lululemon athletica inc.NasdaqGS:LULU 株式レポート

The Value Perspective Lululemon is currently trading at 6.8x EV/EBITDA, a 69% discount to its own 10-year median of 22x. To put that in perspective, this multiple is approaching the all-time low of 6.63x the stock has ever seen across its entire public history.

Business Overview Key Metrics Total: 4/17 +1 ✅ Projected Operating Margin: 18.84% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 4.73% +2 ✅✅ Last 5-Year ROIC: 45.98% +1 ✅ Estimated Cost of Capital: 7.18% (lower than ROIC) +1 ✅ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: -2.51% -1 ❌ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 6.92% (lower than 10%) +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: N/A +2 ✅✅ Estimated Debt Rating: Aaa -1 ❌ Morningstar Moat: Narrow -1 ❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: High Business Valuation To calculate the intrinsic value of the company I'll use multiple methods: Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) - Intrinsic value is estimated by projecting its free cash flows over the next 10 years and discounting them to present value using the estimated cost of capital ; EPS Growth - the fair value is estimated by projected the Earnings Per Share CAGR for the next 5 Years and then, given its current and historic values of PE, come up with a PE for the 5th Year. This will give us its price 5 Years from now using the formula: Price = EPS x PE that we then discount using the estimated cost of capital; Historical EV/EBITDA - we assume mean reversion to the historical EV/EBITDA values; Historical P/E - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/E values; Historical P/S - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/S values.

Key Takeaways Revamped product strategy and agile supply chain processes are set to drive revenue growth and boost conversion in core and international markets. Investments in digital, AI, and omnichannel initiatives aim to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, supporting long-term demand and margin stability.

Lululemon (LULU) appears to be undervalued based on current analysis. The stock is trading around $281.35, with analysts predicting a consensus price target of $354.94, indicating about a 26% upside potential.

Lululemon (LULU) has quietly transformed from a premium yoga brand into a broader wellness platform. While macro pressures and shifting consumer spending patterns have weighed on parts of retail, performance-driven lifestyle brands continue to show resilience.

Key Takeaways Intensifying market saturation, brand fatigue, and shifting consumer trends threaten lululemon's revenue growth, pricing power, and margin stability. International expansion and cost headwinds, including tariffs and regulatory changes, increase the risk of long-term earnings and revenue stagnation.

Key Takeaways Valuation DCF Implied Share Price: $235.56 Assumptions: Wacc: 9.38%, G: 4% , Operating Marging : 23% Current Market Price: $203.90 → Undervalued (~15% upside) Multiple valuation methods (EV/EBITDA, PER, Football Field) suggest a price range between $230–$400 , showing significant upside potential if the bull case plays out. Financial Performance Revenue Growth: Strong historical growth (2019–2024: 21.6% CAGR), with moderated growth forecasted (2024–2029: 6.7% CAGR).

Key Takeaways Enhanced product innovation, digital expansion, and AI-driven personalization position lululemon to capture greater market share, higher margins, and stronger direct-to-consumer growth. Diversification into men's, accessories, and loyalty-driven customer engagement will fuel revenue growth and increase profitability across various consumer segments.

Though the fair value price says it’s overvalued it’s fundamentals are showing great growth and it has great roic and it’s international growth has advanced well especially starting in china,also even if you’re scared about its fall near the beginning of the year it was because of the tariffs and points to grow and rebound from the lose.Also in the middle of the year it’s 52 week high was $423 and fell over 40% in its year to date metric as it is quite undervalued from its previous numbers in North America.In china it’s looking to make upwards of 20 new stores and growing its digital footprint this year their eps beat its expectation 16% more than expected.The only thing the North American Lululemon companies are getting hurt by are the tariffs and once they are gone they will regain profits and can slow capital expenditures and can continue their growth in free cash flow,net income, and returns on invested capital.Also they will regain their original value.I think Lululemon will be a good retail giant if it came overcome some initial flaws. .