Notizie in diretta • 1h
Alliance Resource Partners Stock Eyes Growth With AllDale Minerals Royalty Acquisition Alliance Resource Partners agreed to acquire general partner and limited partner interests in AllDale Minerals III and IV.
The deal increases ARLP’s economic interest in AllDale entities and its control over net royalty acres.
The acquisition expands Alliance Resource Partners’ exposure to the northern Delaware, Anadarko, Bakken and Haynesville basins, including entry into the Haynesville gas play.
This move shifts Alliance Resource Partners further into oil and gas royalty interests, which typically carry different risk and cash flow characteristics than its core coal operations.
Investors may want to watch how ARLP manages capital allocation between coal and these royalty assets, and what this means for future commodity exposure and project priorities. Notizie in diretta • Jun 09
Alliance Resource Partners to Acquire Majority Stake in AllDale Minerals for US$206 Million Alliance Resource Partners agreed to acquire additional general partner and limited partner interests in AllDale Minerals III and IV for about US$206.2 million.
After closing, ARLP’s economic interest in AllDale III and IV is expected to move from roughly 5% to 61%.
ARLP will own 100% of the general partner interests in AllDale III and IV and gain exposure to the Permian and Haynesville basins through this deal.
The key takeaway is that ARLP is expanding its oil and gas royalties platform and concentrating more ownership in assets tied to established U.S. resource plays, which changes the mix of its business beyond coal.
Investors may want to pay close attention to how this acquisition is financed, the cash flow profile of the royalty interests, and commodity price exposure linked to the Permian and Haynesville assets. Declared Dividend • Apr 29
First quarter dividend of US$0.60 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.60. Ex-date: 8th May 2026 Payment date: 15th May 2026 Dividend yield will be 9.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not adequately covered by earnings (95% earnings payout ratio) nor is it adequately covered by cash flows (94% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 5.6% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 44% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. New Risk • Apr 28
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 95% Cash payout ratio: 94% Dividend yield: 9.1% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Annuncio • Apr 13
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 27, 2026 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results Pre-Market on Apr 27, 2026 Reported Earnings • Mar 03
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$2.42 (down from US$2.77 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$2.19b (down 10% from FY 2024). Net income: US$311.2m (down 12% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 14% (in line with FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 35% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annuncio • Feb 03
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Year 2026 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. provided earnings Guidance for the year 2026. for the year, the company expected Total Sales from coal operations in the range of 33.75 Tons to 35.25 Tons. Reported Earnings • Feb 03
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$2.42 (down from US$2.77 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$2.19b (down 10% from FY 2024). Net income: US$311.2m (down 12% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 14% (in line with FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.4% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 35% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jan 30
Third quarter dividend of US$0.60 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.60. Ex-date: 6th February 2026 Payment date: 13th February 2026 Dividend yield will be 10%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (137% earnings payout ratio). However, it is covered by cash flows (88% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 53% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 35% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Annuncio • Jan 28
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Approves Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2025, Payable on February 13, 2026 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of ARLP’s general partner approved a cash distribution to its unitholders for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the "2025 Quarter"). ARLP unitholders of record as of the close of trading on February 6, 2026 will receive a cash distribution for the 2025 quarter of $0.60 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.40 per unit), payable on February 13, 2026. Annuncio • Jan 20
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 02, 2026 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results Pre-Market on Feb 02, 2026 Declared Dividend • Oct 31
Third quarter dividend of US$0.60 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.60. Ex-date: 7th November 2025 Payment date: 14th November 2025 Dividend yield will be 11%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (134% earnings payout ratio). However, it is covered by cash flows (88% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 49% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 39% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.74 (up from US$0.66 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$571.4m (down 6.9% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$95.1m (up 12% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 17% (up from 14% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 9.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annuncio • Oct 27
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Updates Sales Guidance for the Full Year Ending December 31, 2025 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. updated sales guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2025. For the year, the company expects total sales tons in the range of 32.50 million short tons to 33.25 million short tons. Annuncio • Oct 13
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 27, 2025 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results at 9:30 AM, US Eastern Standard Time on Oct 27, 2025 Declared Dividend • Jul 31
Second quarter dividend reduced to US$0.60 Dividend of US$0.60 is 14% lower than last year. Ex-date: 7th August 2025 Payment date: 14th August 2025 Dividend yield will be 10%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (151% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (104% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 67% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 40% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Reported Earnings • Jul 29
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.46 (down from US$0.77 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$547.5m (down 7.7% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$59.4m (down 40% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 11% (down from 17% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.4% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annuncio • Jul 14
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 28, 2025 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results Pre-Market on Jul 28, 2025 Declared Dividend • Apr 30
First quarter dividend of US$0.70 announced Dividend of US$0.70 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 8th May 2025 Payment date: 15th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 11%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (132% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (111% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 1.4% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 47% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 47% over the next 3 years, which should be enough to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.58 (down from US$1.21 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$540.5m (down 17% from 1Q 2024). Net income: US$74.0m (down 52% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 14% (down from 24% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 8.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 15% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Annuncio • Apr 14
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 28, 2025 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results Pre-Market on Apr 28, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 19
Insider recently sold US$1.3m worth of stock On the 14th of March, Timothy Whelan sold around 50k shares on-market at roughly US$25.13 per share. This transaction amounted to 35% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$2.6m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Mar 06
Insider notifies of intention to sell stock Timothy Whelan intends to sell 50k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 4th of March. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$24.57, it would amount to US$1.2m. Since June 2024, Timothy's direct individual holding has decreased from 167.95k shares to 143.85k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$4.2m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Feb 13
Insider exercised options and sold US$944k worth of stock On the 10th of February, Kirk Tholen exercised options to acquire 35k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of US$27.28 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. Since March 2024, Kirk has owned 110.40k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$4.2m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from US$2.50b to US$2.35b. EPS estimate also fell from US$3.36 per share to US$2.82 per share. Net income forecast to grow 2.3% next year vs 2.2% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$30.50. Share price fell 3.6% to US$26.62 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 04
Price target increased by 13% to US$31.00 Up from US$27.50, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of US$27.98. Stock is up 41% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.85 for next year compared to US$2.82 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 03
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$2.82 (down from US$4.81 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$2.45b (down 4.6% from FY 2023). Net income: US$360.9m (down 41% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 15% (down from 24% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.4% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 27% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Annuncio • Feb 03
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Provides Sales Guidance for the Full Year Ending December 31, 2025 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. provided sales guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2025. for the year, the company expected Total Sales from coal operations in the range of 32.25 Tones to 34.25 Tones. Declared Dividend • Jan 31
Third quarter dividend of US$0.70 announced Dividend of US$0.70 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th February 2025 Payment date: 14th February 2025 Dividend yield will be 9.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (80% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (124% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 1.4% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 6.3% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annuncio • Jan 29
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution, Payable on February 14, 2025 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of ARLP’s general partner approved a cash distribution to its unitholders for the quarter ended December 31, 2024 (the "2024 Quarter"). ARLP unitholders of record as of the close of trading on February 7, 2025 will receive a cash distribution for the 2024 Quarter of $0.70 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit), payable on February 14, 2025. The announced distribution is consistent with the cash distributions of $0.70 per unit for the quarters ended December 31, 2023 and September 30, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 28
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.5% to US$27.80. The fair value is estimated to be US$22.80, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 32%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 2.4% per annum over the same time period. Annuncio • Jan 20
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 03, 2025 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results Pre-Market on Feb 03, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 13
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 11% to US$27.48. The fair value is estimated to be US$22.73, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 32%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 2.4% per annum over the same time period. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 15
Insider recently sold US$1.1m worth of stock On the 13th of December, Timothy Whelan sold around 40k shares on-market at roughly US$26.58 per share. This transaction amounted to 25% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$1.3m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 05
Insider recently sold US$280k worth of stock On the 2nd of December, Timothy Whelan sold around 10k shares on-market at roughly US$28.00 per share. This transaction amounted to 6.0% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$972k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Dec 01
Insider notifies of intention to sell stock Timothy Whelan intends to sell 100k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 29th of November. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$28.29, it would amount to US$2.8m. Since March 2024, Timothy has owned 167.95k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$8.6m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Declared Dividend • Oct 30
Third quarter dividend of US$0.70 announced Dividend of US$0.70 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th November 2024 Payment date: 14th November 2024 Dividend yield will be 11%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (81% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (124% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 1.6% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 15% over the next 2 years. Since a fall of 10% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.67 (down from US$1.18 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$613.6m (down 3.6% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$86.3m (down 42% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 14% (down from 24% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 22%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 2.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 30% per year. Annuncio • Oct 28
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Declares Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2024, Payable on November 14, 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. approved a cash distribution to unitholders for the 2024 Quarter of $0.70 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit),
payable on November 14, 2024, to all unitholders of record as of the close of trading on November 7, 2024. The announced distribution is consistent with the cash distributions for the 2023 Quarter and Sequential Quarter. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 24
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.1% to US$25.50. The fair value is estimated to be US$21.15, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 21% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 44%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 3.2% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 17% in the next 2 years. Annuncio • Oct 14
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 28, 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results Pre-Market on Oct 28, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 04
Now 20% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at US$25.32. The fair value is estimated to be US$21.04, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 21% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 44%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 3.1% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 17% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 01
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 6.7% to US$24.80. The fair value is estimated to be US$20.54, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 21% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 44%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 3.1% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 16% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jul 30
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.78 (down from US$1.30 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$593.4m (down 7.6% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$100.2m (down 39% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 17% (down from 26% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 20%. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 2.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 44% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 47% per year. Annuncio • Jul 16
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 29, 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results at 9:30 AM, US Eastern Standard Time on Jul 29, 2024 Reported Earnings • Apr 30
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$1.24 (down from US$1.46 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$651.7m (down 1.7% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$158.1m (down 15% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 24% (down from 28% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 20%. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 2.1%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 58% per year. Annuncio • Apr 30
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Reiterates Production Guidance for the Full Year 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. reiterates production guidance for the full year 2024. For the period, the company expects Total Coal Operations Sales Volumes to be in the range of 34.0 million Short Tons to 35.8 Million Short Tons, Oil production of 1,400,000 barrels to 1,500,000 barrels, natural gas of 5,600,000 mcf to 6,000,000 mcf, and liquids of 675,000 barrels to 725,000 barrels. Annuncio • Apr 28
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Declares Distribution for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2024, Payable on May 15, 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of ARLP’s general partner approved a cash distribution to its unitholders for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 (the "2024 Quarter"). ARLP unitholders of record as of the close of trading on May 8, 2024 will receive a cash distribution for the 2024 Quarter of $0.70 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit), payable on May 15, 2024. The announced distribution is consistent with the cash distributions of $0.70 per unit for the quarters ended March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2023. Annuncio • Apr 16
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 29, 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results Pre-Market on Apr 29, 2024 Declared Dividend • Jan 31
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.70 announced Dividend of US$0.70 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 6th February 2024 Payment date: 14th February 2024 Dividend yield will be 13%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (57% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (83% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 2.2% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 33% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 37% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. New Risk • Jan 30
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 11% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 11% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$8.9m sold). Annuncio • Jan 29
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Updates Production Guidance for the Full Year 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Updated production guidance for the full year 2024. For the period, the company expects Total Coal Operations Sales Volumes to be in the range of 34.0 million Short Tons to 35.8 Million Short Tons, Oil production of 1,400,000 barrels to 1,500,000 barrels, natural gas of 5,600,000 mcf to 6,000,000 mcf, and liquids of 675,000 barrels to 725,000 barrels. Annuncio • Jan 27
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2023, Payable on February 14, 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of ARLP’s general partner approved a cash distribution to its unitholders for the quarter ended December 31, 2023 (the "2023 Quarter"). ARLP unitholders of record as of the close of trading on February 7, 2024 will receive a cash distribution for the 2023 Quarter of $0.70 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit), payable on February 14, 2024. Annuncio • Jan 16
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Jan 29, 2024 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results Pre-Market on Jan 29, 2024 Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$1.21 (down from US$1.25 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$636.5m (up 1.3% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$153.7m (down 3.4% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 24% (down from 25% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 91% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 91% per year. Annuncio • Oct 28
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Updates Production Guidance for the Full Year 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Updated production guidance for the full year 2023. For the period, the company expects Total Coal Operations Sales Volumes to be in the range of 34.5 million Short Tons to 35.0 Million Short Tons, Oil production of 1,400,000 barrels to 1,500,000 barrels, natural gas of 4,750,000 mcf to 5,250,000 mcf, and liquids of 565,000 barrels to 615,000 barrels. Annuncio • Oct 14
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 27, 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results Pre-Market on Oct 27, 2023 Board Change • Oct 05
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 1 experienced director. 4 highly experienced directors. Independent Director of Alliance Resource Management GP, LLC Bob Druten was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Annuncio • Aug 01
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Lowers Coal Sales Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. lowered coal sales guidance for the fiscal year 2023. for the year, the company expected Total Sales from coal operations in the range of 35.50 Tones to 36.00 Tones. Reported Earnings • Jul 31
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$1.34 (up from US$1.23 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$641.8m (up 4.1% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$169.8m (up 8.8% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 27% (up from 25% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 102% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 85% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annuncio • Jul 29
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution, Payable on August 14, 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced cash distribution for the 2023 Quarter of $0.70 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit), payable on August 14, 2023. The announced distribution represents a 75% increase over the cash distribution of $0.40 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2022 and is consistent with the cash distribution of $0.70 per unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. Annuncio • Jul 18
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 31, 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results Pre-Market on Jul 31, 2023 Reported Earnings • May 03
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$1.50 (up from US$0.28 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$662.9m (up 44% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$191.2m (up 445% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 29% (up from 7.6% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 108% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 83% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 21
Chairman recently bought US$1.9m worth of stock On the 16th of March, Joseph Craft bought around 100k shares on-market at roughly US$18.60 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Joseph's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Feb 12
Senior VP exercised options and sold US$691k worth of stock On the 8th of February, R. Davis exercised options to acquire 32k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of US$21.61 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. Since March 2022, Davis has owned 140.15k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$2.2m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$2.79b to US$2.85b. EPS estimate fell from US$6.69 to US$5.92 per share. Net income forecast to grow 32% next year vs 0.08% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the US. Consensus price target up from US$29.00 to US$30.00. Share price was steady at US$22.31 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 31
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$4.54 (up from US$1.36 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$2.41b (up 53% from FY 2021). Net income: US$577.2m (up 233% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 24% (up from 11% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 68% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 37% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annuncio • Jan 31
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Provides Sales Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. provided sales guidance for the fiscal year 2023. for the year, the company expected Total Sales from coal operations in the range of 36.0 Tones to 38.0 Tones. Annuncio • Jan 28
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Increases Cash Distribution for the Quarter Ended December 31, 2022, Payable on February 14, 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of ARLP’s general partner approved an increased cash distribution to its unitholders for the quarter ended December 31, 2022 (the "2022 Quarter"). ARLP unitholders will receive a cash distribution for the 2022 Quarter of $0.70 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit), payable on February 14, 2023 to all unitholders of record as of the close of trading on February 7, 2023. The announced distribution represents a 180% increase over the cash distribution of $0.25 per unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2021 and a 40% increase over the cash distribution of $0.50 per unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2022. Annuncio • Jan 17
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Jan 30, 2023 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results Pre-Market on Jan 30, 2023 Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to US$27.42 Up from US$24.08, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 24% above last closing price of US$22.19. Stock is up 116% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$4.18 for next year compared to US$1.36 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$1.29 (up from US$0.44 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$628.4m (up 51% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$164.6m (up 195% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 26% (up from 13% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 24% per year. Annuncio • Oct 29
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Increases Quarterly Distribution for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2022 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that the Board of Directors of ARLP’s general partner approved an increased cash distribution to its unitholders for the quarter ended September 30, 2022 (the "2022 Quarter"). ARLP unitholders will receive a cash distribution for the 2022 Quarter of $0.50 per unit (an annualized rate of $2.00 per unit), payable on November 14, 2022 to all unitholders of record as of the close of trading on November 7, 2022. The announced distribution represents a 150.0% increase over the cash distribution of $0.20 per unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2021 and a 25.0% increase over the cash distribution of $0.40 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2022. Annuncio • Oct 18
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. to Report Q3, 2022 Results on Oct 31, 2022 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. announced that they will report Q3, 2022 results Pre-Market on Oct 31, 2022 Seeking Alpha • Oct 11
Alliance Resource Partners: The Dividend And Capital Gains Will Be Transitory In The Long Term Summary
Alliance Resource Partners is riding a boom in coal prices caused by a combination of unique events.
The company's fortune up until last year was heavily defined by a blossoming ESG movement with high disdain for fossil fuels.
The now faltering old ESG orthodoxy is set to be revived by the recently signed Inflation Reduction Act.
The unprecedented fiscal program is about to catalyse an explosion in the climate economy like never before.
It's truly vast in its scope and scale and stands to create runway adoption of nuclear and renewable power in the United States.
Let's start with the obvious. Coal prices are spiking to new highs as a scramble for energy around the world on the back of post-pandemic economic reopenings and the disruption wrought by Russia's weaponization of energy. EU sanctions have all but shut Russian coal out of its continent and exacerbated a global scramble for the rock. Thermal coal also still remains important for electricity generation around the world. India uses it for 70% of its total electricity needs and China is looking to add 270 GW of coal thermal capacity in the next five years through 2025. Even Germany, Europe's largest economy, has pivoted more heavily to coal in recent months as its nuclear power station shutdowns progressed.
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Tulsa, Oklahoma-based Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is now enjoying a near-generational intersection of unique geopolitical events and policy failures. Indeed, US coal prices have surged to a record high past $200/ton. The party has arrived for thermal coal investors with an increased quarterly dividend payout and positive capital gains fully in the swing of the lyrical beat. However, the market sentiment has failed to consider the bigger picture, and whilst the ESG movement might have been too euphoric on its initial timelines for the runway adoption of renewables, the recently signed Inflation Reduction Act represents a step change for the industry. To be clear, coal remains fundamentally incompatible with the drive towards net zero. The Act looks to allocate at least $370 billion to accelerate the drive towards net zero over the next decade.
Coal bulls need to understand that this is not the fringe dreams of a small number of environmentalists. It represents what is fast becoming the single most defining change in contemporary American history. The Inflation Reduction Act is simply unprecedented in its scope and scale and represents the most pertinent effort by any government on earth and against any time in human history to heavily influence the winds of change for its entire energy system. The incentives included in the act go beyond the initial $370 billion cost. They will fast become the ignition that sees coal's contribution to the US electricity grid continue to realize a permanent decline.
US Demand For Coal Is Eroding As Renewables Become Even Cheaper
Coal's contribution to the US electricity grid has been on a structural decline since the start of the new millennium as natural gas took over and renewables experienced explosive growth from a few hundred MWs in the 90s.
Energy Information Association
Analysts from Credit Suisse in late October published a research note on the Act that highlights just how staggering in scope it is. Firstly, the Act might spend twice as much as the currently earmarked $370 billion figure as many important provisions including subsidies for solar and utility-scale battery storage systems are uncapped tax credits.
Essentially, the US government has written a blank check to the renewable industry. The frequently cited figure is wrong. As long as a project meets the terms, the government will award credits. There is no upper ceiling, no budget, and no restrictions. The Act's total spending is likely to be more than $800 billion, 2x more than what the frequently cited figure. When you adjust for the crowding-in effects of private capital layering on top of government subsidies, the total allocated capital into technologies that compete directly with coal could top $1.7 trillion over the next decade until 2032.
Consultants from the Boston Consulting Group have estimated that the incentives included in the Act could increase the deployment of zero-carbon energy to up to 80% of electricity production as soon as 2030. This would be ahead of the Energy Information Association chart and would see coal fall to a single-digit per cent by the end of this decade. US solar and wind by 2029 could be the cheapest in the world at less than $5 per MWh due to the Act with utility-scale solar deployments alone set to increase by 40%, around 62 GW, over pre-IRA projections through 2027.
Hence whilst the ESG orthodoxy is under siege from the rapacious rise of coal and oil in this distinctive and unique period, it is set to bloom again. The USA's zero-carbon transition, seemingly faltering, has been resuscitated with the terms of the Act that can only be described as an 800-pound gorilla crushing anything that does not adhere to its scope and requirements.
The Party Will Come To An End But Not Before Risks
Alliance Resource Partners has seen its market cap rise to $3.10 billion on the back of rising coal prices. However, the company's broader valuation is understandably still quite favourable to its bulls with its price to trailing 12-months non-GAAP earnings multiple at 10.34x. Whilst this is higher than its sector median, its drops to 5.11x when forward earnings are considered.
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This represents the most pertinent risk for a contrarian bearish view of the company. The financials are improving with revenue growing to $616 million for its fiscal 2022 second quarter, up 70.1% from its year-ago quarter. Coal prices could stay at their elevated levels for years which would support increased dividend payouts and further gains on the common shares. 