American Airlines Group Inc.

NasdaqGS:AAL 株式レポート

時価総額：US$8.0b

American Airlines Group 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /46

American Airlines Group利益と収益がそれぞれ年間46.2%と5.2%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に215.2% 47.3%なると予測されています。

主要情報

46.2%

収益成長率

47.30%

EPS成長率

Airlines 収益成長14.4%
収益成長率5.2%
将来の株主資本利益率215.16%
アナリストカバレッジ

Good

最終更新日19 May 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

Recent updates

新しいナラティブ • May 19

AAL: Engineering the Global Premium Network Pivot toward the Realization of a Sustainable Operational Deleveraging Inflection Point

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), the world’s largest airline by fleet size and a critical architect of the domestic hub and spoke model, is navigating a high stakes structural recovery in 2026.
ナラティブの更新 • May 01

AAL: Higher Fuel Costs Will Constrain Margins And Future Earnings Flexibility

The analyst fair value estimate for American Airlines Group has shifted from $12.68 to $10.00. This reflects how recent Street research has been recalibrating revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and future P/E expectations in light of higher fuel costs and mixed price target changes across firms.
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 17

AAL: Fuel Resilience And Demand Strength Will Support Future Margin Execution

Narrative Update on American Airlines Group The updated analyst price target for American Airlines Group reflects a modest reset in fair value to $14.94, as analysts factor in higher fuel cost assumptions alongside relatively steady expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples across recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research around American Airlines Group has centered on resetting price targets to reflect higher fuel cost assumptions, with views split between those focused on demand resilience and those emphasizing margin pressure and balance of risks.
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 03

AAL: Fuel Cost Headwinds Will Test Rebounding Demand And Margin Execution

Analysts have trimmed the fair value estimate for American Airlines Group to $15.40 from $16.40. This reflects a reset in price targets as higher fuel cost assumptions temper P/E expectations, even as revenue growth and profit margin forecasts are revised modestly upward.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 21

American Airlines: Back In The Game

Summary American Airlines delivered a major Q1'26 guide-up, projecting revenue up 10% and a loss per share far better than consensus. AAL demonstrates resilience, absorbing $400M in higher fuel costs and outperforming expectations despite geopolitical and commodity headwinds. The airlines continues to drive the updated loyalty program towards $1.5B in additional pre-tax income by 2030, roughly double current levels. The stock trades at just 5x EPS targets that should reach $2, a valuation deeply discounted versus peers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 19

AAL: Revenue Initiatives And Demand Trends Are Expected To Offset Fuel Risks

Analysts have adjusted the fair value estimate for American Airlines Group to $22.00 from $21.00, as updated research reflects slightly higher revenue growth assumptions, a modestly lower discount rate, and a future P/E of about 8.1x, partly balanced by ongoing fuel cost concerns across recent Street reports. Analyst Commentary Street research on American Airlines Group over recent months has been mixed, with many firms revisiting estimates as fuel assumptions shift.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 05

AAL: Fuel Costs And Capacity Pressures Will Temper Execution Upside Potential

The latest analyst price target reset for American Airlines Group reflects a mix of higher Street targets and fresh caution on fuel and capacity. Our updated fair value is anchored at about $12.68 as analysts balance expectations for margin improvement against risks from rising costs and crowded domestic routes.
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 19

AAL: Execution And Regulatory Setbacks Will Likely Cap Earnings Repricing Potential

The latest analyst price target update for American Airlines Group reflects a modest adjustment. Fair value has moved slightly to $12.68 as analysts factor in updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower discount rate supported by a series of recent target revisions and broader Q4 and 2026 outlooks for the airline group.
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 05

AAL: Execution And Regulatory Risks Will Likely Restrain Margin-Driven Repricing

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for American Airlines Group higher to about US$12.69 from roughly US$10.81, citing Street research that points to stronger revenue initiatives, improving margin potential, and a recalibration of future P/E expectations across the airline group. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on American Airlines Group has been mixed, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they reassess revenue potential, cost trends, and the outlook for sector earnings over the next couple of years.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 22

AAL: Revenue Initiatives And Demand Momentum Are Expected To Support Upside

Analysts have lifted their implied price target for American Airlines Group to $21.00 from $18.74, citing higher modeled revenue growth, a slightly higher discount rate, a modestly lower profit margin assumption, and a richer future P/E multiple that reflect recent Street research highlighting revenue initiatives, demand momentum into 2026, and supportive industry commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has tilted more constructive on American Airlines Group, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets and revising their views to reflect what they see as a healthier setup into 2026.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 08

AAL: Rebounding Demand And Cost Actions Will Shape Measured Earnings Progress

Narrative Update: American Airlines Group The updated analyst price target for American Airlines Group increases to about US$16.40 from US$15.35, with analysts pointing to slightly higher assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as they refresh their views following recent sector research and Q4 earnings previews. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on American Airlines Group centers on refreshed Q4 earnings previews and updated 2026 outlooks, with several firms adjusting their price targets and reaffirming views on the stock.
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 29

The "Big Four" Dominance

1. Fundamental Moat: The "Big Four" Dominance American Airlines is a cornerstone of the US "Big Four" legacy carriers.
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 23

AAL: Rising Execution Risks Will Likely Cap Upside Amid Industry Shift

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on American Airlines Group, reflecting a fair value increase from roughly $9.00 to about $10.80 per share as they factor in improving revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and higher industry price targets from recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on American Airlines Group reflects a cautiously constructive but uneven backdrop, with a mix of higher price targets and restrained ratings that underscore lingering concerns around execution and competitive positioning.
分析記事 • Dec 23

Even With A 26% Surge, Cautious Investors Are Not Rewarding American Airlines Group Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAL) Performance Completely

American Airlines Group Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAL ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last...
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 09

AAL: Demand And Fare Tailwinds Will Support Gradual Earnings And Risk Rebalancing

American Airlines Group's fair value estimate has been modestly increased to $15.35 from $15.07, reflecting analysts' higher price targets, now as high as $20, supported by expectations of improving demand, firmer fare trends, and a more favorable long term earnings outlook for select U.S. carriers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a constructive but selective stance on American Airlines, with multiple price target increases signaling improved confidence in the companys medium term earnings power and balance of risk and reward.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 25

AAL: Sustained Demand And Pricing Momentum Will Drive Margin Expansion Ahead

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for American Airlines Group, reflecting greater confidence in the company's slight improvements in revenue growth and profit margin. The fair value estimate has risen from $15.02 to $15.07 based on updated industry outlooks and recent positive demand and pricing trends.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 08

AAL: Industry Shifts And Expense Pressures Will Shape Fair Value Outlook

American Airlines Group's analyst price target has increased from $14.55 to $15.02. This reflects moderate optimism among analysts amid encouraging industry trends and updated financial estimates.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 25

Industry Transformation And Demand Shifts Will Shape Airline Performance Ahead

American Airlines Group’s analyst price target has increased from $14.23 to $14.55. Analysts cite improved demand, positive fare trends, and continued industry transformation as key drivers for the upward revision.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 11

Domestic Recovery And Upgraded Fleet Will Sustain Future Success

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for American Airlines Group from $13.88 to $14.23, citing recent improvements in profit margins and resilient demand trends within the broader airline sector. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst evaluations have reflected both optimism and caution regarding American Airlines Group.
ナラティブの更新 • Sep 27

Domestic Recovery And Upgraded Fleet Will Sustain Future Success

The consensus analyst price target for American Airlines Group has been revised upward to $13.88, as improving demand and fare trends offset cost pressures and drive more optimistic long-term earnings forecasts, though valuation concerns and peer competition remain headwinds. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note improving demand and fare trends that are helping offset modest cost pressures in the airline sector.
ナラティブの更新 • Sep 22

American Airlines is the ugly duckling in the US airlines industry

American aims to improve yields by doubling down on Premium Economy I wouldn't go so far as to change my general description of American Airlines as one of the most precarious legacy carriers out there, completely at the mercy of its creditors and, thus, benign refinancing conditions. Yet not only does the latter stand to materialise now that the Fed has restarted to cut interest rates; American also aims to double down just on the right lever to improve its business operationally.
ナラティブの更新 • Sep 12

Domestic Recovery And Upgraded Fleet Will Sustain Future Success

Analysts cite a more balanced risk/reward profile and less favorable competitive trends versus peers as reasons for their caution on American Airlines, resulting in only a modest price target increase from $13.43 to $13.58. Analyst Commentary Valuation concerns as the stock has approached its prior $14 price target.
分析記事 • Aug 01

American Airlines Group's (NASDAQ:AAL) Earnings May Just Be The Starting Point

American Airlines Group Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:AAL ) earnings announcement last week was disappointing for investors, despite...
分析記事 • Jul 14

When Should You Buy American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL)?

American Airlines Group Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAL ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 25

American Airlines: Rating Downgrade On Huge Debt

Summary American Airlines posted a Q1 loss due to soft domestic demand and increased regional airline costs, despite stable revenues year-on-year. The company has pulled its full-year guidance, citing significant uncertainty and weak domestic market conditions impacting main cabin bookings. American Airlines faces a huge debt load, expected to reach $35 billion by 2027, leading to a downgrade from strong buy to speculative buy. The stock is undervalued, but carries significant risk due to operational challenges and high debt, with a revised price target of $18.65. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 28

American Airlines: Industry Profits Will Fall Until Consolidation Limits Competition

Summary Although American Airlines has fallen by around 40% from its recent peak, its enterprise value is down only around 11-12%. Like most large airlines, American has seen its operating margins compress in the long run due to excessive supply and demand competition over the past decade. Of the largest four US Airlines, American likely has the highest risk of bankruptcy in a recession event, mitigated by the potential for government intervention or a merger. Recent economic data show that air travel demand has stagnated and may decline, given the sharp decline in consumer economic stability. I would avoid most airline stocks as long-term investments until the industry faces a consolidation wave that limits excessive competition among the 'Big Four.' Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
新しいナラティブ • Mar 20

American Airlines is the ugly duckling in the US airlines industry

There's a single reason why American is the least attractive of US legacy carriers (in terms of investing, anyway): its balance sheet.If most airlines and certainly those in the US are loaded up to th
Seeking Alpha • Mar 13

American Airlines' Stock Is Losing Altitude - Here's Why I'm Short

Summary I believe American Airlines’ lowered Q1 guidance signals deeper demand issues, extending beyond leisure into corporate travel, making me skeptical of a quick rebound in 2025. I anticipate that tariffs and government cost-cutting initiatives will hit business travel, a key profit driver for the airline. I find AAL’s price action weak, with the next historical support nearly 25% below current levels. I bought September 2025 $11 puts early on the March 11 session when IV was reasonable. Now, I wouldn’t enter a position at current IV levels considering the 5.5% selloff. I caution that any shift in tariff policies could drive a reversal in price direction, making this a high-risk bet. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 21

American Airlines: Only The Start

Summary American Airlines Group Inc.'s Q4 results highlight significant improvements in financials despite ongoing headwinds. The expanded AAdvantage loyalty program with Citigroup is set to nearly double pre-tax income over ~5 years. Despite higher debt and new union costs, American Airlines forecasts strong free cash flow and EPS growth in 2025. Investors should consider the current dip to $15 as a solid entry point, with the stock trading at only 5x 2026 EPS targets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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新しいナラティブ • Feb 15

New Citi Partnership And Fleet Expansion Will Boost Customer Experience And Demand

New contracts and partnerships improve cost certainty and revenue, boosting margins and profitability.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 24

Why Did American Airlines Stock Drop After Q4 Earnings?

Summary American Airlines reported strong Q4 earnings, driven by lower fuel costs, but saw an 8.7% stock drop due to a soft 2025 EPS outlook. Despite the drop, AAL stock has gained 14.4% since hitting my $17.85 price target, and I now see a potential $22.87 target. The company plans to reduce debt by $4 billion by FY2027, focusing less on shareholder returns compared to peers like United and Delta. Given the 36% discount to peers and expected earnings growth, American Airlines is a strong buy, despite higher risks from leverage and capital expenditures. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

American Airlines: Operating Margins Are Improving, But Now 'Priced For Perfection'

Summary American Airlines Group Inc. is expected to see significant EPS growth in Q4, driven by lower fuel costs, strong holiday travel demand, and lower labor and capital cost pressures. Spirit Airlines' failure has likely eased labor and capital cost pressures across the industry, benefiting AAL's profit margins and competitive position. Despite recent stock gains, AAL's high debt load and potential risks from rising fuel prices and economic slowdown warrant a cautious outlook. AAL's current valuation seems overly optimistic, with potential downside risks outweighing rewards, leading to a slightly bearish long-term view. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 03

American Airlines Is Poised To Continue Its Ascent

Summary U.S. airline stocks saw significant stock growth in 2025 with American Airlines outperforming in December 2024. AAL's strategic focus on the southern U.S. and premium domestic travel, coupled with a new exclusive credit card partnership, supports future revenue growth. AAL's fleet modernization, including the Airbus A321XLR, and strong transatlantic joint ventures position it well for international expansion. AAL is addressing its high debt and has recently settled with its flight attendant union. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 25

American Airlines: No Bankruptcy Fear, But I Watch The Debt Load

Summary Airline stocks are volatile; American Airlines struggles with long-term value but offers short-term gains for risk-takers, evidenced by recent stock performance. Q2 results show modest revenue growth but declining unit revenues and rising controllable costs, pressuring operating margins. The 2024 outlook predicts further margin pressure due to higher costs and declining unit revenues, despite capacity increases. Maintaining a buy rating, but American Airlines' significant debt and long-term debt management remain critical concerns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 19

American Airlines: Earnings Tailwind Expected While Debt Picture Improves

Summary American Airlines gets buy rating as continued strong travel demand expected to fuel further revenue growth in near future, helping earnings. Although having a negative equity, the firm is showing signs of reducing its debt load, which could help reduce interest expenses in the future. The airline is #3 in US market share and has over 900 aircraft as well as many global destinations, fueling its brand presence and reputation. With its valuation mixed but trading well below its 1 year highs, it presents an interesting opportunity for upside potential. The future impact of a potential recession on travel spending has calmed down since recent analyses point to lower likelihood of a recession. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 13

American Airlines: Look Past S&P 500 Exit

Summary American Airlines is being removed from the S&P 500 despite a forecasted profit rebound, presenting a buying opportunity near COVID lows. Historical data shows stocks often rally after exiting major indexes. Recent examples include Comerica and Illumina. Industry improvements are evident with Delta, JetBlue, and Alaska Airlines guiding up numbers, benefiting American Airlines' future performance. American Airlines' revised sales strategy should boost profits, aiming for $3 EPS by 2025/26, making current stock valuations attractive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 26

American Airlines: 2025 Refinancing Risks Grow As Air Travel Demand Peaks

Summary American Airlines stock has declined by 35% since March, while short interest on it has risen to 12.7%, indicating hedge funds or speculators may be betting on continued declines. AAL's financial stability is at risk due to high debt, declining profitability, and a potential decline in airline demand. To me, this makes it the least solvent US airline after Spirit. I expect AAL's operating margins to continue to slide, with recession risks potentially exacerbating negative headwinds in 2025. American Airlines' refinancing risks appear high, with over $4B in current LT debt maturities and negative free cash flow. AAL's stability will likely depend on Federal Reserve stimulus, with significant rate cuts potentially necessary to carry it through its refinancing pressures. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 11

American Airlines: Underperformance Continues As Growth Is Sputtering (Rating Upgrade)

Summary American Airlines stock underperformed the index by over 75% since my Strong Sell rating last year. Company fundamentals remain weak with flat revenues and a challenged balance sheet. If this is how the performance and the financials look in a "good" environment I hate to think how this will turn out if we actually realize a recession. At its present levels the valuation is fair and rating the stock as a Hold. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

業績と収益の成長予測

NasdaqGS:AAL - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/202867,7021,7761,2095,47416
12/31/202764,4951,4094154,82921
12/31/202662,295-6974,57120
3/31/202655,9942021,1004,866N/A
12/31/202554,633111-6803,099N/A
9/30/202554,2946028823,771N/A
6/30/202554,2505671,5634,094N/A
3/31/202554,1926851,5764,259N/A
12/31/202454,2118461,3003,983N/A
9/30/202453,613275-5522,234N/A
6/30/202453,448-121-8122,015N/A
3/31/202453,169500-2652,650N/A
12/31/202352,7888221,2073,803N/A
9/30/202352,9141,6062,5574,996N/A
6/30/202352,8942,6341,9604,345N/A
3/31/202352,2611,7722,0774,321N/A
12/31/202248,971127-3732,173N/A
9/30/202245,210-1,608-1,0061,131N/A
6/30/202240,717-1,921-1,756-16N/A
3/31/202234,773-2,3785381,715N/A
12/31/202129,882-1,993496704N/A
9/30/202124,483-3,239-1,415-959N/A
6/30/202118,686-5,808-2,798-1,823N/A
3/31/202112,830-7,894-7,529-6,201N/A
12/31/202017,337-8,885-8,674-6,543N/A
9/30/202024,622-6,293-6,029-3,080N/A
6/30/202033,361-3,469-2,826352N/A
3/31/202043,699-740-1,8121,996N/A
12/31/201945,7681,686N/A3,815N/A
9/30/201945,3931,596N/A3,931N/A
6/30/201945,0411,543N/A3,026N/A
3/31/201944,7241,438N/A3,384N/A
12/31/201844,5411,412N/A3,533N/A
9/30/201844,214505N/A3,254N/A
6/30/201843,619794N/A3,700N/A
3/31/201843,2031,101N/A4,294N/A
12/31/201742,6221,282N/A4,744N/A
9/30/201741,8002,154N/A4,934N/A
6/30/201741,4292,230N/A5,629N/A
3/31/201740,5652,316N/A6,154N/A
12/31/201640,1422,584N/A6,524N/A
9/30/201640,0215,668N/A6,125N/A
6/30/201640,1346,624N/A6,241N/A
3/31/201640,5987,378N/A6,375N/A
12/31/201540,9907,610N/A6,249N/A
9/30/201541,5204,926N/A6,825N/A
6/30/201541,9534,175N/A5,284N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: AALの予測収益成長率 (年間46.2% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 3.5% ) を上回っています。

収益対市場: AALの収益 ( 46.2% ) はUS市場 ( 16.8% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高成長収益: AALの収益は今後 3 年間で 大幅に 増加すると予想されています。

収益対市場: AALの収益 ( 5.2% ) US市場 ( 11.6% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。

高い収益成長: AALの収益 ( 5.2% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: AALの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には非常に高くなると予測されています ( 215.2 %)。

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/20 10:35
終値2026/05/20 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

American Airlines Group Inc. 21 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。40

アナリスト機関
John StaszakArgus Research Company
Brandon OglenskiBarclays
Brandon OglenskiBarclays