Triumph Group, Inc.

NYSE:TGI 주식 리포트

시가총액: US$2.0b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Triumph Group 향후 성장

Future 기준 점검 4/6

Triumph Group (는) 각각 연간 36.5% 및 7.3% 수익과 수익이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. EPS는 연간 35.3% 만큼 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다. 자기자본이익률은 3년 후 112% 로 예상됩니다.

핵심 정보

36.5%

이익 성장률

35.27%

EPS 성장률

Aerospace & Defense 이익 성장18.8%
매출 성장률7.3%
향후 자기자본이익률112.05%
애널리스트 커버리지

Good

마지막 업데이트16 Jul 2025

최근 향후 성장 업데이트

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Feb 04

Triumph Group Acquired: Fair Price And Up 80% Since Buy Rating

Summary Triumph Group shareholders will receive $26 per share in cash, valuing the company at approximately $2.9 billion. My valuation model predicted a fair price of $25.73 per share, making the $26 offer more than fair with a 34% premium. Triumph Group will be bought at an 80% premium compared to my buy rating from March 2024. Given the company's debt challenges and aerospace exposure, the $26 per share buyout is a good deal, with a $0.87 spread to the current trading price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 14

Triumph Group Stock Only Has Appeal As An Aerospace Acquisition Target

Summary Triumph Group stock has gained 33% since August, but debt challenges remain significant, with $959 million maturing in 2028 and insufficient free cash flow. Q2 2025 saw flat sales year-on-year, with improved margins due to higher aftermarket sales, but commercial OEM sales declined, impacting overall growth. The company's debt load pressures its financial stability, with limited options to meet obligations without selling assets, diluting shareholders, or refinancing debt. While a strategic acquisition could provide upside, TGI stock remains a hold based on current fundamentals and debt servicing challenges. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
분석 기사 • Nov 07

The Market Lifts Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE:TGI) Shares 27% But It Can Do More

Triumph Group, Inc. ( NYSE:TGI ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 27

Triumph Group: I Am Downgrading This Aerospace Underperformer

Summary Triumph Group's Q1 2025 results show limited sales growth due to supply chain issues and production rate pressures, impacting working capital and free cash flow generation. The company's debt remains high at $959 million, with a significant cash burn of $113 million, necessitating refinancing or capital raises. Free cash flow guidance for 2025 is underwhelming, significantly lower than previous estimates, highlighting the need for improved FCF conversion and debt management. Given the financial challenges and limited upside, I am downgrading Triumph Group stock to Hold, with a price target of $15.95. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 05

Triumph Group Stock: Lower Debt And Leverage Provides A More Compelling Value Proposition

Summary Triumph Group has sold a business unit to reduce its debt and avoid diluting shareholders. The company's cash generation and cash pile were not sufficient to cover its maturing debt. The debt reduction has improved Triumph Group's financial position and makes its stock more attractive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
분석 기사 • Mar 26

Triumph Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:TGI) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking

You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x Triumph Group, Inc. ( NYSE:TGI ) is a stock worth...
분석 기사 • Nov 09

Return Trends At Triumph Group (NYSE:TGI) Aren't Appealing

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 24

Triumph Group: An Uphill Battle Against A Pile Of Debt

Summary Triumph Group stock has lost over 40% of its value. The stock price decline is driven by the exercise of warrants, diluting shareholders by 17.2%. Triumph Group's free cash flow is inadequate to pay off its $500 million debt due in 2025 and $1.2 billion due in 2028, requiring costly refinancing or further shareholder dilution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
분석 기사 • Aug 04

Earnings Working Against Triumph Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:TGI) Share Price Following 26% Dive

Triumph Group, Inc. ( NYSE:TGI ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 03

Triumph Is Cheap: The Stock Decline Cannot Really Be Explained

Summary Triumph Group's recent quarterly results did not justify the significant decline in its stock price in my view. The company's new product lines, including fueldraulic actuators and thermal systems, are expected to drive future net sales growth. Despite concerns about debt, management expects positive free cash flow growth and announced a small divestiture, indicating potential for higher valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 09

Triumph Group: Upside Catalyst Expected From Achieving FY25 Target

Summary Triumph Group plans to double its EBITDA from FY22 to FY25, driven by increased volumes, improved contract pricing, and the exit of loss-making programs. The Systems and Support segment is expected to grow, fueled by the recovery of commercial travel, while the Commercial Aero backlog provides visibility for near-term growth. TGI stock deserves to trade at a premium to peers, given it is expected to grow much faster than peers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
분석 기사 • Jul 07

Triumph Group (NYSE:TGI) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things...
Seeking Alpha • Jun 08

Triumph Group: Bright Aerospace Prospects, Little Value Upside For The Stock

Summary Triumph Group, Inc. is seeing promising margin expansion and industry forecasts for airplane production. This might be a stock you regret buying years from now. Current projections for Triumph Group stock, however, don't justify a buy due to its debt load. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
분석 기사 • May 09

Calculating The Fair Value Of Triumph Group, Inc. (NYSE:TGI)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Triumph Group fair value estimate is US$12.46 Triumph Group's...
분석 기사 • Mar 13

The Returns At Triumph Group (NYSE:TGI) Aren't Growing

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 08

Triumph Group: Concerns On Pension And Refinancing

Summary TGI has upcoming debt maturities and pension contributions as pressing issues. Management guided to positive FCF expected in FY23. It would be wiser to stay neutral or take a small position and wait for refinancing activities to clear before sizing up. Summary As a whole, I don't see any major changes to the strength of the equity story for Triumph Group (TGI) as a result of 3Q23 earnings. There hasn't been much of a shift in the long-term story, with FCF continuing to serve as key metric. However, TGI's upcoming debt maturities and pension contributions are the most pressing issues. The current rates environment needs to improve so that management can take advantage of refinancing opportunities; otherwise, there may be short-term headwinds at the bottom line. Therefore, while I am optimistic about the long-term growth story, it is prudent to stay neutral or hold only a small position today until the fog of uncertainty (refinancing) lifts. Earnings overview Nearly 30% of Systems & Support revenue in 3Q23 came from commercial MRO, up 59% year-over-year. Notably, the $83 million in revenue represents a sustainable increase from the $60 million and $63 million in Q1 and Q2 respectively. In addition, as travel is on the upswing, which, combined with a shortage of new planes, is driving up aftermarket demand. Suppose imply 20%+ growth in commercial MRO in FY23. Also, commercial OEM sales were up 18% on higher production rates, which is in line with growth trends seen in the first half of the year thanks to a one-time sale of IP. The Interiors division of Structures saw minor profitability. The Aerospace Structures segment generated $44 million in revenues, with an adj EBITDA margin of 13%. This figure included $7 million in non-recurring revenues and $4 million in profits. However, in the next few quarters, this one-time revenue will begin to taper off. In my opinion, the increased production of 787s and the narrowbody ramp will drive both revenue and profit. Backlog The total backlog for TGI dropped by 18% y/y to $1.59 billion, but 3Q23 saw a 21% increase in bookings, to $400 million, for a book-to-bill ratio of 1.21x. About 45 percent of wins in this quarter (~$130 million) were tied to either new products or customers. Relatively to consensus, the estimated $1.03 billion backlog that will be shipped within the next 12 months represents a sizable portion of consensus estimate (which means it is unlikely to miss). TGI, in my opinion, will be able to support its expansion by broadening its exposure to new platforms and customers. One primary method of accomplishing this goal is by persistently seeking out opportunities to perform OE and MRO on military platforms. Recent successes are promising because they show no sign of slowing. Systems and Support Revenue grew by 21% on an organic basis in 3Q23 as narrowbody volumes with the Military stabilized. Specifically, there was a rise of 19% in sales of Commercial OE and a rise of 59% in sales of MRO. The uptick in international flight hours was the primary factor in MRO expansion. The military saw a decline in volumes of 1% year over year, but a rise of 5% quarter over quarter. Overall, I expect this segment to continue growing strongly as the commercial aero business continues to improve, and management has previously laid out a framework for 18-22% growth in FY23. In terms of profitability, adj EBITDA margins rose to 17.5%, a slight increase of 20bps. Profitability varied by quarter due to fluctuations in the sale of military spares, but management is confident that rising narrowbody volumes will eventually boost the bottom line. Management's long-term goal is to achieve low-to-mid 20% margins in Systems and Support by the year 2025. As TGI continues its transition to narrowbody aircraft, I am confident that they will be able to achieve this goal, which will aid in the gradual increase of EBITDA. FCF TGT has announced that they expect higher FCF in FY23, with a midpoint of -$60m. This translates to an implied $65 million FCF in 4Q23 (FY23 guidance - 9M23 FCF), which is mainly driven by working capital and inventory management. I expect TGI's FCF to remain in positive territory going forward as the company maintains positive EBITDA growth based on its long-term framework and improves its working capital management. CY24 refinancing
Seeking Alpha • Jan 31

Triumph Q3 2023 Earnings Preview

Triumph (NYSE:TGI) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Wednesday, February 1st, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.11 (-47.6% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $308.13M (-3.5% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, TGI has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 7 upward revisions and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 2 downward.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 25

Triumph secures door actuation contract from Airbus

Triumph Group's (NYSE:TGI) Actuation Products and Services business has been awarded a contract from Airbus to provide A220 On Wing Emergency Exit Door (OWEED) control cables. The multi-year contract will be performed in Shelbyville, Indiana.  "Building upon our long-term relationship with Airbus and providing support throughout the product lifecycle, this award is a testament to our continued commitment to servicing our valued customers. The OWEED cable is just one of the many solutions TRIUMPH provides to Airbus and we are delighted to further strengthen our relationship with this contract extension," said Mike Boland, President of TRIUMPH Actuation Products & Services.

이익 및 매출 성장 예측

NYSE:TGI - 애널리스트 향후 추정치 및 과거 재무 데이터 (USD Millions)
날짜매출이익자유현금흐름영업현금흐름평균 애널리스트 수
3/31/20281,5801461341554
3/31/20271,4711181171466
3/31/20261,38498691025
3/31/20251,262361938N/A
12/31/20241,24313-53-32N/A
9/30/20241,212-13-63-38N/A
6/30/20241,209-32-55-31N/A
3/31/20241,192-34-129N/A
12/31/20231,159-64-33-8N/A
9/30/20231,136-47-60-36N/A
6/30/20231,04561-47-23N/A
3/31/20231,13172-73-52N/A
12/31/20221,19286-95-79N/A
9/30/20221,24988-83-64N/A
6/30/20221,413-23-101-81N/A
3/31/20221,263-50-157-137N/A
12/31/20211,540-106-169-147N/A
9/30/20211,647-181-139-119N/A
6/30/20211,771-205-145-125N/A
3/31/20211,870-451-198-173N/A
12/31/20202,096-453-170-138N/A
9/30/20202,375-398-168-132N/A
6/30/20202,665-322-145-106N/A
3/31/20202,900-295797N/A
12/31/20193,076-1541858N/A
9/30/20193,179-171-2812N/A
6/30/20193,262-228-147-104N/A
3/31/20193,365-327-222-174N/A
12/31/20183,393-427N/A-284N/A
9/30/20183,360-509N/A-187N/A
6/30/20183,250-500N/A-256N/A
3/31/20183,199-425N/A-289N/A
12/31/20173,222-247N/A256N/A
9/30/20173,292-105N/A114N/A
6/30/20173,421-65N/A267N/A
3/31/20173,533-43N/A282N/A
12/31/20163,671-1,000N/A86N/A
9/30/20163,740-1,118N/A131N/A
6/30/20163,820-1,091N/A148N/A
3/31/20163,886-1,048N/A84N/A
12/31/20153,909119N/A-17N/A
9/30/20153,912167N/A30N/A
6/30/20153,951173N/A371N/A
3/31/20153,889239N/A467N/A
12/31/20143,745198N/A412N/A
9/30/20143,743273N/A350N/A

애널리스트 향후 성장 전망

수입 대 저축률: TGI 의 연간 예상 수익 증가율(36.5%)이 saving rate(2.9%)보다 높습니다.

수익 vs 시장: TGI 의 연간 수익(36.5%)이 US 시장(16.8%)보다 빠르게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.

고성장 수익: TGI 의 수입은 향후 3년 동안 상당히 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

수익 대 시장: TGI 의 수익(연간 7.3%)이 US 시장(연간 11.7%)보다 느리게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.

고성장 매출: TGI 의 수익(연간 7.3%)은 연간 20%보다 느리게 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

주당순이익 성장 예측

향후 자기자본이익률

미래 ROE: TGI의 자본 수익률은 3년 후 112%로 매우 높을 것으로 예상됩니다.

성장 기업 찾아보기

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

기업 분석 및 재무 데이터 상태

데이터최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간)
기업 분석2025/07/24 05:07
종가2025/07/24 00:00
수익2025/03/31
연간 수익2025/03/31

데이터 소스

당사의 기업 분석에 사용되는 데이터는 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC에서 제공됩니다. 아래 데이터는 이 보고서를 생성하기 위해 분석 모델에서 사용됩니다. 데이터는 정규화되므로 소스가 제공된 후 지연이 발생할 수 있습니다.

패키지데이터기간미국 소스 예시 *
기업 재무제표10년
  • 손익계산서
  • 현금흐름표
  • 대차대조표
분석가 컨센서스 추정치+3년
  • 재무 예측
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시장 가격30년
  • 주가
  • 배당, 분할 및 기타 조치
지분 구조10년
  • 주요 주주
  • 내부자 거래
경영진10년
  • 리더십 팀
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주요 개발10년
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* 미국 증권에 대한 예시이며, 비(非)미국 증권에는 해당 국가의 규제 서식 및 자료원을 사용합니다.

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분석가 소스

Triumph Group, Inc.는 18명의 분석가가 다루고 있습니다. 이 중 6명의 분석가가 우리 보고서에 입력 데이터로 사용되는 매출 또는 수익 추정치를 제출했습니다. 분석가의 제출 자료는 하루 종일 업데이트됩니다.

분석가기관
Peter ArmentBaird
Kenneth HerbertCanaccord Genuity
J. B. GrohD.A. Davidson & Co.