Seeking Alpha • Sep 29
Lesaka Technologies: Recent Acquisition Could Imply Larger Valuations
Summary
Lesaka offers merchants and consumers in Southern Africa a fintech platform with cash management, payment, and financial services.
Further new products and acquisitions, internationalization, and economies of scale from the existing acquisitions could imply a valuation of $9.45 per share.
Under my best case scenario, Lesaka would acquire other businesses in South Africa, which would bring significant sales growth and EBITDA margin growth.
Lesaka Technologies, Inc. (LSAK) is expected to benefit from the recent acquisition of competitors, and has a massive target market. With other investment advisors, I am also optimistic about the future free cash flow of LSAK mainly from 2024. In my view, transactions may bring economies of scale, more products, and more exposure to new sectors, which will likely lead to revenue growth and free cash flow generation. Yes, there are some risks from the current level of debt, covenant agreements, and failed acquisitions. However, the company remains too cheap at its current market price.
Lesaka: Large Market Opportunity
Lesaka offers merchants and consumers in Southern Africa a fintech platform with cash management, payment, and financial services. The company targets a massive number of merchants and consumers, and the list of products is overwhelming.
Source: Annual Report
I think that the market opportunity is massive. The most relevant is that South Africa is a cash-based economy. Close to 59% of the total number of transactions is executed by cash. I believe that products like those of Lesaka will most likely be innovative in the country.
It is also worth noting that the company holds a small amount of the target market. Hence, there is significant room for improvement in terms of revenue growth. The following words are from the annual report:
We currently have just over 1.1 million active account holders which represents approximately 4% share of our total addressable market. Source: Source: Annual Report
Investment Analysts Believe That Lesaka Will Deliver, From 2024, Positive And Growing Free Cash Flow
I believe that things are going to get much better for shareholders. Other analysts seem to agree with my vision. Estimates distributed by advisors include 10% sales growth in 2024, 159% sales growth in 2023, and an EBITDA margin close to 6%. Finally, 2024 net income would stand at $2.58 million.
Marketscreener.com
In my view, the most relevant estimate from analysts is the free cash flow. The expectations include significant free cash flow in 2023 and 2024. I believe that the stock demand will increase as soon as investors do notice the incoming increase in free cash flow.
Marketscreener.com
I didn’t see Lesaka’s outlook for the full year 2023 and 2024. However, I would note that management expects significant increase in both the EBITDA margin and revenue growth in 2023 Q1. If the EBITDA margin increase continues in 2023, I would say that the expectations of Lesaka would be aligned to those of investment analysts.
Source: Presentation
Balance Sheet
As of June 30, 2022, Lesaka reports $43 million in cash, goodwill worth $162 million, intangible assets of $156 million, and total assets worth $656 million. The asset/liability ratio stands at around 2x, so the balance sheet looks in good shape. With that, let’s note that impairment of goodwill or intangibles could occur, which could rapidly lower the asset/liability ratio.
Source: Annual Report
Long-term borrowings stand at $134 million, and short-term credit facilities stand at close to $66 million. I believe that the net debt/forward EBITDA would stand at close to 3x-4x. In my view, Lesaka’s net debt does not seem worrying if net sales and free cash flow growth continue in the near future.
Source: Annual Report
Source: Presentation
My Base Case Scenario Implied A Valuation Of $4 Per Share
In my view, the recent acquisitions will likely bring new products and access to new sectors in South Africa. The recent acquisition of Connect Group during the year ended June 30, 2022 is a good example of new markets and products. More target markets will likely bring more economies of scale, more revenue, and perhaps FCF margin expansion.
Through the introduction of a suite of solutions and technologies targeted at the MSME merchant sector where we were previously under-represented, we can address the needs of approximately 1.4 million informal and approximately 700,000 formal MSMEs in South Africa. Source: Annual Report
I believe that Lesaka could obtain significant revenue traction through the acquisition of entities outside South Africa. Let’s notice that the presence of Lesaka in the rest of the world is quite small, which is a pity. In my view, if the know-how accumulated in South Africa is working, it may work in other territories like India, South America, or other parts of Africa.
Source: Annual Report
Finally, in my view, management will benefit significantly from an increase in communication about its new products to merchants. I believe that many merchants in South Africa and other regions may not be using the company’s products because they are not aware of their existence. Digital wallets, financing of working capital, or cash availability could make a lot of good to certain merchants:
On the merchant side, less than 8% of merchants have access to formal credit and less than 4% of informal merchants can accept digital payments. And for consumers, approximately 20% of the estimated 26 million South African consumers in LSM 1-6 have access to credit and savings and a significant majority of the approximately 12 million permanent grant recipients require immediate cash withdrawals of their grant. Source: Annual Report
Experts in the assessment of markets believe that the payment processing solutions market size could increase at a CAGR of 11.7% from 2020 to 2027. In this case scenario, I used these figures for the sales growth of Lesaka:
Fortune Business Insights, published this information in its latest report, titled, Payment Processing Solutions Market Size, Share Forecast, 2027. The report further mentions that the market stood at USD 48.60 billion in 2019 and is likely to exhibit a CAGR of 11.7% between 2020 and 2027. Source: With 11.7% CAGR, Payment Processing Solutions Market Size