Shopify Inc.

NasdaqGS:SHOP 株式レポート

時価総額：US$140.8b

Shopify 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /46

Shopify利益と収益がそれぞれ年間28.1%と19.2%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に19.5% 28.3%なると予測されています。

主要情報

28.1%

収益成長率

28.29%

EPS成長率

IT 収益成長22.5%
収益成長率19.2%
将来の株主資本利益率19.47%
アナリストカバレッジ

Good

最終更新日12 Jun 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

分析記事 • May 07

Shopify Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a sad week for Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$105 in the week...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jun 06

The SaaS Apocalypse Has Created A Rare Buying Opportunity In Shopify

Summary Shopify is upgraded to a buy, offering a rare entry after a 10% pullback despite continued strong execution. SHOP's aggressive adoption of agentic AI and deep customer integration position it as a long-term beneficiary, challenging Amazon's e-commerce dominance. Recent results show 34% YoY revenue growth, a 22% incremental operating margin, and a pristine net cash balance, supporting sustained market share gains. Valuation at 61x earnings is not cheap, but projected 10% annual returns and margin expansion make SHOP a compelling compounder for growth portfolios. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブの更新 • Jun 04

SHOP: AI Commerce Infrastructure And Buybacks Will Support Higher Earnings Power

Shopify's updated analyst price target has moved lower to about $198 from roughly $218, as analysts factor in slightly softer revenue growth expectations, a somewhat lower discount rate, higher anticipated profit margins, and a reduced future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shopify reflects a mixed backdrop, but there is still a clear group of bullish analysts highlighting what they see as durable strengths in the business, particularly around its role in global e-commerce infrastructure and its positioning in emerging areas like agentic commerce.
ナラティブの更新 • May 19

SHOP: AI Commerce Optionality And Multiple Compression Will Shape Forward Returns

Analysts have trimmed the Shopify price target from $110 to $105 as they incorporate more moderate revenue growth assumptions, a lower future P/E of about 60x, and slightly higher long run profit margin expectations, while Street research has broadly reset targets lower across the stock. Analyst Commentary Street research around Shopify has turned more cautious, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and flagging risks around growth assumptions, valuation, and execution.
分析記事 • May 14

There May Be Reason For Hope In Shopify's (NASDAQ:SHOP) Disappointing Earnings

Investors were disappointed with the weak earnings posted by Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ). However, our analysis...
分析記事 • May 07

Shopify Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a sad week for Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$105 in the week...
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 29

SHOP: AI Disintermediation Fears And Sector Multiple Compression Will Pressure Returns

Analysts maintained Shopify’s fair value estimate at $110.00 and made modest adjustments to underlying assumptions, citing a mix of reduced price targets from several brokers and renewed support from others who emphasize Shopify’s role as core e-commerce infrastructure and its potential in agentic commerce and AI-powered tools. Analyst Commentary The latest round of research on Shopify reflects a split view, with some firms trimming price targets and others lifting ratings or setting higher targets.
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 15

SHOP: Agentic Commerce Role Will Face Tighter Multiples And AI Disintermediation Tests

Shopify's analyst price targets have recently moved both up and down around the $150 to $165 range, with changes often tied to views on AI driven commerce opportunities, competitive positioning after OpenAI's checkout rollback, and a reassessment of sector valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shopify points to a mixed but increasingly debated outlook, with bullish views on its role in AI enabled commerce set against a wave of more conservative price target resets clustered in the $150 to $165 range.
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 01

SHOP: Agentic Commerce Role Will Confront Sector Multiple Compression And High Expectations

Analysts kept Shopify's fair value estimate steady at $110, while modestly refining their assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, margin profile and future P/E. This reflects a mix of recent price target increases tied to Shopify's role in agentic commerce and infrastructure, along with resets from other firms that cite valuation and sector multiple compression.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 17

SHOP: Agentic Commerce Optimism Will Face Test As Expectations Stay Elevated

Shopify's analyst fair value estimate has been modestly adjusted from $111.12 to $110.00 as analysts factor in updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly lower future P/E. Recent research highlights both rising price targets from bulls focused on AI and agentic commerce potential, and reductions from others citing valuation reset and sector multiple compression.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 03

SHOP: Rich Multiple And Agentic Commerce Promise Will Shape Near-Term Trading

The analyst price target for Shopify in our model edges up from $110.00 to about $111.12 as analysts weigh a mix of recent target cuts and upgrades, with many still highlighting growth in agentic commerce, AI supported monetization, and the stock's pullback as key parts of their thesis. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shopify reflects a split view, with some firms upgrading on the stock's pullback and AI and agentic commerce potential, while others are trimming targets or stepping to the sidelines after a strong run.
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 17

SHOP: Rich Multiple And Mixed Sentiment Will Likely Cap Near-Term Upside

Analysts have trimmed our Shopify fair value estimate to $110 from about $139. This reflects lower price targets across the Street as models reset for softer revenue growth assumptions, slightly reduced margin expectations, and lower sector P/E multiples despite generally solid recent results.
分析記事 • Feb 13

The Price Is Right For Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) Even After Diving 34%

Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 03

SHOP: AI Efficiencies And Q4 Execution Will Support Higher Earnings Power

The analyst fair value estimate for Shopify has increased from US$200 to about US$218, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profitability and future P/E following recent research highlighting Q4 fundamentals, AI driven operating leverage and a series of price target revisions and rating changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research around Shopify has skewed constructive, with several bullish analysts revisiting their models and resetting price targets and ratings after recent earnings and product updates.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 20

SHOP: AI Monetization And Operating Leverage Will Support Measured Upside Into 2026

Analysts have nudged our implied fair value for Shopify to about US$179.49 per share, up roughly US$4 from the prior US$175.43. This reflects Street research that highlights stronger top line potential, rising AI related monetization and operating leverage, partially offset by more cautious views on valuation, margins and already high expectations.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 06

SHOP: Lofty Multiples And Soft Cash Flow Will Restrain Near-Term Upside

Analysts increased their Shopify fair value estimate from about US$116 to roughly US$139, citing stronger expected revenue growth, a slightly higher assumed future P/E, and recent price target hikes across the Street. They attribute these changes to what they view as solid Q3 execution, despite some concerns around valuation and free cash flow.
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 17

SHOP: AI Partnerships And Margin Expansion Will Drive Measured Upside Into 2025

Analysts have nudged our Shopify price target higher to approximately $175, up modestly from about $170. This reflects slightly faster expected profit margin expansion and durable post Q3 growth momentum that they believe supports the stock's premium valuation.
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 03

SHOP: Future AI Commerce Momentum Will Drive Premium Re-Rating Into 2025

Analysts have modestly raised their Shopify price target by about $20 to roughly $190, as stronger growth, improving profit margins, and continued estimate revisions following solid Q3 results support a higher fair value despite ongoing concerns around valuation and near term cash flow softness. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Shopify reflects a constructive but more balanced stance, with most revisions skewing higher on price targets while calls for restraint grow louder around valuation and cash flow visibility.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 21

Resilient performance despite tariff and consumer sentiment pressure

Shopify’s Q3 2025 results (reported 4 Nov 2025) showed revenue growth of ~32% and GMV up ~32% despite the challenging backdrop. The The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index shows the expectations component at 71.5 (October 2025) which is below the ~80 level typically seen as a signal of recession risk.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 19

SHOP: Future Revenue Momentum Will Drive Re-Rating Into 2025

Shopify's analyst fair value target has increased from $165.87 to $175.11. Analysts point to stronger-than-expected Q3 results and sustained revenue growth outpacing market expectations as key drivers behind the positive revision.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 03

SHOP: Expansion And AI Integration Will Drive Continued Market Share Gains

Shopify's analyst price target has been raised from $170 to $200. Analysts cite continued strong growth momentum, robust AI innovation, and market share gains as primary drivers behind the updated outlook.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 20

International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets

Shopify's fair value estimate has increased modestly to $164.45 per share. Analysts point to ongoing growth momentum, resilient market share, and enthusiasm around new AI initiatives as factors supporting a higher price target, despite recent executive departures.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 05

International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets

Shopify's analyst fair value price target has increased slightly by $2.04 to $163.15. Analysts cite continued solid growth, successful product expansion, and positive momentum in recent results as factors supporting the company's higher valuation.
ナラティブの更新 • Aug 27

International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets

Shopify’s consensus price target was slightly raised to $161.11 as analysts highlighted exceptional Q2 results, accelerating revenue and GMV growth, and expanding international and enterprise momentum, although some caution remains on valuation. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite exceptional Q2 results, highlighted by accelerating gross merchandise volume growth and revenue growth above 30% despite difficult macroeconomic conditions.
分析記事 • Aug 11

Optimistic Investors Push Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) Shares Up 33% But Growth Is Lacking

Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 33% share price jump in the last...
ナラティブの更新 • Aug 07

International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets

The significant increase in Shopify’s consensus analyst price target reflects higher growth expectations, as evidenced by a rising future P/E ratio, despite a marginal decline in net profit margin, raising the fair value estimate from $118.76 to $135.38. What's in the News FST Corp.
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新しいナラティブ • Jul 16

Global Entrepreneurship And Online Retail Will Unlock Future Expansion

Global ecommerce trends, international expansion, and platform localization are driving strong merchant growth, revenue diversification, and improved onboarding for Shopify.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 19

Shopify: Why Holding The Line Still Makes Sense Amid Market Uncertainty

Summary On January 19, 2025, I gave Shopify a hold rating due to its high valuation at the time. The stock price has since underperformed. Investors were disappointed in the company's free cash flow guidance for the first quarter of 2025, leading to the stock's decline. Shopify has consistently shown steady revenue growth over the last two years, a positive indicator for its long-term viability. The company is moving upmarket and has gained several large enterprises as customers during the fourth quarter. Despite its strong business model, the stock remains a hold because of macroeconomic concerns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 30

Shopify: Don't Overthink The Buying Opportunity

Summary Shopify has returned to its roots, focusing on doing what it does best, and the recent results have demonstrated that strategy. Shopify has also gained share with the higher value enterprise customers, pushing into spaces dominated by enterprise software firms. SHOP's execution is remarkable, but the stock isn't valued at a discount. While the stock is not assessed to be undervalued, buying momentum remains favorable after the recent 30% drop. I argue why SHOP offers growth investors another opportunity to accumulate while the market dithers due to recent pessimism. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 21

Shopify: The Price Of Perfection

Summary Growth stocks are supposed to see growth rates decelerate over time - but is Shopify excluded from that rule? The company saw growth accelerate in the latest quarter, and management continues to guide for sustained growth ahead. The company is profitable on a GAAP basis with a net cash balance sheet. I evaluate the stock against long-term projections. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

業績と収益の成長予測

NasdaqGS:SHOP - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/202823,0173,5764,7864,50620
12/31/202718,3232,6003,4073,40345
12/31/202614,7981,1532,6162,71745
3/31/202612,3661,3322,1202,147N/A
12/31/202511,5561,2312,0072,033N/A
9/30/202510,6961,7811,9031,923N/A
6/30/202510,0142,3451,8171,833N/A
3/31/20259,3791,6101,7281,745N/A
12/31/20248,8802,0191,5971,616N/A
9/30/20248,2121,3831,4321,449N/A
6/30/20247,7641,2731,2871,304N/A
3/31/20247,413-2091,0511,082N/A
12/31/20237,060132905944N/A
9/30/20236,651-1,148549594N/A
6/30/20236,303-2,025125182N/A
3/31/20235,904-1,918-59-11N/A
12/31/20225,600-3,460-186-136N/A
9/30/20225,245-3,208-1058N/A
6/30/20225,003-1,901168234N/A
3/31/20224,827182313375N/A
12/31/20214,6122,915485536N/A
9/30/20214,2103,410458489N/A
6/30/20213,8532,452507537N/A
3/31/20213,4481,609615646N/A
12/31/20202,929320383425N/A
9/30/20202,457196183232N/A
6/30/20202,080-6758113N/A
3/31/20201,728-132-107-39N/A
12/31/20191,578-125N/A71N/A
9/30/20191,417-127N/A27N/A
6/30/20191,296-78N/A60N/A
3/31/20191,179-73N/A36N/A
12/31/20181,073-65N/A9N/A
9/30/2018952-66N/A19N/A
6/30/2018854-52N/A10N/A
3/31/2018760-42N/A2N/A
12/31/2017673-40N/A8N/A
9/30/2017581-46N/A-4N/A
6/30/2017509-46N/A3N/A
3/31/2017444-40N/A17N/A
12/31/2016389-35N/A14N/A
9/30/2016329-33N/A12N/A
6/30/2016282-28N/A11N/A
3/31/2016241-23N/A12N/A
12/31/2015205-19N/A16N/A
9/30/2015170-17N/A15N/A
6/30/2015145-17N/A13N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: SHOPの予測収益成長率 (年間28.1% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 3.5% ) を上回っています。

収益対市場: SHOPの収益 ( 28.1% ) はUS市場 ( 18.5% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高成長収益: SHOPの収益は今後 3 年間で 大幅に 増加すると予想されています。

収益対市場: SHOPの収益 ( 19.2% ) US市場 ( 12.7% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高い収益成長: SHOPの収益 ( 19.2% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: SHOPの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には低くなると予測されています ( 19.5 %)。

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/06/14 17:28
終値2026/06/12 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Shopify Inc. 45 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。83

アナリスト機関
Harshit GuptaAccountability Research Corporation
Rocco StraussArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP