Seeking Alpha • Dec 23
Fathom Digital Manufacturing: Early Stages In A Large Market Opportunity
Summary
Fathom has core competence across additive manufacturing and more traditional methods.
Currently sitting at 12 sites, I believe Fathom is poised to gain market share given speed with its growth strategy and optimization plans in place.
I keep a December 2023 price target of $4.03 on the stock, based on the assumed PS multiple of 1.5x and FY23E 176.3 million revenues.
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Thesis
Fathom (FATH) is a tech-agnostic digital manufacturing platform addressing the low volume/high mix TAM of $25B, with a broad range of solutions across 3D printing, injection molding, CNC, and sheet metal fabrication. The firm is EBITDA profitable and positioned to benefit from secular trends in manufacturing, including
a shift from in-house manufacturing to outsourced solutions driving lower capex for customers;
quick turnaround for high-quality products requiring customers to hold less inventory;
interactive software solutions and quick pricing quote.
FATH is currently trading at a forward PS ratio of 0.83x sales compared to the 1.23x sector median and I believe the stock should trade higher owing to the company’s top-line potential growth and margin expansion.
Company Overview
Operating in North America, Fathom Digital Manufacturing Corporation provides digital manufacturing services to over 3K customers. The firm is tech agnostic and provides traditional manufacturing methods along with emerging technologies such as 3D printing. The firm focuses on low to mid-volume manufacturing and has 12 locations across the states with customers across industrial, medical, aerospace, auto, and consumer end markets.
Why do I like FATH?
Fathom’s Growth Strategy addresses a large TAM
As part of the $25 billion low-to-mid volume manufacturing market involving these technologies, Fathom approximates that 40% of production is handled in-house, 55% is delegated to regional design services bureaus, and 5% is serviced by legacy digital manufacturers. The shortcoming of utilizing regional design services, which currently hold the largest market share, is that they are specialized in their offerings and not well positioned to scale production due to labor and capacity constraints. Similarly, legacy manufacturers experience constraints on the flexibility side and inhouse manufacturers have capacity constraints. A part of Fathom’s key growth strategy is taking market share from these areas, which they believe is an easy value add for companies looking to outsource production due to their increased flexibility and capacity offerings.
Thus far, FATH has pointed its attention toward enterprise level corporate customers, leveraging their ability to tackle a wide range of manufacturing complexities and scale production quickly. In the near term, the existing customers will continue to be the focus as the company increases penetration across departments and lines of production (called the “land and expand” model). Over time, the company has a vision to expand the customer base to include other enterprise level corporate companies while retaining legacy customers by maintaining strong relationships. It also plans to grow additive manufacturing capabilities along with software and digital capabilities via organic growth or acquisition.
Currently sitting at 12 sites, I believe Fathom is poised to gain market share given speed with its growth strategy and optimization plans in place and as FCF rebounds in FY23 (FY22 cashflow was affected by restructuring and one-off charges), I think the firm will continue to execute on new site acquisitions.
FATH is exposed to a large TAM (company presentation)
M&A in a highly fragmented space
Fathom has continued to make acquisitions in recent years as the management looks to expand the company’s capabilities and services across sheet metal fabrication, injection molding, and CNC machining. The firm also regularly expands its portfolio of 3D printing capabilities. M&A pipeline has 50+ targeted opportunities with the potential to expand across thousands of companies. I believe it’s likely that the firm will continue to actively pursue M&A, adding new tech but also driving scale and incremental leverage, recognizing synergies post-close of acquisitions, rationalizing locations, and consolidating locations to drive scale benefits. Firm plans also include adding new services and cross-selling existing services to newly acquired client bases.
FATH's pipeline breakdown (company presentation)
Financial Outlook
Revenue Outlook
Fathom’s revenue segments are split by technology: Additive, Injection molding, CNC Machining, Precision Sheetmetal, and Other, which includes finishing work and other services. Revenues are typically recognized when performance obligation has been satisfied. I am looking for ~8% growth in FY22, and ~7.4% in FY23 (in line with the historical growth rate), with relative strength in Additive followed by CNC, Injection molding, Sheetmetal, and other. I believe longer term that the firm can grow high single digits top-line on scale as it expands market share in a fragmented market and expands services across segments and verticals.
FATH's forecasted revenue estimates (my estimates)
Margins and Earnings Outlook
COGs consist of depreciation, raw materials costs, employee costs, and overhead. Near term rising costs of materials weighing on margins coupled with product mix. I think it’s likely that FATHOM will continue to actively pursue M&A, adding new tech but also driving scale and incremental leverage, recognizing synergies post close of acquisitions, rationalizing locations and consolidating locations to drive scale benefits. Firm plans also include adding new services and cross selling existing services to new acquired client bases.
