NatWest Group Dividendi e riacquisti
Criteri Dividendo verificati 4/6
NatWest Group è una società che paga dividendi con un rendimento attuale pari a 5.56%, ben coperto dagli utili.
Informazioni chiave
5.6%
Rendimento del dividendo
-1.4%
Rendimento del riacquisto
| Rendimento totale per gli azionisti | 4.1% |
| Rendimento futuro dei dividendi | 7.6% |
| Crescita dei dividendi | 29.9% |
| Prossima data di pagamento dei dividendi | n/a |
| Data di stacco del dividendo | n/a |
| Dividendo per azione | n/a |
| Rapporto di remunerazione | 46% |
Aggiornamenti recenti su dividendi e riacquisti
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 02
NatWest Group Q1: Earnings Resilient Despite Rising Credit Costs
Summary Despite booking higher provisions, British bank NatWest Group still managed to post solid double-digit earnings growth last quarter. A more downbeat assessment of key U.K. macro indicators drove a 50% year-on-year rise in credit charges, though actual impairments remain modest. NWG's revenue continues to grow strongly thanks to the ongoing repricing of its deposit hedge. NWG only trades for around 1.4x tangible book value. This looks too cheap relative to its profitability and growth prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 08
NatWest: 7% Forward Dividend Yield Makes It An Attractive Income Play (Upgrade)
Summary NatWest Group plc's strong 2024 performance, driven by resilient earnings and strategic moves, positions it well for future dividend and earnings growth despite lower interest rates. The U.K. government's reduced stake and NatWest's solid capital position support its return to full private ownership and robust shareholder returns. NatWest's net interest income increased by 2.2% YoY, supported by a stable net interest margin, a higher loan book, and structural hedge income. With a forward dividend yield of about 7% and a solid capital position, NWG stock is an attractive income play in the European banking sector. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 08
NatWest: What's Next For The Stock After Surging 165%
Summary The NatWest share price has doubled since 2023 and has added another 19% YTD, fuelled by standout Q4 results, where net income rose 8.1% and EPS by 11.7%. Despite a conservative FY25 net income guidance in relation to consensus, NatWest’s fundamentals remain robust, with a strong CET1, rising NIM, and healthy loan and deposit growth. Strategic moves like the Sainsbury’s Bank acquisition and enhanced credit card offerings should boost income and market share, with credit card stock share improving in FY24. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 15
NatWest: Medium-Term Earnings Set To Remain Elevated
Summary NatWest reported a reasonable set of fourth quarter figures, with revenue and net income both beating consensus, while operating costs were a little softer than expected. The outlook for the bank's earnings has been improving, supported by 'higher for longer' interest rates and the knock-on implication for structural hedge income. These shares now trade for ~1.3x tangible book value. Although this looks rich, medium-term earnings can support a premium multiple, while capital return potential also remains compelling. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 02
NatWest: Time To Rightsize After Giant Rise In 2024
Summary NatWest was the FTSE 100's best bank stock with an 82% return in 2024, driven by impressive earnings growth and NIM. The bank maintains robust fundamentals and expects continued strength from structural hedge income, although growth potential may be limited by the lack of investment banking income. While healthy earnings growth and a strong dividend policy are a plus, the significant stock price appreciation in 2024 appears to have largely priced in positive catalysts, suggesting limited near-term upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 23
NatWest Q3 2024 Earnings Preview: Positive Performance Trend May Continue
Summary NatWest is expected to report resilient Q3 2024 earnings, continuing its positive trend, supported by stable net interest margin and lower government ownership. The bank's net interest income and margins have been resilient despite lower rates, aided by strategic mortgage lending and structural hedges. Operating efficiencies and good asset quality have led to lower costs and contained loan loss provisions, contributing to strong net income and ROE. Despite recent share price rally, NatWest's valuation at 0.91x book value suggests limited upside potential due to expected negative impact of lower rates ahead. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 31
NatWest: Another Exceptional Quarter
Summary Shares of NatWest have continued their strong run, outperforming the wider European financials space by around 17 points since my last piece back in May. The second quarter's results were impressive. While provisioning drove much of the bottom-line beat, net interest income and pre-provision earnings were also stronger than expected. These shares aren't expensive if you accept management's medium-term financial targets, but with U.K. peer Lloyds at a similar valuation, I prefer it to NatWest at this point. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 11
NatWest: Recent Rally Leaves Shares Fully Valued (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Shares of British bank NatWest have risen sharply since my last update, significantly outperforming its European peer group. Q1 results were strong. While asset quality largely drove the bottom-line beat, net interest income and margin were both better than expected, with recent headwinds easing. As a result of the strong share price performance, NatWest has now re-rated to around 1.1x tangible book value, leaving little margin of safety relative to management's medium-term profitability goals. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 02
NatWest Group: Continued Loan Growth Encouraging Despite Pressure On Net Interest Income
Summary NatWest Group has seen short-term pressure on earnings. However, loans to customers have continued to see an increase. With consumer confidence in the UK rising, ECL provisions are showing signs of a decrease. I continue to take a bullish view on NatWest Group. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 22
NatWest: Shares Remain Cheap Despite Reduced Financial Targets
Summary NatWest stock has done well since my last update post-Q3, returning almost 40% in that time and outperforming its peer group. Q4 results landed better than expected, with the market shrugging off reduced medium-term financial goals that were already well anticipated. These shares still trade comfortably below tangible book value despite the recent share price move, continuing to offer a nice margin of safety to the ongoing value case. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 17
NatWest: Challenging Operating Environment May Lead To A Lower Share Price
Summary NatWest Group offers a high dividend yield, but its weak operating performance justifies waiting for a lower price to enter a position. The bank's financial performance has improved due to rising interest rates, but its growth prospects are muted, and it faces competition in the UK banking market. NatWest's net interest income has been soft, and its fees and commissions have performed better. However, its outlook for 2024 is challenging, leading to a negative earnings momentum. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 28
NatWest: A Poor Q3 Doesn't Justify The Drop
Summary NatWest reported a pretty poor Q3, with misses on net interest income and pre-provision income sending the shares sharply lower. The shares have fallen to levels last seen in early 2021, when interest rates were at rock bottom and the bank was much less profitable than it is currently. At just under 0.7x tangible book value, these shares remain too cheap relative to the bank's earnings power and capital returns potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 18
NatWest Group: Customer Loan Growth Remains Strong Despite Macroeconomic Pressures
Summary NatWest Group has continued to see strong growth in loans to customers. ECL provisions for the Leisure segment have also declined. I take a bullish view of NWG. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 27
NatWest: U.K. Bank Looks Cheap But Faces A Downbeat Economy
Summary NatWest remains a profitable UK bank with shares appearing cheap, but medium-term risks due to the weak British economy are concerning. The bank's dividend yield is around 6%, but its dividend history is erratic, making it difficult to predict future payouts. Despite potential long-term value, I rate NatWest as a "hold" until the UK economy shows signs of strength. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 17
NatWest: Good Performance, But A Hold
Summary NatWest Group offers a dividend yield above 5% based on ordinary dividends, but this is below its peer’s average in the European banking sector. The bank has a relatively low-risk business profile and has improved its financial performance in recent years, but growth prospects are limited due to its large exposure to the domestic market. Despite an attractive dividend yield, there are better alternatives within the European banking sector, such as Intesa. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 17
NatWest GAAP EPS of 13.10p, total income of £3.71B; issues outlook for FY23 and beyond
NatWest press release (NYSE:NWG): Q4 GAAP EPS of 13.10p. Total income of £3.71B (+42.7% Y/Y). The liquidity coverage ratio of 145%, representing £52.0B headroom above 100% minimum requirement, decreased by 27 percentage points compared with 2021. The CET1 ratio of 14.2% was 170 basis points lower than the position on 1 January 2022 principally reflecting distributions and linked pension accruals of c.310 basis points partially offset by the attributable profit, c.190 basis points. RWAs of £176.1B were £0.2B lower than 1 January 2022 as lending growth and model changes were offset by a £5.7B reduction in the Republic of Ireland. Outlook 2023: "We continue to expect to achieve a return on tangible equity for the Group of 14-16%. Income excluding notable items for the Group is expected to be around £14.8 billion and full year NIM around 3.20%, based on a Bank of England base rate of 4.00% through the remainder of 2023. We expect to deliver a Group cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) below 52% or around £7.6 billion of Group operating costs, excluding litigation and conduct costs. We expect to generate and return significant capital to shareholders through 2023." Medium term: "We continue to target a sustainable return on tangible equity for the group of 14-16% over the medium term. We expect to deliver a Group cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) of less than 50%, by 2025. We expect that RWAs could increase by a further 5-10% by the end of 2025, including the impact of Basel 3.1. We expect to continue to generate and return significant capital via ordinary dividends and buybacks to shareholders over the medium term and continue to expect that the CET1 ratio will be in the range of 13-14%."Seeking Alpha • Jan 23
NatWest: A Banking Phoenix Has Risen
Summary NatWest is a British Bank, which at one point was the largest in the world by assets. Since then, the business was bailed out and spent a decade restructuring itself. We believe macro conditions will continue to weaken, but believe NatWest is positioned well due to a quality loan book and interest gains. The business is now highly profitable and is benefiting from higher interest rates. Relative to its European peers, NatWest is performing extremely well. Their net interest margin is market-leading, which bodes well in the medium term. We see 11% upside in the stock, with the 4% dividend being maintainable. Company description NatWest Group plc (NWG/RBSPF) provides banking and financial services to personal, corporate, commercial, and institutional customers internationally, with its primary market being the UK. NatWest operates through the following segments: Retail Banking - offers a range of traditional services, including current and credit accounts, mortgages, personal lending and deposits, banking and other retail services. Commercial Banking - offers a range of business services to companies of all sizes, including institutional customers. RBS International - offers products and services to institutional customers internationally, alongside offshore services for local markets. Private Banking - offers a range of private banking and wealth management products to high-net-worth individuals and their business. NatWest Markets - offers clients support with the management of financial risks for achieving short-term and long-term sustainable financial goals. This is the investment banking arm of the Group. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. They are one of the Big 5 banks in the UK, alongside HSBC, Barclays (BCS), Lloyds (LYG) and Santander (SAN). Many have not heard of RBS / NatWest so it may be worth giving a quick history lesson. At one point, NatWest was the largest bank in the world by assets. Shortly after this the business failed. The business grew by expansion and in Oct08 they took over ABN AMRO for EUR 71BN, the largest financial deal in history. Unfortunately, the financial crisis followed suit, leading to liquidity issues, the largest UK corporate loss in history and eventually a bail out by the British Government. It is one of the greatest corporate failures in history. The following illustrates the decade long change in the business: NatWest business change (Tikr Terminal) Although the start to this paper is negative, things have turned around. The UK Government is no longer majority shareholder, believing the business is now financially secure. The business has posted several years of net profitability, following 9 consecutive years of loss-making. Now is a great time to consider the quality of the business. We have previously looked at Barclays (linked) and HSBC (linked), having looked favourably on both. We will consider the economic conditions currently, what the turnaround has resulted in and what the outlook for the business is. Macroeconomic considerations: During much of 2022, we saw a reversal in fortunes with markets falling and growth slowing. The primary contributing factor for this was inflation. This is being driven by many factors including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, aggressive money printing during 2020/2021, a decade of record low interest rates and supply chain disruptions. The response to this has been interest rate hikes, with the US going for a gradual approach and UK making fewer large increases. The UK's interest rate currently sits at 3.5%, with markets expecting it to peak at 4.75% in 2023. The impact on inflation has mediocre in the UK. The US has seen successive months of falling inflation, but the UK has yet to see a reversal. The reason for this is energy prices, which is a far larger issue for European countries than the US. Moving onto growth, the UK is very marginal, having exceeded expectations by growing at 0.1% in November. This is on the back of strong services performance. It is clear that heightened interest rates are taking their toll, with daily news articles on the cost-of-living crisis. Consumers are suffering from both greater borrowing costs and greater expenditure, with wage inflation lagging. It is unsurprising that consumer sentiment is at record low levels, reflecting this. UK Consumer Confidence (Trading Economics) Going forward into 2023, our view is that a recession feels highly likely. Rates hikes are still required, and demand can only remain so resilient. This could lead to a sharper decline in inflation, but things will likely stabilize in early 2024. We are seeing evidence of this on the yield curve, which is sharply inverted in late 2022. Notably, this is the 10Y / 3M curve which historically has inverted immediately preceding a recession. 10Y / 3M yield curve ((FRED)) With NatWest being a bank, the impact on them is very complex. Firstly, with interest rates increasing, the bank has scope to increase its revenue should it be able to pass on rate hikes without paying out an equal amount of additional interest. Net interest margin has increased 600 bps since FY20, to an impressive 82% (Net int / interest income - Source: Tikr Terminal). What is significant here is the scope to generate outsized future returns. In the UK, most people fix their mortgage for 2-3 years and then subsequently remortgage for the same period. With rates increasing, many people are having to remortgage at much higher rates and are locking in for longer periods out of fears for where rates could go. NatWest is one of the largest mortgage providers in the UK and is highly considered by consumers. Therefore, we believe the scope for greater interest income into the future is highly likely, even if rates begin aggressively falling from Q4 onwards. On the opposing side, demand falling is a concern. The yield curve inversion is an illustration of investors' concern about the future of the economy, seeking the safety of long-dated bonds, driving down yields. This leads to a problem for banks, who borrow short to lend long, thus acting as a deterrent for expansionary lending. The net impact of both has yet to be seen but we believe the heightened interest rate level adds a nuance which could mean a soft landing for NatWest, meaning outperformance relative to expectations. Banking industry Looking more long-term, we will now consider the key themes in the banking industry and how NatWest is navigating these. Fintech/payments/challenger banks: The rise of fintech businesses, specifically challenger banks and payments, has been a great wave in the UK. Revolut, the leading challenger bank in the UK, was valued at $33BN in its most recent funding round. The explosion in these businesses stem from historical under investment in digital platforms by the traditional banks due to post financial crisis issues and record low interest rates. Even still, the UK banking and payments industry was far more developed than most countries, yet consumers sought further improvements. Businesses like Monzo, Revolut and Starling offered such services and have gained market share. In response, NatWest and others have improved their services, but it is difficult to draw back consumers who have left and are now happy. Long term, competition will remain high, but we are not overly concerned. The reason for this is that the banking industry in Europe is inherently unattractive compared to other regions, such as the US. The reason for this is heavy regulation following the financial crisis. For this reason, it is difficult to be profitable while maintaining high quality services and so the transition to profitability for these fintech businesses will be difficult. Wealth management: Deloitte sees wealth management within banks as a great opportunity, impacted by macro conditions. Customers are seeking a holistic service with more tailored client-centric offerings, as opposed to a product suite. NatWest is a player in this market but is dwarfed by both some of the other Big 5 and specialist wealth managers. The UK market is highly mature, dating back hundreds of years, with many of the largest players having over a century track record (f.e. Brewin Dolphin, James Hambro and Rothschild). NatWest's value here comes with Coutts, the 331-year-old secretive bank for the rich. It is famous for having an impressive client list which included the late Queen Elizabeth of England. Although scale is not available (Coutts operates independently without a banking workforce), this is a great selling point for NatWest as it is arguably the most famous standalone private bank in the world. The opportunities for cross-selling are very high. Investment banking, market infrastructure and commercial services: NatWest has scaled its investment banking service bank significantly, but still provides some services. The majority of its non-consumer facing business is now in the commercial space. NatWest holds the largest share of current accounts in Great Britain for businesses with a turnover greater than £2m. The expectation from this sector is similar to what we have already identified, further innovation and investment in services. With economic conditions weakening, businesses will look for more flexible support and a partnership-like relationship with their bank. NatWest has recently won awards for private placement dealing and money market activities. Retail banking services: As part of their 2023 banking outlook, Deloitte believes there will be greater pressure on banks to develop their product offering, ensuring they are supporting consumers in many different facets. This involves support services for those struggling, greater complementary services, ESG development and innovation. NatWest has won many awards for customer service and generally is well regarded in the UK, when compared to the other Big 5. Further, EY have found that UK banks are leaders in governance and ESG reporting and incorporating key social factors into their strategy. Overall, the banking industry's key theme is innovation. Consumers and corporates are looking for improvements in services and a more expansive and flexible offering. NatWest has shown some evidence to suggest it is a market leader, but equally has much scope to improve. With bank conditions potentially improving in the medium-term, it is now a great time to reinvest in their services. Financials: When considering NatWest's financials, we must accept that the business has been in an incredibly large turnaround which is likely unfinished. The business has transformed from an unsustainable high-flying international bank to a more focused, sustainable retail and commercial bank. For this reason, comparisons to prior periods can be deceiving, nonetheless the comparison gives us a peg. We believe the first phase transformation was complete in 2017, as net profitability was achieved for the first time in 9 years. For this reason, we have a variance comparison to both FY14 and FY17. NWG Financials (Tikr Terminal) As mentioned previously, net interest income margin has improved, although earnings have remained flat across the historical period. The business has moved away from non-core services, which we observe as a reduction in non-interest income and expense. These services were generally low margin and have fundamentally changed post financial crisis. Loan provisions look to normalized to a realistic level now, although 2023 could lead to an uptick in defaults. NatWest's loan book currently looks much healthier, so we see no material risk present. Currently, non-performing loans represent only 1.5% of their book, a record low level. NatWest book (Q3 pack) Noise in the financials is finally disappearing, with discontinued operations and unusual items falling in size. These primarily relate to historic M&A activity, which again is no longer attractive. The current process relates to the disposal of Ulster Bank assets in the RoI to AIB.Seeking Alpha • Jan 17
NatWest: Remains Attractive Long-Term Despite A Monster Q4 Rally
Summary European bank stocks, believe it or not, are not far from decade-highs (total return) after a historic Q4 run up. 3rd-ranked NatWest Group has been one of the industry leaders. Should the UK sidestep a recession, there could be more upside in this de-risk financials stock. European financials are on an absolute tear. The group, as measured by the iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (EUFN), of once-beaten-down equities has surged more than 40% from its double-bottom low back in September and October to the highest weekly settle since February of last year. A stronger euro currency and broad return to favor of ex-US stocks have been major wins for the space along with reduced chances of a protracted recession in the Euro Area. One bank has enjoyed a monster rally from a few months ago. But is there still value in shares of NatWest Group? And is the chart over-extended? Let’s check it out. European Financials Fun! Stockcharts.com According to Bank of America Global Research, NatWest Group plc (NWG) is primarily a UK-focused retail and commercial banking business. It carries out similar activities in the Republic of Ireland and has a relatively small broader international presence. Investment banking activities have been scaled down substantially and are now primarily aimed at servicing the company's corporate customers. The Edinburgh, Scotland-based $34.8 billion market cap Banks industry company within the Financials sector trades at a low 11.5 trailing 12-month GAAP price-to-earnings ratio and pays a high 4.0% dividend yield, according to The Wall Street Journal. NWG’s management team remains focused on cutting costs to improve its balance sheet. It appears poised to benefit from an eventual turnaround in the UK economy, though a recession in the country could be in the works this year. With shareholder accretive activities but a recent troubling earnings report and profit warning, there are mixed signals. On valuation, analysts at BofA see earnings having risen sharply in 2022. Another year of impressive per-share profit growth is seen in 2023 before EPS growth slows a bit by 2024. In terms of ADR EPS adjusted to USD, earnings are steeply on the rise, and the stock trades at just a 12 forward operating earnings multiple, but that is up a lot from depressed levels in 2022. Even still, the bank’s price-to-book value remains under 1, and NWG’s trailing 12-month dividend yield is slightly higher than its 5-year historical average, according to Seeking Alpha. I continue to like the valuation, but it is no longer a screaming buy. Readers should be encouraged, however, but NWG’s impressive 3rd ranking in the Financials sector. NatWest: Earnings, Valuation, Dividend Yield Forecasts BofA Global Research Looking ahead, corporate event data from Wall Street Horizon show a confirmed Q4 2022 earnings date of Friday, February 17 BMO. The calendar is light on volatility catalysts aside from next month’s reporting date. Corporate Event Calendar Wall Street Horizon The Technical Take NWG is coming off a monster week. Shares surged from near $6.80 to nearly $7.50. After a more than 40% run-up since late September, I see the stock has entered a potential resistance point. Notice in the chart below that shares have found some trouble in the $7 to $8 area. I noted that about $7 was first resistance in my September post, so some profit-taking here makes sense. What’s bullish, though, is that the stock featured a false breakdown in October, under $5. Technicians like to say that from false moves come fast moves in the opposite direction. That played out, but the rally might have run its course. Still, there’s ample volume by price in the $5.50 to $6.50 range, so scooping up shares on a retreat to that zone is a prudent move.Seeking Alpha • Nov 05
NatWest: Benefiting From Higher Interest Rates But Questions Open On Costs
Summary NatWest produced a mixed set of third quarter results. Revenue generation was solid, but costs came in higher than expected, with forward OpEx guidance pulled. NatWest is very rate sensitive and net interest income dominates its top line. It looks set to be a big winner, given U.K. interest rates are firmly on the increase. The economic outlook is getting worse in the country, and the bank's impairment guidance could prove too optimistic. Nevertheless, these shares look cheap at a discount to tangible book value. As I said the first two times I covered it on Seeking Alpha, "two steps forward, one step back" has very much been the story of NatWest Group's (NWG) arduous transition from global banking giant to stodgy, dividend-paying domestic retail outfit. In fairness to the group, whereas most of its woes have previously been self-inflicted, the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the subsequent deterioration of the U.K.'s economic outlook isn't something you can lay at the door of management past or present. Still, third quarter results released last week won't do anything to dispel the very mixed sentiment that surrounds the bank. As it happens, the stock has done well since my last piece back in March. The calculation is a bit messier than usual (there was a 13-for-14 share consolidation last quarter on the back of a 16.8p per share special dividend), but by my count NatWest has returned over 20% all said and done since then. That is in GBP terms for the London-listed shares, with the dollar-denominated ADRs having done worse due to sterling's weakness (or rather, the greenback's strength). Data by YCharts Looking ahead, these are interesting times for the bank. Getting a handle on potential bad debt isn't easy given how volatile the economic situation is, while the firm has also delivered a curveball of its own in the form of vague operating cost guidance. At the same time, the bank will be a big winner now that rates in the U.K. are marching higher. With that set to power income growth in the coming quarters, these shares still look cheap to me, notwithstanding the poor U.K. economic landscape. Buy. Benefiting From Higher Rates While third quarter results were not well received by the market, one area where NatWest is undeniably doing well is net interest income ("NII"), with the bank finally able to reap the benefits of a concentrated banking market and strong core deposit franchise now that rates are firmly on the up. As a reminder, about 40% of NatWest's £450bn customer deposits are non-interest bearing. Data Source: NatWest Quarterly Results Releases NII in the go-forward group came in at £2,634m in Q3, an increase of over 40% year-on-year and 14% sequentially and above the consensus estimate. That was driven by higher deposit margins, with net interest margin up 27bps sequentially to 2.99%, and higher volumes, with bank interest earning assets up almost £10bn sequentially to £349.9bn. Gross loans to customers in the go-forward group increased 2.7% sequentially to £347bn, with solid growth in both Retail (+2.2%) and Commercial & Institutional (+3.4%). Focus Turns To Costs While revenue came in slightly ahead of the consensus estimate, it was expenses that provided the source of the market's disappointment. Go-forward group operating expenses were £1,782m, down 2% year-on-year but up 5% sequentially. That was higher than expected and led to a miss on pre-provision operating income, though it was forward guidance that provoked the market's ire, with management pulling its previously flat outlook for 2023 operating expenses. Inflation is obviously putting upward pressure on the cost base, but given the bank affirmed previous guidance as recently as its Q2 results release, this move seems a bit odd. What's more, the bank declined to offer any fresh guidance on the issue. The provisioning line also came in higher than expected. The bank booked a net impairment charge of just over £240m for the go-forward group, albeit with that reflecting changes to its economic modeling rather than issues with its own assets. That led to a miss on operating profit, which at £1,242m was 20% higher than a year ago but down the same amount sequentially. The Outlook Consumer health and the U.K.'s economic outlook have obviously deteriorated a lot in recent months. NatWest's lending book is about as run-of-the-mill as it gets, with more than half of loans in fixed rate residential mortgages; it is sitting on a lot of capital (CET1 was 14.3% at the end of Q3); and it generates significant pre-impairment operating income (on track for over £5.5bn this year to absorb potential increases in bad debt. Guidance on that front has been tweaked slightly. Management still expects the full-year 2022 impairment charge to remain sub-10bps, but the 2023 guidance has been upped slightly to 20-30bps, in line with its across-the-cycle figure. On the plus side, net interest income is going to be a big positive here going into 2023 and beyond. NatWest is very rate sensitive, with management estimating a 25bps parallel upward shift in the yield curve would result in a £276m increase in NII in year one. As a rough guide, I make that around twice the sensitivity of peer Lloyds Banking Group (LYG). With the base rate now at 3% and likely heading higher that is going to be a big tailwind to revenue and earnings over the next few years given NII dominates its revenue. Indeed, even the low-end of analyst estimates has pre-provision earnings rising by 25% out to 2024 versus 2022.Seeking Alpha • Oct 28
NatWest GAAP EPS of 1.90p, total income of €3.23B
NatWest press release (NYSE:NWG): Q3 GAAP EPS of 1.90p. Revenue of €3.23B (+20.1% Y/Y). Excluding notable items, income in the Go-forward group increased by £923 million, or 36.8%, compared with Q3 2021 principally reflecting the impact of volume growth, increased transactional related fees and yield curve movements. Bank net interest margin of 2.99% was 27 basis points higher than Q2 2022 driven by the impact of base rate rises. CET1 ratio of 14.3% was flat on Q2 2022 as the attributable profit and reduction in RWAs was offset by accruals for foreseeable dividends and pension contributions. Outlook 2023: "In 2023, we continue to expect to achieve our planned return on tangible equity in the range of 14-16%. However, reflecting changes in the economic outlook since H1 2022, the composition of those returns will be different: Income will be higher supported by higher interest rates. We no longer expect costs to be broadly stable given increased inflationary pressures. Our loan book is performing well, and while we expect impairments to increase, we remain comfortable with our through the cycle impairment loss rate guidance of 20-30 basis points, including in 2023." Outlook 2022: "At today’s Bank of England base rate of 2.25% we expect 2022 income excluding notable items to be around £12.8 billion in the Go-forward group. We expect NIM to be greater than 2.80% for full year 2022 in the Go-forward group."Seeking Alpha • Sep 27
NatWest Group: Management Returns A Huge Amount To Shareholders
Summary Interest rate hikes in the UK means more income for the bank. In addition to a strong dividend, a large share buyback program is one item of the capital allocation program for shareholders. The strong capital allocation to shareholders is expected to continue for 2022 and 2023. This makes the stock worth buying. Introduction NatWest (NWG) is a retail, commercial, and private bank from the United Kingdom. With a total income of £10.5 billion in 2021, it is one of the UK's medium-sized banks. Return on tangible book value is strong at 9.4% and the bank has been returning a lot to shareholders since 2021. In addition to a strong dividend, a large share buyback program is one item of the capital allocation program for shareholders. The UK government owns approximately 47% of the outstanding shares and the stake is being reduced as NatWest is purchasing their shares. Interest rate hikes in the UK means more income for the bank. This also carries a risk of a recession, in which case NatWest will have to adjust its ECL provisions. Still, I see a rosy outlook for the share price. NatWest paid out a special dividend this year with a special dividend yield of no less than 7%. The regular dividend yield will be around 4.5%. In addition to paying a high dividend, NatWest repurchases their own shares. In the first half year of 2022, the buyback yield was a solid 8%. The strong capital allocation to shareholders is expected to continue for 2022 and 2023. This makes the stock worth buying. Bank of England Raises Interest Rates Bank of England raised interest rates to 2.25% to curb high inflation. UK GDP fell -0.1% in the last quarter and the Bank expects a similar decline in the next quarter, triggering a recession. With higher energy and food prices, the Bank of England does not expect an inflation peak until October. In July inflation was over 10%, five times the Bank's target rate. Chancellor Kwarteng announced on Friday 30 measures to financially support households and stimulate the economy, such as tax cuts, new investment zones and acceleration of infrastructure projects. Although an economic recession sounds bad, a drop of -0.1% doesn't seem that significant to me. I'm still cautious about that statement, a recession remains a risk for NatWest. The unemployment rate for the UK is still at an unprecedented low of 3.6%. For NatWest, this means it may need to adjust its ECL provisions in the coming quarter. SA contributor Discount Fountain showed that there are approximately equal numbers of ECL provisions for both the personal segment and the wholesale segment. Particularly in the leisure segment of the bank, high ECL provisions are on the books. This is an industry that will see volatility during recessionary periods. Over the past six months, the ECL provision ratio has been reduced from 0.98% to 0.93%. An ECL coverage ratio of 0.93% is generally very low, especially when compared to major US banks. Compared to British banks, NatWest's risk profile is moderate. Management returns a huge amount to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. The payment of dividends and share buybacks are part of their shareholder distribution strategy. In 2021 it bought back £1,125 million worth of shares through the UK government's stake and £676 million through the market buyback program. A total of £1,801 million worth of shares was repurchased. The market cap traded at £15.2 billion in early 2021, bringing the total repurchase yield to a solid 11.8%. The stock rose 47% excluding dividend payments. In addition to its robust share buyback program, it paid a dividend of 10.5 pence per share, which means a solid 6.6% dividend yield when investors bought the shares in early 2021. In the second quarter 2022 earnings transcript, CEO Alison Rose describes the following: Our common equity Tier 1 ratio is now 14.3%, and we have been clear about our intention to return excess capital to shareholders. We are declaring an interim dividend of [£0.035] per share which represents £366 million towards our distribution of at least £1 billion this year. We're also announcing today a proposed special dividend of £1.75 billion with a share consolidation. In addition to the directed buyback of £1.2 billion in March, this brings total distributions announced for the first half to £3.3 billion. And we have also recently completed the £750 million on-market buyback announced in February. The shareholder distribution will continue in 2022. This year, NatWest has bought back £1.95bn of its own shares, of which £750m was on-market and £1.2bn from the UK government. The total buyback yield was a solid 8%, but the share price has barely changed. The large special dividend payment could have affected the share price. In addition to the regular dividend, NatWest paid a special dividend of 16.8 pence per share on September 16 (approximately 7% special dividend yield). On record date, the stock price adjusts for later dividend payment.Seeking Alpha • Jul 29
NatWest GAAP EPS of €11.00, total income of €104M
NatWest press release (NYSE:NWG): 1H net profit of €11.00. Total income of €104M (-6.3% Y/Y).Seeking Alpha • Jul 16
NatWest Group: An Analysis Of ECL Provisions
NatWest Group is a leading retail and commercial bank in the United Kingdom. While NatWest has seen a recovery in the past two years, higher ECL provisions across the Leisure segment and slowing mortgage demand could be potential risk factors. Should significant growth in net interest income not materialize going forward, then the stock could see some risk of downside. Investment Thesis: While NatWest (NWG) has seen a recovery in the past two years, higher ECL provisions across the Leisure segment and slowing mortgage demand could be potential risk factors. NatWest Group is a leading retail and commercial bank in the United Kingdom. In spite of a sharp drop during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the bank's share price has seen an impressive recovery. investing.com However, with inflation having become a big macroeconomic concern - there is a risk that NatWest could see a potential decline in growth if there is a significant pullback in overall consumer confidence. The purpose of this article is to determine whether NatWest could continue to see upside from here in spite of inflation risks. Performance One significant gauge of risk for the bank is the company's expected credit loss (or ECL). In order to gauge the degree to which this has changed over a longer-term period - I decided to compare expected credit losses in Q1 2019 and Q1 2022 - in order to determine if there are particular business segments that could be more at risk. The Personal segment (which includes Mortgages, Credit cards and other personal sources) accounted for 55% of ECL provisions in Q1 2019, while the wholesale segment accounted for 45%. However, Q1 2022 data shows that the split was more even - at 51% ECL provisions for personal and 49% for wholesale. What is also interesting is that when considering the Wholesale segment, the Corporate segment accounted for 69% of all Wholesale provisions in Q1 2019, whereas this had increased to 75% of all Wholesale provisions by Q1 2022. To get a better idea of the split by industry, here is a comparison of Q1 2019 and Q1 2022 ECL provisions across the Corporate segment: Q1 2019 Industry Total ECL Provisions (£m) Percentage (%) Airlines and aerospace 60 7.94% Automotive 38 5.03% Health 77 10.19% Land transport and logistics 39 5.16% Leisure 227 30.03% Oil and gas 63 8.33% Retail 209 27.65% Shipping 43 5.69% Source: Figures sourced from Q1 2020 Interim Management Statement. Percentages calculated by author. Q1 2022 Industry Total ECL Provisions (£m) Percentage (%) Airlines and aerospace 44 5.25% Automotive 48 5.73% Health 93 11.10% Land transport and logistics 81 9.67% Leisure 401 47.85% Oil and gas 51 6.09% Retail 120 14.32% Source: Figures sourced from Q1 2022 Interim Management Statement. Percentages calculated by author. When comparing the two time periods, we can see that ECL provisions for Leisure increased substantially from 30% to 48%, while that of retail fell from 28% to 14%. Looking Forward While Leisure spending has seen a rebound following the lockdown phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains to be seen to what degree inflation will be expected to affect spend in this area going forward. According to the Deloitte Consumer Tracker, we can see that while leisure spending for Q1 2022 saw positive growth across the holiday segment, there was concurrently a significant decline in other leisure activities. Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q1 2022 Should we see this trend accelerate in an inflationary environment, then the leisure sector as a whole could come under further pressure.Stabilità e crescita dei pagamenti
Recupero dei dati sui dividendi
Dividendo stabile: NWG paga dividendi da meno di 10 anni e durante questo periodo i pagamenti sono stati volatili.
Dividendo in crescita: I pagamenti dei dividendi di NWG sono aumentati, ma la società ha pagato dividendi solo per 8 anni.
Rendimento dei dividendi rispetto al mercato
| NatWest Group Rendimento dei dividendi rispetto al mercato |
|---|
| Segmento | Rendimento dei dividendi |
|---|---|
| Azienda (NWG) | 5.6% |
| Fondo del 25% del mercato (US) | 1.4% |
| Top 25% del mercato (US) | 4.2% |
| Media del settore (Banks) | 2.4% |
| Analista previsionale (NWG) (fino a 3 anni) | 7.6% |
Dividendo notevole: Il dividendo di NWG ( 5.56% ) è più alto rispetto al 25% inferiore dei pagatori di dividendi nel mercato US ( 1.41% ).
Dividendo elevato: Il dividendo di NWG ( 5.56% ) è tra il 25% dei principali pagatori di dividendi nel mercato US ( 4.24% )
Pagamenti attuali agli azionisti
Copertura degli utili: Grazie al suo payout ratio ( 46.1% ) ragionevolmente basso, i pagamenti dei dividendi di NWG sono ben coperti dagli utili.
Futuri pagamenti agli azionisti
Copertura dei dividendi futuri: Si prevede che i dividendi di NWG nei prossimi 3 anni saranno coperti dagli utili (rapporto di pagamento 51.2% ).
Scoprire le società che pagano dividendi forti
Analisi aziendale e situazione dei dati finanziari
| Dati | Ultimo aggiornamento (ora UTC) |
|---|---|
| Analisi dell'azienda | 2026/05/22 12:30 |
| Prezzo dell'azione a fine giornata | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Utili | 2026/03/31 |
| Utili annuali | 2025/12/31 |
Fonti dei dati
I dati utilizzati nella nostra analisi aziendale provengono da S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. I seguenti dati sono utilizzati nel nostro modello di analisi per generare questo report. I dati sono normalizzati, il che può comportare un ritardo nella disponibilità della fonte.
| Pacchetto | Dati | Tempistica | Esempio Fonte USA * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dati finanziari della società | 10 anni |
| |
| Stime di consenso degli analisti | +3 anni |
|
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| Prezzi di mercato | 30 anni |
| |
| Proprietà | 10 anni |
| |
| Gestione | 10 anni |
| |
| Sviluppi principali | 10 anni |
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* Esempio per i titoli statunitensi, per i titoli non statunitensi si utilizzano forme e fonti normative equivalenti.
Se non specificato, tutti i dati finanziari si basano su un periodo annuale ma vengono aggiornati trimestralmente. Si tratta dei cosiddetti dati TTM (Trailing Twelve Month) o LTM (Last Twelve Month). Per saperne di più.
Modello di analisi e Snowflake
I dettagli del modello di analisi utilizzato per generare questo report sono disponibili sulla nostra pagina Github; abbiamo anche guide su come utilizzare i nostri report e tutorial su Youtube.
Scoprite il team di livello mondiale che ha progettato e realizzato il modello di analisi Simply Wall St.
Metriche di settore e industriali
Le nostre metriche di settore e di sezione sono calcolate ogni 6 ore da Simply Wall St; i dettagli del nostro processo sono disponibili su Github.
Fonti analitiche
NatWest Group plc è coperta da 33 analisti. 15 di questi analisti ha fornito le stime di fatturato o di utile utilizzate come input per il nostro report. Le stime degli analisti vengono aggiornate nel corso della giornata.
| Analista | Istituzione |
|---|---|
| Arturo de Frias Marques | Banco Santander |
| Amandeep Rakkar | Barclays |
| Thomas Andrew Rayner | Barclays |