Seeking Alpha • Oct 03
PropertyGuru: Market Leader With Strong Network Effects
Summary
PGRU operates in an industry with a huge TAM and has strong secular tailwinds.
PGRU is the market leader with strong top-of-mind share and network effects.
PGRU business model insulates it from the cyclicality of the property cycle.
Summary
I recommend a buy rating on PropertyGuru Group (NYSE:PGRU). It is worth $7.32, representing 24% upside from the date of writing. This opportunity exists as the market does not believe PGRU can hit their FY25e guidance and also because of the weak macro environment (e.g., rising rates). I believe the market is wrong, and PGRU can hit guidance based on the several industry tailwinds it enjoys and the structural levers it has that could expand TAM and drive monetization rates.
Company overview
PGRU is Southeast Asia's leading Property Technology (PropTech) company. It's a conduit between those looking to buy and sell homes. Its services include an online real estate marketplace that connects buyers, sellers, renters, and landlords. It also has a mortgage brokerage and a data-providing company that serves consumers, real estate agents, software developers, and financial institutions.
The marketplace is PGRU's main profit driver where it offers a web-based real estate classifieds listing portal. Property owners and renters can use the website to look for rental units and new construction, while real estate agents and builders can use it to advertise their wares.
PGRU makes money from the following sources: annual subscription fees from real estate agents in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia; listing fees in Vietnam; fees for optional features and add-ons in all markets; digital advertising fees from developers; and the sale of SAAS for process automation solutions.
TAM with strong secular tailwinds
PGRU's core markets include Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, all of which combined have a population of 478 million and an economy worth $2.5 trillion as of CY20 based on World bank’s data. There is a large current addressable market for PGRU to continue penetrating and selling more services in, as the region is experiencing high GDP growth in addition to having a large current GDP.
World Bank
The growth of the real estate market in the region is anticipated to be bolstered by a number of secular tailwinds. The most important is the proliferation of internet access, especially via mobile devices. As of today, it is estimated that 63% of the global population have access to the internet, with the highest penetration seen in the developed markets (>90%), while Southeast Asia has relatively lower penetration rates (excluding Malaysia and Singapore). The disparity, however, is predicted to shrink (source 1, 2) as the demand for internet service grows. Widespread use of the internet is important because it makes it possible to use many digital tools that help businesses be more productive and efficient.
One example of a digital tool that has boosted the efficacy of the real estate market is the property portal. Developed markets have provided us with real-world examples of successful adoption. Such websites include Zillow (ZG) in the United States, Rightmove in the United Kingdom, and asrealestate.com.au in Australia. These real estate websites have replaced more traditional forms of advertising, such as newspapers and magazines. I think we will see a similar pattern emerge in Southeast Asia as merchants there try to close the information gap and boost productivity. Even though online advertising for real estate in Southeast Asian markets is just getting started, a similar trend is likely to grow over time.
PGRU Jan 22 Investor Day
The next industry growth tailwind is urbanization. Again, we know that urban population growth drives housing demand in developed markets. While urbanization is already high in developed markets, ~85% in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States based on PRGU F-4), it is not the case in Southeast Asia (except Singapore). Urbanization rates are much lower, ranging from 20% to 53%, but are expected to rise (source 1, 2) in the coming years. Increases in individual or household wealth (due to the economic growth) would result in a demand for a higher standard of living (i.e., moving from rural areas to urban cities). This shift implies an increase in housing demand and the need for buyers and sellers to find each other more efficiently.
PGRU Jan 22 Investor Day
As previously stated, the combination of rising internet adoption and urbanization bodes well for PGRU to continue growing and capitalizing on this tailwind. Aside from industry tailwinds, PGRU can increase its TAM and monetization through structural levers. For example, PGRU could diversify its revenue streams by providing other services such as mortgage and insurance brokerage, anonymous property data to third parties, renovation assistance, and so on. The overall goal is to broaden the TAM and reach as many consumer touchpoints as possible, increasing PGRU's ability to monetize and grow revenues. The total TAM indicated by PGRU is $8.1 billion, and I believe there is a clear path to it penetrating all of them.
PGRU Jan 22 Investor Day
Market leader with strong top-of-mind share and network effects
Amazon's (AMZN) success in online retailing in the United States and Just Eat Takeaway (OTCPK:JTKWY) in the Netherlands and Germany illustrates the winner-take-all dynamics inherent in marketplace businesses. To succeed in a marketplace business, the most important thing is to be at the top of your customers' minds, so it's crucial to promote strong levels of interaction and recognition of your brand. In Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand, PGRU digital property marketplaces command the lion's share of the engagement market.
Normad Capital
Google Analytics data shows that between July and December of 2021, 82% of all traffic to PGRU's platforms came from organic traffic (PGRU F-4). This shows that the company's brands are well-known and trusted in the Southeast Asian real estate market.
The second most important fact about marketplace restaurants to keep in mind is that the dominant players typically have powerful network effects, making it hard for the minor players to grow to a competitive size. Because of the positive feedback loop created by the high volume of buyers and sellers on its online marketplace, PGRU is able to expand its operations and strengthen its market position as a result of network effects. For example, in developed markets like Australia and the United Kingdom, for example, the online property advertising industry has consolidated into two or three major companies that share a significant majority of online property advertising revenue, so this trend is in line with what Frost & Sullivan has observed.
Nature of the business model ensures resiliency through property cycles
Due to their annual subscription model, PGRU is protected from market downturns, and during weak property market periods, agents are likely to spend more on discretionary products like exposure boosters in an effort to increase the visibility of their listings. This is not a deal breaker, but I do think investors will appreciate the resilience in the event of a downturn.
Valuation
At the current stock price of USD4.48 and 161.2 million shares, the market cap is ~$722 million. I believe PGRU is worth USD7.59 representing 69% upside from the date of writing. I believe PGRU will make $557 million in sales and $251 million in EBITDA in FY31. This will be driven by high sales growth in the mid-terms based on management’s guidance and margin expansion.