Seeking Alpha • Sep 24
Canon: A Japanese Giant With Potential Growth
Summary
I've reviewed some Japanese-based companies in my time as a contributor for SA - so when I was asked to take a look at Canon, it seemed logical.
Canon shares similarities with some other Japanese giants - in that growth has been stagnant for a long time, and the company is searching for more.
If it delivers it, there could be a double-digit upside to the company. Here is my take on Canon.
Dear readers,
In this article, we're going to add another Japanese company to the coverage spectrum - and now I'm talking about Canon (CAJ). This is a Japanese business with a storied history and a great current franchise. It's one of the main camera manufacturers and players in the professional segment of the world.
We're going to look at what makes the company tick, and whether an investment could be of any interest to you here.
What is Canon Inc?
Canon is a Japanese multinational corporation based in Tokyo that focuses on the design, research, and manufacturing of optical imaging equipment and industrial products.
Its primary products are things like lenses, cameras, Medtech, scanners, printers, and various types of semis. The company produced the Kwanon, Japan's first-ever 35-mm camera. The company has multiple achievements under its belt, including improvements on British-made Bell Punch cameras in making a well-working electronic calculator. The company's Pellix model which came out in 1965, was among the first of its kind as well, a working SLR.
Like many companies in optical imaging/equipment, Canon had to handle the shift from analog to digital cameras. Unlike other companies, Canon handled it very well. Its current product lines include:
Compact Digital
Video Cameras/Film and digital SLRs
Camcorders
Lenses
Broadcasting equipment, including Free Viewpoint solutions
Professional displays
Projectors
Photolithography equipment
Scanners, Printers, microfilm scanners
Binoculars
Microscopes, including diagnostic systems such as ultrasound/x-ray
CCTV solutions
Rotary encoders
...and much more. In short, many things optical, the company does. Most consumers will be aware of Canon because it builds and makes both amateur and professional-grade DSLR cameras.
The rise of smartphones with built-in cameras which are actually quite capable of fulfilling the need of over 95% of people's imaging/photographing needs has severely hurt this company's operating results among consumers for the past 10-or-so years.
The company's operations are split into 4 relatively easily-understood segments - and the mix might surprise you.
Canon IR (Canon IR)
Because Canon is primarily a printing company these days, not a photography or even film equipment company. Over half the company's sales come from printing, with the 3 other segments together not even being above 45% for the 2022E Fiscal.
The geographic mix is more as would be expected. Japan still accounts for more than a fifth of sales, with NA/SA coming in at around 30%, with Europe at 25%. The rest is APAC.
Company sales have been in a downward trend since 2017, cratered during COVID-19 induced 2020, and started climbing back up again in 2021. The current expectation is for 2022E to reach the levels of 2017-2018, which would mean a return to significant growth for the company.
Operating profit trends have followed this cycle - but done so in an even more volatile manner than the sales record. The cratering in 2020 was massive and saw ratios/margins drop to below 5%. We're now on our way back up again.
Canon IR (Canon IR)
The company's dividend record is spotty. Canon "wants" to pay a good dividend, and even paid an extraordinary commemorative dividend on its 80th birthday back in 2017, but then cut the dividend by 50% in 2020, only to now slightly raise it. The current yield is between 3-4% and this is where it seems projected to stay with about half the 2022A behind us.
This corresponds to a very conservative payout ratio, coming no higher than 45-48%, which is an improvement to the latest few years with payout ratios over 135%.
Canon's financial health is superb. The company warrants an "A" from S&P Global, which of course speaks for itself. Like many Japanese companies, Canon almost entirely lacks debt. The company's LT debt/cap is currently at 7.21%, one of the lowest I've ever seen in this segment. The company has in fact been reducing debt strategically even more as we move forward and expects to end the year with debt/assets of below 7%.
So, Canon is certainly safe.
But the safety of course isn't enough. Can it actually grow?
I haven't exactly been positive about the other Japanese businesses I've reviewed given their stagnant performance and future uncertainties. I will clearly state that I see Canon has less of this than its competitors in other segments.
Recent results show us sales increase despite the ongoing conflict and macro. Sales in fact increased double digits, 13.3%, and marks the sixth consecutive quarter of sales growth.
Profit is of course the second question given how things ebb and flow today. Despite significantly increasing logistical and input costs, the company managed to control expenses and increase operating profit by 27.4%, meaning more than twice as much as the company's sales increase. In part, this was because of the mix, with more full-frame cameras, but it was also due to company actions, managing to control pricing.
FX continues to hound Japanese companies though. The yen is depreciating, and this results in some interesting flows. Still, look at the business unit-level results here.
Canon IR (Canon IR)
And many of these numbers are really despite headwinds. Take printing, which is managing to keep its shape despite the fact that most businesses have not seen returns to the office at high levels as of yet. The bridge for operating profit gives some clarity as to how things are increasing here, in large part due to FX and pricing.
Canon IR (Canon IR)
Canon is doing what most companies are doing. It's adjusting and working what it can in order to keep its profitability. Many of its products are not consumer-grade stuff, but things that are harder to replace and with higher "stickiness" in their customer base. This is another positive.
The full-year projections call for a total 16.1% net sales increase, and a 13.7% gross profit increase. OpEx is actually expected to decline as a percentage of sales, and profit is expected to increase, coming to a net profit projection of 22% up at 214B Yen.
Demand for company products is excellent. The company's order book is well-filled, and the company has increased production. The problem here is a part shortage, and the company is diversifying suppliers and searching for alternative part solutions.
Canon is, as I said, primarily a printing company. Its high-speed cut-sheet inkjets, large formats, "Prosumer", and Office products are where Canon generates most of its sales. As of current trends, its sales are actually up, and the company is increasing its output - while also increasing prices.
It's very fair to say that Canon is doing quite well. Company cash flow is expected to be up for the full year, and order and sales trends show promise and confirm the longer-term positive for the business.
The company even had sufficient capital to buy back shares, which it has done at appealing valuations seen from a 20-year perspective. The company makes it clear that it sees the company return to 4,000B Yen in sales for the first time in 5 years for the 2022E period, while income climbs to the highest level in over 10 years.
Let's look at valuation.
Canon's Valuation
Canon's upside comes from several perspectives. For one, we have a clear dividend upside, with prospective payout growth. That's going to be pretty major going forward, and important in the current environment.
Secondly, you can't overstate the fundamentals of Canon. This is a well-entrenched company with boundless expertise in several fields. Their products aren't impossible to replace, but they're a hard company to switch from if you've built your portfolio or office around their products. Switching costs/issues are there. Couple this with a superb credit rating, and you have a sticky A-rated company.
Thirdly, the valuation is actually appealing at this point. Looking at the share price for this year, you can clearly see the ups and downs and the patterns the stock seems to follow for the time being.
Canon Share price (Seeking Alpha)
How this translates into the valuation is currently as follows. The company trades to a conservative average P/E of 12x. This is already pretty low, but the market is currently in a position where "standard" rules of valuation are out the window, as it seems to be searching for a bottom. However, Canon has not advanced its valuation, while at the same time significantly advancing its prospects, results, and forecasts.
Canon Valuation (F.A.S.T graphs)
Like many companies in this market, this means that Canon is actually in a very good position at this time. And unlike other Japanese businesses, I do see a realistic prospect for the company achieving its forecasted, near-double-digit annual rates of growth for the foreseeable future.