Major Estimate Revision • May 05
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. Forecast loss of -€0.03 per share in 2022, versus previous forecasts of €0 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from €3.69b at last update. Hospitality industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 46% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €7.51. Share price was steady at €6.81 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 11
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: €0.12 loss per share (up from €1.91 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: €2.89b (up 30% from FY 2020). Net loss: €37.8m (loss narrowed 92% from FY 2020). Same store sales growth: 39.0% vs FY 2020 Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 100%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 26%, compared to a 44% growth forecast for the restaurants industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 68 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Mar 12
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €2.79b (up 26% from FY 2020). Net loss: €37.8m (loss narrowed 92% from FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 31%, compared to a 46% growth forecast for the restaurants industry in Italy. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 26
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved. 2021 revenue forecast increased from €2.55b to €2.58b. EPS estimate increased from -€0.39 per share to -€0.34 per share. Hospitality industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 38% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €7.22. Share price was steady at €6.91 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 17
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.45 to -€0.36 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €2.55b. Hospitality industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 34% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €7.22. Share price was steady at €6.68 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 23
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.66 to -€0.47 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €2.53b. Hospitality industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 31% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €7.09. Share price rose 7.7% to €6.22 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 03
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: €0.079 loss per share (vs €0.73 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €518.1m (up 134% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: €20.0m (loss narrowed 89% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 88 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Jul 07
Price target increased to €6.39 Up from €5.75, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €6.38. Stock is up 35% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 20
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 losses forecast to reduce from -€1.02 to -€0.90 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from €2.90b at last update. Hospitality industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 41% next year. Consensus price target down from €6.04 to €5.75. Share price fell 8.5% to €6.34 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 13
Price target increased to €6.04 Up from €5.57, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 13% below last closing price of €6.92. Stock is up 67% over the past year. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2021 earnings released: €0.51 loss per share (vs €0.54 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a soft first quarter result with weaker revenues and control over costs, although losses reduced. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €443.1m (down 26% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: €128.3m (loss narrowed 5.3% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 89 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • May 05
Price target increased to €5.87 Up from €5.46, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 17% below last closing price of €7.08. Stock is up 68% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Mar 13
Full year 2020 earnings released: €1.91 loss per share (vs €0.81 profit in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €1.98b (down 63% from FY 2019). Net loss: €479.9m (down 334% from profit in FY 2019). Same store sales growth: Down 59.3% vs FY 2019 Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 87% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 16% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Mar 13
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 72%, compared to a 24% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in Italy. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 02
New 90-day high: €5.83 The company is up 10.0% from its price of €5.31 on 02 December 2020. The Italian market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Hospitality industry, which is up 17% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €12.58 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 26
Analysts lower EPS estimates to -€1.92 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate was lowered from €2.38b to €2.32b. The company's losses are expected to worsen with analysts lowering their EPS forecasts from -€1.73 to -€1.92 for the same period. The Hospitality industry in Italy is expected to see an average net income growth of 43% next year. The consensus price target was lowered from €5.67 to €5.44. Share price is down by 2.2% to €5.22 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 29
New 90-day low: €3.21 The company is down 25% from its price of €4.28 on 30 July 2020. The Italian market is down 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Hospitality industry, which is down 26% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €2.29 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 30
New 90-day low: €3.86 The company is down 18% from its price of €4.73 on 02 July 2020. The Italian market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Hospitality industry, which is down 15% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €2.14 per share.