Seeking Alpha • Feb 13

Credicorp Executing Well, But Macro Risk Remains High

Summary Credicorp's fourth quarter results were better than expected at the pre-provision line, but higher provisioning drove a miss for net income. Management is taking a more conservative stance on credit, noting some signs of weakness in real estate and tourism. Credicorp continues to see growth in its digital businesses, while competitors are getting more aggressive in corporate lending. Peru's political unrest threatens to spill over into the economy, as protests disrupt tourism and mining operations. Credicorp is undervalued on long-term growth of around 10%, but macro issues in Peru are a near-term issue for sentiment. I’ve used the “good house in a difficult neighborhood” analogy before with Credicorp (BAP), and it remains valid today – this Peruvian bank is a very well-run bank and one with above-average growth prospects, but political (and potentially economic) turmoil remains a significant challenge for sentiment and will, at some point, spill over into the operations unless the government of Peru can find a path out of its current crisis. Thus far, the shares have held up alright, declining modestly since my last update. It will take time for Peru to get back to some semblance of normal, but in the meantime two of the country’s main engines of economic growth, mining and tourism, are vulnerable to ongoing social unrest. I do still believe that Credicorp can generate around 10% long-term core earnings growth from here, and that it is undervalued on that basis, but investors considering the shares today should at least go in with their eyes open to the macro risks here. A Good Quarter On A Core Basis, But Higher Provisions Are A Concern Credicorp’s core results were better than expected in the fourth quarter, but there were some warning signs, including slowing loan demand and rising provisions, with management getting more cautious on the economic outlook. Revenue rose 22% year over year and 6% quarter over quarter, with net interest income driving the growth. Net interest income rose about 31% yoy and 8% qoq, beating by around 5% (different third-party services reported different “consensus” numbers for the quarter), with net interest margin up almost 150bp yoy and 42bp qoq to 5.73%. Earning assets fell about 3% sequentially. Fee income declined 3% yoy and 4% qoq, while insurance earnings rose 44% yoy and fell about 7% qoq. Operating expenses rose 11% yoy and about 16% qoq reported. Pre-provision profits rose 37% yoy and fell 3% qoq, beating by about 3%. Provisions, though, were much higher than expected, driving pre-tax profits down 18% qoq (up 1% yoy), missing by about 6% to 9%. Slowing Growth And Rising Non-Performing Loans Overall constant currency structural loan performance wasn’t too bad, rising close to 12% yoy and about 4% qoq, only a modest deceleration from the sequential growth in the third quarter. For the Peruvian operations, though, loans were up less than 1% sequentially versus the 5%-plus growth in the prior quarter, with particularly noticeable slowdowns in business lending. Corporate lending was down about 2% qoq, while small/medium-sized business lending slowed to the low single-digits. Consumer lending growth remains in the low single-digits on a sequential basis, with Mibanco slowing from about 4% qoq growth in the third quarter to less than 3% qoq growth this quarter. Given higher rates (Credicorp’s average loan yield improved 180bp yoy and 50bp qoq to 9.9%) and growing concern about the economy in 2023, it’s not so surprising that loan demand is slowing. At the same time, I think it’s worth monitoring the performance of competitors – BBVA (BBVA) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) (“Scotiabank”) have both been getting more aggressive in going after Credicorp’s nearly 40% market share in corporate lending. I also find Intercorp’s (IFS) efforts on the retail and digital side to be interesting. I’m more concerned at this point by the credit situation. Non-performing loans rose 10% sequentially, with the structural NPL ratio climbing slightly (3bp) to 4.95%. Mibanco’s NPL ratio actually improved meaningfully on a sequential basis, from 6.5% to 5%. Cost of risk jumped 85bp qoq to 2.06%, with Mibanco up 320bp to 5.9%, as management takes a more conservative stance on credit. Management pointed to increased signs of weakness in the corporate business from businesses in the real estate and tourism sectors, and does sound more cautious overall about the business climate in 2023. Political Risk Will Eventually Become Economic Risk Credicorp is doing well with the things it can control. It has maintained strong share in a wide range of lending categories while simultaneously maintaining good risk control and expanding its lending to smaller businesses and microfinance customers. There are a few areas where Credicorp punches below its weight (credit cards, most notably), but competing for more share against Intercorp and Scotiabank may not be worth the risk and cost. Credicorp also continues to leverage its digital efforts. About two-thirds of its customers use the bank’s digital tools for half or more of their transactions, and Yape continues to grow nicely, with a 42% sequential increase in users and an 84% sequential increase in active users. Not only is Credicorp starting to monetize Yape (largely through transactions and marketplace services), it’s expanding its digital offerings on Culqui (its acquiring/POS platform) and moving forward with a new digital bank offering for affluent customers. All of that is great, but there are bigger events underway in Peru. The arrest and impeachment of former president Castillo has not only put the country’s sixth president in place within the last five years, but also sparked violent protests across the country (more in the southern areas). Protests have led to the closure of Machu Picchu and disruptions to the mining industry, and the U.S. State Department and Britain’s government both now advise caution with respect to traveling to Peru. A resolution seems distant at this point. Some of the protestors are talking about themselves as an insurgency, and in multiple cases the government has treated them as such, leading multiple ministers of Boluarte’s government to resign in protest of the government’s use of violence to quell protests. Meanwhile, although the populace seems to support new elections in 2023, the congress seems reluctant to move on this, with elections currently scheduled for 2026.

Punteggio fiocco di neve
Valutazione	4/6
Crescita futura	2/6
Prestazioni passate	4/6
Salute finanziaria	5/6
Dividendi	4/6

Prezzi storici delle azioni
Prezzo attuale dell'azione	US$379.44
Massimo di 52 settimane	US$413.25
Minimo di 52 settimane	US$230.45
Beta	0.84
Variazione di 1 mese	0.65%
Variazione a 3 mesi	2.68%
Variazione di 1 anno	42.33%
Variazione a 3 anni	175.24%
Variazione a 5 anni	259.25%
Variazione dall'IPO	3,169.51%

	BAP	US Banks	US Mercato
7D	-1.2%	-1.4%	-2.2%
1Y	42.3%	17.6%	13.1%

BAP volatility
BAP Average Weekly Movement	4.1%
Banks Industry Average Movement	3.1%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.4%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

BAP statistiche fondamentali
Capitalizzazione di mercato	US$29.82b
Utili (TTM)	US$2.19b
Ricavi(TTM)	US$6.63b

Statistiche chiave sulla redditività dall'ultima relazione sugli utili (TTM)
BAP Conto economico (TTM)
Ricavi	S/22.27b
Costo del fatturato	S/166.21m
Profitto lordo	S/22.10b
Altre spese	S/14.73b
Utili	S/7.37b

Utile per azione (EPS)	92.81
Margine lordo	99.25%
Margine di profitto netto	33.10%
Rapporto debito/patrimonio netto	70.1%

Dati	Ultimo aggiornamento (ora UTC)
Analisi dell'azienda	2026/09/10 18:51
Prezzo dell'azione a fine giornata	2026/09/10 00:00
Utili	2026/06/30
Utili annuali	2025/12/31

Pacchetto	Dati	Tempistica	Esempio Fonte USA ^*
Dati finanziari della società	10 anni	Conto economico Rendiconto finanziario Bilancio	Modulo SEC 10-K Modulo SEC 10-Q
Stime di consenso degli analisti	+3 anni	Previsioni finanziarie Obiettivi di prezzo degli analisti	Rapporti di ricerca degli analisti Blue Matrix
Prezzi di mercato	30 anni	Prezzi delle azioni Dividendi, scissioni e azioni	Dati di mercato ICE Modulo SEC S-1
Proprietà	10 anni	Top azionisti Insider trading	Modulo 4 SEC Modulo 13D SEC
Gestione	10 anni	Team di leadership Consiglio di amministrazione	Modulo SEC 10-K Modulo SEC DEF 14A
Sviluppi principali	10 anni	Annunci aziendali	Modulo 8-K SEC

Credicorp (BAP) Panoramica del titolo

Premi

Analisi del rischio

Analyst Price Targets

Digital Finance Expansion And Lending Guidance Will Shape Peru's Market Outlook

Credicorp Stock Will Face Pressure As Higher Risk Lending And Neobank Costs Rise

Digital Monetization And Financial Inclusion Will Drive Powerful Long Term Earnings Expansion

Top Analyst Narratives

Digital Finance Expansion And Lending Guidance Will Shape Peru's Market Outlook

Credicorp Stock Will Face Pressure As Higher Risk Lending And Neobank Costs Rise

Digital Monetization And Financial Inclusion Will Drive Powerful Long Term Earnings Expansion

Concorrenti di Credicorp Ltd.

First Citizens BancShares

KeyCorp

Fifth Third Bancorp

PNC Financial Services Group

Storia dei prezzi e prestazioni

Notizie e aggiornamenti recenti

BAP: Future Returns Will Balance Dividend Payout And Earnings Assumptions

Credicorp Is Turning Peru's Cash-Based Economy Into A Digital Lending Growth Machine

BAP: Softer Revenue Outlook Will Sustain Elevated Overvaluation Risk

Price target increased by 7.0% to US$419

Second quarter 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

BAP: Higher Margins And Dividend Outlook Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk

Recent updates

BAP: Future Returns Will Balance Dividend Payout And Earnings Assumptions

Credicorp Is Turning Peru's Cash-Based Economy Into A Digital Lending Growth Machine

BAP: Softer Revenue Outlook Will Sustain Elevated Overvaluation Risk

Price target increased by 7.0% to US$419

Second quarter 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

BAP: Higher Margins And Dividend Outlook Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk

Now 21% undervalued

BAP: Future Returns Will Balance Dividend Payout And New CFO Transition

BAP: Future Returns Will Depend On Dividend Payout And Incoming CFO

BAP: Upgraded Rating And Dividend Strength Will Support Future Upside

Credicorp (BAP) Stock Could Be 16% Below Fair Value After Dividend Growth And Downgrade

Credicorp Stock Will Face Pressure As Higher Risk Lending And Neobank Costs Rise

Now 20% undervalued

Insider recently sold US$1.1m worth of stock

BAP: Future Returns Will Rely On Dividend Policy And Board Changes

Credicorp Delivers Strong Q1 With 21.1% ROE and Record 50 Soles Dividend

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

BAP: Future Returns Will Depend On Dividend Policy And Board Transitions

Credicorp Ltd. announces Annual dividend, payable on June 12, 2026

Credicorp Ltd. Announces Changes Executive Changes

BAP: Future Upside Will Depend On Dividend Actions And Board Leadership

BAP: Future Returns Will Rely On Dividend Policy And Board Leadership Decisions

Now 27% undervalued

BAP: Future Returns Will Depend On Digital Bank Progress And Dividend Decisions

Credicorp Ltd. Announces Board and Committee Changes

Insufficient new directors

BAP: Future Returns Will Depend On Digital Bank And Dividend Reserve Actions

BAP: Future Returns Will Rely On Digital Bank And Capital Reserves

Now 20% undervalued

Credicorp Ltd. Announces Retirement of Directors, Effective March 31, 2026

BAP: Future Returns Will Rely On Chilean Digital Bank Execution

Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

BAP: Future Upside Will Depend On Digital Banking Execution

Credicorp Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 31, 2026

BAP: Stable Outlook Will Rely On Digital Progress And Steady Profitability

BAP: Stable Margins And Revenue Outlook Will Support A Fair Future Profile

BAP: Modest Revenue Outlook And Stable Profitability Will Support A Fair Future Profile

Credicorp Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 14, 2026

BAP: Stronger Margins And Revenue Mix Will Support A Balanced Outlook

BAP: Improved Revenue Projections And Lower Discount Rate Will Drive Outlook

Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

BAP: Net Interest Margin Guidance And Resolved Tax Dispute Will Shape Outlook

Digital Finance Expansion And Lending Guidance Will Shape Peru's Market Outlook

Digital Finance And Lending Expansion Will Widen Market In Peru

Digital Finance And Lending Expansion Will Widen Market In Peru

Digital Finance And Lending Expansion Will Widen Market In Peru

Digital Finance And Lending Expansion Will Widen Market In Peru

Now 20% undervalued

Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Credicorp Ltd. Declares Cash Dividend for Fiscal Year 2024, Payable on June 13, 2025

Credicorp: Methodical Disruption And Better Growth In Peru Support Strong Growth And More Upside

Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Credicorp Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2025

Credicorp Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 14, 2025