Major Estimate Revision • 16h
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 42%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2027 has been updated. 2027 revenue forecast increased from JP¥301.5b to JP¥313.0b. EPS estimate fell from JP¥78.50 to JP¥45.30 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 1.4% next year vs 30% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥900 to JP¥820. Share price rose 4.3% to JP¥872 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 20
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.3% to JP¥859. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥704, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 89% in the next 2 years. Annonce • May 15
Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026 Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 26, 2026. Annonce • May 09
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 15, 2026 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 15, 2026 Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased by 11% to JP¥900 Down from JP¥1,010, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥881. Stock is down 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥39.80 for next year compared to JP¥92.34 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Hiroko Nihei was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Annonce • Mar 27
Daio Paper Corporation (TSE:3880) completed the acquisition of 16.24% stake in Hokuetsu Corporation (TSE:3865) from Daio Kaiun Co.,Ltd. and Misuga Kaiun Co., Ltd. Daio Paper Corporation (TSE:3880) agreed to acquire an additional 16.23% stake in Hokuetsu Corporation (TSE:3865) from Daio Kaiun Co.,Ltd. and Misuga Kaiun Co., Ltd. for ¥26.3 billion on March 18, 2026. A cash consideration of ¥26.34 billion will be paid by Daio Paper Corporation. As part of consideration, ¥26.34 billion is paid towards common equity of Hokuetsu Corporation. Before completion, Daio Paper Corporation owns 1.35% stake in Hokuetsu Corporation. Upon completion, Daio Paper Corporation will own 17.58% stake in Hokuetsu Corporation.
The expected completion of the transaction is March 27, 2026.
Daio Paper Corporation (TSE:3880) completed the acquisition of 16.24% stake in Hokuetsu Corporation (TSE:3865) from Daio Kaiun Co.,Ltd. and Misuga Kaiun Co., Ltd. on March 27, 2026. Annonce • Mar 19
Hokuetsu Corporation (TSE:3865) announces an Equity Buyback for 10,000,000 shares, representing 5.92% for ¥10,700 million. Hokuetsu Corporation (TSE:3865) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase 10,000,000 shares, representing 5.92% of its share capital, for ¥10,700 million. The company will repurchase its shares in order to improve capital efficiency, strengthen shareholder returns, and mitigate the temporary impact on supply and demand of its shares following to the sale of its common shares. The program will run until March 26, 2026. As of September 30, 2025, the company had 168,814,269 shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares) and 19,238,845 shares in treasury. Annonce • Dec 24
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Feb 13, 2026 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Feb 13, 2026 New Risk • Dec 18
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (114% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.5% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Declared Dividend • Dec 03
First half dividend of JP¥13.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥13.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 30th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (35% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (114% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 8.0% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 56% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 58% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥300.5b to JP¥292.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥95.70 per share to JP¥39.80 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 17% next year vs 43% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥1,010 to JP¥900. Share price was steady at JP¥858 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 20
Price target decreased by 14% to JP¥900 Down from JP¥1,050, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 9.0% above last closing price of JP¥826. Stock is down 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥39.80 for next year compared to JP¥92.34 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥1.12 (vs JP¥23.30 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥1.12 (down from JP¥23.30 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥67.4b (down 10% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥189.0m (down 95% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 0.3% (down from 5.2% in 2Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 29
Now 27% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 18% to JP¥836. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,147, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.5%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.0% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 9.1% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥13.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 03 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.3%). Annonce • Sep 18
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Nov 14, 2025 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Nov 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥13.00 (vs JP¥14.05 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥13.00 (down from JP¥14.05 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥72.4b (down 2.5% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥2.19b (down 7.5% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 3.0% (down from 3.2% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend increased to JP¥13.00 Dividend of JP¥13.00 is 18% higher than last year. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 3rd December 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.3%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (27% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (19% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 8.0% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 8.9% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annonce • Jun 21
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Aug 08, 2025 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Aug 08, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 20
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 30% to JP¥1,037. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,321, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 12%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.2% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 11% in the next 2 years. Annonce • May 15
Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2025 Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2025. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 04
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 29% to JP¥1,084. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,361, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 37%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 36% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥11.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 30 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 12% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.7%). Annonce • Mar 20
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 15, 2025 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results at 3:00 PM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 15, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥30.91 (vs JP¥12.59 loss in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥30.91 (up from JP¥12.59 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥80.2b (up 6.7% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥5.20b (up JP¥7.32b from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.5% (up from net loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 37% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 24% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • Dec 20
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Feb 14, 2025 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Feb 14, 2025 Declared Dividend • Dec 04
First half dividend of JP¥11.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥11.00. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 30th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (29% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (21% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 101% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annonce • Sep 25
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Nov 14, 2024 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Nov 14, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 25
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥1,698, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Forestry industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 162% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥11.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 04 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 68% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.9%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 03
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 29% After last week's 29% share price decline to JP¥1,479, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Forestry industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 147% over the past three years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 27
Now 33% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 87% to JP¥2,090. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,567, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 44%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 281% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 16
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to JP¥1,435, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Forestry industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 174% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥14.05 (vs JP¥37.62 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥14.05 (down from JP¥37.62 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥74.2b (down 1.4% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥2.36b (down 63% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.2% (down from 8.4% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 44% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 28% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend increased to JP¥11.00 Dividend of JP¥11.00 is 22% higher than last year. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 4th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 1.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (26% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (42% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 6.2% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 64% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annonce • Jun 23
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Aug 09, 2024 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Aug 09, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 27
Now 23% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 17% to JP¥1,159. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥943, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 32%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 91% in the next 2 years. Annonce • May 20
Oasis Response to Hokuetsu’s Announcement on Reducing Daio Paper Stake On May 19, 2024, Oasis Management Company Ltd. announced that Hokuetsu Corporation recent May 15 announcement is a transparent attempt by President Kishimoto to yet again overpromise and underdeliver. Hokuetsu claims it will achieve JPY 3 billion in synergies in FY27/3 with Daio Paper, while simultaneously reducing its Daio Paper stake. Further, Oasis Management stated that it never seen a case where a company announces a strategic alliance while simultaneously divesting its cross-shareholdings of that strategic partner. Moreover, there were no numerical details provided on where the synergies are to be gained from or by when, nor did they disclose to whom and at what price they plan to sell their Daio shares. Reported Earnings • May 19
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥49.94 (up from JP¥49.54 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥297.1b (down 1.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥8.40b (flat on FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.8% (in line with FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 41%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 24% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • May 17
Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024 Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024. Annonce • May 09
Oasis Provides Information to the Shareholders of Hokuetsu Corporation On May 7, 2024, Oasis Management Company Ltd. announced that it has adopted the Japan FSA’s Principles of Responsible Institutional Investors (a/k/a the Japan Stewardship Code), and in line with those principles, Oasis monitors and engages with its investee companies. Oasis has been engaging with Hokuetsu Corporation since 2019 to help improve the Company’s corporate governance and corporate value. Additionally, Oasis urging all shareholders to improve the Company’s governance and corporate value to vote for Oasis’s proposal to dismiss CEO & President Sekio Kishimoto, dismiss all 4 incumbent independent directors, and elect the 5 independent directors, and diverse director candidates nominated by Oasis as independent directors at Company’s AGM. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 17
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to JP¥1,307, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Forestry industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 154% over the past three years. Annonce • Mar 27
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 15, 2024 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 15, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to JP¥2,361, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Forestry industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 386% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 01 July 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 26% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 0.8%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.9%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to JP¥1,811, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Forestry industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 260% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥12.59 loss per share (vs JP¥11.69 profit in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: JP¥12.59 loss per share (down from JP¥11.69 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥75.2b (down 5.5% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥2.12b (down 208% from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 36% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 29
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to JP¥1,417, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Forestry industry in Asia. Total returns to shareholders of 273% over the past three years. Annonce • Dec 23
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 13, 2024 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 13, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥18.32 (vs JP¥10.30 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥18.32 (up from JP¥10.30 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥74.9b (up 6.5% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥3.08b (up JP¥4.81b from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.1% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.6% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 48% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • Sep 23
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 10, 2023 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 10, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share at 1.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 05 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.2%). Reported Earnings • Aug 12
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥37.62 (vs JP¥21.96 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥37.62 (up from JP¥21.96 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥75.3b (up 14% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥6.32b (up 71% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.4% (up from 5.6% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.6% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 35% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Aug 11
Price target increased by 14% to JP¥810 Up from JP¥710, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 9.3% below last closing price of JP¥893. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥85.10 for next year compared to JP¥49.53 last year. Annonce • Jun 26
Hokuetsu Corporation to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 10, 2023 Hokuetsu Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 10, 2023 Annonce • Jun 14
Oasis Management Issues Statement in Response to the Hokuetsu Board of Directors On June 12, 2023, Oasis Management Company Ltd announced that it has issued a statement in response to the Hokuetsu Corporation Board’s Opinion on Oasis’s presentation on June 2, 2023, where the Company acknowledges that it does not hold the Daio shares for pure investment purposes and admits that it needs to improve its relationship with Daio. In addition, Oasis Management stated that after the launch of its campaign against the Company it has received several e-mails from stakeholders expressing a sincere desire to improve Company’s governance and among them it has received a message from a former Company employee expresses concerns about the president’s personal interests and salary cuts for employees, and says he cannot see a future for the Company and Oasis Management stated that it believes now is the time to put an end to the old system and give Company employees hope for the future. Further, Oasis Management urged the shareholders to vote against the re-election of Mr. Kishimoto, at the 2023 annual meeting of shareholders. Annonce • May 22
Oasis Management Urges Hokuetsu Shareholders to Vote Against CEO Re-Election On May 22, 2023, Oasis Management announced that it urged the shareholders of Hokuetsu Corp to vote against the re-election of CEO Sekio Kishimoto after Hokuetsu Corporation refused a call to sell its stake in a Daio Paper Corp. Further, Oasis Management stated that the departure of Kishimoto would enhance Hokuetsu's corporate value over the long term. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥49.53 (down from JP¥126 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥301.2b (up 15% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥8.33b (down 61% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.8% (down from 8.1% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 41%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.3% growth forecast for the Forestry industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 32% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Annonce • May 14
Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2023 Hokuetsu Corporation, Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2023. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share at 2.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 30 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 46% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.7%). Major Estimate Revision • Feb 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 56% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from JP¥80.40 to JP¥35.10 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥294.3b. Net income forecast to grow 373% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Forestry industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥680 to JP¥710. Share price rose 6.4% to JP¥798 over the past week.