Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 15
Now 29% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.6% to €6.61. The fair value is estimated to be €9.25, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.8% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Mar 12
Full year 2025 earnings released Full year 2025 results: Revenue: €976.5m (down 5.7% from FY 2024). Net loss: €49.4m (loss narrowed 27% from FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. New Risk • Nov 19
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Italian stocks, typically moving 7.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Price Target Changed • Nov 05
Price target increased by 15% to €6.18 Up from €5.39, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 15% below last closing price of €7.29. Stock is up 21% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.28 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.41 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 05
Now 29% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 59% to €7.29. The fair value is estimated to be €5.63, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.0% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to grow by 1.8% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 87% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 26
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to €0.31 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.353 to -€0.311 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €978.8m. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 17% next year. Consensus price target up from €4.95 to €5.30. Share price rose 16% to €7.11 over the past week. New Risk • Oct 03
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 5.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 03
Now 27% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 16% to €5.98. The fair value is estimated to be €4.69, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.0% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.3% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 81% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 30
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -€0.328 to -€0.366 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at €967.4m. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 13% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €5.00. Share price was steady at €5.35 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 26% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -€0.285 to -€0.36 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at €942.1m. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 14% next year. Consensus price target down from €4.96 to €4.86. Share price rose 3.9% to €4.69 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 19
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 20% to €4.66. The fair value is estimated to be €3.81, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.9% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to decline by 9.0% in a year. Earnings are forecast to decline by 6.2% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -€0.337 to -€0.39 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at €942.6m. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 16% next year. Consensus price target down from €5.05 to €4.91. Share price was steady at €4.51 over the past week. New Risk • Aug 05
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 11% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 474% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €979.1m to €945.7m. Losses expected to increase from €0.044 per share to €0.25. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 15% next year. Consensus price target down from €5.26 to €5.09. Share price fell 8.2% to €4.91 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 124% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -€0.016 to -€0.036 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at €979.1m. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 24% next year. Consensus price target of €5.26 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 5.3% to €5.01 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jul 15
Price target decreased by 7.9% to €5.31 Down from €5.77, the current price target is an average from 14 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €5.11. Stock is down 40% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.036 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.41 last year. Annonce • Mar 17
Salvatore Ferragamo S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 16, 2025 Salvatore Ferragamo S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 16, 2025, at 09:30 W. Europe Standard Time. New Risk • Mar 17
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Italian stocks, typically moving 8.0% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Mar 09
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €1.04b (down 11% from FY 2023). Net loss: €68.1m (down 361% from profit in FY 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.2% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 09
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 6.6% to €6.32. The fair value is estimated to be €8.00, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 27
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to €0.17 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.194 to -€0.167 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €1.03b. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 21% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €6.64. Share price rose 4.6% to €7.87 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -€0.186 to -€0.209 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at €1.03b. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 18% next year. Consensus price target of €6.61 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 5.4% to €7.88 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 56% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -€0.115 to -€0.18 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at €1.03b. Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 19% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €6.39. Share price was steady at €6.87 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall from profit to €0.027 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. Expected to report loss instead of -€0.027 instead of €0.021 per share profit previously forecast. Revenue forecast unchanged at €1.03b Luxury industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 21% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €6.32. Share price rose 15% to €6.35 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Oct 16
Price target decreased by 7.1% to €6.83 Down from €7.35, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 5.5% above last closing price of €6.48. Stock is down 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.023 for next year compared to €0.16 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 43% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €1.05b to €1.04b. EPS estimate also fell from €0.061 per share to €0.035 per share. Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 39% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €7.07 to €6.57. Share price fell 3.1% to €6.48 over the past week. New Risk • Sep 27
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Italian stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.9% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Sep 23
Price target decreased by 7.4% to €7.58 Down from €8.19, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of €6.08. Stock is down 53% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.061 for next year compared to €0.16 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €0.073 to €0.063 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €1.06b. Net income forecast to grow 113% next year vs 37% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €8.19 to €7.87. Share price fell 3.5% to €6.36 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 09
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 27% to €6.66. The fair value is estimated to be €8.32, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 43%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 37% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 09
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 31% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €1.08b to €1.06b. EPS estimate also fell from €0.113 per share to €0.077 per share. Net income forecast to grow 156% next year vs 32% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €9.01 to €8.31. Share price fell 6.1% to €7.50 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 08
Price target decreased by 7.8% to €8.31 Down from €9.01, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 10% above last closing price of €7.55. Stock is down 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.077 for next year compared to €0.16 last year. Price Target Changed • Jul 15
Price target decreased by 8.2% to €9.01 Down from €9.81, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €8.85. Stock is down 40% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.11 for next year compared to €0.16 last year. Board Change • May 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Non Executive Director Laura Donnini was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Upcoming Dividend • May 13
Upcoming dividend of €0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 20 May 2024. Payment date: 22 May 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 64% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 1.0%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.7%). Price Target Changed • Apr 12
Price target decreased by 7.7% to €10.26 Down from €11.11, the current price target is an average from 16 analysts. New target price is 7.1% above last closing price of €9.58. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.16 for next year compared to €0.16 last year. New Risk • Apr 10
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 22% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.3% net profit margin). Declared Dividend • Mar 11
Dividend reduced to €0.10 Dividend of €0.10 is 64% lower than last year. Ex-date: 20th May 2024 Payment date: 22nd May 2024 Dividend yield will be 0.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 1.8%. Payout Ratios Payout ratio: 152%. Cash payout ratio: 36%. Reported Earnings • Mar 10
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €1.16b (down 7.6% from FY 2022). Net income: €26.1m (down 63% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.3% (down from 5.6% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.2% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Annonce • Dec 27
Salvatore Ferragamo S.p.A. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 06, 2024 Salvatore Ferragamo S.p.A. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Mar 06, 2024 New Risk • Aug 07
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 2.5% Last year net profit margin: 8.9% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (152% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.5% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 06
First half 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2023 results: Revenue: €600.1m (down 4.8% from 1H 2022). Net income: €22.5m (down 64% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 3.7% (down from 9.8% in 1H 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.6% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 106% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • May 15
Upcoming dividend of €0.28 per share at 1.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 May 2023. Payment date: 24 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 67% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.8%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Reported Earnings • Mar 04
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.42 (vs €0.50 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: €0.42 (down from €0.50 in FY 2021). Revenue: €1.25b (up 10% from FY 2021). Net income: €69.6m (down 17% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 5.6% (down from 7.4% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.1% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 16
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from €0.41 to €0.47. Revenue forecast steady at €1.28b. Net income forecast to shrink 48% next year vs 6.3% growth forecast for Luxury industry in Italy . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €14.94. Share price rose 4.7% to €16.27 over the past week. Board Change • Nov 16
High number of new directors There are 7 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. CEO & Director Marco Gobbetti was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.045 (vs €0.041 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.045 (up from €0.041 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: €290.4m (up 11% from 3Q 2021). Net income: €7.41m (up 8.6% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.6% (in line with 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.8% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Sep 07
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.29 (vs €0.20 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.29 (up from €0.20 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: €340.8m (up 22% from 2Q 2021). Net income: €47.9m (up 50% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 14% (up from 11% in 2Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.5% growth forecast for the Luxury industry in Italy. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings.