Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2022 results: EPS: €0.56. Revenue: €10.2b (up 26% from 1Q 2021). Net income: €381.0m (up 24% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.7% (down from 3.8% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 26% compared to a 14% growth forecast for the industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 1% per year. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to €21.80 Up from €19.56, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €20.90. Stock is up 43% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.20 for next year compared to €2.20 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 20
Upcoming dividend of €1.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 April 2022. Payment date: 29 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 46% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.6%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (4.8%). In line with average of industry peers (5.0%). Reported Earnings • Feb 18
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €32.5b (down 6.5% from FY 2020). Net income: €1.55b (up 19% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 4.8% (up from 3.8% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.1%, compared to a 81% growth forecast for the insurance industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year. Price Target Changed • Nov 25
Price target increased to €21.37 Up from €19.56, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €21.60. Stock is up 60% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.08 for next year compared to €1.91 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 22
Price target increased to €20.42 Up from €18.36, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 5.3% below last closing price of €21.57. Stock is up 63% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.07 for next year compared to €1.91 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 20
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.50 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €462.6m (down 93% from 3Q 2020). Net income: €341.3m (up 10% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 74% (up from 4.8% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year. Price Target Changed • Oct 29
Price target increased to €20.11 Up from €18.36, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 7.2% below last closing price of €21.66. Stock is up 124% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.01 for next year compared to €1.91 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 28
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 48% share price gain to €21.70, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Insurance industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 27% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €29.90 per share. Reported Earnings • Aug 02
Second quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a solid second quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €8.20b (up 47% from 2Q 2020). Net income: €382.0m (up 24% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 4.7% (down from 5.5% in 2Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.45 The company reported a solid first quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €8.08b (up 16% from 1Q 2020). Net income: €308.0m (up 3.0% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 4.3% in 1Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Executive Departure • Apr 19
Chief Executive Officer Antoine Lissowski has left the company On the 16th of April, Antoine Lissowski's tenure as Chief Executive Officer of the company ended after 2.6 years in the role. As of December 2020, Antoine personally held only 2.00k shares (€26k worth at the time). A total of 4 executives have left over the last 12 months. Under Antoine's leadership, the company delivered a total shareholder return of -12%. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 14
Upcoming dividend of €1.57 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 April 2021. Payment date: 23 April 2021. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Within top quartile of French dividend payers (4.0%). In line with average of industry peers (4.6%). Reported Earnings • Mar 18
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €1.91 (vs €1.99 in FY 2019) The company reported a soft full year result with weaker earnings and revenues, although profit margins were improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €34.8b (down 28% from FY 2019). Net income: €1.31b (down 4.0% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 3.8% (up from 2.8% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Combined ratio: 82.1% (up from 81.0% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Mar 10
Price target raised to €17.37 Up from €15.79, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. The new target price is 5.8% above the current share price of €16.42. As of last close, the stock is up 47% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 15
New 90-day high: €13.92 The company is up 12% from its price of €12.46 on 17 November 2020. The French market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Insurance industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €22.96 per share. Price Target Changed • Jan 08
Price target raised to €15.79 Up from €14.75, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. The new target price is 15% above the current share price of €13.70. As of last close, the stock is down 21% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 06
New 90-day high: €13.88 The company is up 27% from its price of €10.92 on 08 October 2020. The French market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Insurance industry, which is up 21% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €23.79 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 25
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS €0.45 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved revenues, although earnings and profit margins were weaker. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: €6.48b (up €5.41b from 3Q 2019). Net income: €310.0m (down 5.8% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 31% in 3Q 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 10
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 19% share price gain to €11.72, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 6.1x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 5.2x. This compares to an average P/E of 14x in the Insurance industry in France. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 35%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 27
New 90-day low: €9.93 The company is down 5.0% from its price of €10.48 on 29 July 2020. The French market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Insurance industry, which is down 14% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €17.27 per share. 