New Risk • Nov 08
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 3.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (3.6% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€47.0m market cap, or US$50.6m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 07
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 25% After last week's 25% share price gain to €4.84, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 13% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Sep 29
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.14 (vs €0.10 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: €0.14 (up from €0.10 in 1H 2023). Revenue: €29.8m (up 5.5% from 1H 2023). Net income: €1.56m (up 32% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 5.2% (up from 4.2% in 1H 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 09
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.5% to €3.92. The fair value is estimated to be €3.22, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 02
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.9% to €3.86. The fair value is estimated to be €3.22, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 20%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 13
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €3.78, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 23% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • May 01
Upcoming dividend of €0.17 per share at 3.4% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 May 2023. Payment date: 10 May 2023. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). Upcoming Dividend • Apr 25
Upcoming dividend of €0.17 per share at 3.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 02 May 2023. Payment date: 04 May 2023. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to €5.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 13% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 12
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €56.5m to €57.5m. EPS estimate increased from €0.50 to €0.55 per share. Net income forecast to grow 37% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Pharmaceuticals industry in Italy. Consensus price target up from €7.62 to €7.93. Share price rose 6.8% to €4.38 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 06
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to €4.28, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 36% over the past three years. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 8 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (4 non-independent directors). Independent Director Marco Mazzarese was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0 (vs €0.06 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0. Revenue: €23.8m (up 26% from 1H 2021). Net income: €987.0k (up 45% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 3.6% in 1H 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 12
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to €3.30, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 17% over the past year. Upcoming Dividend • May 02
Upcoming dividend of €0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 May 2022. Payment date: 11 May 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 38% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (4.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Director Marco Mazzarese was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Apr 19
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: €0.34 (vs €0.34 in FY 2020). Revenue: €44.8m (up 3.8% from FY 2020). Net income: €3.93m (flat on FY 2020). Profit margin: 8.8% (down from 9.1% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 9.7%, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the pharmaceuticals industry in Italy. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
First half 2021 earnings released The company reported a poor first half result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €18.5m (down 3.5% from 1H 2020). Net income: €681.0k (down 42% from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 3.7% (down from 6.1% in 1H 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 13
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €4.92, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 28% over the past year. Price Target Changed • May 21
Price target decreased to €5.20 Down from €6.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of €4.26. Stock is up 5.4% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 04
New 90-day low: €3.42 The company is down 25% from its price of €4.55 on 05 November 2020. The Italian market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is flat over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €9.14 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 18
New 90-day low: €3.54 The company is down 12% from its price of €4.04 on 20 October 2020. The Italian market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €9.18 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 01
New 90-day low: €3.72 The company is down 10.0% from its price of €4.14 on 01 September 2020. The Italian market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 1.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €7.93 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 26
New 90-day high: €4.39 The company is up 6.0% from its price of €4.14 on 28 July 2020. The Italian market is down 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €9.90 per share. Price Target Changed • Oct 24
Price target lowered to €6.95 Down from €7.53, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is 64% above the current share price of €4.23. As of last close, the stock is down 43% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 02
New 90-day low: €3.97 The company is down 14% from its price of €4.59 on 03 July 2020. The Italian market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €9.64 per share.