Major Estimate Revision • 11m
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2027 has been updated. 2027 revenue forecast increased from JP¥186.3b to JP¥191.8b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥63.33 to JP¥54.67 per share. Net income forecast to grow 9.9% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥764 to JP¥660. Share price was steady at JP¥684 over the past week. Price Target Changed • 11m
Price target decreased by 14% to JP¥660 Down from JP¥764, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥684. Stock is down 6.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥54.67 for next year compared to JP¥47.95 last year. Annonce • May 30
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2027 Results on Aug 10, 2026 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2027 results on Aug 10, 2026 Board Change • May 18
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 2 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Director Masaki Nogami was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • May 13
Full year 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥144. Revenue: JP¥189.0b (down 3.0% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥6.92b (down 26% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 3.7% (down from 4.8% in FY 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 20%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 8.2% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Annonce • May 12
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026. Annonce • May 10
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 12, 2026 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 12, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥81.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 29 June 2026. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 95%, however this is supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 5.6%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). Price Target Changed • Mar 03
Price target increased by 9.5% to JP¥2,300 Up from JP¥2,100, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 9.6% below last closing price of JP¥2,544. Stock is up 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥179 for next year compared to JP¥190 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥26.45 (vs JP¥46.76 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥26.45 (down from JP¥46.76 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥46.8b (down 3.2% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.27b (down 45% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.7% (down from 4.8% in 3Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 42% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Annonce • Dec 03
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Feb 13, 2026 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Feb 13, 2026 Declared Dividend • Nov 27
First half dividend of JP¥81.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥81.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 29th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 5.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (55% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (54% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.9% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 4.8% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: JP¥30.83 loss per share (vs JP¥28.68 loss in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: JP¥30.83 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥28.68 loss in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥38.3b (down 1.9% from 2Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥1.50b (loss widened 4.7% from 2Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 34% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Annonce • Nov 11
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. (TSE:8219) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,400,000 shares, representing 2.86% for ¥3,000 million. Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. (TSE:8219) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 1,500,000 shares, representing 2.98% of the outstanding shares for ¥3,000 million. The purpose of the program is to expand shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency. The program will run until March 24, 2026. As of September 30, 2025, there are 48,932,536 outstanding shares (excluding treasury stock) and 1,461,480 treasury shares. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 01
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.8% to JP¥2,353. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,022, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 26%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.5% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 5.8% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥55.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 27 November 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 71% and the cash payout ratio is 79%. Trailing yield: 5.4%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Annonce • Sep 02
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Nov 11, 2025 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Nov 11, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 25
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 10% to JP¥2,436. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,046, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 26%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.5% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 5.8% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Aug 10
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥13.21 (vs JP¥16.04 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥13.21 (down from JP¥16.04 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥43.7b (down 2.9% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥641.0m (down 20% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 1.8% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 40% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend of JP¥55.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥55.00. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 27th November 2025 Dividend yield will be 7.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (49% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (79% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.9% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 6.9% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 46% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Jul 01
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥190 (down from JP¥202 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥194.8b (flat on FY 2024). Net income: JP¥9.40b (down 6.9% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 5.2% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 36% per year. Annonce • Jun 27
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Aug 08, 2025 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Aug 08, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 15
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥190 (vs JP¥202 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥190 (down from JP¥202 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥194.8b (flat on FY 2024). Net income: JP¥9.40b (down 6.9% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 5.2% in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 39% per year. Annonce • May 13
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2025 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2025. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥97.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 30 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 49% and the cash payout ratio is 98%. Trailing yield: 5.9%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.5%). Annonce • Mar 05
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 13, 2025 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 13, 2025 Price Target Changed • Feb 21
Price target increased by 13% to JP¥1,950 Up from JP¥1,720, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 5.7% below last closing price of JP¥2,068. Stock is up 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥169 for next year compared to JP¥202 last year. New Risk • Feb 20
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (98% cash payout ratio). Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥46.76 (vs JP¥41.82 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥46.76 (up from JP¥41.82 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥48.4b (flat on 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥2.30b (up 11% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.8% (up from 4.3% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 78% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 41% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥144 to JP¥164. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥195.0b. Net income forecast to shrink 6.6% next year vs 8.8% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥1,620 to JP¥1,720. Share price rose 4.5% to JP¥2,340 over the past week. Annonce • Dec 14
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Feb 14, 2025 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Feb 14, 2025 Declared Dividend • Nov 28
First half dividend of JP¥97.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥97.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 30th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 5.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (101% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.1% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 6.3% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 63% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥28.68 loss per share (vs JP¥15.38 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥28.68 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥15.38 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥39.1b (flat on 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥1.43b (loss widened 86% from 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 104% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 38% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Nov 13
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.0% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to JP¥1,634, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 144% over the past three years. Annonce • Sep 27
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Nov 12, 2024 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Nov 12, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Sep 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥164 to JP¥144 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥194.8b. Net income forecast to shrink 24% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥1,620. Share price fell 5.4% to JP¥1,358 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥16.04 (vs JP¥24.68 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥16.04 (down from JP¥24.68 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥45.0b (up 1.5% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥800.0m (down 35% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 2.8% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 115% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 27% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Aug 05
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.8% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.8% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22% After last week's 22% share price decline to JP¥1,169, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 88% over the past three years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 02
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 14% to JP¥1,405. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,763, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.1% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.9% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 2.4% per annum over the same time period. Annonce • Jun 26
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Aug 09, 2024 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Aug 09, 2024 Annonce • May 15
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024. New Risk • May 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 13% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 13% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • May 12
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥202 (up from JP¥85.84 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥193.7b (up 5.5% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥10.1b (up 136% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 5.2% (up from 2.3% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 42%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 119% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Mar 22
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 10, 2024 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 10, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥60.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 01 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 16% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.3%). Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥41.82 (vs JP¥25.40 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥41.82 (up from JP¥25.40 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥48.2b (up 4.0% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥2.09b (up 65% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from 2.7% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 111% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 37% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Dec 01
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 09, 2024 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 09, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 22
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 20% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from JP¥98.30 to JP¥118. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥192.7b. Net income forecast to shrink 17% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥1,200 to JP¥1,270. Share price rose 8.0% to JP¥1,558 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥15.38 loss per share (vs JP¥49.63 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: JP¥15.38 loss per share (improved from JP¥49.63 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥38.7b (up 7.9% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥767.0m (loss narrowed 69% from 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.5% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 101% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 42% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Oct 10
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Annonce • Sep 28
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 10, 2023 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 10, 2023 Buying Opportunity • Sep 05
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 31%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,160, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.5% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 2.4% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 29
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 26% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥192.2b to JP¥194.4b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥78.20 to JP¥98.30 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 9.8% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥1,100 to JP¥1,200. Share price rose 7.2% to JP¥1,587 over the past week. New Risk • Aug 14
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.9% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥24.68 (vs JP¥0.44 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥24.68 (up from JP¥0.44 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥44.3b (up 8.3% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.23b (up JP¥1.21b from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.8% (up from 0.1% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 86% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 26% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Jun 26
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 10, 2023 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 10, 2023 Buying Opportunity • May 24
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 28%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,492, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 3.3% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.6% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 2.0% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • May 23
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥181.3b to JP¥192.2b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥66.20 to JP¥78.20 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 8.8% next year vs 8.3% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥900 to JP¥1,100. Share price rose 2.3% to JP¥1,200 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 22
Price target increased by 28% to JP¥1,100 Up from JP¥860, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,149. Stock is up 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥78.20 for next year compared to JP¥85.84 last year. Reported Earnings • May 17
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥85.84 (up from JP¥27.10 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥183.5b (up 11% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥4.28b (up 217% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.3% (up from 0.8% in FY 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 58%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 68% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to JP¥1,118, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 46% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥21.00 per share at 2.3% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 30 June 2023. Trailing yield: 2.3%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.5%). Buying Opportunity • Mar 10
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 13%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,291, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 8.4% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.02% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 3.1% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 20
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from JP¥187.1b to JP¥183.0b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥46.10 to JP¥54.20. Net income forecast to shrink 37% next year vs 5.0% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥860 to JP¥900. Share price rose 8.2% to JP¥951 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.40 (vs JP¥54.90 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥25.40 (down from JP¥54.90 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥46.4b (up 4.9% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.27b (down 54% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.7% (down from 6.2% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 44% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buying Opportunity • Feb 02
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 16%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,142, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 13% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.5% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 11% per annum over the same time period. Annonce • Dec 18
Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Feb 10, 2023 Aoyama Trading Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Feb 10, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 23
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 21% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥177.5b to JP¥187.1b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥38.10 to JP¥46.10 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 61% next year vs 5.1% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥740 to JP¥860. Share price was steady at JP¥961 over the past week. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. 3 highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (4 non-independent directors). Independent Outside Director Toru Watanabe was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥49.63 loss per share (vs JP¥97.56 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: JP¥49.63 loss per share (improved from JP¥97.56 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥35.9b (up 22% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥2.47b (loss narrowed 49% from 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Specialty Retail industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 19
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from JP¥30.10 to JP¥38.10. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥177.5b. Net income forecast to shrink 52% next year vs 2.4% growth forecast for Specialty Retail industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥680 to JP¥740. Share price rose 6.2% to JP¥909 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥0.44 (vs JP¥54.75 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥0.44 (up from JP¥54.75 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥40.9b (up 8.4% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥22.0m (up JP¥2.75b from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 0.1% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 4.0%, compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 24% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Price Target Changed • May 25
Price target increased to JP¥680 Up from JP¥630, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 17% below last closing price of JP¥823. Stock is down 3.2% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥30.10 for next year compared to JP¥27.10 last year. 