Dropbox, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DBX 주식 리포트

시가총액: US$6.3b

Dropbox 향후 성장

Future 기준 점검 1/6

Dropbox 의 수익은 연간 0.5% 감소할 것으로 예상되는 반면, 연간 수익은 0.7% 로 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. EPS는 연간 2.5% 만큼 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다. 자기자본이익률은 3년 후 270.5% 로 예상됩니다.

핵심 정보

0.7%

이익 성장률

2.45%

EPS 성장률

Software 이익 성장20.1%
매출 성장률-0.5%
향후 자기자본이익률270.50%
애널리스트 커버리지

Good

마지막 업데이트28 May 2026

최근 향후 성장 업데이트

Recent updates

내러티브 업데이트 • May 30

DBX: Future Earnings Will Hinge On Execution And Leadership Transition

Analysts lifted their implied fair value for Dropbox stock by about $0.67 to roughly $26.17, pointing to tweaks in assumptions around discount rate, revenue trends, profit margins and future P/E multiples. Recent $1 price target increases at BofA and Citi helped support that shift despite a downgrade from William Blair.
분석 기사 • May 15

Dropbox's (NASDAQ:DBX) Solid Earnings Have Been Accounted For Conservatively

Dropbox, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DBX ) announced a healthy earnings result recently, and the market rewarded it with a strong...
Seeking Alpha • May 11

Dropbox: Paid User Stabilization And FCF Boost Are Encouraging (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Dropbox earns a rating upgrade to neutral as Q1 results show stabilization and improved cash flow guidance. DBX now trades at just 6.0x FY26 EV/FCF, offering a compelling ~17% FCF yield with limited dilution. While growth remains choppy and competitive risks persist, the company's durable cash flows and AI resistance support valuation. Management lifted FY26 guidance, with revenue decline narrowing to -0.9% to -0.4% and FCF guidance raised to $1.055+ billion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
내러티브 업데이트 • Apr 23

DBX: Future Earnings Will Depend On Core Resilience And Ongoing Buybacks

Analysts have trimmed Dropbox's implied price target to about $25.50, reflecting a modest adjustment to valuation assumptions as Street research cites mixed recent results, slower growth trends into 2026, and the need for clearer traction from newer products such as Dash. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dropbox reflects a more cautious stance, with several firms lowering price targets and adjusting ratings as they reassess growth, execution on new products like Dash, and how much investors are willing to pay for the story.
내러티브 업데이트 • Apr 09

DBX: Future Earnings Profile Will Rely On Core Stability And Capital Returns

Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Dropbox to a range centered around $25 to $27. This reflects ongoing concerns about growth challenges, mixed recent results, and the need for clearer traction from products like Dash before considering a more constructive stance.
내러티브 업데이트 • Mar 26

DBX: Execution And Buybacks Will Shape Future Earnings Multiple Constraints

For Dropbox, the analyst price target in this framework increases from $20.00 to $21.00 as analysts factor in recent target cuts from Citi, UBS, RBC Capital, and JPMorgan, along with updated assumptions for growth, profitability, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dropbox reflects a cautious tone, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and one downgrade in coverage.
내러티브 업데이트 • Mar 11

DBX: Future Earnings Profile Will Depend On Core Stability And New Product Execution

Our updated narrative trims the analyst price target for Dropbox from $28.57 to $25.50, reflecting a series of recent target cuts from $30 to $27, $27 to $23, $35 to $30, and $29 to $25 as analysts point to ongoing growth challenges, mixed results, and limited evidence of traction from newer products like Dash. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more cautious stance on Dropbox, with several firms trimming their price targets and emphasizing execution on growth initiatives and new products like Dash as key swing factors for valuation.
내러티브 업데이트 • Feb 25

DBX: Buybacks And AI Investment Will Support Higher Future Pricing

The analyst price target for Dropbox has been reduced from $35 to $30 as analysts factor in mixed recent results, ongoing growth challenges, and questions around the pace of adoption and monetization for new products like Dash. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dropbox reflects a cautious stance overall, but there are still some constructive signals for investors who are focused on execution and valuation.
내러티브 업데이트 • Feb 11

DBX: Execution And Competitive Pressures Will Constrain Future Earnings Multiple

Analysts kept their $20.00 fair value estimate for Dropbox steady while slightly adjusting assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, margins and future P/E to reflect updated views on the risk profile and earnings power, without changing the overall valuation anchor. Analyst Commentary While the fair value estimate for Dropbox remains unchanged at $20.00, some elements of Street research highlight risks that readers should keep in mind when thinking about valuation and execution.
내러티브 업데이트 • Jan 26

DBX: Q3 Margin Strength And Guidance Shifts Will Shape Fair Value Outlook

Analysts have inched their fair value estimate for Dropbox higher to $28.57 from $28.13, reflecting updated assumptions around a slightly higher discount rate, a modest decline in expected revenue growth, a marginally stronger profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple in light of recent research that includes RBC Capital's price target move to $38 after what it called decent Q3 results. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dropbox has focused on how the latest quarterly results line up against expectations and what that might mean for valuation.
내러티브 업데이트 • Jan 11

DBX: Q3 Outperformance And Buybacks Will Support Higher Future Pricing

Analysts raised their fair value estimate for Dropbox to US$35 from US$32, citing the recent price target increase from US$35 to US$38 at RBC Capital and research that highlights stronger than expected Q3 revenue, billings, and operating margins, despite slightly softer annual recurring revenue. Analyst Commentary For Dropbox, bullish analysts are pointing to the recent price target increase to US$38 as a sign of confidence in how the company is executing against expectations.
내러티브 업데이트 • Dec 13

DBX: Rising Execution Risks Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Multiple

Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Dropbox from $23.00 to $20.00 per share, reflecting a higher assumed discount rate, while also acknowledging slightly better long term margin prospects and a lower future earnings multiple. Analyst Commentary While recent earnings have demonstrated resilient profitability and solid execution, bearish analysts continue to flag a disconnect between Dropbox's share price and its long term fundamental outlook.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 21

Dropbox: Losing Customers, Market Share, And Revenue

Summary Dropbox has faced near-zero growth and a stiff decline, struggling to compete with rivals like Box, which shows better growth rates. Despite a 10% gain over the past year, Dropbox's poor Q4 earnings and bleak FY25 outlook signal continued customer loss and revenue decline. Dropbox's subsidiary FormSwift is underperforming, and the company's AI product, Dropbox Dash, lacks compelling differentiation, worsening its competitive stance. Despite a cheap FCF multiple under 10x, given Dropbox's poor outlook and lack of growth prospects, it's advisable to steer clear and invest elsewhere. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 26

Dropbox: I Expect Further Downside

Summary Dropbox shares are down around 15% since reporting Q4'24, guiding for revenue and user decline in 2025. The core business looks to be deteriorating with a vulnerable 80% gross margin and increased competition from other cloud storage providers. Dropbox Dash, the company's pivot to universal search, is so far not generating revenue and the product will likely face competition from other AI and big tech alternatives. I previously rated shares a sell at around $31, but I expect more downside from here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 18

Dropbox: Low Growth, Fair Valuation And Competition Risks

Summary Dropbox operates in a competitive market, showing strong features but limited EPS growth, leading to a "hold" rating. The company enhances governance and collaboration, reduces capex, and uses gen AI for productivity. Financially, Dropbox has better gross margins than Box but lags in revenue growth and efficiency, issuing significant debt for buybacks. Workforce restructuring and improved data governance in Dash AI present opportunities, but low growth and competition pose risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 29

Dropbox: Terminal Value Component Remains An Enduring Question Mark

Summary Dropbox's attractive financials are overshadowed by concerns about terminal value risk, leading to market discounting and heightened stock volatility. Management's continued R&D spending despite stagnant growth raises questions, highlighted by a frustrating earnings call comparison to Netflix's evolution. Dropbox's efforts like Paper, Spaces, and Dash reflect survivorship bias, with many initiatives failing to reignite growth. We anticipated more aggressive acquisitions, but recent moves seem tangential, prompting us to step back and reconsider our investment stance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 27

Dropbox: Redundant With No Credible Pivots

Summary Dropbox is priced as a premium service but offers little more than its competitors. Growth in paying users has come to almost a halt, and canceling subscribers are unlikely to return. DBX's model was made for a different age. Today, users increasingly expect cloud storage to be free or as a benefit of signing up to a big tech ecosystem. Shares traded down to around $20 this year after DBX reported a decline in paying users in Q4'23 and guided below street expectations. Since then, shares have, in my opinion, unjustifiably rallied back to around $30. My outlook for Dropbox suggests shares should be valued at around $16 presenting a significant downside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 12

Dropbox: This Situation Is A Falling Knife

Summary Dropbox's user growth has nearly halted, with revenue growth sliding to low single digits and customer acquisition faltering, signaling more downside ahead. Dropbox faces stiff competition from Box and Google Drive, leading to an existential crisis and a major slowdown in user acquisition. Despite large free cash flows, Dropbox maintains a net debt position and lowered its cash flow guidance, pushing it further from its $1 billion FCF goal. AI features haven't boosted Dropbox's top-line growth, and increased churn rates question the stickiness and value of its subscription revenue base. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 03

Dropbox: Business Has A Poor Competitive Position

Summary My recommendation for Dropbox is a hold rating due to its structurally disadvantaged position against larger competitors like OneDrive and Google Drive. Despite its competitive challenges, DBX remains a cash-generative business, with management actively returning capital to shareholders through buybacks and exploring ways to improve its FCF profile. DBX is not able to compete effectively, especially in a challenging macro environment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 02

Dropbox: A Buyout Might Save This From The Stall Warning (Technical Analysis)

Summary Lyn Alden is neutral on Dropbox, citing stalled revenue growth but noting it's priced cheaply and could be an acquisition target. Our methodology focuses on human behavioral patterns in price structures, differing from traditional technical analysis. Current Dropbox chart analysis suggests a bearish scenario, with potential downside plays and risk defined by recent highs. Embrace our unique approach to market analysis for reliable guidance and risk management in trading and investing. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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새로운 내러티브 • Aug 27

Expanding Into AI With Dash Could Spur Growth Amidst Team Segment Struggles And Margin Pressures

Enhanced features like AI-enabled Dash and FSS encryption aim to boost revenue by attracting new users and retaining existing ones.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 12

After Earnings Beat, Dropbox Growth Is Worth Keeping An Eye On

Summary Dropbox has seen slowing growth, but beat earnings estimates last week and reported 18.22 million paying users. The company offers various premium services related to data storage and sharing, investing in AI technology for a competitive advantage. Dropbox's balance sheet shows negative shareholder equity, but manageable debt with potential for growth if user conversion to paid services continues. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 06

Dropbox: The Growth Engine Has Sputtered (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Dropbox's stock has dropped over 20% this year, with slowing growth and disappointing Q1 results. The company cited conversion issues at the top of its funnel, stemming from its decision to focus on middle-priced SKU tiers. Q1 revenue growth not only decelerated sharply and declined sequentially from Q4, but also lagged several points behind rival Box's growth rate. The only positive offsets for Dropbox are a rich operating margin (~37%) and a cheap FCF multiple, but growth issues will likely keep the stock from re-rating to a normalized multiple. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

이익 및 매출 성장 예측

NasdaqGS:DBX - 애널리스트 향후 추정치 및 과거 재무 데이터 (USD Millions)
날짜매출이익자유현금흐름영업현금흐름평균 애널리스트 수
12/31/20282,502458N/A9802
12/31/20272,4964319929787
12/31/20262,5094219509187
3/31/20262,5264739801,003N/A
12/31/20252,521508930952N/A
9/30/20252,528503916930N/A
6/30/20252,533485892902N/A
3/31/20252,542470858872N/A
12/31/20242,548452871894N/A
9/30/20242,540577851881N/A
6/30/20242,534584828862N/A
3/31/20242,522517787819N/A
12/31/20232,502454759784N/A
9/30/20232,465555750778N/A
6/30/20232,423524748774N/A
3/31/20232,374543770796N/A
12/31/20222,325553762797N/A
9/30/20222,292350736765N/A
6/30/20222,251342713746N/A
3/31/20222,209368723756N/A
12/31/20212,158336701730N/A
9/30/20212,097-135705738N/A
6/30/20212,034-177670707N/A
3/31/20211,971-248574633N/A
12/31/20201,914-256491571N/A
9/30/20201,85683492587N/A
6/30/20201,79733407536N/A
3/31/20201,731-6383519N/A
12/31/20191,661-53N/A529N/A
9/30/20191,591-56N/A465N/A
6/30/20191,523-44N/A444N/A
3/31/20191,461-27N/A427N/A
12/31/20181,392-485N/A425N/A
9/30/20181,321-513N/A373N/A
6/30/20181,248-521N/A356N/A
3/31/20181,175-544N/A331N/A
12/31/20171,107-112N/A330N/A
9/30/20171,039-103N/A325N/A
6/30/2017974-132N/A280N/A
3/31/2017900-174N/A254N/A
12/31/2016845-210N/A253N/A
12/31/2015604-326N/A15N/A

애널리스트 향후 성장 전망

수입 대 저축률: DBX 의 연간 예상 수익 증가율(0.7%)이 saving rate(3.5%) 미만입니다.

수익 vs 시장: DBX 의 연간 수익(0.7%)이 US 시장(17.1%)보다 느리게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.

고성장 수익: DBX 의 수입은 증가할 것으로 예상되지만 상당히 증가하지는 않을 것입니다.

수익 대 시장: DBX 의 수익은 향후 3년간 감소할 것으로 예상됩니다(연간 -0.5%).

고성장 매출: DBX 의 수익은 향후 3년 동안 감소할 것으로 예상됩니다(연간 -0.5%).

주당순이익 성장 예측

향후 자기자본이익률

미래 ROE: DBX의 자본 수익률은 3년 후 270.5%로 매우 높을 것으로 예상됩니다.

성장 기업 찾아보기

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

기업 분석 및 재무 데이터 상태

데이터최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간)
기업 분석2026/06/05 23:03
종가2026/06/05 00:00
수익2026/03/31
연간 수익2025/12/31

데이터 소스

당사의 기업 분석에 사용되는 데이터는 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC에서 제공됩니다. 아래 데이터는 이 보고서를 생성하기 위해 분석 모델에서 사용됩니다. 데이터는 정규화되므로 소스가 제공된 후 지연이 발생할 수 있습니다.

패키지데이터기간미국 소스 예시 *
기업 재무제표10년
  • 손익계산서
  • 현금흐름표
  • 대차대조표
분석가 컨센서스 추정치+3년
  • 재무 예측
  • 분석가 목표주가
시장 가격30년
  • 주가
  • 배당, 분할 및 기타 조치
지분 구조10년
  • 주요 주주
  • 내부자 거래
경영진10년
  • 리더십 팀
  • 이사회
주요 개발10년
  • 회사 공시

* 미국 증권에 대한 예시이며, 비(非)미국 증권에는 해당 국가의 규제 서식 및 자료원을 사용합니다.

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산업 및 섹터 지표

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분석가 소스

Dropbox, Inc.는 21명의 분석가가 다루고 있습니다. 이 중 7명의 분석가가 우리 보고서에 입력 데이터로 사용되는 매출 또는 수익 추정치를 제출했습니다. 분석가의 제출 자료는 하루 종일 업데이트됩니다.

분석가기관
Edward MagiBerenberg
Zane ChraneBernstein
Matthew BullockBofA Global Research