Seeking Alpha • Jun 07

Li-Cycle Holdings: Stronger Liquidity Performance Needed To Boost Confidence

Summary Li-Cycle Holdings is a battery-recycling company focused on lithium-ion battery resource recovery and recycling in North America and Europe. The company's stock performance has been disappointing, with a significant decrease in share price and a negative outlook. LICY's financial reviews show underwhelming fundamentals, including cash-burning operations and a decrease in liquidity, posing risks for the company's future. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Mar 24

Li-Cycle Holdings: Not A Buy After The Recent Run-Up

Summary Glencore's $75 million in convertible bond financing, improved investor sentiment for LICY stock. However, I am concerned about the escalating project costs, management's execution track record, and the dilutive financing terms. I prefer remaining on the sidelines post the recent run-up in the stock price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Oct 31

Li-Cycle Holdings: The Tale Of A Failed SPAC

Summary Li-Cycle Holdings is operating in the battery recycling business with strong backing from industrial giants such as Koch, Glencore, and LG Chem. The company is at an inflection point as it transitions from its Spoke to Hub facilities. This week's press release announcing the pausing of its first hub project raises serious doubts about its ability as a going concern as its envisaged business model unravels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Sep 22

Li-Cycle Holdings: A Generational Buying Opportunity

Summary Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. is undervalued and has the potential to be worth over 20 times its current value. Li-Cycle Holdings has a first-mover advantage in the growing market of recycling lithium batteries from electric vehicles (EVs). The company has backing from Glencore plc, a conglomerate with significant resources and a need for the metals that Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. will retrieve from old batteries. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jul 28

Looking Back In On Li-Cycle Holdings

Summary Today we revisit Li-Cycle Holdings Corp., which hopes to be a key player in the electric battery ecosystem. The company is in the middle of an aggressive build-out of its Hub and Spoke recycling network. An updated analysis of Li-Cycle Holdings follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Article d’analyse • May 18

Some Analysts Just Cut Their Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (NYSE:LICY) Estimates

Market forces rained on the parade of Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. ( NYSE:LICY ) shareholders today, when the analysts...

Article d’analyse • Mar 10

Is Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (NYSE:LICY) Potentially Undervalued?

While Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. ( NYSE:LICY ) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a decent...

Seeking Alpha • Jan 27

Li-Cycle Holdings Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Li-Cycle Holdings (NYSE:LICY) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Monday, January 30th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.13 (+90.1% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $9.31M (+112.1% Y/Y). Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward.

Seeking Alpha • Jan 09

Li-Cycle: The Time Has Come For This EV Battery Recycler In 2023

Summary The North American spokes are going according to plan, with the optimization efforts bringing throughput close to target levels. The European spokes are to follow the similar strategy as the North American spokes and to learn from optimization efforts to facilitate a smooth ramp-up. The company remains well funded for its own pipeline of 7 spokes and 1 hub, having sufficient capital needed for the current pipeline development. Positive government policy likely to drive further demand growth for Li-Cycle, while reducing development and construction costs for the company. My target price for Li-Cycle is $11.30, implying an upside potential of 126% from current levels. With talks of an electric vehicle recession given the change in dynamics as the supply for electric vehicles outweighs the demand as global auto manufacturers increasingly invest in electric vehicle production capacity, this rapid growth in production capacity of electric vehicles and thus, batteries is a positive for battery recyclers like Li-Cycle (LICY). The time has come for Li-Cycle as it looks to ride the tailwind of rising demand for localised battery materials as auto manufacturers scale up manufacturing capacity, with increasing number of spokes and hub coming online in the near term. Investment thesis Li-Cycle is well positioned in the lithium-ion battery market as the rapid rise in demand of electric vehicles has led to a large supply of and large increase in capacity for the production of lithium-ion batteries. The company is an early mover in the lithium-ion battery space, and with increasing requirements to source battery materials locally, as well as a general trend of a shortage of battery materials needed for electric vehicle production worldwide, this bodes well for Li-Cycle as a leader in the space. As the company has a strong technological advantage and a patented business model, it will enable Li-Cycle to maintain its moat against peers. Furthermore, the company is constructing and ramping up operations of its 7 spokes and 1 hub in the near-term that will lead to exponential growth, in my view. I have written previous articles on Li-Cycle that can be found here. After a slight hiccup, the North American spokes are back on track As highlighted in my previous article on Li-Cycle, the previous quarter was the first one when the management first communicated to the market about taking optimization efforts in its North America spokes. As a result in the recent third quarter of 2022, the company continues to take efforts to optimise the Arizona and Alabama spokes. Given that these spokes are regarded as the first of their kind as they are able to process entire battery packs without the need for dismantling, and because the Arizona spokes are the first of many of these types of spokes to be constructed, Li-Cycle decided to make improvements in the spoke to ensure that target throughputs are achieved before the other spokes start up. These optimization projects are low capital cost optimizations made, and the company announced in its recent third quarter 2022 that they have successfully ramped to near target throughput using these optimization efforts and there has been higher recovery yields of black mass as a result of these efforts. These improvements and optimization efforts from the Arizona spoke are ultimately very important for the company as its Alabama and European spokes are regarded as carbon copies of this Arizona spoke. The company also mentioned that they continue to work with their key partner, Ultium, to develop the Ohio spoke to ensure that they take the optimal path of execution. European expansion Ultimately, I expect the European expansion to be following a similar strategy to that of its North America strategy. In Europe, given the robust demand for recycled battery materials, the capacity for the European spokes are likely to be easily absorbed due to Li-Cycle's strategically position spoke locations that are close to manufacturers of electric vehicle manufacturers. The Norway site is located near logistics networks, with availability to sustainable energy sources, which makes the Norway facility an attractive one for customers in Europe. The Germany site is located strategically, near battery and electric vehicle manufacturing sites and it also has access to renewable energy. The Norway and Germany spokes are expect to follow a similar approach to the Arizona and Alabama spokes where there will be several stages to start up. The first to start up will be the Germany spoke, followed by the Norway spoke and the company expect that the two spokes will begin production by the second half of 2023. This presents a slight shift in timeline backwards due to more conservative timing expectations as the company looks to incorporate what they have learnt from the North America spokes into the European spokes. Balance sheet strength sufficient for pipeline While Li-Cycle is in a phase of rapid growth given the number of spokes it has to construct, as well as the Rochester Hub, liquidity and funding is key in the current environment. The company currently has $650 million in cash as of the third quarter of 2022. This was supplemented by the additional $250 million proceeds that were from LG and Glencore that helped to bolster the balance sheet. With this cash on hand on its balance sheet, I expect that Li-Cycle will have the necessary capital needed for its operating needs that is required for its project pipeline that is currently in development. For the third quarter of 2022, the company spent $82 million in capital expenditures that was, most of it was used to spend on equipment needed for the construction of the Rochester Hub, as well as the needed expenditure for equipment and improvements to be made in the company's North America and European spokes. The remainder of its needed capital expenditures will go towards funding the construction of the Rochester Hub. Positive government policy to spur demand and lower costs Li-Cycle continues to see favourable tailwinds from government policy that encourages and facilities the green transition that the company is part of. The Inflation Reduction Act remains to be one pivotal policy that will bring benefits to electric vehicle battery recyclers like Li-Cycle starting 2023. As energy security in this new age of the green transition is a priority for the United States, this is what the Inflation Reduction Act is primarily for, as an accelerator to increasing the supply of battery materials domestically that will help to drive demand for electric vehicles. As a result, these programs in the Inflation Reduction Act aim to help reduce the costs of the building of facilities that make these key battery materials and to reduce the overall manufacturing costs for batteries. In terms of the battery recycling industry in general, the Inflation Reduction Act has many benefits that applies to companies in the industry. This includes the $10 billion in advanced energy project tax credit that allocates up to 30% investment tax credit for the development of clean energy facilities in the United States, including facilities used for recycling. In addition, there are clean energy loans of up to $250 billion from the Department of Energy loan programs office, as well as 5-year production tax credits of up to $60 billion that are eligible for battery recyclers like Li-Cycle. Ultimately, the United States, through the Inflation Reduction Act, looks to increase energy security by pushing for the building of electric vehicle batteries either in the United States or in countries that have free trade agreements with the United States. The requirement to qualify for the clean vehicle tax credit is that the electric vehicle needs to have at least 50% of its battery critical minerals come from either free trade agreement countries or the United States, and this requirement increases to 80% by 2027. This regulation is gradually increasing the demand for domestically sources critical battery grade materials as more of the electric vehicle's key battery materials will then tend to come from domestic battery recyclers like Li-Cycle and this bodes well for the first mover players like Li-Cycle that is ready to benefit from this wave of demand. In addition, auto manufacturers are increasingly seeing the benefit of working with players like Li-Cycle in order to meet their production requirements for domestic battery content through recycled materials in order to meet clean vehicle tax credit conditions. Valuation The key for Li-Cycle will be to construct and ramp up its planned spokes and Rochester hub in the near-term and with that, we will see material revenue acceleration from now until 2025. Given that the 7 spokes and 1 hub planned are fully funded and expected to be profitable and cash generating once operational, my DCF will include financial forecasts until 2030. I apply a 40% discount in valuation multiple applied to the company compared to its peers in the recycling and waste industry as these are established and profitable players in the market so as to include some conservatism into my modelling. As the peer group is trading at 12x EV/EBITDA, I assume that Li-Cycle terminal multiple will be 7x. I applied a slightly higher discount rate to Li-Cycle for the DCF given the higher rates environment. As a result, I use a WACC of 12% to discount Li-Cycle to derive the intrinsic present day value of Li-Cycle. My target price for Li-Cycle is $11.30, implying an upside potential of 126% from current levels. Risks Execution risk

Seeking Alpha • Dec 17

Li-Cycle Update: Despite Several Uncertainties, It Is A Great Opportunity

Summary Li-Cycle could handle about 10% of the amount of used batteries and scrap generated in 2025. Although Li-Cycle's business model is relatively simple to understand, many unknowns remain. For example, the future use of cobalt and nickel in EV batteries. Even though there are risks, I believe there is still a great opportunity here. The company has a lot going for it. Investment Thesis I recently wrote an article about Li-Cycle (LICY). This provides a good general overview of the company, but in retrospect, I noticed that there are still some things that I would like to add. In addition, there are now a few new developments, so this article is a current update on the company. For those who are not yet familiar with the company, I recommend reading my first article for a better overview of the structure and overall concept. The capacity of the spoke facilities As we know, the company builds two types of recycling factories: hubs and spokes. The idea behind spokes is that they can be geographically distributed and thus be closer to the suppliers. After all, it is on these suppliers that the whole business is built. Li-Cycle needs end-of-life batteries or other scrap and waste generated by battery manufacturers. The spokes are the first step in the recycling process, creating what is called a black mass. This black mass is then delivered to another facility, the hub. The first one is still under construction and is scheduled to begin production in 2023. Recently, the company opened its fourth Spoke recycling facility in North America. This is located in Alabama and has a capacity of 10,000 tons of manufacturing scrap and end-of-life batteries per year. Across the four facilities, capacity is now 30,000 tons per year, and the goal is to increase capacity to 65,000 tons per year by the end of 2023. LICY investor presentation These 65,000 tons per year would be enough to utilize about 2/3 of the capacity of the hub currently under construction in Rochester, New York. LICY investor presentation After my first article, I wondered if there even is enough scrap material and old batteries. How much material can the company receive, or will the hub run at only a fraction of its capacity in the coming years? According to the company, by 2025, North America alone will generate 414k tons of battery material per year. While I don't know how Li-Cycle comes up with that number, theoretically, you should be able to estimate that number fairly accurately. Knowing how many electric cars have been sold in the past and should approximately reach their end of life. In addition, the company has numerous partners who should know how much output they can deliver to Li-Cycle. So I think we can trust that number pretty well. LICY Website And apparently, the company is only talking about end-of-life batteries and not about possible scrap at battery manufacturers. In total (batteries, scrap, in North America and Europe), the company expects 850k tons in 2025. The hub under construction has a total capacity of 90k tons of used batteries (or 35k tons of black mass). So Li-Cycle could handle about 10% of the amount of used batteries and scrap generated in 2025. Whether they can secure 10% of the quantity is not yet certain. If this is a profitable business model, there will be numerous competitors who also want to have the used batteries to convert them back into raw materials. But at least we can see from this calculation that theoretically, there is enough, and tons are increasing in the future anyway. Even 2025 still marks the beginning of this development. The market for electric cars is still very young, and used batteries will not accumulate on a large scale until the 2030s. LICY investor presentation Batteries without Nickel and Cobalt? There is currently a development at Tesla (TSLA) that they are increasingly using lithium iron phosphate ((LFP)) batteries. According to S&P Global, half of the vehicles delivered in Q1 contained such batteries. If this development continues with other manufacturers, I see this as a risk for Li-Cycle because less expensive materials can then be recovered from the batteries. On the other hand, the old batteries' price would also have to be lower. It is hard to say how this will affect the company at this stage, but I think it is more of a risk than an opportunity as they have focused their entire infrastructure on lithium, nickel, and cobalt so far. Battery manufacturers would be happy to build without expensive materials. And the end customers, i.e. buyers of electric cars, would also like to see this development because it means lower prices. So it seems to be in the general interest to avoid expensive materials as much as possible. As I said, the consequence of this development would be that, in the end, less valuable materials could be recycled, and that is the whole business model of Li-Cycle. Another much more significant risk is if lithium were removed from batteries. I recently wrote an article about this very issue titled Sodium instead of Lithium. This article was primarily intended for lithium mining companies but would also have implications for Li-Cycle. Because all lithium producers are ramping up their production at the moment, and if there were new materials that would replace lithium at least partially, the price of lithium would drop very much, and so would the resale value after recycling. In my first article about Li-Cycle, I calculated how much revenue potential the hub in Rochester has. In this calculation, I took current market prices of nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and lithium carbonate. The annual revenue would be just over $1B at current market prices and full capacity. In view of the current market capitalization of $910M, this would be a very high turnover. However, it also illustrates how dependent revenue will be on raw material prices. Future demand for Nickel and cobalt After these thoughts, I wondered what the future demand for nickel and cobalt would be. Or, in other words, how dependent the demand is on the sale of electric vehicles. The global nickel market is projected to grow from $36.27 billion in 2021 to $59.14 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 7.3% in forecast period, 2021-2028. fortunebusinessinsights.com The article states that two-thirds of nickel is used to produce stainless steel. The growing demand for nickel is therefore attributed more to the increasing use of stainless steel than to the demand from batteries. Also, one of the world´s largest commodity miners and third largest nickel producer, Vale (VALE), sees demand increasing by 44% by 2030. In addition, in 2019, 50% of the production came from only three countries, so all western countries combined produce very little. I don't know exactly what the consumption looks like, but if you look at these numbers, it should be clear that the West is producing less than it is consuming. Therefore, there will be a great interest in re-using the purchased nickel through recycling. Wikipedia For cobalt, the increase in future demand is more dependent on electric vehicles. Similar to nickel, there are only a few producing countries, mainly in Africa. But even without the demand coming from batteries, cobalt demand would increase. Blue represents batteries, gray other uses. McKinsey

Seeking Alpha • Nov 04

Li-Cycle: Success In Recycling Lithium-Ion Batteries

Summary LICY has a unique “Spoke & Hub” model. LICY’s proprietary technology sets it apart from competitors. LICY’s cash flow from existing commercial supply contracts reduces liquidity risk. Description I believe Li-Cycle (LICY) is worth $3.2 billion, representing ~220% upside from the date of writing. LICY is a leading company in the lithium-ion battery resource recovery and lithium-ion battery resource recovery market. They have a proprietary technology that enables them to track the battery recycling process from start to finish, which enables them to be involved in the entire process. Also, they have partnered with the government and most importantly, they have a strong customer base that likely guarantees them a steady flow of income. Company overview LICY is an industry leader in lithium-ion battery resource recovery, and they are leading the lithium-ion battery recycling market in North America. Unique "Spoke & Hub" model What LICY does is quite fascinating. Basically, under their "spoke and hub" process, end-of-life batteries and battery-related waste are taken to Spoke locations. In the Spoke locations, the materials are mechanically refined into different middle products, along with the black mass. Black mass is a dust-like substance that consists of quite a number of important metals, including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. All of the black mass that is from different Spoke locations is gathered together at a Hub location. At the Hub location, the black mass is then put through a hydrometallurgical process to generate end products, which at the end of the day can be sold back to the battery chain and used while producing new lithium-ion batteries. LICY operates two kinds of Hubs. First, they have the ternary Hub that processes all kinds of black mass using their technology. The second type of Hub is the lithium iron phosphate [LFP Hub], which can use their technology to process any type of black mass in order to produce LFP cathode-relevant end-products. This black mass can come from LFP lithium-ion batteries, LFP lithium-ion battery materials, or even from third parties. These LFP lithium-ion batteries, from time immemorial, have been batteries that cannot be easily recycled in the market compared to other lithium-ion batteries. LICY's plan is to change the status quo in the recycling industry and make these batteries prized resources. It doesn't take a genius to see that their recycling process plays a crucial role in the global shift toward renewable energy. They will reach this goal by offering an environmentally friendly alternative to energy-intensive pyrometallurgical processing methods and making sure there is a steady supply of recycled materials in the battery supply chain. One of the best things that LICY has is that their production costs are low compared to the mining and processing costs obtained from suppliers that produce these same materials. This is so because it has the ability to produce a lot of materials from just one process, and the process yields little waste and no displaced earth or tailing when compared to traditional mining. Proprietary technology sets it apart from competitors The ability of LICY's proprietary technology to adapt to new battery chemistries and inputs into the recycling process sets them apart from the competition. Cathode precursor input chemicals, cathode input chemicals, and raw materials that can be reused in batteries or the broader economy are all produced by their method. However, emerging technologies such as cathode-to-cathode recycling create products with a higher risk of obsolescence because of the constant improvement of cathode technology. Cash flow from existing commercial supply contracts reduces liquidity risk Major players in the EV and lithium-ion battery ecosystems, as well as leaders in consumer electronics, manufacturing scrap, and OEMs, are included in their commercial contracts. When added together, these factors account for more than 70 of LICY's clientele, and according to their analysis of the available market, they control roughly 30% of the North American market (based on LICY's S-1 filing). Strong government relationship As a result of their collaboration with New York State, they are now able to offer investors in the clean energy sector attractive financial incentives. The Eastman Kodak Business Park in Rochester, New York, is home to one of LICY's Spoke facilities, and the city is also where the company intends to set up shop for the first of its ternary Hubs. After years of building relationships with different Canadian government agencies, LICY was given grants and given access to a number of programs to help it grow. Future off-take opportunities to further drive revenue growth Construction is expected to be finally completed and production heightened at LICY's Rochester Hub by the beginning of 2023. They have also entered into a marketing, logistics, and working capital contract with Traxys that covers 100% of the nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, lithium carbonate, manganese carbonate, and graphite concentrate end products from Rochester Hub. Their aim is to get customers to buy the copper sulfide, sodium sulfate, and gypsum that are produced by the Hub and the ones that are presently not covered by the Traxys contract. Valuation I believe LICY is worth USD3.2 billion in FY24 representing ~220% upside from the date of writing.

Seeking Alpha • Oct 13

Li-Cycle begins commercial operations at Alabama Spoke

Li-Cycle (NYSE:LICY) has begun commercial operations at its lithium-ion battery recycling facility in Alabama. Located in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, the Spoke utilizes Li-Cycle’s (LICY) patented technology to recycle and directly process full EV battery packs without any dismantling through a submerged shredding process that produces no wastewater. The site, LICY's fourth Spoke recycling facility in North America, has capacity to process up to 10,000 tons of manufacturing scrap and end-of-life batteries per year. Across its four operating Spokes in North America, Li-Cycle (LICY) now has a total input processing capacity of 30,000 tons per year, or the equivalent of batteries from ~60,000 EVs. The company aims to have 65,000 tons per year of lithium-ion battery material processing capacity across its North American Spoke network by the end of 2023.

Seeking Alpha • Oct 06

Li-Cycle: Set To Achieve EV Battery Recycling Leadership Despite Near-Term Hiccups

Summary Li-Cycle continues to gain traction commercially with 2 new projects announced. Delay in Arizona and Alabama Spoke as a result of the need to optimize operations to achieve targeted throughput is a necessary step for the successful future spoke rollout. The company will benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act as energy resilience becomes a top priority in the United States. Li-Cycle continues to have sufficient funding for its planned future growth and its balance sheet remains robust. My target price for Li-Cycle is $13.10, implying an upside potential of 132% from current levels. Li-Cycle (LICY) recently reported their recent quarterly result and while it may appear that the delay in the start-up of its spokes is negative, I would argue that this is a temporary setback that is beneficial for Li-Cycle in the long run. Investment thesis I have written previous articles on Li-Cycle that can be found here. The investment case for Li-Cycle is as follows: The opportunity to invest in Li-Cycle comes at a time when the lithium-ion battery market is expanding rapidly due to the rapid rise of electric vehicles. As such, as an early mover in the lithium-ion battery recycling space, Li-Cycle can be the leader in the industry with huge growth prospects in the years to come. The company's technology advantage as well as its patented business model will provide a competitive moat against competitors in the near term as it begins commercialization and ramping up. Commercial progress During the second quarter, there were 2 projects that Li-Cycle announced as it gains traction commercially. Firstly, a leading US energy provider chose Li-Cycle for its decommissioning of its energy storage where more than 1,400 metric tons of battery materials were decommissioned. This project was significant in the sense that it was among the largest energy storage decommissioning projects in North America. Secondly, Li-Cycle was selected by an emerging electric vehicle OEM with manufacturing capabilities in the US as its global battery recycler. Although the electric vehicle OEM is not large nor was it disclosed which company this is, it brings further confidence that Li-Cycle's battery recycling capabilities add value to the up-and-coming electric vehicle companies. Delay in Arizona Spoke by 1 to 2 quarters The main focus and drawback in the current quarter was the delay in Arizona Spoke and thus, a delay in Alabama Spoke as well. As there were optimizations that needed to be done in the Arizona Spoke, the estimated delay in black mass production is about 1 to 2 quarters. As the Arizona Spoke is the first of its kind and all the other subsequent spokes follow the exact same design, I think it is reasonable to perfect the Arizona Spoke before continuing with the next spoke, the Alabama spoke. After this optimization was done, I think it's positive that the target throughput rate was achieved for the Arizona Spoke. However, as a result of this delay and optimization of the Arizona Spoke, the guidance for 2022 black mass production was reduced from a range of 6,500 to 7,500 tons to a range of 3,500 to 3,800 tons. While this may seem material for 2022, I think it is important to look at the grand scheme of things and note that this is good for the future rollout of other identical spokes, as highlighted below. It is important to note that this delay for the Arizona Spoke does not affect the timeline for the Rochester hub and it is expected to meet the schedule of commissioning in stages in 2023. Timeline for future operational milestones (Li-Cycle 2Q22 Slides) In terms of the improvements that were needed to be made in the Arizona Spoke, the team needed to ensure that the process at which the materials was flowing through were at a fast enough rate that achieves Li-Cycle's target throughput. As a result, with the improvement in the rate at which the materials flowed through the spoke, this had to be integrated with the standard spoke design that the other spokes will copy and follow like for like. As such, with the current adjustment made during the quarter, these learnings and improvements can ensure that future spokes hit the desired throughput rates as per the Arizona Spoke. In addition, management does not expect that these adjustments will result in higher costs needed for each spoke. As such, I am of the view that the slight delay in the current quarter, while slightly disappointing, is great for the many more spokes it is rolling out in the next few years. It is better to finetune the process and to have the ability to reach the desired throughput rate in the spokes than to go according to the timeline and use the inefficient spoke designs, constructing future spokes that are less efficient and productive as they should be. As such, for the future spokes, given that they utilize the same spoke design, I would expect a smoother ramp-up process. If I were to derive the fourth quarter black mass production from the revised guidance, it implies that for the fourth quarter, we will see an increase in black mass production by 30% to 35% from the third quarter. The main contribution from this comes from the Arizona Spoke reaching target throughput this quarter. As a result of improvements made to the Arizona Spoke and with the results being that it has reached the target throughput, I think that this actually bodes well for the remaining spokes to be ramped up in the remainder of 2022 and 2023. For the upcoming Alabama spoke, since it is a direct copy of this new Arizona Spoke, the adjustments made in the current quarter for Arizona Spoke will have direct benefits to Alabama Spoke. Thus, with the lessons learned from the Arizona Spoke, I expect that the spokes coming up in not just Alabama, but also in Germany and Norway to be able to achieve their target throughputs as these spokes are a carbon copy of the Arizona Spoke. Regulatory tailwinds With increasing focus on clean energy as well as energy resilience, I think it's no surprise that the regulatory environment for Li-Cycle and the battery recycling industry to be positive. With the recently announced Inflation Reduction Act, there are benefits that positively impact Li-Cycle, including the clean energy loans of $250 billion and production tax credits of $60 billion that can help Li-Cycle and the battery recycling industry further accelerate growth. Sufficient funding for future growth pipeline Management once again reiterated that with the approximately $650 million of cash Li-Cycle currently has as of this quarter, including $250 million from Glencore and LG, this enables Li-Cycle to be in an envious position for a relatively early-stage company with huge growth and capital expenditure plans. As per management's commentary, this strong balance sheet is enough liquidity for Li-Cycle to meet its current operating and liquidity needs for the currently announced project pipeline. Valuation As Li-Cycle will see material revenue acceleration in 2024 and beyond, my DCF model is based on financial forecasts until 2025. I apply a 40% discount to Li-Cycle's peers in the recycling and waste industry to provide conservatism to my model given these are established players. For reference, these peers are trading at 12x EV/EBITDA. With this assumed 2025F EV/EBITDA of 7x for Li-Cycle, I apply a WACC of 10% to discount Li-Cycle to present-day value. As a result, my target price for Li-Cycle is $13.10, implying an upside potential of 132% from current levels. Risks Execution risk As with all early-stage companies with relatively little track record, these companies have a risk that management does not execute its strategy or plans well or in an efficient manner. As the delay in the spokes rollout has demonstrated, Li-Cycle may face further risk of execution slippage given that ramping up of the spoke and hub strategy for battery recycling has never been done before. Competition

Article d’analyse • Sep 20

Analysts Just Slashed Their Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (NYSE:LICY) EPS Numbers

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. ( NYSE:LICY ), with the analysts making...

Seeking Alpha • Sep 13

Li-Cycle Holdings Q3 2022 Earnings Preview

Li-Cycle Holdings (NYSE:LICY) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Wednesday, September 14th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.13 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $10.62M (+521.1% Y/Y). Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 4 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward.

Score flocon de neige
Évaluation	2/6
Croissance future	0/6
Performances passées	0/6
Santé financière	0/6
Dividendes	0/6

Historique des cours de bourse
Prix actuel de l'action	US$0.0009
Plus haut sur 52 semaines	US$4.98
Plus bas sur 52 semaines	US$0.000001
Bêta	0.51
Variation sur 1 mois	-98.37%
Variation sur 3 mois	-98.82%
Variation sur 1 an	-99.97%
Variation sur 3 ans	-100.00%
Variation sur 5 ans	n/a
Évolution depuis l'introduction en bourse	-100.00%

	LICY.Q	US Commercial Services	US Marché
7D	89,900.0%	1.1%	1.0%
1Y	-100.0%	-15.0%	28.7%

LICY.Q volatility
LICY.Q Average Weekly Movement	851,880.0%
Commercial Services Industry Average Movement	7.5%
Market Average Movement	7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.4%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

LICY.Q statistiques fondamentales
Capitalisation boursière	US$44.00
Bénéfices(TTM)	-US$137.70m
Recettes(TTM)	US$28.00m

LICY.Q compte de résultat (TTM)
Recettes	US$28.00m
Coût des recettes	US$76.60m
Marge brute	-US$48.60m
Autres dépenses	US$89.10m
Les revenus	-US$137.70m

Résultat par action (EPS)	-3.09
Marge brute	-173.57%
Marge bénéficiaire nette	-491.79%
Ratio dettes/capitaux propres	138.0%

Données	Dernière mise à jour (heure UTC)
Analyse de l'entreprise	2025/08/07 16:08
Cours de l'action en fin de journée	2025/08/07 00:00
Les revenus	2024/12/31
Revenus annuels	2024/12/31

Paquet	Données	Cadre temporel	Exemple de source américaine ^*
Finances de l'entreprise	10 ans	Compte de résultat Tableau des flux de trésorerie Bilan	Formulaire 10-K de la SEC Formulaire 10-Q de la SEC
Estimations consensuelles des analystes	+3 ans	Prévisions financières Objectifs de prix des analystes	Rapports de recherche des analystes Blue Matrix
Prix du marché	30 ans	Cours des actions Dividendes, scissions et actions	Données de marché ICE Formulaire S-1 de la SEC
Propriété	10 ans	Actionnaires principaux Délits d'initiés	Formulaire 4 de la SEC Formulaire 13D de la SEC
Gestion	10 ans	L'équipe dirigeante Conseil d'administration	Formulaire 10-K de la SEC Formulaire SEC DEF 14A
Principaux développements	10 ans	Annonces de l'entreprise	Formulaire 8-K de la SEC

Analyste	Institution
Robin Fiedler	BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
null null	Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation
Prashant Juvekar	Citigroup Inc

Li-Cycle Holdings (LICY.Q) Aperçu de l'action

Analyse des risques

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. Concurrents

Deep Green Waste & Recycling

Global Arena Holding

Titan Environmental Solutions

Strategic Environmental & Energy Resources

Historique des prix et performances

Nouvelles et mises à jour récentes

Glencore Canada Corporation completed the acquisition of unknown majority stake in Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (OTCPK:LICY.Q).

Glencore Canada Corporation entered into an equity and asset purchase agreement to acquire an unknown majority stake in Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (OTCPK:LICY.Q) for CAD 40 million.

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. Announces CEO Transition with Ajay Kochhar, Effective May 15, 2025

NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings Against Li-Cycle Holdings

New major risk - Shareholder dilution

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. has completed a Composite Units Offering in the amount of $14.9999 million.

Recent updates

Glencore Canada Corporation completed the acquisition of unknown majority stake in Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (OTCPK:LICY.Q).

Glencore Canada Corporation entered into an equity and asset purchase agreement to acquire an unknown majority stake in Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (OTCPK:LICY.Q) for CAD 40 million.

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. Announces CEO Transition with Ajay Kochhar, Effective May 15, 2025

NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings Against Li-Cycle Holdings

New major risk - Shareholder dilution

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. has completed a Composite Units Offering in the amount of $14.9999 million.

Price target decreased by 10.0% to US$2.25

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 32%

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$5.83 loss

Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 07, 2024

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Consensus revenue estimates increase by 48%

New minor risk - Profitability

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 08, 2024

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. Appoints Craig Cunningham as Chief Financial Officer, Effective July 20, 2024

Insider recently sold US$211k worth of stock

Li-Cycle Holdings: Stronger Liquidity Performance Needed To Boost Confidence

New major risk - Shareholder dilution

New minor risk - Market cap size

Price target decreased by 42% to US$0.67

High number of new and inexperienced directors

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 10, 2024

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. Announces Chief Financial Officer Changes

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. announced that it has received $75 million in funding from Glencore plc, Glencore Canada Corporation

Li-Cycle Holdings: Not A Buy After The Recent Run-Up

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp., Annual General Meeting, May 23, 2024

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. announced delayed annual 10-K filing

Price target decreased by 17% to US$4.25

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. Revises Production Guidance for the Year 2023

Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Files Class Action Lawsuit Against Li-Cycle Holdings Corp

Li-Cycle Holdings: The Tale Of A Failed SPAC

New major risk - Financial position

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 13, 2023

Price target decreased by 15% to US$6.13

New minor risk - Share price stability

Li-Cycle Holdings: A Generational Buying Opportunity

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. and Glencore International AG Accelerate Operational Plans for European Recycling Hub

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 52%

Co-Founder notifies of intention to sell stock

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (NYSE:LICY) acquired remaining 33% stake in Li-Cycle Norway As from Eco Stor AS and Morrow Batteries AS for $0.4 million.

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 14, 2023

Looking Back In On Li-Cycle Holdings

Price target decreased by 7.0% to US$7.44

Non-Executive Director exercised options to buy US$95k worth of stock.

Co-Founder recently sold US$710k worth of stock

Co-Founder exercised options and sold US$706k worth of stock

Some Analysts Just Cut Their Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (NYSE:LICY) Estimates

Independent Non-Executive Director exercised options to buy US$103k worth of stock.

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.058 (vs US$1.50 loss in FY 2021)

Is Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (NYSE:LICY) Potentially Undervalued?

Forecast to breakeven in 2025

Chief Financial Officer exercised options and sold US$480k worth of stock

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 32%

No longer forecast to breakeven

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Li-Cycle Holdings Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Li-Cycle: The Time Has Come For This EV Battery Recycler In 2023

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Jan 30, 2023

Li-Cycle Update: Despite Several Uncertainties, It Is A Great Opportunity

Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2025