Upcoming Dividend • May 14
Upcoming dividend of US$0.22 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 May 2026. Payment date: 02 June 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 3.9%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (5.8%). In line with average of industry peers (3.7%). Annonce • May 12
The Mosaic Company Provides Earnings and Production Guidance for Second Quarter and Full Year Ending 2026 The Mosaic Company provided earnings and production guidance for second quarter and full year ending 2026. For Potash, second quarter sales volumes are expected to be in the range of 1.9 million tonnes to 2.1 million tonnes. For Phosphate, Mosaic expects second quarter sales volumes of 1.4 million tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes with DAP prices averaging $760 to $780 per tonne on an FOB basis. Second quarter sales volumes reflect partial curtailments at Louisiana and Bartow.
For 2026, Mosaic continues to expect total potash production of approximately 9 million tonnes, reflecting an expectation of strong production at Esterhazy that more than offsets the volume impact of the Carlsbad divestiture. For Phosphate,
, Mosaic has withdrawn full year production guidance for the segment as it reviews its operating rates in the second half of the year in light of recent raw material market dynamics. New Risk • May 12
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 3.0x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (3.0x net interest cover). Shares are highly illiquid. Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 465% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.4% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2026 earnings released: US$0.81 loss per share (vs US$0.75 profit in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: US$0.81 loss per share (down from US$0.75 profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$3.00b (up 14% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: US$257.6m (down 208% from profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Apr 21
The Mosaic Company to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 11, 2026 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results Pre-Market on May 11, 2026 Annonce • Apr 17
The Mosaic Company, Annual General Meeting, May 28, 2026 The Mosaic Company, Annual General Meeting, May 28, 2026. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to Mex$543, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Chemicals industry in South America. Total loss to shareholders of 29% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Mex$463 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 11
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 16% to Mex$504. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$416, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 62%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 1.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 14% per annum over the same time period. Annonce • Mar 07
The Mosaic Company announces Quarterly dividend, payable on June 02, 2026 The Mosaic Company announced Quarterly dividend of USD 0.2200 per share payable on June 02, 2026, ex-date on May 21, 2026 and record date on May 21, 2026. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 02
Upcoming dividend of US$0.22 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 March 2026. Payment date: 19 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 52% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.2%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (5.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.8%). Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$1.70 (vs US$0.55 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$1.70 (up from US$0.55 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$12.1b (up 8.4% from FY 2024). Net income: US$540.7m (up 209% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.5% (up from 1.6% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 62% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Jan 26
Third quarter dividend of US$0.22 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.22. Ex-date: 9th March 2026 Payment date: 19th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.6%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (22% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 37% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 75% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Annonce • Jan 16
The Mosaic Company to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 24, 2026 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results After-Market on Feb 24, 2026 Declared Dividend • Dec 28
Dividend of US$0.22 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.22. Ex-date: 9th March 2026 Payment date: 19th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (22% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 36% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 75% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Declared Dividend • Nov 26
Third quarter dividend of US$0.22 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.22. Ex-date: 4th December 2025 Payment date: 18th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (22% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 37% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 75% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Board Change • Nov 26
High number of new directors Independent Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. Annonce • Nov 19
The Mosaic Company announces Quarterly dividend, payable on December 18, 2025 The Mosaic Company announced Quarterly dividend of USD 0.2200 per share payable on December 18, 2025, ex-date on December 04, 2025 and record date on December 04, 2025. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$1.29 (vs US$0.38 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$1.29 (up from US$0.38 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$3.45b (up 23% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$411.4m (up 237% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 12% (up from 4.3% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 50 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • Oct 22
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Annonce • Oct 10
The Mosaic Company to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 04, 2025 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Nov 04, 2025 Board Change • Sep 03
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. New Risk • Aug 09
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.0% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shares are highly illiquid. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (dividend per share is over 64x cash flows per share). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (Mex$12m sold). Board Change • Aug 06
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Annonce • Jul 16
The Mosaic Company to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 05, 2025 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Aug 05, 2025 Board Change • Jul 02
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Recent Insider Transactions • May 11
CEO, President & Director recently sold Mex$111m worth of stock On the 8th of May, Bruce Bodine sold around 181k shares on-market at roughly Mex$617 per share. This transaction amounted to 100% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Bruce's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$0.75 (vs US$0.14 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.75 (up from US$0.14 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$2.62b (down 2.2% from 1Q 2024). Net income: US$238.1m (up 427% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.1% (up from 1.7% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 48 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • Apr 30
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Board Change • Apr 16
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Annonce • Mar 01
The Mosaic Company Provides Sales Volumes Guidance for the First Quarter of 2025 and Production Volumes Guidance for the Full Year 2025 The Mosaic Company provided sales volumes guidance for the first quarter of 2025 and Production Volumes Guidance for the full year 2025. For the quarter, the company's Potash Sales Volumes are expected to be between 2.0 million tonnes and 2.2 million tonnes with realized mine-gate MOP prices in the range of $200 to $220 per tonne. Phosphate Sales Volumes are expected to be 1.5 million tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes with DAP prices on an FOB basis averaging $595 to $615 per tonne.
For the year, the company's Phosphate Production Volumes are expected to be 7.2 million tonnes to 7.6 million tonnes. Potash Production Volumes are expected to be 8.7 million tonnes to 9.1 million tonnes. Annonce • Feb 07
The Mosaic Company to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 27, 2025 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Feb 27, 2025 Board Change • Feb 01
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Director Kathleen Shanahan was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Declared Dividend • Jan 30
Third quarter dividend of US$0.22 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.22. Ex-date: 6th March 2025 Payment date: 20th March 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (72% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (89% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 102% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Declared Dividend • Jan 09
Third quarter dividend of US$0.22 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.22. Ex-date: 6th March 2025 Payment date: 20th March 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (72% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (89% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 107% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Declared Dividend • Dec 29
Dividend of US$0.22 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.22. Ex-date: 6th March 2025 Payment date: 20th March 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (72% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (89% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 107% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Declared Dividend • Nov 18
Third quarter dividend of US$0.21 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.21. Ex-date: 5th December 2024 Payment date: 19th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.2%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (72% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (89% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to grow by 100% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.38 (vs US$0.013 loss in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.38 (up from US$0.013 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$2.81b (down 21% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$122.2m (up US$126.4m from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 36% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Nov 12
Jarden Reportedly Tapped for Incitec Pivot Fertiliser Sale Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX:IPL)'s freshly appointed management has brought in a new investment bank to handle the sale of the distribution arm of its fertiliser business as looks to clear the decks and focus on its future as a mining explosives play. The move to break up the fertiliser unit and sell off the distribution arm was first flagged by DataRoom and announced when the company delivered its annual result on 11 November 2024. It came as the company wiped $941 million off the valuation of the Australian Incitec Pivot fertiliser division. The bank being added to the ticket is Jarden. The move comes as new boss Mauro Neves de Moraes takes over. UBS and Macquarie Capital have previously made efforts to sell the fertiliser business and Macquarie still has a role. This time, though, it appears that the group is motivated to move it off its books and look to a future focused on its more successful commercial explosives operation Dyno Nobel, so it is expected to take a realistic approach to price. Former Incitec Pivot management held out for top dollar when trying to sell its fertiliser unit twice before, and opposed a business break-up. Most buyers were keen to buy the distribution arm and few were interested in taking on the more problematic manufacturing operation. But now, with distribution available separately, the sale process is likely to involve plenty of competitive tension. Australian listed trade buyers like Elders Limited (ASX:ELD) and Ridley Corporation Limited (ASX:RIC) and global strategics like The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) and Nutrien Ltd. (TSX:NTR), which has a major Australian presence, will be going head to head with private equity firms like Pacific Equity Partners and BGH Capital, which have been sounded out by investment bankers in recent months. It's clear the market is in favour of the decision, with shares closing higher, despite a thumping $311 million loss and an overall $1 billion writedown to the fertiliser unit. The writedown included $100m for its US operations Most of the rest was linked to the Australian manufacturing operations. The sale process will get going in earnest early next year. The book value is now $414.3 million, compared to more than $1 billion in the past. Private equity in the past has put forward offers of less than $500 million for the fertiliser business, but that was when manufacturing was also part of the picture, although they will be still keen to snap up the operation at an opportunistic price. Annonce • Nov 11
Incitec Pivot to Revive Fertiliser Business Sale Campaign The $6 billion listed industrials group Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX:IPL) is set to announce a revived sale process for its fertiliser business when it reports annual earnings on November 11, 2024 and is prepared to break up the division, valued at $1.1 billion. It confirms earlier reports in DataRoom that a fresh sale process would start in 2025 with private equity funds such as Pacific Equity Partners positioning to buy the business. Incitec Pivot is increasingly keen to distance itself from the fertiliser business and carry on as a pure-play explosives and industrial chemicals manufacturer, and has signalled this to investors. It has tried to sell the business before. There has been some informal interest from strategic players, with suggestions that groups such as Ridley or Nutrien may be keen to buy Incitec Pivot's distribution assets. Strategic buyers include Nutrient, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) and The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS). Incitec Pivot held talks with Indonesia's Pupuk Kaltim for a sale of the unit earlier this year for a price thought to be more than $1 billion, but there was no deal. Morningstar says the fertiliser unit accounts for about a third of the stock's fair value - which means it comes in at about $1.2 billion. The sale comes as KPMG has been tapped to sell smaller rival Wengfu Australia. Wengfu distributes fertiliser along the east coast, with assets in Brisbane, Newcastle, Geelong, Portland and Adelaide. Market sources say that it is expected to sell for between $50 million and $80 million. However, if it sold for a similar price to the Incitec Pivot unit it would be closer to $200 million. Its parent company is Guizhou Phosphate and Chemical Group. The understanding is a data room is open. There are three overseas buyers but no domestic interest. The deal is likely to be completed in the first half of 2025. Annonce • Oct 23
The Mosaic Company to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 12, 2024 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results Pre-Market on Nov 12, 2024 Annonce • Sep 23
The Mosaic Company(NYSE:MOS) dropped from FTSE All-World Index (USD) The Mosaic Company(NYSE:MOS) dropped from FTSE All-World Index (USD) Declared Dividend • Aug 26
Second quarter dividend of US$0.21 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.21. Ex-date: 5th September 2024 Payment date: 19th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (109% earnings payout ratio). However, it is covered by cash flows (58% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 21% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 121% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 14
Independent Director recently sold Mex$6.6m worth of stock On the 12th of August, Kelvin Westbrook sold around 13k shares on-market at roughly Mex$519 per share. This transaction amounted to 27% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: US$0.50 loss per share (vs US$1.11 profit in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: US$0.50 loss per share (down from US$1.11 profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$2.82b (down 17% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: US$161.5m (down 144% from profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 8% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Jul 18
The Mosaic Company to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 06, 2024 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results After-Market on Aug 06, 2024 Annonce • Jun 25
The Mosaic Company Reiterates Sales Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2024 The Mosaic Company reiterated sales guidance for the second quarter of 2024. For the period, the company expects Potash sales volume and MOP prices at the mine are expected to be in the range 2.2-2.4 million tonnes, and $210-$250 per tonne, respectively. Upcoming Dividend • May 30
Upcoming dividend of US$0.21 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 June 2024. Payment date: 20 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 34% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.8%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (6.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (11%). Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.14 (vs US$1.30 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.14 (down from US$1.30 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$2.68b (down 26% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$45.2m (down 90% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.7% (down from 12% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Annonce • Apr 26
The Mosaic Company, Annual General Meeting, Jun 06, 2024 The Mosaic Company, Annual General Meeting, Jun 06, 2024, at 10:00 US Eastern Standard Time. Declared Dividend • Apr 23
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.21 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.21. Ex-date: 6th June 2024 Payment date: 20th June 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (23% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (27% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 2.0% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 75% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Annonce • Apr 11
The Mosaic Company to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 01, 2024 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results After-Market on May 01, 2024 Declared Dividend • Mar 25
Dividend of US$0.21 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.21. Ex-date: 6th June 2024 Payment date: 20th June 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (23% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (27% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. New Risk • Mar 01
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.03% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shares are highly illiquid. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.03% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (8.5% net profit margin). Upcoming Dividend • Feb 28
Upcoming dividend of US$0.21 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 March 2024. Payment date: 21 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 23% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.7%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (6.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (11%). Reported Earnings • Feb 22
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$3.50 (vs US$10.17 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$3.50 (down from US$10.17 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$13.7b (down 28% from FY 2022). Net income: US$1.16b (down 68% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 8.5% (down from 19% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Annonce • Feb 02
The Mosaic Company to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 21, 2024 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results After-Market on Feb 21, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 25
Now 25% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 12% to Mex$535. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$710, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 27% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 2.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 2.3% per annum over the same time period. Declared Dividend • Jan 18
Dividend of US$0.21 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.21. Ex-date: 6th March 2024 Payment date: 21st March 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (20% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (19% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 7.5% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 78% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 30
Upcoming dividend of US$0.20 per share at 2.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 December 2023. Payment date: 21 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.2%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (7.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (9.4%). Annonce • Nov 10
the Mosaic Company Provides Sales Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2023 The Mosaic Company provided sales guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023. For the quarter, the company expects sales volumes to be 1.6-1.8 million tonnes. DAP prices at the plant are expected to be in the range of $530-$580 per tonne. Fourth quarter realized stripping margins are expected to be higher than the third quarter. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.013 loss per share (vs US$2.45 profit in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: US$0.013 loss per share (down from US$2.45 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$3.55b (down 34% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: US$4.20m (down 100% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in South America are expected to grow by 3.7%. Annonce • Oct 18
The Mosaic Company to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 07, 2023 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results After-Market on Nov 07, 2023 Annonce • Sep 14
the Mosaic Company Provides Operational Guidance for the Third Quarter of 2023 The Mosaic Company provided operational guidance for the third quarter of 2023. For the third quarter, Potash sales volumes are expected to be near the high end of the previous guidance range of 2.1-2.3 million tonnes, reflecting the impact of ongoing strong demand in North America. MOP price guidance remains unchanged at $250-$300 per tonne. In Phosphates, third quarter sales volumes are expected to be in the range of 1.6-1.8 million tonnes. Shipments during the quarter were impacted by Hurricane Idalia, which required a brief proactive production halt. Florida operations, which operate at a rate of roughly 20,000 finished product tonnes per day, resumed production within three days. In Louisiana, an unexpected local utility power interruption at the end of August resulted in damage to the largest sulfuric acid plant at Louisiana's Uncle Sam facility. Repairs to the complex, which operates at a production rate of 15,000 finished product tonnes per week, are anticipated to be completed by the end of October. Third quarter realized DAP prices on a FOB basis are expected to be in the previous guidance range of $475-$525 per tonne. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 30
Upcoming dividend of US$0.20 per share at 2.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 September 2023. Payment date: 21 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 14% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (6.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (17%). Annonce • Aug 17
The Mosaic Company Unveils Mosaic Biosciences to Expand Offerings in Plant Health The Mosaic Company announced the formation of the Mosaic Biosciences™ platform, a global initiative to bring the latest science and innovation to the agriculture market. The technologies from Mosaic Biosciences enhance crop health and support the natural biology in plants and soil, ultimately maximizing the yield potential of every field. The Mosaic Biosciences portfolio includes biological fertilizer complements, PowerCoat® and BioPath®, which improve nutrient use efficiency and enhance plant growth and vigor. Additional products help mitigate abiotic stress from drought, heat and salinity. With a global team of scientists, Mosaic Biosciences is building a pipeline of new biologic products to drive improvements in plant health, stress management, nutrient uptake, and crop yield. New Risk • Aug 03
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 13% Last year net profit margin: 20% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shares are highly illiquid. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 19% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (13% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 02
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$1.11 (vs US$2.88 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$1.11 (down from US$2.88 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$3.39b (down 37% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$369.0m (down 64% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 11% (down from 19% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 7.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 70% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Jul 21
The Mosaic Company to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 01, 2023 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results After-Market on Aug 01, 2023 Annonce • Jun 25
The Mosaic Company(NYSE:MOS) dropped from Russell 1000 Growth Index The Mosaic Company(NYSE:MOS) dropped from Russell 1000 Growth Index Annonce • Jun 24
The Mosaic Company Provides Sales Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2023 The Mosaic Company provided sales guidance for the second quarter of 2023. For the quarter, the company expect potash sales volumes toward the high end of the previous guidance range of 2.0-2.2 million tonnes, reflecting the impact of strong spring demand in North America. For pricing, the company now expect realized MOP prices at the mine near the low end of previous range of $325-$375 per tonne. The updated pricing guidance incorporates the recent China contract settlement of $307 per tonne. Board Change • Jun 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 4 experienced directors. 6 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Joo Teixeira was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • May 24
Upcoming dividend of US$0.20 per share at 2.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 May 2023. Payment date: 15 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 10% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.2%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (6.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (22%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 11
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to Mex$635, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Chemicals industry globally. Total returns to shareholders of 174% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Mex$505 per share. Reported Earnings • May 05
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$1.30 (vs US$3.23 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$1.30 (down from US$3.23 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$3.60b (down 8.1% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$434.8m (down 63% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 30% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 88% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 40% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 17
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to Mex$834, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Chemicals industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 165% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Mex$556 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 07
Upcoming dividend of US$0.25 per share at 1.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 March 2023. Payment date: 30 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 6.4% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (6.0%). Lower than average of industry peers (13%). Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$10.17 (vs US$4.31 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$10.17 (up from US$4.31 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$19.1b (up 55% from FY 2021). Net income: US$3.58b (up 120% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 19% (up from 13% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 10.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 2.0% decline forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 100% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 22
Upcoming dividend of US$0.20 per share at 1.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 01 March 2023. Payment date: 16 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 5.1% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (13%). Annonce • Feb 02
The Mosaic Company to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 22, 2023 The Mosaic Company announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results at 4:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Feb 22, 2023 Annonce • Jan 06
The Mosaic Company Announces Management Changes The Mosaic Company announced that Phil Bauer has been promoted to Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary effective January 3, 2023. Bauer will lead a global legal team responsible for closely collaborating with Mosaic's Board of Directors, Senior Leadership Team, business units and other functions to offer practical approaches to challenges and opportunities. Since joining Mosaic in 2007, Bauer has managed legal support for business development activities, potash operations, offshore finance, commercial transactions and corporate governance. His most recent assignment was as VP-Growth and Development where he helped drive strategic vision across the organization, including the advancement of Mosaic's soil health strategy and other innovation initiatives. Prior to joining Mosaic, Bauer was a partner at an international law firm where he focused his practice on mergers and acquisitions, public and private securities offerings and public company compliance matters, as well as general business advising. Bauer earned his Juris Doctor degree from The George Washington University Law School in Washington D.C., and his Bachelor of Science in Foreign Service degree with honors from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service where he majored in international politics. He also received his Master of Business Administration degree from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. Bauer succeeds Mark Isaacson, who is retiring in early 2023 after 34 years with Mosaic and predecessor companies. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 23
Upcoming dividend of US$0.15 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 November 2022. Payment date: 15 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 3.6% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.2%. Lower than top quartile of Mexican dividend payers (6.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (13%). Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: Revenue: US$5.35b (up 56% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$841.7m (up 126% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 16% (up from 11% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.0% decline forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Board Change • Nov 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 4 experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Gretchen Watkins was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Board Change • Oct 02
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 4 experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Gretchen Watkins was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. 
