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Alteryx Crecimiento futuro
Future controles de criterios 2/6
Se prevé que los beneficios de Alteryx disminuyan en un 2.9% al año, mientras que se espera que sus ingresos anuales crezcan en un 10.3% al año. Se prevé que el BPA crezca en un 7.2% por año. Se espera que la rentabilidad financiera sea de 32.8% en 3 años.
Información clave
-2.9%
Tasa de crecimiento de los beneficios
7.16%
Tasa de crecimiento del BPA
| Crecimiento de los beneficios de Software | 19.8% |
| Tasa de crecimiento de los ingresos | 10.3% |
| Rentabilidad financiera futura | 32.80% |
| Cobertura de analistas | Good |
| Última actualización | 15 Mar 2024 |
Actualizaciones recientes sobre el crecimiento futuro
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Dec 17
Alteryx: This Is A Steal (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Alteryx is a platform that simplifies data analytics and allows organizations to make data-driven decisions without advanced technical skills. The company has improved its profitability significantly, making it attractively priced at 18x forward non-GAAP operating margins. Alteryx's near-term prospects are promising, with solid performance in Q3 and a focus on executive-facing enterprise sales. However, macroeconomic conditions remain challenging. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArtículo de análisis • Dec 07
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Alteryx, Inc. (NYSE:AYX)
Key Insights Alteryx's estimated fair value is US$49.83 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price...Seeking Alpha • Nov 08
Alteryx: Optimism Returning At Last
Summary Alteryx, a data prep and integration software company, enjoyed a ~20% post-Q3 earnings rally, helping to offset sharp YTD declines. The company's strong position in automation, data-driven decision-making, and analytics, along with its broad applicability across industries, are all core pieces of its bullish story. It is also moving upmarket into enterprise clients, while sales rep productivity is also improving. Valuation is very cheap at ~3x FY24 revenue. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArtículo de análisis • Oct 11
Alteryx (NYSE:AYX) Is Carrying A Fair Bit Of Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...Seeking Alpha • Oct 02
Alteryx: Why It's Not A Core Portfolio Holding
Summary Alteryx's Q2 2023 results were below expectations and the management revised their full year guidance downwards, leading to a decline in stock price. The company's business model does not look scalable. There have been rumors of Alteryx exploring a potential sale, but even in the case of M&A, the company may not generate significant value for shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 31
Alteryx: No Sign Of A Turnaround (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Alteryx shows weakness in Q2 FY12/2023 and lowered FY company guidance, indicating a lack of business turnaround. The company is struggling to attract new customers and convert new accounts due to increased competition and evolving market demands. Credit risk remains high, with doubts about the company's ability to pay back its debt and limited options for raising cash. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArtículo de análisis • Aug 15
Alteryx, Inc.'s (NYSE:AYX) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 67% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Alteryx fair value estimate is US$51.03 Alteryx's US$30.60...Seeking Alpha • Aug 08
Alteryx: Be Patient Until This Company Unlocks Its Value
Summary Alteryx, a data integration company, has seen its share price drop tremendously year to date on lower guidance. The company's pivot to a subscription model, large total addressable market, and best-in-class gross margins make it an attractive long-term investment. Short-term challenges are largely macro driven, and the company has identified sales processes to improve upon. A six-point boost to pro forma operating margins embedded in the company's FY23 guidance helps to offset revenue weakness. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArtículo de análisis • Jul 07
We Think Alteryx (NYSE:AYX) Has A Fair Chunk Of Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Seeking Alpha • Jun 29
Alteryx: Be Cautious On A Leverage Company With Deteriorating Fundamentals
Summary Alteryx's discounted valuation could be a value trap, including a significant revenue growth slowdown, margin contraction, and worsening FCF profile. Despite some expected improvements in non-GAAP operating margin and earnings due to cost optimization in the current fiscal year, sustaining a consistent expansion remains uncertain. AYX's high leverage ratio of 8.1x net debt/non-GAAP EBITDA TTM is a red flag, especially in the late stage of the economic cycle. While it's possible that the company is focused on larger customer deals, the total customer count has declined for the first time in its history in the last quarter. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 14
Alteryx: I'm Not Buying Due To High Uncertainty
Summary Alteryx has a solid revenue growth profile, but the company still did not achieve sustainably positive free cash flow. The stock looks attractively valued, but the level of uncertainty regarding underlying assumptions is very high. I add the stock to my short-list, but before I invest, I want to examine how the next few quarters will develop. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 26
Alteryx: Trying To Board The AI Hype Train
Summary Over the past few years Alteryx has built out an end-to-end machine learning platform and developed a cloud solution. Generative AI could be supportive of Alteryx’s focus on citizen data scientists, but the same capabilities are available to all vendors. Microsoft is an enormous threat to Alteryx, and even if Alteryx continues to be successful, Microsoft will likely cap the company’s success at a relatively modest level. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaArtículo de análisis • May 05
It's Down 38% But Alteryx, Inc. (NYSE:AYX) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks
The Alteryx, Inc. ( NYSE:AYX ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 38...Artículo de análisis • Apr 12
An Intrinsic Calculation For Alteryx, Inc. (NYSE:AYX) Suggests It's 20% Undervalued
Key Insights Alteryx's estimated fair value is US$66.21 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price...Seeking Alpha • Feb 18
Alteryx: A Plan Coming Together
Summary Alteryx Q4 earnings were a significant upside with better-than-expected results for revenues, ARR and non-GAAP operating profits. The company is benefiting from a significant set of initiatives, including a new go-to-market motion and a cloud analytics platform. The company's ELA burst mode consumption model is now starting to accelerate growth and to expand the usage of Alteryx across the company's enterprise customers. Alteryx shares have achieved strong performance so far in 2023, but the combination of rising growth expectations coupled with a noticeable turn to profitability has kept valuation metrics at attractive levels. Alteryx guidance has been self-styled by the company's CFO as more conservative than usual with visibility above historic levels as well. Alteryx - The pieces are all falling into place I have written a lot about Alteryx on SA and to my subscribers over the years. It has been more than a year since I last wrote an article on SA about Alteryx and the early results of its go-to-market transition. The shares are actually up a bit since that time, mainly a function of the 40% share price decline seen in 2021, but also because somewhat quietly, the company has been stringing together quarters of positive operating results. Alteryx, ins some ways, is a poster child for why many investors have chosen to make and retain outsize IT commitments in their portfolios. Revenues have grown by about 7X + since I first wrote about the company, gross margins percent has risen, and the company is profitable on a non-GAAP basis and is forecasting a significant level of non-GAAP profits in 2023. I first discovered the company through some recommendations on the part of happy sales people and customers. Subsequently the company lost its way and needed a product and go to market refresh. Sometimes readers express skepticism about excessive executive compensation. There are elements of that cavil which are unassailable. But looking at the change in leadership at this company, and what has happened since the new team has focused sales focus on users who can buy more and get the most value from the company suggests that stockholders are getting what they have been paying for. The company reported a strong quarter in terms of both revenue and cost metrics, although not quite as strong as the headline numbers might suggest. But unlike most other software companies, Alteryx raised guidance for both revenues and earnings and did so despite taking a far more conservative view of the pipeline and sales funnel than has usually been the case. While the shares did appreciate last week, rising by 13% in the wake of the earnings release, and the shares are up by about 35% so far in 2023, they are very far from prior highs-in fact the shares were 10% higher than they are now as recently as last September and they are down by even more than that from their 2022 high which was set in April. The shares actually hit a high point more than 3X current levels back in the summer of 2020 at the peak of the post-Covid market rally. I am the last to suggest that changes from past highs are particularly relevant in assessing a reasonable current valuation. The summer of 2020 seems like an eon ago in terms of market sentiment and of course economic policy is upside down compared to what it was then. But the fact is that Alteryx is a significantly stronger company now then it was 2.5 years ago-not just in terms of revenue, but in the ARR metric that more closely identifies with the sales progress of the company. And of course, the company has made some noticeable strides in improving sales productivity that are starting to show up in many cost ratios that I like to track. Of even more interest in this environment is the visibility the company has in terms of backlog, as well as other sales tailwinds that are different than those of other enterprise software companies. And finally, while in no traditional sense is Alteryx an "AI" company with a neural network and a sophisticated generative model, this company is benefitting by industry trends in which AI technology are fostering lots of application development in spaces that are addressed by the newest components of the Alteryx offering. I should note that Alteryx has used and will use stock based compensation. Last quarter stock based compensation was about 21% of revenues. This is down from prior periods, but in part the ratio declined because the company's quarterly revenues grew by more than 73% as reported last quarter. I prefer to account for SBC by using dilution as portrayed by the increase in outstanding shares in analyzing relative valuation. The outstanding share count for Alteryx had increased by a bit more than 2.5% last year. The outstanding share count will rise more significantly in 2023 because it will now be based on 9 million additional shares that will be counted from conversion of the outstanding convertible debt as is the GAAP convention when a company reaches profitability, even on a non-GAAP basis. Of course doing so would wipe out most of the debt on the company's balance sheet which had been 15% or so of the company's enterprise value. In reality, the share conversion won't happen; the conversion price is greater than $189/share, but the accounting convention calls for using higher weighted average shares and EPS estimates and other valuation calculations by most analysts will be based on the 78 million shares on which the company's forecast is based. Market trends come and go. Last week the market sustained a risk-off trend and declined. Until today, which is Thursday February 16, 2023, the market has been in a risk-on mode. Today, investors are concerned about a "too hot" PPI with notable revisions of prior months as well as a failure of 1st time unemployment claims to climb above levels indicating a tight labor market. The rather startling decline of the Philly Fed index seemingly has not been a factor in investor perceptions of inflation and future Fed interest rate decisions, nor has the continued decline home construction metrics. I feel I need to comment about economic macros because they influence share prices, and the price of Alteryx shares in particular, more than the company's improvement in operational performance over the short term. Alteryx shares have done much better than average so far in 2023. But they are unlikely to continue to rally until market sentiment with regards to future inflation and interest rate trends becomes sustainably positive in the eyes of market participants. This article is a purchase recommendation for Alteryx shares. It is NOT a trading call, and has nothing to do with my view of economic macros. I will outline in the balance of the article the case for owning Alteryx shares but I am as aware as anyone that in the short term the shares will be governed by market sentiment and perceptions of risks of inflation and interest rate increases. Why is Alteryx doing better - Is it sustainable? Alteryx has been a case of a founder led company in which the founder wound up outstaying his welcome, so to speak. The company was founded to bring analytics, real analytics as opposed to visualization, to the desktops of millions of "citizen data scientists." It was quite successful in doing so and growth just before the advent of the pandemic was nothing short of spectacular, but things started to go wrong as the impact of Covid-19 was felt in the overall economy. The basic causes were a flawed go-to-market strategy, and a product roadmap that was slow to embrace the cloud. It didn't help that some users considered investment in a corporate analytics strategy to be a postponable investment regardless of the consequences. The company brought in a new CEO, Mark Anderson in the fall of 2020 to take over from the retiring founder. In turn, Mr. Anderson brought in a new CRO, Paula Hansen and a new CTO, Suresh Vittal as the Chief Product Officer. The CFO, Kevin Rubin, has remained throughout the course of the transition and continues in his role. One of the cardinal rules of building a large software company is to focus on the enterprise. Just about all software companies figure out that lesson. It took a new CRO at Alteryx to make that pivot, and it took a few quarters before the personnel necessary to implement the strategy could be brought into the company. This led to quarters with lots of salesforce churn that in turn hampered sales growth. Once the personnel were on the ground, so to speak, the company needed to focus on providing enterprise customers with attractive options to acquire more Alteryx seats in a cost effective fashion. Like many enterprise software companies, Alteryx has a land and expand model. It needed to make the expand part of the strategy attractive to enterprise users, and it has done so by offering Enterprise License Agreements. It may seem a simple undertaking, but the advent of ELAs at Alteryx has started to have a substantial impact on the company's business with the opportunity for acceleration. The company had resisted a product strategy of "cloudifying" its products. Its desktop users were happy with the Alteryx offering-very happy, indeed, as I had learned. But to sell large deals in the enterprise, it was necessary to have an offering that CIOs and Chief Data Officers could embrace, and that meant developing cloud based technology. The company has been releasing cloud versions of its apps, particularly aimed at developers, and some of those new offerings are now starting to impact revenue growth. 2023 is likely to be a rough year for enterprise software sales despite some notable exceptions. Alteryx has certainly had its share of miscues in terms of sales performance along the way during its transition. But as I will try to explain later in this article, the specific opportunities in terms of ELA growth, renewals and new product adoption that the company has should provide it with a significant opportunity to beat the rather conservative guidance the company provided. Consensus revenue growth forecasts for 2023 and 2023 which mainly reflect revisions post earnings are 15% and 17% respectively. Alteryx, itself, projected revenues for 2023 of about $985 million, or growth of about 16% but on a far more conservative basis that has been usual. The company is also projecting growth in ARR this year of 23%. Over time, ARR growth and revenue growth will be consistent. Given the macro headwinds this year, and the many positive initiatives still in process at this company, I think a 3 year CAGR is most likely to be closer to 30%. The analytics market and the Alteryx competitive position One reason why I think growth estimates for Alteryx dramatically understate the company's potential is the size of the data analytics market. Many estimates such as the one linked here, put the market size at over $30 billion, with a CAGR through the end of the decade of nearly 30%. No doubt these studies have a more expansive definition of analytics that probably over estimates the TAM for Alteryx. When Alteryx first became a public company its projected TAM was only $10 billion. That TAM now seems to have grown to about $65 billion according to the latest Alteryx investor penetration, both because analytics itself is growing rapidly, but also because the company is now addressing what it describes as data engineering as well as the traditional applications of business intelligence, performance management, data integration and data governance. The world is increasing data driven. Enterprises of all kinds want to use data to assist in making decisions and in looking at trends. This has driven users to prioritize analytics investment compared to many other categories of software. That doesn't mean that enterprise analytic deployments aren't getting increased scrutiny in this current environment; Alteryx would achieve much faster growth if the step back in software investment weren't happening across the board. It simply means it is a segment that is outperforming other software segments at this point, and likely on into the foreseeable future. I understand the skepticism of many readers about ROI for an application such as analytics. But there are numerous documented case studies that portray just why users have prioritized analytics applications even in the midst of macro headwinds. There are lots of studies that relate to pricing and inventory optimization for retailers. Sometimes ROI comes from unlikely places such as using analytics to reduce unwarranted treatment variations for a healthcare provider. The optimization of parcel routing is another less obvious need that has been addressed by analytics. Data analytics is a large market and Alteryx has many competitors of different shapes and sizes. While Alteryx is clearly a company that has a significant presence in what is called the ETL (Extract, Transform, Load) space that is not what provides the company its competitive advantages. Many 3rd party analysts focus on ETL in their competitive evaluations. For many years Informatica (INFA) has been the leading vendor in the ETL space and that is probably still the case although there are plenty of other competitors in this market segment. Data visualization is another component of the overall analytics space, and this segment is dominated by Tableau/Salesforce (CRM), Qlik which is owned by Thoma Bravo and Microsoft's (MSFT)Power BI. The data visualization companies do all have ETL solutions, and thus compete with Alteryx in that part of the universe. Alteryx does not compete in the data visualization space. What makes Alteryx unique is that it runs the table, so to speak. Not entirely of course, but in a general sense the company has a broader scope of analytical offerings than most of its competitors. The company offers ETL products, it offers products for data prep and blending, it offers analytics, reporting and geospatial software, it has solutions that encompass data science, machine learning and NLP (Natural language Processing) and what is described as auto insight generation and exploration. I have linked here to a couple of 3rd party market research reports. Many of them show Alteryx competing against companies that really don't address the meat of the company's value proposition. I think the analysis from PeerSpot probably adds the most value in looking at real competitors. That said, even the PeerSpot review has limitations as it includes alternatives that are less likely to be considered by potential Alteryx users. Many Alteryx users also have analytics deployments from SAS Institute, from their own stack vendors such as Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP), and use Power BI from Microsoft. Probably the largest opportunity for Alteryx is to convert its large base of installed Fortune 2000 users into significant clients. Currently, 1/3rd of the company's Fortune 2000 clients have an ARR level of less than $50,000 and 20% of the large enterprises using Alteryx are within 2 years of their initial deployment. Alteryx has been refreshing its product offering at an accelerating pace. Just how much of the new offerings are reflected in the competitive surveys is unclear. It can be difficult to say in any objective sense that Alteryx solutions are better than those of numerous competitors. I do think it is likely that they are easier to use and deploy, and that they offer a more rapid learning curve than alternatives. The company has had no code/low code offerings for years. Alteryx, along with others, offers support for a programming language called Python which makes it easier for non-software professionals to automate analytical tasks. I also believe that the company's broader product footprint has made it significantly easier for Alteryx to present enterprise license to prospective users and to enhance the upsell opportunity. Alteryx doesn't have to have the "best" solution in every component of the analytics landscape; it simply needs to present a road map that enterprise can embrace. Most recently, the company has accelerated its cloud solution introduction. The Alteryx analytics cloud has been one factor that has had the impact of fostering enterprise adoption of the company's overall vision. The platform includes capabilities that allow users to blend data, identify complex patterns, a machine learning capability that help to uncover hidden patterns and relationship which help with forecasting, and an auto insight capability based on AI which identifies trends, nuances and opportunities. It has allowed the company to compete more effectively against SAS Institute (JMP offering), Dovetail (a private Australian company) and Civis a data warehouse and analytics engine. Alteryx and the artificial intelligence paradigm For the past couple of months, many investors, and more than a few commentators in the IT sector have become transfixed by the opportunities presented by Artificial Intelligence. With Microsoft's investment of $10 billion into OpenAI, and its new version of Bing based on the latest ChatGPT models now in a well publicized limited release, the artificial intelligence revolution has reached a flood tide level. This paradigm is being adopted rapidly because it has such a high level of utility for so many different businesses. For example, Doximity (DOCS) is already using ChatGPT to help compose patient notes and to analyze and categorize patient records in order to reduce the time it takes to present pre-authorization paperwork to payers. Investors and rightfully so in my opinion, are very interested in how potential investments fit into this new landscape. Many IT companies are likely to benefit as well as some a bit afield from IT such as NVIDIA (NVDA) and Arista (ANET) So, how does Alteryx fit into this emerging paradigm? First of all Alteryx is not now, and is never likely to offer the advanced neural networks that use what is called generative AI that are the core of the AI technology offered by OpenAI and others in the space such as C3.ai (AI). Obviously a discussion of the potential impact of ChatGPT on Alteryx was one of the focal points of this latest conference call. Rather than me rambling on, it is probably better for the company Chief Product Officer to provide context. On the ChatGPT question, Mark kind of alluded to it, we think it's a massive acceleration, accelerating opportunity for us. What is, imagine a world where a customer could be based on chat on generative AI trained against their libraries of previous workflows in Alteryx, they're synthesizing new workflows and giving creators a lot more time and flexibility in how they embrace our technology. We see great opportunity for generative AI to help augment our capabilities as well. We are already building tools that leverage generative AI technologies to translate between languages like SQL and Python and create huge time savings for the different technology and developer personas so they can start to incorporate massive amounts of SQL code and Python code into their Alteryx platforms. Mark talked about the reimagination. So many of our partners are already starting to reimagine and create vertical apps that bring a combination of generative AI and Alteryx. We think the end goal of democratizing analytics and indeed democratizing AI is very nicely matched between technologies like ChatGPT, generative AI technologies and large language models allow consumers to do and what Alteryx helps consumers do. So we think this is a real one plus one equals three opportunity for us. One of the important considerations for readers when they look at this emergence of AI as a major demand driver relates to how companies can monetize the technology and at what cadence. Inevitably there will be lots of hype, with vendors and analysts looking to portray their favorite company as a specific beneficiary. Some of this kind of speculation will prove to be ill-founded or exaggerated. Just how much AI will lead to broader and more rapid deployment of Alteryx would be more of a guess than anything else at this point. At this point, and in this environment, about all I can say is that the halo effect of AI onto an analytics stack might make it more likely that Alteryx can continue to exceed its quarterly forecasts in meaningful fashion as it has in the last few quarters. But when readers try to determine a likely CAGR for Alteryx over the next several years, some headwind from the AI revolution should be part of the consideration, in my opinion. The Alteryx pivot to enterprise selling-It is still a substantial and underappreciate tailwind Talking about selling models and go-to-market motions can be easily overlooked by investors and yet it is one of the principal requirements for the success of any enterprise software company. Over the last several quarters, besides recruiting enterprise sales people who have a different work cadence than the initial cohorts of Alteryx sales reps, the company has designed different consumption models that are more appealing to enterprise. In particular, the company has started to sell Enterprises License Agreements that make it much easier for the Global 2000 and other large organizations to deploy a significant level of Alteryx without the need to cost justify each and every new workload. In particular, the company introduced what it calls ELA bundles in mid-2021. This offering has shown early signs of success. 2/3rds of ELA that have reached their one-year anniversary were upsold in Q4, and of those that were upsold, the average ARR growth was greater than 50%. The company's pipeline is replete with large ELA opportunities, and despite the macro environment, the sales forecast presented to investors, calls for a growing number of ELA sales, particularly amongst the largest potential customers. In addition, ELAs are tiered based on what is called burst capacity. While, no doubt, some users will attempt to constrain capacity growth that conflicts with the effective utilization of analytic development. Management maintained that it had a high level of visibility when it came to upsells based on increasing requirements for higher burst capacity. The company has been successful in selling these ELAs with burst, and this is driving consumption growth that provides a significant tailwind to revenue growth that is probably not entirely appreciated. The company indicated that it has a meaningfully greater balance of renewals this year when compared to 2022 and earlier. Renewals have been strong; the company has focused on upsells during renewals and the results of doing so are becoming visible. Finally, as I will discuss in the following section, sales force productivity measures are starting to show a significant improvement. The company, as some may recollect, went through a period in which it turned over a high proportion of its original sales force. This in turn led to some underwhelming quarterly sales performance. The sales force retooling has been complete for some time, and the results are now beginning to make a difference in terms of cost ratios. The Alteryx business model: The progress of the work is now starting to be visible Alteryx is in the early stages of reaching sustainable non-GAAP profitability and free cash flow. Last quarter, a fiscal Q4 for the company, Alteryx reported a non-GAAP operating margin of 23%, up from 10% in the prior year. Because of the company's rev. recognition model, Q4s are always far greater than other quarters so sequential comparisons are not useful here.Seeking Alpha • Feb 11
Alteryx: After Massive Q4, This Stock Is Ready To Rally
Summary Alteryx surged 7% after reporting incredibly strong Q4 results that featured ~30% y/y growth in ARR and ~70% y/y growth in revenue. Revenue comps will get tougher as Alteryx laps the maturing of its SaaS transition last year, but profitability will continue to shine as the company is posting double-digit operating margins. Continued high net expansion rates on Alteryx's growing ARR base, plus the company's high gross margins, will continue to feed scalable growth for years to come. Trading at just 6x forward revenue, Alteryx is still quite cheap for its fundamental profile. With this year's rampant rally in tech stocks, the common question that many investors are asking is if it's already too late to dive into the rally. My answer is of course it's not: but stock selection is key here. We're looking for stocks with decent value that are also posting strong results, have meaningful profits or at least a trajectory to breakeven, and won't be overly impacted by tightening macro conditions. Alteryx (AYX) fits the bill perfectly here. This data-integration software company has just reported blazing Q4 results, taking its year-to-date recovery to ~30%. Despite the generous rebound so far, I think Alteryx (still below half of its 2020 all-time highs) has plenty of steam left for a continued rally. Data by YCharts After parsing through Alteryx's latest results, I am even more bullish on the stock now and am keen to add more to my position as Alteryx builds strength. Now, Alteryx of course is not immune to macro headwinds. Backend IT projects like Alteryx, for many companies, are "nice to haves" in the current economy rather than mission-critical, and Alteryx has reported that especially in the fourth quarter rising scrutiny on deals has elongated sales cycles and delayed closings. That being said, when we look to the long term, we continue to see companies elevating the importance of data-driven decision making and using technology to drive as much efficiency as possible. Now largely a SaaS play rather than an expensive license product, Alteryx is perfectly positioned to capture this growing market. Here is my full bull thesis for Alteryx: Digital transformation is already underway - Companies want to use data to drive decisions. Unfortunately, data is sometimes locked in different formats and takes hours of manual work to untangle. Alteryx's technology helps with that process and automates one of the most labor-intensive pieces of adopting a "big data" strategy in the C-suite. Investing in technology like Alteryx may not have been a top priority during the pandemic, but it will become a much hotter-button topic as we look ahead. $113 billion 2025 TAM - Alteryx's current ~$1 billion annual revenue run rate is only a fraction of its estimated current $65 billion TAM, leaving plenty of room for growth. Alteryx additionally expects its TAM to expand to $113 billion by 2025. Truly horizontal software serving a wide variety of use cases across many industries - Alteryx's software is broadly applicable to clients in virtually any industry. An illustrative cross-section of Alteryx's customer base: Netflix (NFLX), Walgreens (WBA), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Chevron (CVX), Wells Fargo (WFC), Visa (V), Marriott Hotels (MAR), and Facebook (META) are all among Alteryx's anchor clients, spanning every industry. Best-in-class gross margins of ~90% are among the highest in the software industry - Virtually every dollar of revenue for Alteryx flows through to the bottom line, justifying the efforts that Alteryx makes on the initial sale. Plans for significant profitability - Already, Alteryx has hit significant pro forma operating profits. Over the long run, it plans to generate pro forma operating margins in the 25-30% range, primarily by achieving economies of scale on sales and marketing. When a company like Alteryx has huge recurring revenue, over time the cost of sales support for that revenue base will eventually dwindle. A quick checkup on Alteryx's valuation: at current share prices near $64, Alteryx trades at a market cap of $4.44 billion. After we net off the $432.0 million of cash and $877.5 million of convertible debt on Alteryx's most recent balance sheet, Alteryx's resulting enterprise value is $4.89 billion. Meanwhile, for the current fiscal year FY23, Alteryx has guided to $980-$990 million in revenue, representing 15-16% y/y growth. Note that Alteryx is coming off a Q1 in which revenue grew >70% y/y. Notably, comps will get tougher in the prior-year period as Alteryx laps the maturation of its SaaS transition (recall that in the early days of switching over from a license to a subscription model, software companies will take a hit to revenue due to deferring over time what used to be large upfront revenue streams). That being said, there is still likely some conservatism in this outlook. Alteryx guidance (Alteryx Q4 earnings deck) Pro forma operating income guidance, which implies a 4.5% margin at the midpoint, is likely substantially undercalled (the company generated a mid-20s margin in Q4). This is also less likely to be impacted by tougher y/y comps. Even taking this projection at face value, Alteryx trades at a valuation of just 5.0x EV/FY23 revenue. The bottom line here: for a company with so much room to scale profitably owing to its huge margins, and with positive tailwinds from its transition to a subscription-based business model with huge ARR growth rates, Alteryx is poised for a further recovery. Q4 download Let's now go through Alteryx's latest Q4 results in greater detail. The Q4 earnings summary is shown below: Alteryx Q4 results (Alteryx Q4 earnings deck) Alteryx's revenue grew at a blazing 73% y/y pace to $301.1 million in revenue, beating Wall Street's expectations of $279.3 million (+63% y/y) by a huge ten-point margin. Revenue growth also largely kept pace with last quarter's 75% y/y growth, though we note that this will likely be the last quarter of "hyper growth" - as can be seen in the chart below, last-year revenue started to climb in a meaningful way in Q2 after the dust settled on Alteryx's SaaS transition. Alteryx also typically has a seasonal Q4 to Q1 drop-off; Q1 guidance this year calls for $198-$202 million in revenue, translating to 25-26% y/y growth (again, I think there is conservatism here). Alteryx top-line metrics (Alteryx Q4 earnings deck) And as seen as well in the chart above, Alteryx achieved significant ARR expansion this quarter, up $76 million on a sequential basis and growing 31% y/y. Alteryx expects year-end ARR to clock in at $1.015-$1.025 billion, higher than its revenue forecast for the year.Artículo de análisis • Feb 08
Would Alteryx (NYSE:AYX) Be Better Off With Less Debt?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Seeking Alpha • Feb 04
Alteryx: Sales-Driven Growth Rebound
Summary Strong growth in recent quarters has been driven by large investments in sales and marketing. Alteryx needs to demonstrate that they can maintain growth while moderating investments. The stock is relatively inexpensive, but it is not clear what the catalyst for a rerating would be. Alteryx (AYX) provides low-code / no-code analytics software that is targeted at knowledge workers. In recent years the company has switched focused to penetrating larger organizations and building out a platform which covers the entire data science lifecycle. The sales initiative has reinvigorated growth, but has come at a significant cost to margins. Alteryx now need to demonstrate they can generate efficient growth, and prove the viability of their cloud transformation. Analytics software is not immune to the same macro headwinds that other segments are facing, but companies continue to implement digital transformation projects to improve decision making and automation. Over 70% of organizations plan on spending more on analytics relative to other software investments in the next 12-18 months. It is also estimated that enterprises have deployed solutions in less than half of the departments that actually need them and less than half of knowledge workers are actively using analytics software. There is a secular opportunity in analytics software, but it is unclear who will be able to capitalize on this, and the near term could be volatile if declining profits force organizations to delay investments. Analytics encompasses a large number of use cases, and as a result the vendor landscape is extremely fragmented. There are a number of companies attempting to develop end-to-end platforms, but there is no one solution that is dominating the market. Alteryx are trying to develop their own universal analytics solution, and hope to be the automation and orchestration layer within the analytics stack of their customers. In support of this, there have been a number of acquisitions and significant internal development over the past few years. These efforts are yet to really impact the business though, as integrations and product releases are still ongoing. Alteryx acquired Trifacta early in 2022, to form the foundation of their cloud infrastructure, and the integration is reportedly going well. Alteryx also acquired Hyper Anna, which is now Alteryx Auto Insights. The integration of this with Alteryx and the Trifacta is also going smoothly. Alteryx auto machine learning is another development, which allows Alteryx general knowledge workers to leverage machine learning models. Alteryx Machine Learning has also now been integrated into the Alteryx Analytics Cloud platform. While these products could provide upside going forward, the vast majority of Alteryx's revenue still comes from their on-premise products (designer and server). Even when Alteryx's cloud solution begins to mature, it is still expected to be incremental to their existing products and customers. This may be disappointing to some investors, but Alteryx have always maintained that their product strategy is dictated by their customers and where their data is. Newer offerings include: Metrics Store - allows customers to create, share and manage metrics App Builder - enables customers to build applications on a cloud-native platform and connect them to Alteryx workflows Location Intelligence Early feedback has been positive and Alteryx expect these solutions to be available in 2023. Sales Driven Rebound Alteryx's recent turnaround appears to be almost solely driven by a shift in sales strategy. In the past, Alteryx focused on selling to users, like business analysts. Over the past 18 months they have transitioned to more of a top-down sales motion, where they are targeting executives and selling the software based on ROI and the ability to drive business transformation. As a result, Alteryx is now also more focused on larger organizations, where they can drive significant expansion after developing a close relationship with the customer. Alteryx are also ramping up their partner business, both with organizations like PwC and KPMG and technology partners like Snowflake (SNOW), Databricks, Google (GOOG) BigQuery and AWS (AMZN). This should help to drive adoption and expansion within larger organizations and improve the productivity of Alteryx's sales organization. Evolving Data Infrastructure Alteryx's poor share price performance over the past few years was driven by a combination of weak financial performance and concern over the company's competitive positioning, as the preferred data infrastructure architecture has continued to evolve. Data science platforms are facing changes related to how data is stored and accessed and how analytics can be scaled to massive data sets in an efficient manner. Extract, Transform and Load (ETL) refers to the process of copying data into a destination system which represents the data differently from the source and has been around since the 1970s. ETL almost exclusively uses relational databases and is best for structured data and small to medium amounts of data. Extract, Load and Transform ((ELT)) is a process where raw data is loaded into the data warehouse and transformations occur on the stored data. ELT is useful for processing large data sets and is better suited to unstructured data. The choice between ETL and ELT largely comes down to the type and volume of data being handled and the type of analysis being performed. ETL is more likely to be used in business intelligence type applications whereas ELT is more likely to be used in more advanced machine learning applications. Alteryx is often used as part of ETL workflows and as ELT becomes more common, it may weaken Alteryx's value proposition. Software is also increasingly moving from on-premise deployments to cloud hosted SaaS, which can be advantageous in terms of cost, accessibility, scalability and performance. Although for some customers it may simply come down to a choice based on where the data currently resides. These changes are part of the reason that Alteryx has developed a cloud hosted solution and built an end-to-end analytics platform. A cloud hosted solution allows Alteryx to maintain relevance as data migrates to the cloud and the more use cases Alteryx can address, the less dependent it is on the ETL paradigm. Despite this, there are still reasons to question the strength of Alteryx's competitive position in the long run. Snowflake has so far been focused on adding functionality to its platform which can attract new workloads. In the future Snowflake may choose to offer their analytics tools, rather than relying on third-party vendors. Snowflake is introducing Snowpark and Snowpark optimized warehouses, which allow users to deploy code directly in Snowflake and increases compute efficiency for machine learning workloads. It would be a small step from there to offering analytics solutions on top of the database directly. Confluent (CFLT) has also introduced Stream Designer, a simple UI for building pipelines using Confluent's data streaming platform. Stream Designer is a drag-and-drop tool that allows less technical users to rapidly build and deploy streaming pipelines. Stream Designer is free, rather than generating revenue directly it aims to accelerate usage of ksql and Kafka, and so far adoption has been strong. Stream Designer may be more targeted at different users and use cases, but at the margin it may impact the use of tools like Alteryx for building data pipelines. The Microsoft Threat Alteryx could also become a victim of Microsoft's (MSFT) massive distribution at some point in time. Microsoft is able crush superior products by bundling software and rolling it out to their massive user base, as seen with Slack and Teams. This is a problem that UiPath (PATH) are also facing. Alteryx's focus on knowledge workers and analytics places it an area where Microsoft likely has the ability and inclination to successfully launch a competing product. Whether this threat eventuates remains to be seen, but analytics software could easily become a feature of a business productivity suite rather than a standalone product in the future. Financial Analysis Alteryx has demonstrated extremely strong revenue growth in 2022, but this has not really been reflected in the share price, indicating that investors are still not buying into the Alteryx story. Similar to other software companies, Alteryx is seeing an elongation of sales cycles, as deals have been receiving more scrutiny. Their salesforce is focused on demonstrating value upfront to keep deals progressing in this environment. Approximately 20% of Alteryx's ARR is denominated in foreign currency, meaning the strong USD has presented a significant direct drag on the business in recent quarters. This headwind is likely to ease going forward. In the fourth quarter of 2022 Alteryx expect ARR growth to be 29% YoY and revenue growth to be 59-62% YoY. It should be kept in mind that Alteryx has benefited from an increase in the amount of revenue being recognized upfront in 2022 versus 2021 (50% compared to 40%). This, along with acquisitions, has boosted growth somewhat, meaning that growth is likely to normalize in 2023. Figure 1: Alteryx Revenue Growth (source: Created by author using data from Alteryx) Alteryx's focus on large customers has led to a rapid increase in revenue per customer and improving expansion rates. Alteryx's renewal rates are holding near multi-year highs, and their net expansion rate was 121% in the third quarter. Alteryx are seeing the strongest ARR growth within their 1 million-plus USD ARR customer cohort, and for Alteryx's large customer cohort, the net expansion rate is 129%. Average deal size increased over 30% YoY with both new logo and expansion wins. Some of this strength may be due to Alteryx's Enterprise Licensing Agreements. These ELAs give customers the ability to burst upwards of 50% more licenses and of the early adopters, over 40% of are already in their burst capacity. Figure 2: Alteryx Revenue per Customer (source: Created by author using data from Alteryx) Customer additions have slowed significantly in recent quarter, although this is somewhat offset by large customer growth. Alteryx increased their penetration of the Global 2,000 to 46% in the third quarter, up 7% YoY. The slowdown in customer growth is one of main signs of weakness in Alteryx's business at the moment. Figure 3: Alteryx Customers (source: Created by author using data from Alteryx) The number of job openings mentioning Alteryx in the job requirements has begun to fall in the past few months, after steadily increasing since the early days of the pandemic. Growth in the number of openings is outpacing growth in the number of hiring organizations, another indication of Alteryx's increased focus on penetrating larger organizations. Figure 4: Job Openings Mentioning Alteryx in the Job Requirements (source: Revealera.com) Search interest for Alteryx pricing remains relatively weak, although it is not clear if this means there is no longer broad based interest in Alteryx's platform.Artículo de análisis • Dec 28
Is Alteryx, Inc. (NYSE:AYX) Trading At A 22% Discount?
Key Insights Alteryx's estimated fair value is US$60.4 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of...Seeking Alpha • Dec 19
Alteryx: Unattractive Growth Trends Lead To Falling Efficiencies In Operation
Summary Alteryx, Inc. recorded an outstanding total revenue YoY growth of 74.66%, thanks to its growing customer base. However, this growth was unable to translate to margin improvement and maintained operating loss in its Q3 ‘22. Additionally, the company started producing negative cash flow from operations despite continued growth in its stock-based compensation. Alteryx remains costly in comparison to its peers, and its lack of profitability makes it an unappealing stock as of this writing. Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) is one of the leading cloud-based software companies that provides data analytics solutions. Despite today's more difficult operating environment, it is constantly expanding, and in fact, just made a new strategic investment in MANTA, with the goal of creating an end-to-end data lineage solution. In fact, the company secured a partnership with EY this year, which will help the latter with their digital transformation. AYX continued to expand its customer base and increased its Global 2,000 penetration to 46%. Despite this, the company has become inefficient, as seen by its declining operating margin. Finally, AYX trades at a premium to its peers, making it an unappealing investment as of this writing. Company Overview During its Q3 ‘22, AYX recorded a $215.7 million total revenue, up 74.66% YoY on a comparable quarter basis. This is thanks to its growing subscription-based software license revenue, amounting to $111.59 million, up 197.8% YoY. The key driver of this growth comes from its improving customer base. AYX: Customer base (Source: Company Filings, Prepared by the Author) However, looking at its YoY growth rates as shown in the image below, we can see a slowing growth figure despite the completion of its Trifacta acquisition. Furthermore, this rising top line is failing to transfer into higher gross and operating margins. In fact, AYX suffered from operational inefficiencies as shown in its declining margins. AYX: Declining Gross and Operating Margin (Source: Data from SeekingAlpha. Prepared by the Author) We can link its recent acquisition to one of the key factors slowing gross margin, as shown in the image above. Another aspect influencing this is the increasing expenses related to its growing staff base count of 2,824, up from 2,000 in FY '21. This snowballed to its declining operating margin, and in fact, AYX is constantly increasing its selling and marketing investment, putting pressure on its operating margin as well. AYX: Selling and Marketing Expense Trend. Amounts are in Millions ( Source: Company Filings. Prepared by the Author. Amounts are in Millions) To sum it up, its slowing YoY growth in customer base and declining margin makes this stock unattractive. Unattractive Vs Peers AYX: Relative Valuation (Source: Data from SeekingAlpha. Prepared by the Author) Peers are: Asana, Inc. (NYSE:ASAN), RingCentral, Inc. (NYSE:RNG), New Relic, Inc. (NYSE:NEWR), Workiva Inc. (NYSE:WK), Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC). AYX is trading unattractively against its peers as shown in its 121.02x forward EV/EBITDA compared to its peers' median of 89.06x. On top of this, the company’s trailing EV/Sales is relatively more expensive than its peers' median of 5.34x, while its forward EV/Sales of 4.82x will remain elevated above its peers' median of 4.79x. AYX: Relative Valuation (Source: Prepared by the Author) At an implied EV/EBITDA of 89.06x and EV/Sales of 4.79x and an estimated EBITDA amounting to $33.19 million and total revenue of $833.35 million in FY ‘22, we can arrive at a blended fair price of $44. This provides no margin of safety, making it an unattractive long candidate, as of this writing. Printing A Potential Lower Highs AYX: Weekly Chart (Source: Author’s Tradingview Account) On the weekly chart, the price of AYX has recovered at around $39 level and is on the way to re-testing its psychological resistance around $59 per share. This is especially true given the possibility of a bullish crossover on its MACD signal, as indicated in the chart above. On the other hand, AYX is trading below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating significant negative momentum. If price trades near its 20- and 50-day moving averages, I believe it will attract bears and induce price action to make lower highs. Growing TAM One of the value-adding catalysts for Alteryx is its efforts to expand. In fact, it finished the acquisition of Trifacta early this year. The management aims to enhance its cloud-based data analytic capabilities and especially enhances its Alteryx Designer Cloud service. As a result, I believe AYX is in a better position to capitalize opportunities in its growing total addressable market, as shown in the image below.Seeking Alpha • Oct 18
Alteryx: A Return To Growth
Summary Alteryx has reaccelerated growth, driven in large part by a shift in sales strategy. Alteryx has made a number of acquisitions and introduced new products that should help the company remain relevant as data architectures evolve. Questions remain about the company's long-term competitive positioning, and the stock no longer appears as cheap as it once did. Alteryx (AYX) offers a data analytics platform that has traditionally been targeted at citizen data scientists. The stock has performed poorly over the past few years, driven by the combination of Alteryx's slow shift to the cloud and the demise of the ETL paradigm. Alteryx's recent product innovation and acquisitions better position the company for the future, and the company's revamped sales strategy appears to be working. Relative to peers, the stock no longer appears as cheap as it once did due to the large pullback in software stocks. Market Data and analytics remain important strategic initiatives for most companies, despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment. For example, close to half of Alteryx's customers are appointing Chief Data Officers whose focus is on combining business and analytics strategies. Despite this, it is likely that an economic slowdown will entail some reduction in spending on data analytics. Hiring data indicates that a modest reduction in growth has been underway since late 2021. Figure 1: Job Openings Mentioning Data Analytics in the Requirements (Revealera.com) Even if a recession occurs in the near term, the long-term prospects for data analytics remain bright. Alteryx believes their current market opportunity is approximately 65 billion USD across the analytics and data engineering space. These markets are projected to exceed 110 billion USD by 2025. Alteryx aims to democratize access to analytics and believes there are over 78 million advanced spreadsheet users who would benefit from their platforms. Alteryx believes their current user base is less than 1% penetrated into this population and that many of their customers are early in their journeys to data-centricity Figure 2: Alteryx Total Addressable Market (Alteryx) The current analytics landscape is extremely fragmented though, with the majority of spend directed towards disparate siloed legacy data engineering and analytic tools. Customers appear to be transitioning towards unified platforms though, and more customers are moving data into environments like cloud data warehouses. This trend should favor companies that offer end-to-end platforms and is likely to be even more important in the event of a recession. Figure 3: Overlap in Analytics Software Vendors (Alteryx) Alteryx Alteryx is focused on providing customers with a unified platform so that they can consolidate vendors and reduce complexity. Customers also want more automation, and Alteryx is building out these capabilities. Alteryx's product innovation is focused on cloud centricity, big data fluency and AI. Suresh Vittal was brought in to lead Alteryx's product innovation initiatives. He has experience transitioning from on-premise to cloud products at Adobe (ADBE) which is relevant to Alteryx's current situation. Most of Alteryx's innovation efforts have been aimed at developing a cloud-native solution, something that they were initially slow to do. Designer Cloud is built to support Alteryx's existing products rather than replace them, as it addresses different personas and different use cases. Designer Cloud makes access to Designer ubiquitous, as it provides interoperability across on-prem and cloud and no-friction adoption. Designer Cloud went through beta testing in 2021 and was made generally available in 2022. Alteryx has also been adding to their capabilities in Machine Learning, Intelligence Suite and Designer. Designer Cloud, Alteryx Machine Learning and Alteryx Auto Insights are now available in North America. Figure 4: Alteryx Product Portfolio (Alteryx) Alteryx has also made a number of acquisitions to build out the capabilities of its platform. Hyper Anna and Lore IO were acquired to enhance cloud functionality and improve data discovery capabilities. Lore IO Lore IO is a no-code data modeling platform that allows users to push workflows into an environment like Snowflake (SNOW) or Databricks. This acquisition provides capabilities in cloud-native analytic compute optimization and in-database processing, allowing Alteryx customers to extract value from large datasets. Hyper Anna Hyper Anna provides a cloud-based platform that allows anyone to generate insights from data, regardless of technical background. This acquisition allows Alteryx to automate the end-to-end analytic pipeline from data sources to AI-driven insights. Hyper Anna's platform allows users to quickly scale insights and provide greater flexibility than traditional business intelligence dashboards. Hyper Anna has been rebranded as Alteryx Auto Insights. Trifacta Trifacta provides a leading data preparation solution that is used by over 10,000 companies for data wrangling and exploratory analysis. Their platform allows analysts to explore, transform, and enrich raw data into clean and structured formats by leveraging machine learning, data visualization, human-computer interaction, and parallel processing. Figure 5: Trifacta's Platform (Trifacta) The acquisition of Trifacta accelerates Alteryx's journey to the cloud by providing a data integration layer, that along with Alteryx's Cloud Platform, constitutes an analytics platform. Trifacta will eventually become the cloud-based back-end for the combined Alteryx platform. Trifacta is targeted more at the needs of IT and data engineers than Alteryx's other solutions, helping to broaden their user base. The Trifacta team, prior to the acquisition, predominantly sold to whoever was making the Cloud Data Warehouse decision. Much of Alteryx's change in fortunes over the past 12 months appears to be related to their salesforce and go-to-market strategy. In the past, the sales organization targeted analysts and was not able to clearly articulate Alteryx's value proposition around functional and digital transformation. Alteryx is now focused on larger enterprises and is targeting senior executives (CIO, CCO, CMO, CRO, CFO) with a top-down sales motion. To do this, Alteryx brought in experience from a range of companies (Adobe, Palo Alto (PANW), Cisco (CSCO), VMware (VMW)). This shift in strategy, coupled with a tight labor market, caused a significant amount of attrition amongst Alteryx's salesforce in 2021 and subsequent concern amongst investors. In hindsight, these concerns were overblown as Alteryx has managed to expand its salesforce and increase its productivity, while attrition has normalized. Employee attrition has halved since the peak in Q2 2021 and Alteryx has seen double-digit improvements in sales rep productivity in Q2 2022. This shift in strategy appears to have been successful, with Alteryx closing nearly twice as many million USD plus deals in Q4 2021 than they did a year earlier. Alteryx also achieved 45% growth in the number of customers with over one million USD in ARR over the same period. Approximately 39% of the Global 2000 are now Alteryx customers, and the company is targeting much greater penetration. Sales productivity and renewal rates have also been increasing. This has not come without cost though, as Alteryx's salesforce has increased significantly and consequently so have sales and marketing expenses. Alteryx is also having success with enterprise license agreements that allow them to sell higher in a customer's organization and enable customers to scale faster. ELAs provide companies with a frictionless path to more broadly leveraged cloud opportunities within the Alteryx analytics platform. Partnerships, both technology and channel, are becoming increasingly important for Alteryx as they focus on the cloud and larger customers. Partner-influenced business constituted approximately 50% of new ACV bookings in Q2 2022. Alteryx has a strategic alliance with KPMG that is designed to help organizations accelerate data-driven business transformation around tax operations. Tier 1 accounting and consulting firms are among Alteryx's largest customers, with PwC alone having more than 150,000 Alteryx licenses. Most of these firms use Alteryx in their transformation, functional, department or digital projects. Alteryx has also expanded their partnership with Thomson Reuters, allowing them to sell Alteryx across three of their key business units. Alteryx's strategy with technology partners is to deliver seamless integrations for customers and encourage deep-field collaboration. Alteryx is in the top tier of Snowflake's tech partner program. The two companies have over 500 customers in common and growing. Alteryx Designer and Server became available in the AWS Marketplace in Q4 2021. This means that customers with enterprise discount programs in place can now have Alteryx product purchases count towards their annual consumption commitment. Figure 6: Alteryx Partners (Alteryx) Alteryx recently achieved FIPS compliance, which applies to on-premise technologies and helps to unlock the federal and public sector markets. Alteryx is also working on FedRAMP for their cloud technologies. Driving end user adoption also remains an important part of Alteryx's strategy. Alteryx has a strong community, with over 290,000 users. Alteryx is also building their user base with their SparkED program, an education and upskilling initiative that provides users with data analytics knowledge and skills. There are now more than 130,000 students representing over 700 universities in the program. These students have the potential to become Alteryx advocates throughout their careers. The market for analytics software is highly fragmented, with over 400 companies competing for various segments of the market. The current market downturn could make funding difficult going forward and result in consolidation the space, which may ultimately be beneficial for larger companies. Alteryx believes they are well positioned due to their large user base and the comprehensiveness of their platform. They believe this is validated by their success with partners like Snowflake and UiPath (PATH) as well as their strong win rates. Management has also stated that they don't see a lot of competition as they are more focused on expanding sales within their large user base. Financial Analysis Alteryx's revenue growth stagnated in 2021, which was in part due to a shift in their business model. Average contract duration declined due to a focus on ACV and Alteryx suggested that every tenth in annual duration compression impacted revenue by 10 million USD. ARR is unaffected by contract duration and hence has been a better indicator of business performance over this period. Alteryx has had fundamental issues as well though, such as slower customer growth and elevated churn, particularly amongst smaller customers. Alteryx's gross customer retention rate is typically in the 90s, with churn concentrated amongst smaller and newer customers. On the most recent earnings call, management seemed quite positive, suggesting that demand was healthy as evidenced by multiyear high renewal rates and solid year-over-year growth in pipeline generation. Alteryx's net expansion rate has been fairly consistent at around 120%, and a stronger 127% within global 2000 customers. Customer additions have been modest in recent quarters though, which may just be a reflection of Alteryx's focus on larger customers. Alteryx's acquisition of Trifacta closed on February 7, 2022 and Alteryx anticipates that this acquisition will contribute approximately 20 million USD in ARR in 2022. The revenue contribution is expected to be limited due to purchase accounting treatment of deferred revenue. Figure 7: Alteryx Revenue Growth (Created by author using data from Alteryx) Alteryx's gross profit margins have generally been around 90% in the past, although they are likely to decline somewhat as the cloud business grows in relative importance. Operating profit margins have declined significantly in recent quarters as Alteryx has been investing aggressively, and is only now beginning to realize the benefits.Seeking Alpha • Sep 29
Alteryx: Not Getting Excited Over Falling Returns
Summary Alteryx is demonstrating stabilization in key metrics such as annual recurring revenue growth and dollar-based net expansion rate in Q2 FY12/2022. This comes at a price with record-high spending in sales and marketing, with no evidence of sustainable underlying growth. With the shares trading on a consensus free cash flow yield of 0.3%, we reiterate our neutral rating on the shares. Investment thesis Recent trading has shown that Alteryx (AYX) is demonstrating some stabilization in key metrics such as annual recurring revenue growth and dollar-based net expansion rate. However, this is coming at a cost with record-high spending in sales and marketing, with no evidence of sustainable underlying growth. With the shares not looking undervalued, we reiterate our neutral rating on the shares. Quick primer Alteryx is a provider of data preparation software called Designer, sold as packaged software on desktop PCs for individual licenses and servers for multi-users, and a cloud version released in 2022. The product is targeted primarily at 'citizen' data scientists, as opposed to highly skilled analytics experts. Current CEO Mark Anderson was appointed in October 2020, replacing co-founder Dean Stoecker who was made chairman. Peers include Power BI from Microsoft (MSFT), Tableau (CRM), and Domo (DOMO). Key financials including consensus forecasts Key financials including consensus estimates (Company, Refinitiv) Our objectives With CEO Mark Anderson approaching the second anniversary of his appointment, we want to see how much progress has been made to turn the business around. We are updating our view after our neutral rating from April 2022, where we felt that Q4 FY12/2021 results highlighted an unconvincing set of key performance metrics, with the Trifacta deal looking expensive and likely not to be a significant game-changer. A very mixed picture Q2 FY12/2022 results received a positive reaction from the market. The key factors appeared to be a stabilizing trend in growth metrics, chiefly for annual recurring revenue [ARR] growth YoY and dollar-based net expansion rate. ARR gives an indication of future revenue growth (although the timing is impacted by revenue recognition policies), and net expansion rate (more commonly referred to as net revenue retention or NRR) provides a metric of customer success with existing customers. Alteryx has seen ARR growth stabilize for the last two quarters. This is positive, but not exactly a major turnaround. Quarterly ARR Growth YoY Trend Quarterly ARR growth YoY (Company) We also see that the Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate saw an improvement QoQ. This metric compares sales growth YoY from the same cohort of customers, thereby only showing the upgrade/downgrade behavior of existing customers (as opposed to new ones as well). The conclusion is that customer success is performing better - although not a huge change QoQ and flat YoY. Quarterly Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate Growth YoY Trend Quarterly Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate Growth YoY Trend (Company) The key question we ask is how this improvement has been achieved. The earnings call talked about focusing on government and enterprise customers, a new sales channel with professional services firm BDO, providing unified cloud deals and integration with technology partners. However, the financials also highlight that sales and marketing costs have increased significantly to 63% of non-GAPP Q2 FY12/2022 sales. Alteryx is spending aggressively to invest in growth, spending double the planned proportion of its long-term target average. Sales and marketing expense as % of non-GAAP sales Sales and marketing expense as % of non-GAAP sales (Company, Karreta Advisors) As a result, even non-GAAP operating margins have collapsed, with H1 FY12/2022 recording a -18% level. Non-GAAP operating margin trend Non-GAAP operating margin trend (Company) To conclude, as investors we would expect to see a better return on performance metrics with this level of sales and marketing spend. Potentially, the benefits will materialize after a couple more quarters, but the company remains way off the benchmark SaaS 'Rule of 40' where the combination of revenue growth (+50% YoY for Q2 FY12/2022) and operating profit margin (-18%) equates to 40%, seen as a sustainable level of performance. One should also add that no one should really be that excited about Alteryx booking 50% revenue growth YoY, as mechanics of ASC 606 (page 34) means major upfront recognition of contract values effectively misrepresent the real underlying growth of the business. The fact that Alteryx has decided to book approximately 50% of the total contract value in FY2022 from 35%-40% in FY2021 means that we are also not comparing apples to apples. ValuationPrevisiones de crecimiento de beneficios e ingresos
| Fecha | Ingresos | Beneficios | Flujo de caja libre | Flujo de caja operativo | Núm. de analistas medio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 1,193 | -190 | 113 | 148 | 11 |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,072 | -203 | 78 | 67 | 13 |
| 12/31/2023 | 970 | -179 | 5 | 29 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 920 | -290 | -67 | -43 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 903 | -315 | -73 | -43 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 897 | -302 | -107 | -74 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 855 | -319 | -141 | -105 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 728 | -325 | -114 | -74 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 636 | -308 | -47 | -8 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 575 | -245 | 10 | 46 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 536 | -180 | 30 | 63 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 523 | -120 | 50 | 83 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 529 | -58 | 57 | 84 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 505 | -50 | 54 | 81 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 495 | -24 | 48 | 75 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 491 | -16 | 17 | 37 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 465 | -26 | 16 | 34 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 451 | 6 | 23 | 38 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 418 | 27 | 23 | 34 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 351 | 13 | 21 | 28 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 310 | 30 | 20 | 26 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 279 | 29 | 23 | 30 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 254 | 28 | 19 | 26 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 203 | 10 | 17 | 24 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 175 | -4 | 14 | 20 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 153 | -7 | 22 | 26 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 132 | -19 | 15 | 19 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 118 | -26 | N/A | 10 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 106 | -29 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 96 | -31 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 86 | -31 | N/A | -6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 76 | -31 | N/A | -11 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 54 | -24 | N/A | -8 | N/A |
| 12/31/2014 | 38 | -22 | N/A | -3 | N/A |
Previsiones de crecimiento futuro de los analistas
Ingresos vs. Tasa de ahorro: Se prevé que AYX siga sin ser rentable en los próximos 3 años.
Beneficios vs. Mercado: Se prevé que AYX siga sin ser rentable en los próximos 3 años.
Beneficios de alto crecimiento: Se prevé que AYX siga sin ser rentable en los próximos 3 años.
Ingresos vs. Mercado: Se prevé que los ingresos (10.3% al año) de AYX crezcan más rápidamente que los del mercado US (11.7% al año).
Ingresos de alto crecimiento: Se prevé que los ingresos 10.3% al año) de AYX crezcan más despacio que 20% al año.
Previsiones de crecimiento de los beneficios por acción
Rentabilidad financiera futura
ROE futura: Se prevé que la rentabilidad financiera de AYX sea alta dentro de 3 años (32.8%)
Descubre empresas en crecimiento
Análisis de la empresa y estado de los datos financieros
| Datos | Última actualización (huso horario UTC) |
|---|---|
| Análisis de la empresa | 2024/03/18 18:12 |
| Precio de las acciones al final del día | 2024/03/18 00:00 |
| Beneficios | 2023/12/31 |
| Ingresos anuales | 2023/12/31 |
Fuentes de datos
Los datos utilizados en nuestro análisis de empresas proceden de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Los siguientes datos se utilizan en nuestro modelo de análisis para generar este informe. Los datos están normalizados, lo que puede introducir un retraso desde que la fuente está disponible.
| Paquete | Datos | Marco temporal | Ejemplo Fuente EE.UU. * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finanzas de la empresa | 10 años |
| |
| Estimaciones del consenso de analistas | +3 años |
|
|
| Precios de mercado | 30 años |
| |
| Propiedad | 10 años |
| |
| Gestión | 10 años |
| |
| Principales avances | 10 años |
|
* Ejemplo para valores de EE.UU., para no EE.UU. se utilizan formularios y fuentes normativas equivalentes.
A menos que se especifique lo contrario, todos los datos financieros se basan en un periodo anual, pero se actualizan trimestralmente. Esto se conoce como datos de los últimos doce meses (TTM) o de los últimos doce meses (LTM). Más información.
Modelo de análisis y copo de nieve
Los detalles del modelo de análisis utilizado para generar este informe están disponibles en nuestra página de Github, también tenemos guías sobre cómo utilizar nuestros informes y tutoriales en Youtube.
Conozca al equipo de talla mundial que diseñó y construyó el modelo de análisis Simply Wall St.
Métricas industriales y sectoriales
Simply Wall St calcula cada 6 horas nuestras métricas sectoriales y de sección. Los detalles de nuestro proceso están disponibles en Github.
Fuentes analistas
Alteryx, Inc. está cubierta por 21 analistas. 13 de esos analistas presentaron las estimaciones de ingresos o ganancias utilizadas como datos para nuestro informe. Las estimaciones de los analistas se actualizan a lo largo del día.
| Analista | Institución |
|---|---|
| Edward Magi | Berenberg |
| Koji Ikeda | BofA Global Research |
| Tyler Radke | Citigroup Inc |