Birkenstock Holding plc

NYSE:BIRK 株式レポート

時価総額：US$6.1b

Birkenstock Holding 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /26

Birkenstock Holding利益と収益がそれぞれ年間16.8%と11.4%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に13.6% 17.1%なると予測されています。

主要情報

16.8%

収益成長率

17.09%

EPS成長率

Luxury 収益成長17.6%
収益成長率11.4%
将来の株主資本利益率13.59%
アナリストカバレッジ

Good

最終更新日21 May 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

分析記事 • Feb 15

Birkenstock Holding plc Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Birkenstock Holding plc ( NYSE:BIRK ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...
分析記事 • Aug 18

Results: Birkenstock Holding plc Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

NYSE:BIRK 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Birkenstock Holding's Fair Values from the Community and select...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 13

Birkenstock: Concerning Sales Slowdown And Inventory Buildup (Downgrade)

Summary Birkenstock faces decelerating growth, weak Q2 results, and rising inventories, prompting my downgrade to neutral. BIRK demonstrates resilience with double-digit growth and gross margin improvement from increased capacity absorption, despite macroeconomic headwinds. Risks include a more promotional retail environment, B2B order pullbacks, and intensified competition from brands like CROX. I recommend moving to the sidelines on BIRK, as recent trends skew the risk/reward balance to the downside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Feb 15

Birkenstock Holding plc Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Birkenstock Holding plc ( NYSE:BIRK ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...
分析記事 • Dec 11

Is There An Opportunity With Birkenstock Holding plc's (NYSE:BIRK) 21% Undervaluation?

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Birkenstock Holding fair value estimate is US$56.74 Current...
分析記事 • Nov 05

Is Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE:BIRK) Potentially Undervalued?

While Birkenstock Holding plc ( NYSE:BIRK ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share...
ナラティブの更新 • Sep 26

APAC And China Trends Will Unlock Future Potential

Birkenstock Holding’s modestly lower consensus price target reflects a significant rise in its future P/E multiple, while profit margins remained stable, resulting in a revised fair value of $69.17. What's in the News Birkenstock raised its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to at least €2.09 billion, reflecting 15.9% reported growth and 17.5% growth in constant currency, above previous guidance.
分析記事 • Sep 12

Here's Why We Think Birkenstock Holding (NYSE:BIRK) Is Well Worth Watching

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...
分析記事 • Aug 18

Results: Birkenstock Holding plc Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

NYSE:BIRK 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Birkenstock Holding's Fair Values from the Community and select...
分析記事 • Jul 09

Calculating The Fair Value Of Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE:BIRK)

Key Insights Birkenstock Holding's estimated fair value is US$44.94 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 13

Birkenstock: Upgrade To Buy On Cheaper Valuation

Summary I upgrade Birkenstock to a buy rating as the stock now trades at ~22x forward P/E, making it more attractive. BIRK shows resilient top-line growth across all regions and channels, with 1Q25 revenue up 19% y/y, exceeding management’s FY25 guidance. The DTC strategy is gaining momentum, with plans to increase store count by ~40% and a growing membership base driving higher transaction values. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 21

Birkenstock Adds Winter Assortment, But The Stock Remains Too Expensive

Summary Birkenstock Holding plc reported 19% YOY revenue growth, but the market reacted negatively due to maintained full-year guidance of 15%-17%, indicating potential deceleration from last year's 20%. Wholesale growth outperformed at 30%, but 90% came from existing doors, raising saturation concerns; DTC growth slowed to 10% from 30% last year. Product diversification is promising, with closed-toe silhouettes making up 50% of revenue; Asia grew 47% YoY, now 13% of sales. BIRK stock valuation remains high at 27x NTM earnings, requiring flawless execution and sustained growth; maintain a Hold rating due to high fashion risk and revenue deceleration signs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 03

Birkenstock: There's Still Room To Rise As ASP Expansion And China Growth Power Earnings

Summary I favor "growth at a reasonable price" stocks like Birkenstock, which has seen a ~20% rise and strong Q4 results. Birkenstock's gross margins fell in FY24 due to facility expansion but are expected to improve in FY25, moving closer to long-term targets. Increased production efficiency and an 8% ASP increase are boosting Birkenstock's margins, forecasting up to 50bps y/y expansion in adjusted EBITDA. Birkenstock shows strong growth potential in underpenetrated markets like Asia, making it a solid investment for continued success in 2025. The stock trades at a reasonable ~18x forward adjusted EBITDA multiple. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
User avatar
新しいナラティブ • Dec 22

APAC Expansion And Closed-Toe Product Surge To Propel Revenue And Margins

Aggressive expansion in APAC and increased DTC sales boost revenue, with new store openings enhancing global retail presence.
Seeking Alpha • Dec 22

Birkenstock: Upside Is Not Attractive At The Current Valuation

Summary I assign a hold rating to Birkenstock due to limited upside potential despite strong fundamentals and positive outlook. BIRK's recent performance is impressive, with 22% y/y growth in 4Q24 and strong demand across all regions and channels. Management's conservative FY25 guidance of 15-17% y/y growth suggests potential for a "beat and raise" motion, but valuation limits upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 23

Birkenstock Holding: Undervalued, With Tailwinds Ahead

Summary Birkenstock is expanding into untapped Asian markets and emphasizing sustainability, creating strong growth potential and differentiation from competitors. Financial performance has been robust, with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, demonstrating resilience in a challenging economic environment. My DCF analysis indicates the stock is undervalued, with a potential 67.1% upside, supporting a "BUY" recommendation. Despite competition, Birkenstock's unique product features and sustainable practices mitigate risks, reinforcing its market position. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 05

Birkenstock: Stock Is Still Not Attractive After Price Drop

Summary Birkenstock's Q3 2024 showed an impressive 19% YoY revenue growth, but the stock price dropped 20% due to a revenue and earnings miss. Despite strong performance, high valuations and fashion risk make Birkenstock's stock inherently risky, leading me to maintain a Hold rating. The company's shift from DTC to B2B impacted gross margins, but management's guidance of 20% topline growth and 30% EBITDA margins remains intact. Birkenstock's current valuation requires excessive growth to justify its price, making future returns uncertain and supporting my Hold recommendation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 30

Birkenstock: Decelerating Growth And Inflated Valuations Do Not Mix Well

Summary Birkenstock's shares trade at a very high valuation despite decelerating revenue growth, contracting gross profit margins, and insiders selling. The company's third-quarter results missed revenue and profit expectations, and forward guidance was weak. Birkenstock's strategy of creating artificial scarcity is risky and could backfire, giving competitors an opportunity to capture unmet demand. Despite generating significant cash flow and reducing net debt, the high valuation, and potential governance issues remain major concerns. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 30

Birkenstock Has A Great Brand And Potential, But The Stock Is Overvalued

Summary Birkenstock IPOed last year with a frothy valuation based on significant growth that has continued in FY24. The company has several interesting characteristics, including great brand equity, pricing power, and a relatively loyal customer base. The company is also growing tremendously in FY23 and FY24, which is more impressive in comparison with the generally bad performance of most discretionary companies during this period. Despite these positive aspects, Birkenstock's stock price already discounts most future positive developments, and exposes investors to significant risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 11

Birkenstock: Stellar Growth In Asia And Closed-Toe Shoes

Summary Birkenstock stock remains a long-term hold despite a 20%+ run-up year to date. The company's Q2 earnings release showed slightly accelerating revenue growth, with continued performance in Asia and strong sell-through results in Europe. The company is also noting that closed-toe shoes, in particular clogs, are making up a larger share of its revenue. Gross margins are suffering a current headwind from a manufacturing capacity expansion, but this is a signal that the company is preparing for operating at a much larger scale. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 30

Birkenstock: Aggressive Growth Trajectory Continues

Summary Birkenstock, the shoemaker that went public last year, has failed to rally beyond its IPO price, despite incredible financials. The company has shown strong Q4 results, with aggressive growth in direct-channel sales and a reduction in debt leverage. Birkenstock has an incredible growth trajectory, a broad product portfolio, efficient marketing strategies, and a stellar margin profile, making it a promising investment. It's growing >50% y/y in Asia, which is a largely underpenetrated market for the company. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 27

Birkenstock's Valuation Conundrum: Lofty Market Expectations Vs. Real Growth Hurdles

Summary Birkenstock's is trading at 6.5x NTM EV/Sales and 21.4x NTM EV/EBITDA respectively, with the current valuation implying a 17.7% annual growth rateover the next decade, while maintaining 30% EBITDA margin. The company is facing hurdles such as low/stagnant unit sales growth, rising costs, limited room for further price increases and hence a potential margin decline. With inventories levels at 40% of revenues, exceeding 30 million units, and a modest 5.5% unit growth in FY2023, signs point to potential low consumer demand. Given the free float is under 10%, skewing the current valuation from the market's true sentiment, our outlook on the stock is bearish. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 30

Birkenstock: Right Time To Buy

Summary Birkenstock, the German shoemaker, is experiencing incredible growth with a multi-year trajectory above 20% y/y. Future growth drivers include relatively low penetration in Asian markets as well as retail/DTC expansion. The company boasts a stellar margin profile with a gross margin in the low 60s (versus mid-40s for competitors). Though not cheap at ~18x forward adjusted EBITDA, Birkenstock's premium growth and margin profile justify a premium valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 19

Birkenstock: Landing On Its Feet

Summary Birkenstock, a German-based global brand, went public in October 2023 at a premium valuation. The company saw strong growth in sales and profits, with revenues up 20% in 2023. Despite a slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter, Birkenstock's revenue guidance for 2024 is promising, with sales expected to reach EUR 1.75 billion. While there is much to like about the business and its growth prospects, valuations are too stretched to get involved. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 06

Birkenstock: Walking On Overvalued Ground

Summary Birkenstock, controlled by L Catterton, has seen significant growth in the past decade, but its valuation may be too high. The company's strategy of expanding in markets like China and India and focusing on direct-to-consumer sales appears to be successful. While Birkenstock has a strong brand and potential for growth, its current valuation is demanding and may not be sustainable long term. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 12

Birkenstock Is Walking On Air

Summary Birkenstock, a German footwear maker, went public Wednesday. The company's guiding principle is "Walking Naturally", and its footwear is designed for comfort and foot health. BIRK has experienced significant growth, but its profitability is weak, and 76% of the offer price is based on assumptions about future growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

業績と収益の成長予測

NYSE:BIRK - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )EUR Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
9/30/20283,02152950369112
9/30/20272,65944144158321
9/30/20262,33436038153021
3/31/20262,182356310415N/A
12/31/20252,138379263368N/A
9/30/20252,097348299384N/A
6/30/20252,027307293373N/A
3/31/20251,957252318394N/A
12/31/20241,863219388462N/A
9/30/20241,805192355429N/A
6/30/20241,723111326404N/A
3/31/20241,63299270359N/A
12/31/20231,54677271366N/A
9/30/20231,49275256359N/A
6/30/20231,439161251367N/A
3/31/20231,344154153264N/A
12/31/20221,220141102194N/A
9/30/20221,243187162234N/A
9/30/20211,110-41236255N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: BIRKの予測収益成長率 (年間16.8% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 3.5% ) を上回っています。

収益対市場: BIRKの収益 ( 16.8% ) はUS市場 ( 16.7% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高成長収益: BIRKの収益は増加すると予測されていますが、大幅には増加しません。

収益対市場: BIRKの収益 ( 11.4% ) US市場 ( 11.7% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。

高い収益成長: BIRKの収益 ( 11.4% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: BIRKの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には低くなると予測されています ( 13.6 %)。

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/21 12:02
終値2026/05/21 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/09/30

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Birkenstock Holding plc 21 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。24

アナリスト機関
Mark AltschwagerBaird
Luca SolcaBernstein
Melania GrippoBNP Paribas