ModivCare Inc.

OTCPK:MODV.Q 株式レポート

時価総額：US$216.0k

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ModivCare 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /06

現在、 ModivCareの成長と収益を予測するのに十分なアナリストの調査がありません。

主要情報

n/a

収益成長率

n/a

EPS成長率

Healthcare 収益成長18.4%
収益成長率n/a
将来の株主資本利益率n/a
アナリストカバレッジ

None

最終更新日n/a

今後の成長に関する最新情報

Recent updates

分析記事 • Jun 11

ModivCare Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MODV) CEO Might Not Expect Shareholders To Be So Generous This Year

Key Insights ModivCare to hold its Annual General Meeting on 17th of June Salary of US$792.9k is part of CEO L...
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新しいナラティブ • Apr 07

Tech-enabled Platforms And Fee-For-Service Will Transform Operations

Leveraging technology platforms and strategic divestitures aim to enhance revenue, optimize capital structure, and boost earnings.
Seeking Alpha • Dec 02

ModivCare: A Complicated Tale

Summary ModivCare's stock has plummeted due to issues with Matrix Medical and delays in contract receivable collections, despite stable core business segments. Management's revised FY24 Adj. EBITDA guidance and recent covenant relief negotiations highlight financial instability, yet analysts remain cautiously optimistic. An updated analysis around ModivCare follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Aug 31

Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By ModivCare Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MODV) Revenues Despite 26% Price Jump

ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting...
分析記事 • Jul 11

Is ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) A Risky Investment?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...
分析記事 • Apr 04

ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV) Looks Inexpensive After Falling 26% But Perhaps Not Attractive Enough

To the annoyance of some shareholders, ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) shares are down a considerable 26% in the last...
分析記事 • Feb 29

ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV) Just Reported Earnings, And Analysts Cut Their Target Price

Shareholders in ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 37% to US$28.61 in the week since...
分析記事 • Feb 22

ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that...
分析記事 • Jan 25

Sentiment Still Eluding ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV)

You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x ModivCare Inc. ( NASDAQ:MODV ) is a stock worth...
分析記事 • Nov 08

Is ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
分析記事 • Aug 03

Here's Why ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
分析記事 • Apr 17

Is ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
分析記事 • Feb 24

Is There An Opportunity With ModivCare Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MODV) 49% Undervaluation?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, ModivCare fair value estimate is US$206 ModivCare's US$104...
分析記事 • Oct 12

Does ModivCare (NASDAQ:MODV) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Seeking Alpha • Sep 02

ModivCare: ROIC And Continuing Value Are Narrowing - Rating It A Hold

Summary Here we took a hard-data approach to examine the investment and continuing value for ModivCare, Inc. We note the company displays a loose affinity to the kind of equity premia we are chasing exposure to. Return on investment and bottom-line earnings have tightened in recent periods for MODV – an unhealthy combo. We see that shares are overpriced even at 0.75x book value and demonstrate there's a lack of compelling value on offer. We rate MODV a hold on a $103 valuation. Investment summary An understanding of a company's value proposition is paramount in making the most informed investment decisions. It is our philosophy to separate measures of corporate value into two segments - investment and earnings - to gauge exactly what we're buying, what's on offer, and if it's worth the cost. Here we examined ModivCare Inc. (MODV) in this same light and found there to be a lack of compelling value on offer. AS FCF yields and return on investment have dwindled in recent periods, and forward-looking estimates narrowing as well, valuations are no longer supportive of the long-term buy thesis. We rate MODV a hold on a $103 valuation. Exhibit 1. MODV 6-month price action MODV has participated in the June relief rally but blown off the peal with a double-top that saw shares rejected at the c.$120-$122 mark. Data: Refinitiv Eikon Whilst revenues climb, FCF yield has dwindled Quarterly operating revenues have continued to bulk up since FY19 on a sequential basis, as seen in Exhibit 2. For instance, Q2 FY22 service revenue came in at $628 million ["mm'] for the year, a year-on-year growth schedule of 32%. The non-emergency medical transportation ("NEMT") segment gained 23% YoY and contributed $449mm to the top line. Growth was underscored by a more favourable revenue mix. This comprised a ~14% YoY gain in average monthly members, a ~500bps increase in revenue per trip and an 18% increase in trip volume. Meanwhile, personal care turnover was $163mm for the quarter and saw growth from $110 the year prior. Upside was driven by an additional ~$42.5mm in incremental revenue from the CareFinders acquisition. However, despite the upsides at the top-line, this hasn't carried through to the P&L on a GAAP or non-GAAP basis. We note that FCF margin has been thinning since FY20, after a large change in net working capital [discussed below] alongside operating margin. Hence, the spread between top/bottom line is widening for MODV, and this weakens the fundamental momentum looking ahead. Note, investors currently realize a 3.4% FCF yield, in-line with FY19 levels but at a FY22 market capitalization. Exhibit 2. Thinning FCF margins and yield since FY20 on a sequential basis Data: HB Insights, MODV SEC Filings Keep in mind that the narrowing FCF margin/conversion would be preferred if the return on investment comfortably beat the WACC hurdle, and, if there is adequate capital available. Firstly, short-term obligations are poorly covered from liquid assets and cash at just 0.7x cover. Moreover, cash & equivalents has also narrowed from $290mm-$88mm in the last quarter. There may, therefore, be some drain and pull on liquidity with these measures. As seen in Exhibit 3, MODV's trailing 12-month ("TTM") FCF yield [a measure of corporate and shareholder value] has closely tracked its return on investment ("ROIC") on a sequential basis since FY18. As such, both have been declining since FY20, and therefore profitability is a concern for the company with this data in mind. Exhibit 3. Data: HB Insights Explaining the jump in FY18-FY19, is 367% QoQ change in net working capital ("NWC") in Q3-Q4 FY20. This saw net working capital [including cash] jump from $141mm to $674mm in one reporting period. Note, that a positive change in NWC generally equates to less FCF, and this is reflected precisely in Exhibit 4. Note that, following the large spike in NWC, both ROIC and FCF immediately began to reverse course. As a result, FCF yields and ROIC have continued to narrow on a sequential basis in each period subsequent to this event. Nevertheless, the large change in MODV's net operating assets [short-term accruals] is a key factor that has altered the company's return on capital cycle. Exhibit 4. FCF yield and return on investment both narrowing since large change in NWC ack in FY20 at the start of the pandemic Data: HB insights, MODV SEC Filings As seen in Exhibit 5, return on investment is now back below pre-pandemic levels, however, we are paying well above pre-pandemic market capitalization [and enterprise value]. Meanwhile, as the level of invested capital has increased over time, net operating profit after tax ("NOPAT") has been bottom heavy and turned course, thus clamping the rate of investment return for MODV. Exhibit 5. ROIC print is back at FY19 actuals although we are paying FY22 market capitalization Data: HB Insights, MODV SEC Filings Valuation In order to extract a figure of true corporate value, we first must reconcile a few items on the income statement and balance sheet. Goodwill in particular is of note. It arises due to the acquisition method of accounting, that is highly subjective. For instance, in its 10-Q, regarding the acquisition of CareFinders, the company notes re the $236.7mm goodwill asset on the transaction as follows: "The acquisition preliminarily resulted in $232.2 million of goodwill as a result of expected synergies due to future customers driven by expansion into different markets, an increase in market share, and a growing demographic that will need home care solutions. All of the acquired goodwill is deductible for tax purposes." Hence we adjust for $1.44 Billion of goodwill on the balance sheet and arrive at an adjusted shareholder equity of $236.9mm, down from a reported $381.9mm. That's the investment pile of MODV's valuation sorted. For earnings, we had to reconcile ~$30mm in non-cash expenses and stock based compensation and see it print $68mm in operating income and $52mm in NOPAT [$3.71 per share]. This resulted in an adjusted net income of ~$51mm and adjusted earnings of $3.63 per share - up from $0.20 reported. As seen in Exhibit 6, the reconciliations help earnings performance drastically. Exhibit 6. Reconciliation of GAAP measures - note, shareholder equity includes all recognized intangibles. Data: HB Investments US Equity Fund On these figures shares trade at 1.2 enterprise value ("EV) to book value, and ~0.75x price to book. On first glance, this represents compelling value. But does it? When we adjust for the above, at these multiples, we'd be paying an exorbitant $201 per share, and $124 even at 0.74x book value. Moreover, investor ROE is unattractive with a payback period of 15-21 years from current levels of FCF. Question is, is it worth paying an implied $124-$201 for what's on offer earnings wise?

このセクションでは通常、投資家が会社の利益創出能力を理解する一助となるよう、プロのアナリストのコンセンサス予想に基づく収益と利益の成長予測を提示する。しかし、ModivCare は十分な過去のデータを提供しておらず、アナリストの予測もないため、過去のデータを外挿したり、アナリストの予測を使用しても、その将来の収益を確実に算出することはできません。

シンプリー・ウォール・ストリートがカバーする企業の97%は過去の財務データを持っているため、これはかなり稀な状況です。

業績と収益の成長予測

OTCPK:MODV.Q - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
9/30/20252,693-451-147-125N/A
6/30/20252,715-404-89-65N/A
3/31/20252,754-229-122-98N/A
12/31/20242,788-201-34-6N/A
9/30/20242,788-183-96-62N/A
6/30/20242,773-161-52-18N/A
3/31/20242,773-223-108-71N/A
12/31/20232,751-204-125-83N/A
9/30/20232,702-206-152-113N/A
6/30/20232,663-230-212-173N/A
3/31/20232,592-36-122-85N/A
12/31/20222,504-32-43-10N/A
9/30/20222,426-562558N/A
6/30/20222,272-354069N/A
3/31/20222,118-2599124N/A
12/31/20211,997-7166187N/A
9/30/20211,82023215236N/A
6/30/20211,64766352370N/A
3/31/20211,45537428444N/A
12/31/20201,36932336348N/A
9/30/20201,35523300308N/A
6/30/20201,428-5176185N/A
3/31/20201,50955061N/A
12/31/20191,510-95061N/A
9/30/20191,486-21425N/A
6/30/20191,4360N/A39N/A
3/31/20191,4167N/A21N/A
12/31/20181,38512N/A8N/A
9/30/20181,12542N/A41N/A
6/30/20181,19145N/A38N/A
3/31/20181,25545N/A44N/A
12/31/20171,31840N/A55N/A
9/30/20171,603-23N/A33N/A
6/30/20171,606-32N/A13N/A
3/31/20171,596-34N/A43N/A
12/31/20161,23412N/A42N/A
9/30/20161,566-35N/A33N/A
6/30/20161,533-43N/A27N/A
3/31/20161,440-44N/A33N/A
12/31/20151,478-40N/A16N/A
9/30/20151,47310N/A47N/A
6/30/20151,40317N/A60N/A
3/31/20151,26722N/A63N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: MODV.Qの予測収益成長が 貯蓄率 ( 3.3% ) を上回っているかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

収益対市場: MODV.Qの収益がUS市場よりも速く成長すると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です

高成長収益: MODV.Qの収益が今後 3 年間で 大幅に 増加すると予想されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

収益対市場: MODV.Qの収益がUS市場よりも速く成長すると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

高い収益成長: MODV.Qの収益が年間20%よりも速く成長すると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: MODV.Qの 自己資本利益率 が 3 年後に高くなると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2025/12/31 21:50
終値2025/12/29 00:00
収益2025/09/30
年間収益2024/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

ModivCare Inc. 0 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。7

アナリスト機関
Robert LabickCJS Securities, Inc.
Miles HighsmithDeutsche Bank
Philip ChickeringDeutsche Bank