Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 02
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 3.3% to JP¥3,940. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,268, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 20%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 53% per annum over the same time period. Annonce • Jun 17
Gunze Limited to Report Q1, 2027 Results on Aug 05, 2026 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2027 results on Aug 05, 2026 Reported Earnings • May 17
Full year 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥15.80 (down from JP¥190 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥130.9b (down 4.5% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥509.0m (down 92% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 0.4% (down from 4.6% in FY 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 68%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.5% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 20% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 18% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • May 14
Gunze Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026 Gunze Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2026. Annonce • May 09
Gunze Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 14, 2026 Gunze Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on May 14, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥216 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 26 June 2026. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 3.6%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 29% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥136.1b to JP¥132.5b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥74.35 per share to JP¥53.10 per share. Net income forecast to grow 55% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,233. Share price fell 2.2% to JP¥4,305 over the past week. Annonce • Mar 06
Gunze Limited Announces Executive Changes, Effective April 1, 2026 Gunze Limited announced that, at its Board of Directors meeting held on March 6, 2026, the Company resolved the following changes. Tomohisa Okuda, Current position: Director and Corporate Officer, General Manager, Technology & Development Department; New position: Director and Managing Corporate Officer, President, Plastic Film Company; Yuji Hanaoka, Current position: Corporate Officer, President, Plastic Film Company; New position: Corporate Officer, Assistant to General Manager, Corporate Strategy Department. Reported Earnings • Feb 07
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥61.39 (vs JP¥44.88 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥61.39 (up from JP¥44.88 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥34.6b (down 2.8% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.98b (up 34% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 5.7% (up from 4.2% in 3Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 7.9% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 28% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jan 09
Dividend of JP¥216 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥216. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 26th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (354% earnings payout ratio) and the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 15% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 293% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 221% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Annonce • Jan 08
Gunze Limited announces Annual dividend, payable on June 26, 2026 Gunze Limited announced Annual dividend of JPY 147.0000 per share payable on June 26, 2026, ex-date on March 30, 2026 and record date on March 31, 2026. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥139.2b to JP¥137.8b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥88.61 per share to JP¥76.95 per share. Net income forecast to grow 67% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥3,593 to JP¥3,900. Share price was steady at JP¥4,165 over the past week. Annonce • Nov 29
Gunze Limited to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Feb 05, 2026 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results on Feb 05, 2026 Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.09 (vs JP¥40.63 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥25.09 (down from JP¥40.63 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥33.0b (down 2.7% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥815.0m (down 40% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.5% (down from 4.0% in 2Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 26% per year. Board Change • Nov 06
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Rie Kida was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Annonce • Nov 05
Gunze Limited (TSE:3002) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,400,000 shares, representing 4.31% for ¥5,000 million. Gunze Limited (TSE:3002) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 1,400,000 shares, representing 4.31% of its issued share capital, for ¥5,000 million. The program is to execute a flexible capital policy based on shareholder return policy to ensure stable and continuous return of profits to shareholders and sustainable enhancement of corporate values. The program is valid till March 24, 2026. As of September 30, 2025, there are 32,494,381 outstanding shares (excluding treasury stock) and 2,092,651 treasury shares. Annonce • Sep 01
Gunze Limited to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Nov 05, 2025 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Nov 05, 2025 Price Target Changed • Aug 08
Price target increased by 11% to JP¥3,593 Up from JP¥3,243, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥3,760. Stock is up 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥89.83 for next year compared to JP¥190 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 08
First quarter 2026 earnings released: JP¥45.37 loss per share (vs JP¥47.96 profit in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: JP¥45.37 loss per share (down from JP¥47.96 profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥32.2b (down 3.4% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥1.47b (down 192% from profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 24% per year. New Risk • Aug 08
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 35% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 296% Dividend per share is over 5x cash flows per share. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.4% net profit margin). New Risk • Jul 09
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (dividend per share is over 5x cash flows per share). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.0% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Jun 29
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥379 (up from JP¥151 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥137.1b (up 3.2% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥6.28b (up 23% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.6% (up from 3.8% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 7.5%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 24% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 18
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from JP¥86.20 to JP¥95.15. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥139.4b. Net income forecast to shrink 51% next year vs 8.9% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,243. Share price fell 4.1% to JP¥3,465 over the past week. Annonce • May 31
Gunze Limited to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Aug 06, 2025 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Aug 06, 2025 New Risk • May 22
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. Cash payout ratio: 185% Dividend yield: 2.5% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Major Estimate Revision • May 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 61% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from JP¥224 to JP¥86.20 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥140.0b. Net income forecast to shrink 32% next year vs 9.3% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan . Consensus price target up from JP¥3,017 to JP¥3,183. Share price rose 14% to JP¥2,997 over the past week. Annonce • May 14
Gunze Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025 Gunze Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 25, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to JP¥3,125, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Luxury industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 86% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥1,891 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥157 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 26 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 46% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.8%). Annonce • Mar 01
Gunze Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 14, 2025 Gunze Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥89.76 (vs JP¥78.15 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥89.76 (up from JP¥78.15 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥35.6b (down 2.0% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.49b (up 12% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from 3.7% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Jan 06
Dividend of JP¥157 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥157. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 26th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (47% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (74% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.7% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 50% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Annonce • Dec 03
Gunze Limited to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Feb 06, 2025 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Feb 06, 2025 Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥81.26 (vs JP¥62.79 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥81.26 (up from JP¥62.79 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥33.9b (up 1.5% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.36b (up 27% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from 3.2% in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Annonce • Nov 06
Gunze Limited (TSE:3002) announces an Equity Buyback for 460,000 shares, representing 2.76% for ¥2,600 million. Gunze Limited (TSE:3002) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 460,000 shares, representing 2.76% of its issued share capital, for ¥2,600 million. The program is to execute a flexible capital policy based on the the financial strategy of mid-term management plan 'VISION 2030 stage1'. The program is valid till March 24, 2025. As of September 30, 2024, there are 16,692,289 outstanding shares (excluding treasury stock) and 601,227 treasury shares. Annonce • Sep 27
Gunze Limited to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Nov 06, 2024 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Nov 06, 2024 Annonce • Aug 28
Gunze Limited Launches Purewrap Fs35NB & Fs40NB Thin Coextruded Blown Film for Vacuum Packaging of Boilable That Can Reduce Plastic Use by 50% Gunze Limited announced that the renewal of its ultra-thin and tough blown film, Purewrap, specifically designed for food products requiring transportation in frozen environments. The company introduced two new types, FS35NB and FS40NB, which are compatible for boiling applications. These innovative additions retain the ultra-thin and tough characteristics that have defined the series to date, making them more convenient for use in central kitchens and other food processing facilities. They also contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing the use of plastic by approximately 50%. The movement toward a plastic-free society is gaining momentum not only in Japan, but around the world. With the implementation of the "Plastic Resource Circulation Act" in Japan in April 2022, all stakeholders are now required to reduce plastic use and promote resource recycling throughout the entire lifecycle of plastic products, from design to waste disposal. In particular, perishable seafood, livestock products, and their processed forms are often transported in freezing environments, where reducing plastic use is challenging due to concerns about strength loss from volume reduction. In January 2022, Gunze introduced Purewrap FS35N and FS40N, which offer more than twice the puncture strength of conventional non-oriented nylon-polyethylene 70 µm films while reducing plastic use by approximately 50%. This film type has been widely adopted by customers. It has now been renewed as a boilable type, expanding its applicability to a wider range of foods processed in central kitchens for commercial prepared foods and restaurants. The company recommends the product for food applications that require transportation in frozen environments and processing in central kitchens. Purewrap is a coextruded blown film with simultaneous biaxial orientation that provides exceptional puncture resistance for contents and impact resistance for external surfaces. The company's unique raw material compounding, multilayer construction and orientation technologies have made this nylon-polyethylene film highly flexible with superior puncture resistance, ideal for refrigerated transport. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 14
Now 22% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at JP¥5,320. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,346, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 7.7%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 8.2% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 55% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Aug 04
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥95.92 (vs JP¥93.03 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥95.92 (up from JP¥93.03 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥33.4b (up 5.3% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.60b (flat on 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 5.0% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year. Annonce • Jul 11
Gunze Limited Launches "GEOPLAS HCX1 23 Micron", the Lightest Hybrid Shrink Film in Japan Gunze Limited announced that it has launched "GEOPLAS HCX1 23 Micron", the lightest hybrid shrink film in Japan, which has now been adopted for use in PET bottled beverages sold by DyDo DRINCO. Gunze continues to promote the use of Japan's lightest shrink film in the market and to increase the proportion of recycled materials, aiming to realize a recycling-oriented society by reducing the amount of plastic used and effectively utilizing resources. This will be used for the production of "Luxury fragrance iced black tea" in July. There are also plans to expand this to "Luxury fragrance iced green tea". The product is a polystyrene/polyethylene terephthalate multilayer product using unique multilayer oriented film technology. It is widely used worldwide as shrink labels for PET bottled beverages, food, cosmetics, home & personal care products and other products. The product has both polystyrene and polyethylene terephthalate advantages such as excellent shrink appearance, perforation suitability, heat resistance, content resistance and stiffness. Product features: Label weight: Lightest weight shrink film for automatic sleeve applicators in Japan (Approximately 10% lighter than the lightest conventional film). Shrinkability: Good shrinkability. Maximum shrink of 70%, suitable for complex-shaped bottles. Perforability: Good perforability and Easy to peel along the perforation line. Use of recycled materials: Approximately 1% of the printing waste generated by converters is recycled, and at least 5% of the raw materials are chemically recycled using the mass balance method. Phase 1 In-house post-industrial recycling: Gunze has transformed its Moriyama Plant, which manufactures shrink film and other products, into a zero-emission plant that produces no plastic waste. The Moriyama Plant is expected to achieve zero waste by the end of FY2024. Phase 2: Off-site post-industrial recycling. The GEOPLAS® HCX1 now being offered contains film made from collected post-printing waste generated by sister converting company, Gunze Packaging Systems. And the company intends to expand this initiative to other manufacturing facilities such as converters and PET bottled beverages in the near future. Phase 3 Post-Consumer Recycling: The company will contribute to a resource-recycling society by collecting post-consumer labels from the market and using them as raw materials for film production. The company will gradually increase the recycling rate, aiming to achieve 100% recycling rate by 2030. The company will also expand thick product line and promote its development in the food and toiletries markets. Price Target Changed • Jun 08
Price target increased by 9.5% to JP¥6,517 Up from JP¥5,950, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 14% above last closing price of JP¥5,700. Stock is up 29% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥416 for next year compared to JP¥301 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 08
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥377 to JP¥416. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥140.6b. Net income forecast to grow 36% next year vs 7.9% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥5,950 to JP¥6,517. Share price rose 6.3% to JP¥5,700 over the past week. Annonce • Jun 02
Gunze Limited to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Aug 02, 2024 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Aug 02, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • May 30
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥338 to JP¥377. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥141.9b. Net income forecast to grow 25% next year vs 7.9% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥5,650 to JP¥5,950. Share price was steady at JP¥5,180 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 29
Price target increased by 10% to JP¥5,950 Up from JP¥5,400, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of JP¥5,180. Stock is up 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥377 for next year compared to JP¥301 last year. Reported Earnings • May 18
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥301 (up from JP¥261 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥132.9b (down 2.3% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥5.11b (up 14% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 3.8% (up from 3.3% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 7.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Price Target Changed • Mar 26
Price target increased by 13% to JP¥6,075 Up from JP¥5,400, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 8.3% above last closing price of JP¥5,610. Stock is up 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥281 for next year compared to JP¥261 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥150 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 26 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 54% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.7%). New Risk • Feb 07
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 25% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Annonce • Dec 28
Gunze Limited to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 06, 2024 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 06, 2024 Annonce • Dec 13
Gunze Limited Launches Environmentally Friendly "GEOPLAS™ HCX1", the Lightest Shrink Film for Automatic Sleeve Applicators Gunze Limited announced that the company will launch an eco-friendly "GEOPLAS™ HCX1", the lightest shrink film for automatic sleeve applicators in December 2023. The product is a polystyrene/polyethylene terephthalate multi-layered product that uses 5% of chemical recycled raw materials with the mass balance approach. The new product will first be launched in Japan and then expanded to the U.S., China and ASEAN markets. The product to be launched this time is the second product after company's eco-friendly grade GEOPLAS™ HCT3. The global shift away from plastic is gaining momentum and bringing tangible changes to immediate surroundings. From the introduction of paper straws in restaurants to the emergence of pay-per-use plastic bags, the movement is reshaping daily experiences. Last April, the enactment of the Law on the “Law for Recycling Plastic Materials” marked a pivotal moment, amplifying the urgency of addressing Japan's plastic waste crisis, tackling climate change, and navigating stricter regulations on cross-border waste imports. Under these pressing challenges, companies are now mandated to align their plastic product designs. At the same time, consumers are being given a key role by being urged to reduce the release of plastic waste, ensure careful waste separation, and choose certified plastic products. This concerted effort underscores a shared commitment to address the multifaceted problems caused by plastic consumption and to lead Japan toward a sustainable and responsible future. In response to the above background, Gunze has started to develop a hybrid shrink film that realizes the lightest weight shrink label. This film is not only lightweight, but also easy to use in the shrink label market, and is both environmentally friendly and excellent in function. Following HCX1 and HCT3, which use recycled raw materials, the company aims to increase the use of recycled raw materials to 50% by 2024 and to supply products made from 100% recycled raw materials by 2030 through the use of these technologies. The product is a polystyrene/polyethylene terephthalate multi-layered product using company's unique multilayer oriented film technology. It is widely used globally as shrink labels for PET bottled beverages, foods, cosmetics, home & personal care products and other products. The product has both polystyrene and polyethylene terephthalate benefits such as excellent shrink appearance, perforation suitability, heat resistance, content resistance and stiffness. Product outline: Product name: GEOPLAS™ HCX1; Lineup: Thickness 23 micron (Can be used with automatic shrink sleeve label application machines); Applications: Labels for beverages, foods, groceries, home & personal care products; Sales plan: Aim to sell 500MT in the first year (FY2024); Sales base: Japan, USA, Vietnam, China; Features: (1) Weight: Lightest weight shrink film for automatic sleeve applicators. (2) Shrinkability: Good shrinkability. Maximum shrink of 70%, suitable for complex-shaped bottles. (3) Perforability: Good perforability and Easy to peel along the perforation line. (4) Use of recycled materials: At least 5% of materials are chemically recycled using the mass balance method. The mass balancing approach is when a raw material with certain features (e.g., chemical recycled raw material) is mixed with a raw material that does not have certain features (e.g., petroleum-derived raw material) during processing and distribution from raw materials to products. It distributes the raw material with specific features to a part of the product according to the input amount of the raw materials with the specific features. The mass balance approach-based products require a third-party certification to avoid arbitrary decisions by companies. Gunze has already received ISCC certification in July 2023. Reported Earnings • Nov 04
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥62.78 (up from JP¥59.88 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥33.4b (down 5.7% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.07b (up 3.5% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.2% (up from 2.9% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 7.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Annonce • Nov 03
Gunze Limited (TSE:3002) announces an Equity Buyback for 430,000 shares, representing 2.52% for ¥2,000 million. Gunze Limited (TSE:3002) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 430,000 shares, representing 2.52% of its issued share capital, for total worth of ¥2,000 million worth of its shares. The purpose of the program is to carry out flexible capital policy based on the financial strategy of the medium-term management plan "VISION 2030 stage 1." The program is valid till March 22, 2024. As of September 30, 2023, the company has 17,066,082 shares in issue and 227,434 shares in treasury. Annonce • Aug 30
Gunze Limited to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 02, 2023 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 02, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 06
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥93.03 (vs JP¥67.79 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥93.03 (up from JP¥67.79 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥31.7b (flat on 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.59b (up 35% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.0% (up from 3.7% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 6% per year. Price Target Changed • Jun 14
Price target increased by 14% to JP¥5,267 Up from JP¥4,617, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 17% above last closing price of JP¥4,500. Stock is up 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥285 for next year compared to JP¥261 last year. Annonce • May 28
Gunze Limited to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 04, 2023 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 04, 2023 Price Target Changed • May 26
Price target increased by 8.5% to JP¥4,917 Up from JP¥4,533, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 10.0% above last closing price of JP¥4,470. Stock is up 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥274 for next year compared to JP¥261 last year. Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥261 (up from JP¥169 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥136.0b (up 9.4% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥4.50b (up 53% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.3% (up from 2.4% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 22%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • May 12
Gunze Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 23, 2023 Gunze Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 23, 2023. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥145 per share at 3.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 27 June 2023. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 3.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.9%). Reported Earnings • Feb 04
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥96.58 (up from JP¥92.29 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥36.5b (up 9.4% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.67b (up 4.3% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.6% (down from 4.8% in 3Q 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.2% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Annonce • Nov 27
Gunze Limited to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Feb 03, 2023 Gunze Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Feb 03, 2023 Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥59.88 (down from JP¥286 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥35.5b (up 14% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.04b (down 79% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 16% in 2Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 20%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Rie Kida was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 04
Second quarter 2023 earnings released Second quarter 2023 results: Net income: (down JP¥4.98b from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥67.78 (vs JP¥1.31 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥67.78 (up from JP¥1.31 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥31.9b (up 13% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.17b (up JP¥1.15b from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.7% (up from 0.1% in 1Q 2022). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.6%, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jun 29
Price target decreased to JP¥4,467 Down from JP¥4,950, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of JP¥3,740. Stock is down 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥216 for next year compared to JP¥169 last year. Reported Earnings • May 17
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥169 (up from JP¥121 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥124.3b (flat on FY 2021). Net income: JP¥2.94b (up 37% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 2.4% (up from 1.7% in FY 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 49%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.5%, compared to a 9.2% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Rie Kida was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥140 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 28 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.0%). Price Target Changed • Feb 23
Price target decreased to JP¥4,950 Down from JP¥5,667, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 30% above last closing price of JP¥3,820. Stock is up 3.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥329 for next year compared to JP¥121 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 07
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥92.28 (down from JP¥107 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥33.4b (down 3.5% from 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥1.60b (down 16% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 5.5% in 3Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 1.8%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 6.4%, compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥286 (vs JP¥28.65 in 2Q 2021) The company reported a decent second quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥31.1b (down 3.9% from 2Q 2021). Net income: JP¥4.98b (up JP¥4.47b from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 16% (up from 1.6% in 2Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year. Reported Earnings • Aug 05
First quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS JP¥1.31 (vs JP¥16.17 loss in 1Q 2021) The company reported a strong first quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: JP¥28.3b (up 10% from 1Q 2021). Net income: JP¥23.0m (up JP¥310.0m from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 0.1% (up from net loss in 1Q 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 16% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Aug 01
Price target increased to JP¥5,625 Up from JP¥5,167, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of JP¥4,730. Stock is up 23% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 02
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from JP¥136.4b to JP¥134.9b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥271 to JP¥305. Net income forecast to grow 152% next year vs 4.3% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥5,167 to JP¥5,367. Share price was steady at JP¥4,450 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from JP¥195 to JP¥271. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥136.4b. Net income forecast to grow 124% next year vs 20% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥4,800 to JP¥5,167. Share price rose 5.8% to JP¥4,315 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 17
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS JP¥121 (vs JP¥245 in FY 2020) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: JP¥123.6b (down 12% from FY 2020). Net income: JP¥2.15b (down 51% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 1.7% (down from 3.1% in FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥115 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2021. Payment date: 26 June 2021. Trailing yield: 2.8%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (2.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.9%). Price Target Changed • Mar 23
Price target increased to JP¥4,650 Up from JP¥4,325, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 15% above last closing price of JP¥4,050. Stock is up 11% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 05
New 90-day high: JP¥3,915 The company is up 9.0% from its price of JP¥3,580 on 04 December 2020. The Japanese market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Luxury industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is JP¥1,770 per share.