Seeking Alpha • Aug 21
Golub Capital: I Am Buying This 8.6% Yielding BDC Hand Over Fist
Golub Capital trades at a 7% discount to net asset value.
GBDC out-earned its dividend with NII in 3Q-22, and the pay-out ratio improved due to robust NII performance.
Portfolio health remained solid in the second quarter.
The United States' economy is in a slump, and persistently high inflation makes it difficult for income investors to protect their purchasing power.
Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) can, in my opinion, assist investors in mitigating economic risks due to the BDC's first lien-focused investment strategy.
Golub Capital covered its dividend with net investment income in 3Q-22, while net asset value fell slightly QoQ. The stock trades at a 7% discount to NAV, providing investors with a small margin of safety.
Portfolio Actions
Golub Capital invests with a safety-first mindset, focusing almost entirely on the highest forms of available debt: First Liens.
First Liens accounted for 84% of the business development company's investments at the end of the quarter, a 4% increase from the previous quarter.
At the end of 2Q-22, the total weighting towards First Liens (both one stop and traditional senior) was 94%. The total allocation to investments other than First Liens increased by 2 percentage points YoY and remained stable at 6% QoQ. Aside from First Liens, Golub Capital primarily invests in equity and junior debt.
Portfolio Highlights (Golub Capital BDC)
Golub Capital's portfolio value increased by $187.4 million QoQ to $5.6 billion, with new investment commitments totaling $449.6 million. In the second quarter, approximately 95% of new investments were made in the First Lien category, which is already Golub Capital's core investment product. Equity investments accounted for approximately 5% of new investments in 2Q-22.
Investment Activity (Golub Capital BDC)
Yields May Come Under Pressure
Golub Capital's portfolio yields remained stable in 2Q-22, but rates are rising, and the BDC's rising interest rate costs may limit its ability to generate attractive yields in the future. Golub Capital's investment income yield was 7.5% in 2Q-22, up 0.2 percentage points QoQ.
Positioned For Higher Interest Rates (Golub Capital BDC)
Credit Quality
BDCs primarily invest in high-quality debt instruments, so borrowers must be able to repay whatever money they borrow. Golub Capital has no major issues in this regard. The business development firm's non-accruals did not rise in the last quarter, indicating that credit quality remained stable. Non-accruals at Golub Capital remained stable in 3Q-22, at 1.1% at fair value or 1.5% at cost.
Non-Accruals (Golub Capital BDC)
Q2’22 Dividend Pay-Out Metrics
Golub Capital's stronger business results in 3Q-22 were driven by a recovering economy, which allowed for robust net investment income growth compared to the 2021 period. Golub Capital's net investment income in 3Q-22 was $53.9 million, a 28% increase over the previous year's NII of $42.1 million.
I use Golub Capital's adjusted net investment income, which includes the capital gain incentive fee paid to the external manager, to calculate dividend pay-out ratios. The BDC's adjusted NII in 3Q-22 was $0.34 per share, up from $0.30 in 3Q-21.
As a result, Golub Capital's dividend payout was easily covered by adjusted NII (pay-out ratio of 88%). Golub Capital distributed 98% of its adjusted net investment income over the last twelve months.
NII, Dividend And Pay-Out Ratio (Author Created Table Using BDC Information)
Net Asset Value Dropped Only Marginally
Golub Capital's net asset value fell $0.21 per share in the third quarter due to unrealized depreciation on the BDC's investments of $0.24 per share. The drop in net asset value was relatively minor (1.4% QoQ), and the BDC's credit quality remained strong.
NAV Per Share (Golub Capital BDC)
Golub Capital's stock is currently yielding 8.6% and trading at a 7% discount to net asset value. Given that the BDC is invested in a very conservative debt portfolio, the NAV discount provides a reasonable margin of safety.
GBDC Price to Book Value data by YCharts
Why Golub Capital Could See A Lower Valuation
I'm not concerned about Golub Capital's First Lien performance right now. Golub Capital's safety-first investment strategy, combined with strong NII growth and low non-accruals, indicates that the business development firm is running a healthy investment portfolio.