safety Underlying Metrics (Seeking Alpha Premium) Overall, RIO's business is stable, but commodities can be volatile, subject to volatile price fluctuations, as we've seen this year, contributing to the company's dividend cut. In addition, RIO has spent a substantial amount of money on acquisitions, which eats into profits. As fellow SA Author John Kingham writes, "Be wary of companies that spend more on acquisitions than they make in profit." In addition, China's lockdowns have harmed RIO's growth, given the halting of investment into construction and infrastructure that kept iron ore prices above $150 per ton. While China's economy rebounds, hopefully, this will improve the picture for RIO's dividend going forward. Its overall scorecard paints a doubtful picture for the dividend going forward, especially following three downward earnings revisions in the last 90 days and speculative forward guidance. RIO's overall Dividend Safety is a D. Many of its underlying dividend safety metrics are very poor, so it is important to consider our scorecard as a tool to avoid companies whose dividends may be at risk of being cut. 2. Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR) Market Capitalization: $13.51B Quant Sector Ranking (as of 7/29): 79 out of 250 Dividend Yield ((FWD)): 3.41% Quant Rating: Hold Dividend Safety Grade When Cut: C- 2022 may have felt like the Shawshank Redemption for this stock. YTD, the stock is down 11.3%, and the monthly dividend was thinly cut in February, March, and May. Cable and satellite telecommunications provider Shaw Communications is a Canadian-based company that operates connectivity of WiFi, internet, and data services throughout North America. SJR has an average valuation and improving momentum. However, the company's growth is lacking, and its share price has experienced a decline over the last year, indicating why it slashed its dividend on May 9th of this year. Shaw Communications Stock Valuation & Momentum Despite a C- valuation grade, Shaw Communications' underlying valuation metrics indicate the stock is trading at a premium. With a forward P/E ratio of 21.72x, a more than 16% difference to the sector, and EV/Sales and EV/EBIT well above 100% difference to its sector peers, the stock is considered overpriced by many investors. SJR Stock Valuation (Seeking Alpha Premium) In addition to its valuation, the stock's YTD performance is -11.32%. Over the last year, while momentum is improving quarterly, its performance is down 7.24%, on the heels of increasing recession concerns. SJR Stock Growth The communications sector has faced tremendous post-pandemic headwinds, including high inflation, macro pressures involving the fall of advertising dollars, the shift from cable to streaming services, and increased recession fears. Communications Services companies are getting pummeled, many of which have given up half their value in 2022. Take, for example Snap Inc. (SNAP) -78.79% YTD, Netflix (NFLX) -62.35% YTD, and Roku Inc. (ROKU) -71.90% YTD. SJR Stock Growth Grade (Seeking Alpha Premium) In the current environment, companies like Shaw are struggling to grow, hence, its D growth grade. And despite Q3 EPS of $0.32 beating by $0.02, revenue of $1.05B missed by $10.66M. Our quant ratings maintain SJR as a Hold amid the company's lower than anticipated valuation and halted merger with Rogers Communications (RCI). In March of 2021, RCI announced that it would purchase SJC but has experienced roadblocks from Canadian regulators investigating antitrust concerns, posing a headwind to its growth and dividend. "Shaw remains deeply committed to the combination with Rogers, and our announced agreement for the sale of Freedom Mobile to Quebecor marks a critical point in our bold and transformative journey to join together with Rogers. We feel strongly that the sale of Freedom to Quebecor will be seen as a positive outcome by the regulators as Quebecor expands their successful wireless operations through this acquisition. We continue to support the ongoing process and remain optimistic that there is a clear path to obtaining the remaining regulatory approvals in an expeditious manner" -Brad Shaw, CEO. Despite a forward dividend yield of 3.41% and 35 consecutive years of dividend payments, the Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth Grade is F because of the Dividend Cut. The company's overall growth characteristics and middle-of-the-road valuation factor grades indicate uncertain future stock performance. With this in mind, the dividend reduction has enabled analysts to take up their actual earnings estimates. In the last 90 days, five analysts have revised their earnings estimates up and only one has reduced their estimates. SJR Dividend Consistency Grade (Seeking Alpha Premium) Recession fears are mounting. A decline in ad dollars and a merger deal that may blow up may be a recipe for disaster and a big risk for investors considering this stock which already saw a dividend cut by 87.6% earlier this year. Dividend Safety Grade Moreover, as we look at the dividend scorecard, SJR's dividend safety has been declining. As evidenced by the underlying dividend safety metrics, SJR's are nearly 2x that of sector median peers. High payout ratios (those generally between 55% to 75%) indicate that a company distributes more than half of its earnings to shareholders, and therefore less earnings are retained for growth, limiting CAPEX plans for the future. SJR Dividend Safety Grade (Seeking Alpha Premium)

Seeking Alpha • Jul 20

Micro Focus International goes ex-dividend tomorrow

Micro Focus International (NYSE:MFGP) had declared $0.08/share interim dividend. Payable Aug. 5; for shareholders of record July 22; ex-div July 21. See MFGP Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Seeking Alpha • May 24

Micro Focus International: Dividend Trap To Avoid

2017 Merger with HPE’s software unit was a mistake that has yet to be ironed out. Share price continues to get beaten up, but is the 6% dividend yield an opportunity or a trap? High debt levels persist, turnaround seems like it will never happen.

Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

Micro Focus International: Still On A Long Road To Recovery

Micro Focus International reported its interim first-half 2021 results highlighted by weak financial trends amid an ongoing restructuring and COVID disruptions. The company maintains a positive outlook with a turnaround strategy focused on stabilizing revenues by the fiscal year 2023. While a 5% dividend yield appears compelling, weak growth likely limits upside in the stock against poor sentiment.

총 주주 수익률	7.6%
미래 배당 수익률	3.7%
배당 성장률	-22.0%
다음 배당 지급일	n/a
배당락일	n/a
주당 배당금	n/a
배당 성향	-38%

구분	배당 수익률
회사 (MFGP)	4.4%
시장 하위 25% (US)	1.4%
시장 상위 25% (US)	4.2%
업계 평균 (Software)	0.9%
분석가 예측 (MFGP) (최대 3년)	3.7%

데이터	최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간)
기업 분석	2023/02/01 13:25
종가	2023/01/30 00:00
수익	2022/04/30
연간 수익	2021/10/31

패키지	데이터	기간	미국 소스 예시 ^*
기업 재무제표	10년	손익계산서 현금흐름표 대차대조표	SEC 양식 10-K SEC 양식 10-Q
분석가 컨센서스 추정치	+3년	재무 예측 분석가 목표주가	분석가 리서치 보고서 Blue Matrix
시장 가격	30년	주가 배당, 분할 및 기타 조치	ICE 시장 데이터 SEC 양식 S-1
지분 구조	10년	주요 주주 내부자 거래	SEC 양식 4 SEC 양식 13D
경영진	10년	리더십 팀 이사회	SEC 양식 10-K SEC 양식 DEF 14A
주요 개발	10년	회사 공시	SEC 양식 8-K

분석가	기관
Raimo Lenschow	Barclays
Josep Bori	BNP Paribas
John King	BofA Global Research

This company has been acquired

Micro Focus International 배당 및 자사주 매입

배당 기준 점검 2/6

핵심 정보

최근 배당 및 자사주 매입 업데이트

Recent updates

Micro Focus International plc Announces Executive Changes

Micro Focus International Provides Delisting Update

Understanding Why Open Text Acquired Micro Focus Helps In Valuations

What To Do After Open Text Buys Micro Focus

3 Stocks That Slashed Dividends: Dividend Cuts You Could Have Avoided

Micro Focus International goes ex-dividend tomorrow

Micro Focus International: Dividend Trap To Avoid

Micro Focus International: Still On A Long Road To Recovery

Micro Focus International plc Withdraws Financial Guidance for Fiscal 2020

Micro Focus International plc(LSE:MCRO) dropped from S&P EUROPE 350 - Software & Services (Industry Group)

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