Harmony Gold Mining Dividendos y recompras
Dividendo controles de criterios 4/6
Harmony Gold Mining es una empresa que paga dividendos con una rentabilidad actual de 1.81% que está bien cubierta por los beneficios.
Información clave
1.8%
Rentabilidad por dividendo
n/a
Rendimiento de la recompra
| Rendimiento total para el accionista | n/a |
| Rendimiento futuro de los dividendos | 8.1% |
| Crecimiento de los dividendos | 21.3% |
| Próxima fecha de pago de dividendos | n/a |
| Fecha ex dividendo | n/a |
| Dividendo por acción | n/a |
| Ratio de pago | 26% |
Últimas actualizaciones de dividendos y recompras
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Feb 27
Harmony Gold Mining: Gold-Funded Copper Expansion
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) trades at a Trailing P/E of 16x, significantly below sector averages, despite robust growth and international expansion. HMY is transitioning from a regional gold producer to a diversified international commodity player, notably increasing copper exposure via a $1B Australian acquisition. Valuation appears compelling on a peer basis, but market skepticism persists regarding the sustainability of current high ROIC, seen as gold price-driven. HMY is rated a buy at $21.49, primarily as a proxy for the gold and copper commodity cycle, with near-term upside to $25–$30 if metals rally. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 14
Harmony Gold Mining: Amazing Future With Rising Gold Price
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited stock is rated "Hold" due to high stock prices and limited upside potential despite strong gold price-driven performance. HMY's profitability and growth prospects have improved significantly due to rising gold prices, leading to a strategic shift towards a balanced gold-copper portfolio. The company boasts strong liquidity and financial health, with substantial cash reserves and a promising copper production project in Queensland, Australia, starting in 2029. Investors are advised to hold positions and wait for a price dip, as current HMY stock levels are high and further upside is limited. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 04
Harmony Gold: Striking Gold With Copper
Summary Harmony Gold is highly leveraged to gold prices, making it a compelling investment, but current valuation suggests a "Hold" rating. HMY's operations are primarily in South Africa, with significant projects in Australia and Papua New Guinea in the pipeline. FY24 saw record Operating Free Cash Flow and improved cost metrics, but political risks in South Africa and potential gold price pullbacks pose significant risks. Despite strong long-term prospects, I recommend waiting for a better entry point around $10 or selling $9 puts to gain exposure to HMY. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 12
Harmony Gold: Solid Bullish Conviction In The Market. Possible "Dip" Opportunity
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is rated "Hold". The stock represents a gold mining company with strong financials, and robust production, amid favourable gold price trends. HMY's operational consistency, rising gold prices and mitigating effects on US dollar costs have led to profitability growth and share price appreciation. Despite slightly lower production and higher costs expected for FY 2025, market sentiment remains positive as the company's diversification plan towards more profitable/low-risk assets is seen as very likely. Investors should hold HMY shares, awaiting a dip in stock price for a more attractive entry point to increase holdings. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 27
Harmony Gold: A High-Cost Miner Significantly Leveraged To Gold Prices
Summary Harmony Gold is a high-cost gold miner. Its earnings recovery is expected to be stronger than that of its peers due to the gold price rally. The outlook for the gold price remains positive, even after the September Fed rate cut has been priced in. Production volume continues to surprise the market driven by a sustainable improvement in recovered grade. The valuation is not stretched and results for FY24 are better than expected. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 24
Harmony Gold Mining: Lower Fundamental Risk Comes With Higher Price
Summary Harmony Gold Mining is a gold and copper miner with assets in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company has a variety of mining assets, with approximately half of total production having a life of mine of a decade or longer, suggesting durable cash flow. HMY successfully grew production and improved margins over the past decade, while eliminating most debt, making it a much healthier company today. With the resulting price increase, it is likely fairly valued, but growing dividend distributions are likely to benefit HMY shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 09
Harmony Gold: Rally Continues As Operations Expand And Gold Prices Rise
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited has a positive outlook due to robust gold prices and consistent operations. The company's shares have performed well and are not considered expensive, but a lower price in the near term is possible. HMY is well-positioned as a leader in gold production in South Africa and still has expansion projects in place. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 21
Harmony Gold: Bright Outlook And Possible Lower Share Price
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company has a positive outlook due to improving gold production and operating costs and a higher gold price ahead. The analysis suggests a "hold" rating until the Fed appears ready to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, uncertainty keeps sentiment neutral, while higher rates set the stage for lower stock price. Harmony Gold is benefiting from strong performance in its gold activities, leading to improved profitability and balance sheet deleveraging. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 04
Harmony Gold: Shiny Fundamentals, But A Dull 2024 Outlook For Gold
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company stock warrants a hold rating due to mixed variables impacting its share price. The company itself has demonstrated strong growth and profitability, but its profitability is dependent on the commodity price of gold. The outlook for the price of gold in 2024 is uncertain, and global gold production is expected to slow, impacting Harmony Gold's revenue. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 18
Harmony Gold: I Find The Stock Attractive
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company announced its FY23 results on August 23, 2023. The company's solid balance sheet, low net debt, and potential for future growth make it an attractive long-term investment. I recommend buying HMY between $4.25 and $4.10 with possible lower support at $3.90. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 10
Harmony Gold Mining: Looks Attractive Below $4
Summary Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's revenue for the last nine months was $1,946 million, up 11% (using the SA Rand) from the preceding nine months. Production for the 9 months ending March 31, 2023, was 1,086,213 Au Oz, up 1.6% from 1,068,718 Au Oz for the preceding 9 months ending in March 2022. I recommend buying Harmony Gold between $3.90 and $3.70, with possible lower support at $3.50. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 03
Harmony Gold: Production In Line With Guidance
Summary Total gold preliminary production for H2 2022 is 732,500 Au Oz (mid-point) compared to 778,879 Au Oz in H2 2021. The total gold production for 2022 (FY23) is approximately 1,440,138. Harmony received all necessary permits and approvals for the Kareerand tailings storage facility expansion at Mine Waste Solutions. I recommend buying HMY between $3.60 and $3.25, with possible lower support at $2.90. Introduction Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) is one of the South African gold miners I regularly cover on Seeking Alpha. This article is an update to my article published on October 12, 2022. I have followed Harmony Gold regularly on Seeking Alpha since September 2019. The company operates nine underground mining operations, one open-pit mine, and four South Africa surface operations. Furthermore, Harmony Gold is active in Papua New Guinea, where it owns the Hidden Valley mine, an open-pit gold and silver mine. Recent noticeable news that supports this update On November 17, 2022, Harmony Gold posted an operational update for the three months ending September 30, 2022. HMY 3Q22 Highlights (HMY Press release) Finally, on February 1, 2023, Harmoney Gold announced its initial gold production for the half-year that ended December 31 and its full-year 2022 production. Investment thesis Harmony Gold is a well-diversified company focusing on South Africa, which increases the risk premium as the country presents numerous technical (electrical shortages, for one), labor, and political issues. Despite this non-negligible inconvenience, I still find HMY attractive for the long term based on its solid balance sheet, reasonable valuation, and potential for future growth. As of September 30, 2022, Net debt to EBITDA increased to 0.26x from 0.1x due to working capital movements and currency translation. However, it is still a solid position. The gold price had surged since December when the market realized that inflationary pressures were abating, and the FED was ready to slow down its interest rate increase from 75 points last year to 25 points in early February 2023. The gold price is now trading above $1,900 per ounce, which is an attractive valuation for Harmony Gold. HMY 1-Year Chart Gold, Silver, Copper (Fun Trading StockCharts) Thus, one great strategy I often recommend in this sector, especially for HMY, is trading LIFO for about 65% of your total position and keeping a core long-term position for a much higher payday. Doing so allows you to take advantage of the short-term volatility while positioning for a possible future uptrend. Stock performance HMY is down 1% on a one-year basis. The stock price is disappointing and lags most of its peers with a strong position in Africa. Data by YCharts Harmony Gold Mining - Balance Sheet Ending September 2022 and Production Data as of December 2022 - The Raw Numbers Note: All numbers are indicated in US$. The company said recently: As a rand-cost producer, the gold price received continued to move in Harmony's favour Harmony Gold Mining 12/20/20 6/2021 12/2021 6/2022 3Q22 12/2022 Total Revenues in $ Million 1,451 1,448 1,381 1,309 659 - Net Income in $ Million 307.3 36.9 87.28 -154.2 - - EBITDA $ Million 402.6 75.54 123.90 -146.0 - - EPS diluted in $/share 0.50 0.06 0.14 -0.25 - - Operating Cash flow in $ Million 388 244 232 205 50 - Capital Expenditure in $ Million 159 200 199 192 - - Free Cash Flow in $ Million 229 45 32 13 - - Total Cash $ Million 283 203 185 155 - - Total Long-term Debt (incl. current) In $ Million 322 214 205 203 - - Shares outstanding (diluted) in Million 616 616 610 615 - - Production Au Oz 12/2020 6/2021 12/2021 6/2022 3Q22 12/2022 Total Production Gold 745,347 756,473 778,879 707,638 366,390 732.5 (mid-point) Underground SA 556,011 547,505 577,457 526,148 272,219 - Surface SA 120,276 118,765 141,269 122,461 61,634 - PGN 69,060 90,602 60,153 59,029 32,537 - Data Source: Company document Estimated by Fun Trading Balance Sheet Analysis 1 - Revenue for 3Q22 (ending September 30, 2022) and other financial indicators Note: The full-year 2022 results will be announced in March. HMY Quarterly and 6-month revenues history (Fun Trading) Harmony Gold posted revenue of $659 million in 3Q22. Quarterly Production in 3Q22 decreased sequentially due to the closure of Bambanani. Revenue for 2022 (FY23) will be indicated in March. 2 - Production analysis - historical data and commentary Total gold preliminary production for H2 2022 is 732,500 Au Oz (mid-point) compared to 778,879 Au Oz in H2 2021. The total gold production for 2022 (FY23) is ~1,440,138 Au oz (see second chart below). HMY Gold production history (Fun Trading) Yearly gold production for 2022 (FY23) is a range between 720K ounces and 745K ounces (mid-point 732.5k ounces): HMY Yearly Production history (Fun Trading) Note: HMY produces gold from three segments: Surface and underground in South Africa and Hidden Valley in PNG. The Underground production in South Africa is the most prolific. On February 1, 2023, HMY said: Harmony is pleased to announce that total gold production for the six-month period ended 31 December 2022 of financial year 2023 ("H1FY23") was between 720 000 ounces (22 394kg) and 745 000 ounces (23 171kg).Seeking Alpha • Jan 11
Harmony Gold: Unconvincing Margins And Overestimated Price Support
Summary A best-case scenario characterized by supportive gold prices and lower base input costs probably won't be enough to recover Harmony Gold's diminished profit margins. The company's underground operations host underwhelming return ratios. Although most of the firm's input costs might find calm, current electricity expenses should be considered as the new baseline. The Dow to Gold ratio likely lacks statistical significance. Nonetheless, a downward-sloping yield curve could act as a catalyst for Gold price support. Harmony Gold's profitability ratios are severely compressed at both their current levels and their cyclical peaks. Apart from lucrative dump mining sites, the company generally operates a high-cost model. The security's total return prospects are gloomy as Harmony's stock lacks carry returns and its price returns remain severely speculative. There has been much talk surrounding gold miners amid an anticipated gold price pivot. However, much of the published research I've seen is one-dimensional, which assumes certain indicators as settled law. Thus, I decided to juxtapose preliminary research with coverage of one of the most renowned gold securities. Today's article discusses Harmony Gold (HMY), a precious metals miner whose stock has risen by more than 20% in the past six months. Gold prices are assessed within the article, and the assessment of the company's profit margins is of particular focus. HMY Stock Price History (Seeking Alpha) Dow To Gold Ratio & Other Price Arguments Dow To Gold The Dow to Gold ratio is a well-known market anomaly that measures the units of Gold required to buy the Dow Jones Index. The theory claims investors will buy Gold and sell stocks whenever the ratio exceeds 15. The ratio is currently above 15, and Gold has surged during the past six months; however, the Dow has performed in line. Dow to Gold Ratio (Macro Trends) The issue I have with this ratio pertains to confirmation bias. According BullionVault, market participants would've traded this strategy six times in the past 100 years. How on earth can we conclude that something is statistically significant with merely six observations? U.S. Dollar Correlation Based on my anecdote and according to academic research, the price of Gold has an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar due to demand elasticity and inflation, among other reasons. The current U.S. yield curve is downward sloping. This means the market anticipated future interest rates to settle lower, which also conveys lower inflation estimates (until the curve steepens again). In theory, lower rates and lower implied inflation will likely translate into dollar index compression and gold price support. U.S. Yield Curve (GuruFocus) Recession Risk An overlooked argument is recession risk. Although gold can sustain value during economic downturns, the commodity remains susceptible to deep recessions. The word on the street is that the U.S. and most other nations will enter a recession in this year's third quarter. Whether the predicted recession comes to fruition is a debate on its own. However, the market could price a prospective economic slowdown, leading to a potential gold price slump. Operational Overview & Outlook Operational Analysis Harmony Gold's operations are primarily situated in South Africa. However, its endeavor extends to Morobe in Papua New Guinea and corporate joint ventures in Australia, which will be discussed later on. South African Underground Harmony's South African operations are primarily deep mining focused via its eight underground mines, predominantly in the Wits basin. In addition, the company has an open-cast mine on the Kraaipan Greenbelt and hosts various surface retreatment operations. Operational Footprint (Harmony Gold) I've repeated this time and time. I simply don't like the South African deep gold mining landscape, as the cost versus benefit isn't what it used to be in past decades. For instance, Harmony's Mponeng mine (the world's deepest mine) delivers approximately 14.15% of the firm's milled ore, yet, its operating free cash flow margin is at a mere 5% to 13%. Keep in mind that this was a recent acquisition as part of the company's growth plan, which is why I highlight it. Collectively, the company's South African underground assets aren't providing illustrious performance ratios. The portfolio's sales to CapEx ratio of 7.8x and its operating free cash flow margin of 9% are simply underwhelming from my point of view. In U.S. dollar terms, the company's all-in-sustaining costs dropped by around 12% during its latest quarter, while revenue and production only tapered by roughly 3.5% and 2.1% apiece. I anticipate that both fixed and variable costs will compress slightly as broad-based inflation, including wage growth, service costs, and fuel prices, could flatline. Nevertheless, keep in mind that South Africa's Eskom crisis could keep base electricity costs elevated for the foreseeable future. South African Surface The firm's surface operations are slightly less elastic than its underground interests. Nonetheless, margins are unconvincing, with the segment's sales to CapEx at 6.39 and operating free cash flow margin of 8% looking slightly unconvincing. Although Harmony's surface operations aren't convincing, it is mining waste-rock dumps with relative success, as indicated by its Central Park Reclamation and Mavuka Tailings sites' operating cash flow margins of 35% and 31%. Papua New Guinea & Australia Harmony's Hidden Valley mine has tremendous open-pit prospects. However, recent results show that production has receded by 11% year-over-year. The mine delivers gold and silver ore and is a strategic diversification play. Yet, tangible portfolio effects remain thin as the asset only accounts for an infinitesimal amount of the company's total production. Production Summation (Harmony Gold) Compressed Profit Margins Harmony Gold has a mountain to climb to replenish its profitability margins. Even if gold prices surge and base input costs stabilize, the company needs to recover a 3.44% return on common equity deficit for shareholders to receive residual value.Seeking Alpha • Dec 26
Harmony Gold: An Earnings Recovery Story And A Bullish Technical Picture Shapes Up
Summary Gold mining stocks have solidly outperformed the broad market in 2022. More upside could be on the way now that the rise in yields has eased. One foreign small-cap gold/silver miner jumps out with impressive free cash flow in the coming quarters and a bullish price reversal.Seeking Alpha • Oct 12
Harmony Gold: Acquisition Of A Copper/Gold Project In Australia Makes Sense
Summary Harmony Gold posted revenue of $1,373 million in H1 2022 (fiscal H2 2022) compared to $1,448 million in H1 2021. On October 6, 2022, Harmony Gold announced the acquisition of a near-term Australian Copper Eva Project from Copper Mountain Mining Corp. for up to $230 million. I recommend buying HMY at or below $2 with possible lower support at $1.65, if gold price falls below $1,625 per ounce. Introduction Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) is one of the South African gold miners I regularly cover on Seeking Alpha. The 6-month interim results for H1 2022 were released on August 30, 2022. Note: As always, for gold mining companies based in South Africa, analyzing the balance sheet is an arduous task because of the complexity of the reports from a quarter, nine-month, one year, and six-month, considered the most critical report. Furthermore, the results are mainly in Rand and have to be converted into US$ (I used a 15.21 ratio indicated by the company). This article is an update of my preceding article, published on March 21, 2022. I have followed Harmony Gold regularly on Seeking Alpha since September 2019. H1 2022 snapshot On August 30, 2022, the company released its six-month period ending June 30, 2022 (H1 2022 or fiscal FY22). The company operates nine underground mining operations, one open-pit mine, and four South Africa surface operations. Furthermore, Harmony Gold is active in Papua New Guinea, where it owns the Hidden Valley mine, an open-pit gold and silver mine. HMY FY22 Snapshot (HMY Presentation ) As we can see later, production for H1 2022 was 707,638 Au Oz, down 6.5% from H1 2021. Note: Total production comprises the underground and surface output for South Africa and production in Hidden Valley in PNG. Revenues were $1,373 million in H1 2022 compared to $1,448 million in H1 2021. Operating free cash flow went down to $205 million this semester, down from $240 million in H1 2021. The company indicated a decrease in underground recovered grade from 5.37 g/t in H1 2022 to 5.51 g/t in H1 2021. On October 6, 2022, Harmony Gold announced the acquisition of a near-term Australian Copper Eva Project from Copper Mountain Mining Corp. for up to $230 million. The Eva Project is located in Queensland, Australia, a Tier-1 jurisdiction. The Transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2023. HMY indicated in the recent presentation that it has sufficient headroom to pay for the Transaction in Cash. HMY The Eva Project (HMY Presentation) This project will add 100 Mlb Cu and 14K Oz per year with a LOM of 15 years. I believe it is a good transaction at the right time. Copper is now a bit depressed, but it is only temporary. Investment Thesis The investment thesis remains unchanged. The company is a good candidate for long-term investors who are not frightened to get involved in the South African gold industry, which could sometimes be concerning. As we can see later, the company has a solid balance sheet and pays a small dividend. However, the gold sector is highly inconsistent and prone to high volatility. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and a frightening multi-year high inflation have created a challenging environment for gold, which has dropped significantly since the FED turned hawkish, hiked the interest rate by two successive 75-point and is about to hike again in November. Inflationary pressures have been a drag on the industry as well. Thus, one great strategy I often recommend in this sector, especially for HMY, is trading LIFO about 50%-60% of your total position and keeping a core long-term position for a much higher payday down the road. Doing so allows you to take advantage of the short-term volatility while positioning for a possible future uptrend. Stock performance HMY is down 21% on a one-year basis. The stock performance has been disappointing and lags Gold Fields (GFI) while following AngloGold Ashanti (AU). Data by YCharts Harmony Gold Mining - Balance sheet ending June 2022 and Production data - The Raw Numbers Note: The numbers indicated are in US$ with a ratio of 15.21x (Rand/US$) for H1 2022. The ADR ratio is 1:1. Harmony Gold Mining 12/20/20 6/2021 12/2021 6/2022 Total Revenues in $ Million 1,451 1,448 1,431 1,373* Net Income in $ Million 307.3 36.9 90.5 -154.2 EBITDA $ Million 402.6 75.54 128.4 -146.0 EPS diluted in $/share 0.50 0.06 0.14 -0.25 Operating Cash flow in $ Million 388 244 240 205 Capital Expenditure in $ Million 159 200 207 192 Free Cash Flow in $ Million 229 45 33 13 Total Cash $ Million 283 203 192 155 Total Long-term Debt (incl. current) In $ Million 322 214 206 201 Shares outstanding (diluted) in Million 616 616 617 614 Production Au Oz 12/2020 6/2021 12/2021 6/2022 Total Production Gold 745,347 756,473 778,879 707,638 Underground SA 556,011 547,505 577,457 526,148 Surface SA 120,276 118,765 141,269 122,461 PGN 69,060 90,602 60,153 59,029 Data Source: Company document Estimated by Fun Trading Balance Sheet Analysis 1 - Revenue for H1 2022 (ending June 30, 2022) and other financial indicators HMY Semester Revenues history (Fun Trading) Harmony Gold posted revenue of $1,373 million in H1 2022 (fiscal H2 2022) compared to $1,448 million in H1 2021. Production guidance for FY23 is estimated to be between 1.4 Moz and 1.5 Moz at an all-in-sustaining costs or AISC of below R900 000/kg. The underground recovered grade is planned to be between 5.45g/t to 5.60g/t. Note: Bambanani mine is expected to be closed in FY23. HMY Production Guidance FY23 (HMY Presentation) Hidden Valley's FY23 production guidance ranges from 152K to 155K oz, much higher than FY22, which experienced conveyor belt damage on January 26, 2022, and lower planned production. Gold and silver production were negatively impacted by the overland conveyor belt failure in January 2022. The overland conveyor belt has since been repaired and we have implemented additional controls to reduce the risk of this happening again. 2 - 6-month production analysis - historical data Total gold production for H1 2022 was 707,638 Au Oz compared to 756,473 Au Oz in H1 2021. The total gold production for 2022 was 1,486,517 Au oz (see second chart below). HMY Gold production history (Fun Trading) Note: HMY produces gold from three segments: Surface and underground in South Africa and Hidden Valley in PNG. The Underground production in South Africa is the most prolific. HMY Production comparison per mine H1 2021 versus H1 2022 (Fun Trading) The average gold price received during H1 2022 was $1,829 versus $1,719 in H1 2021.Seeking Alpha • Sep 24
Harmony Gold Mining: The Rebound Chance Is Slim But Don't Lose Hope
Summary Uncertain outlook and rising volatility are usually good for gold. Among gold stocks, Harmony Gold Mining could rise faster than gold if its market is bullish. Gold is going down as a result of US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, but there is a glimpse of a favorable scenario for the metal. Uncertain Economic Outlook and Rising Volatility Should Favour Gold Investments When the economic climate is significantly stormy, certain investments tend to be favoured over others. This is because some of them help protect the value of the retail investor's securities portfolio from the damaging effects of high volatility, which is almost always a measure of heightened uncertainty. But the universe of these securities is not huge, and while most securities do not act as a safe haven asset, they also introduce greater risk to the portfolio, which could therefore become more vulnerable to sharp fluctuations in market prices. A risk that should therefore be avoided in times that, like the current one, are not particularly conducive to investing in publicly traded securities. To erect the barricades of asset protection, many investors turn to precious metals such as gold and gold-backed securities, as these assets typically provide effective protection against headwinds during very uncertain economic times. There is no doubt that the current period is one of great uncertainty in the financial markets. This has its roots in global geopolitics, with tensions between the US-led western world on the one hand and Russia/China on the other hand bickering almost daily over various issues such as the war in Ukraine and Taiwan independence. The fact that this is also accompanied by higher than usual volatility is another argument for those who want to strengthen their securities portfolio through targeted investments, for example by being more dependent on changes in the gold price. The below chart from Investing.com shows that the curve of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a benchmark index used to measure the US stock market instability, is well above its long-term trend [the red line], indicating that US-listed stocks are seen fluctuating sharply rather than quietly. investing/indices/volatility-s-p-500 While the value of the index would have to rise above 30 for the volatility to be considered large, it is still true that the index is far from a value of 20, which would instead mean the opposite of market stability or stress-free times in the markets. Among Gold Stocks, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Could Rise Very Quickly When Gold Is in its Bull Market Many investors prefer to buy shares of US-listed gold producing and exploring companies over other gold-backed assets because gold stocks allow them to benefit much more from rising prices of the yellow metal during its bull markets. Among the gold stocks, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) would be ideal for those investors looking for the highest possible yield to get out of the rising commodity as this stock is proving to be much more volatile compared to gold. It works something like this: very simply, if an ounce of gold in the market rises or falls by $1, the market price of the shares of Harmony Gold will rise or fall by a significantly wider range, as can be intuitively inferred from the chart below. seekingalpha/symbol/HMY The above chart shows that there is much more affinity in terms of the development of the respective curves between Harmony Gold Mining and Gold Futures with maturities in December 2022 (GCZ2) than between Harmony Gold Mining and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), with the latter representing the US stock market. However, the chart also shows that Harmony Gold Mining's swings are simultaneously much larger than the gold futures (GCZ2) with December 2022 expirations. Because of this and other characteristics, investors are particularly attracted to Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, a South African gold mining company headquartered in Randfontein, a well-known gold prospecting location in West Rand, Gauteng Province, due to the gold mining activities that take place there. What Does Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Do? Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is engaged in gold exploration activities in South Africa and Papua New Guinea, as well as extraction and processing through milling equipment and ore separation technologies. In South Africa, the company notably operates nine underground deposits in the Witwatersrand Basin in Gauteng Province, manages an open pit mine in the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt in the North West Province and produces the precious metal from beneficiation of tailings across the country. The South African business segment accounts for 92% to 93% of total revenues. In Papua New Guinea, Harmony Gold Mining has interests in a gold and silver mine, called Hidden Valley, which extracts the precious metal through open pit techniques, and in the development of a gold mineral project, called Wafi-Golpu, located in Morobe Province. The Papua New Guinea business segment accounts for 7% to 8% of total revenues. The company is also exploring mineral deposits in search of silver and copper as well as uranium and molybdenum, but these activities are small-scale. Currently, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's business relies almost entirely on gold as a source of income and cash flow. Harmony Gold: Reserves and Latest Annual Operating and Financial Results The South African mining company's balance sheet depends on the price of the precious metal and the status of its mining operations. Of the total proven and probable mineral reserves of 39.8 million ounces of gold and gold equivalent [since Hidden Valley and Wafi-Golpu are currently mining other commodities as well], Harmony Gold mined 1.49 million ounces of gold in the fiscal year ended June 30, 2022 [down about 3.2% yoy], resulting in an all-in sustainable cost [AISC] of $1,709 per ounce [up about 17% yoy]. These reserves have the following gold concentrations in the mineral [6.4 grams per tonne of ore [g/t] from South African underground deposits, 0.26 g/t at surface activities and 0.68 to 1.65 g/t in Papua New Guinea]. At a gold price of $1,829 an ounce [up 6% YoY], Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited sold its produced gold tonnage and reported production profits of $628 million [down 19% YoY] and a total core net income of $0.33 per share [a decline of 49% compared to the previous year]. Despite a higher price, core profits have not increased as the company has produced less gold, which is also reflected in higher operating costs, although none of this surprised management. Production and costs were in line with forecasts. Operating costs were also impacted by certain expenses related to the construction of a technology that will enable the company's operations to run on electricity generated by absorbing and converting sunlight. These higher costs should normalize in the coming months due to an expected improvement in the concentration of the precious metal in the mineral, which could rise to 5.60 g/t in underground deposits in South Africa, from 5.37 g /t in 2022. If Harmony Gold exceeds this figure, the production and cost implications will be significant, as the underground mines in South Africa account for approximately 75% of the miner's total gold production. However, gold production for 2023 is expected to fluctuate between 1.4 million ounces and 1.5 million ounces. Harmony Gold Mining Company has its catalyst for an improvement in earnings, which would create a very strong reason for the stock price to rise in the US stock market. The point is that mining, which seems to be on track to become more and more efficient, is not crossing the path that rising gold prices would like. Gold Is Not In An Uptrend Due To Rising Interest Rates, But There Is A Glimpse Of A Favorable Scenario Gold, which has been in free fall since April with multiple dips, will likely continue this downtrend as long as the US Federal Reserve tightens its interest rate policy. This is illustrated in the chart below from Investing.com. investing/commodities/gold The letters P in the chart are the candlestick patterns that technical analysts at Investing.com believe have medium to high confidence in predicting a specific market change. The first P on August 15 shows "Engulfing Bearish", which is a key bearish reversal signal as the uptrend has definitely been disrupted by more and more bear trading. It had a medium reliability rating. The second P on August 22 indicates "Three Outside Down Bearish" and confirms the trend reversal due to bearish [the third candlestick] after the engulfed pattern [first two candlesticks]. It had a high-reliability rating. Return to the beginning of the paragraph. As interest rates rise, fixed income securities like bonds become much more interesting than before, attracting the attention of a larger investor audience, and climbing up the safe-haven hierarchy relative to gold. That's being forecast by analysts who expect gold - which is trading around $1,650 an ounce at the time of writing - to continue its current downtrend, bottoming at $1,602 in 52 weeks, under pressure from a strong US dollar currency and tighter monetary policy. However, there is a glimmer for gold to reverse the trend and provide Harmony Gold Mining with a new catalyst for a greater chance of a strong stock price recovery. The aim of the rate hike is to bring record inflation [8.3% in August 202] back to the 2% target, the level that will guarantee price stability provided employment remains as high as possible. And the US Federal Reserve will act until there are strong signals from the economy that the inflation problem is on the way to resolution. But unlike previous implementations of monetary tightening, this time the runaway inflation is not being driven by the rise in the demand for goods and services but by factors over which the central bank has no control, and those are the war in Ukraine and high energy costs.Seeking Alpha • Aug 30
Harmony Gold Mining GAAP EPS of -$0.08, revenue of $2.8B beats by $130M
Harmony Gold Mining press release (NYSE:HMY): FY GAAP EPS of -$0.08. Revenue of $2.8B (+3.3% Y/Y) beats by $130M. Shares -6.91% PM.Seeking Alpha • Jul 08
Harmony Gold: Needs Higher Gold Prices To Maintain Profitability
HMY gross margin of 23% is worrying given inflationary trends. A spike in costs on the front end in the absence of growing sales would hurt earnings badly. HMY shares are due for a bounce, but significant overhead resistance may cut the rally short. Intro If we pull up a chart of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY), we can see that shares over the past 15 weeks or so have lost close to 40% of their value. Concerning the near term, shares have managed to stay above their June lows, but the underlying trend continues to be bearish so investors have to be careful when timing an entry here. We state this because once shares lost their 200-day moving average back in early May, selling intensified to the downside. The selling eventually stopped at the 2021 lows, but shares have now a sizable amount of resistance to overcome before returning to bull mode once more. The trajectory of mining companies' share prices is closely linked with the prevailing price of the commodity that they mine. Shares of Harmony, for example, rallied aggressively above their 200-day moving average in February of this year when the price of gold rallied well above $2000 an ounce. Does this mean that the opposite (a weakening HMY share price) will continue to take place in a weakening gold price environment? This may very well be, but apart from the fact that higher costs on the front-end must be controlled to maximize margins, risk/reward plays always come down to the relationship between the stock's valuation and its inherent profitability. Here is how Harmony currently stacks up in these departments. Technical Chart Of Harmony Mining (Stockcharts.com) Many investors who invest in the gold mining space believe that inflation is good for mining companies, and it generally is. The problem, however, is that gold mining companies such as Harmony have high fixed costs (Harmony has already announced its solar intentions to combat electricity costs on the front-end) which inevitably get higher in inflationary periods. Investing in physical gold or an exchange-traded fund ("ETF") that tracks the gold spot price is an excellent inflation hedge, whereas a mining stock such as Harmony may not be shielded against rising prices as many may believe. Margin Pressure Why do we state this? Well when we look at Harmony's income statement over the past four quarters, things begin to get more transparent. Over the past four quarters, Harmony has generated almost $2.64 billion in sales, of which $609.6 million turned into gross profit. This gives the company a trailing twelve-month gross margin of 23.1%. This number is slightly below Harmony's 5-year average of 24.1% and significantly behind the sector's average gross margin of 32.4%. Harmony´s net profit of $119.2 million currently equates to a net profit margin of 4.52%, which again trails the sector (8.81%) by a significant margin. So all things remaining equal, Harmony's cost of revenue is roughly $0.77 for every $1 of product sold. Now, here is the kicker. Even if Harmony only realizes 5% inflation on costs on the front end over the next 12 months, and there is no change in the price of the metal Harmony sells, the company´s cost of goods sold will rise approximately 4% or $0.04 to $0.81 for every $1 of product sold. If the above scenario were to materialize, this trend would put sustained pressure on Harmony's earnings which may even mean we witness negative earnings for a period of time. The reason being is that the company's gross margins are simply not high enough, to begin with. The sector, however, which has higher average gross margins will not see the same adverse impact on its earnings over time because of its lower cost of goods sold, all things remaining equal.Seeking Alpha • Mar 21
Harmony Gold: Hidden Valley's Technical Issues Weighing On Guidance
Harmony Gold posted revenue of $1,431 million in H2 2021 (fiscal H1 2022) compared to $1,451 million in H2 2020. Production guidance for 2022 has been revised downward and is now estimated to be between 1.480 Moz and 1.560 Moz. I recommend buying HMY below $4.85.Seeking Alpha • Jan 08
Harmony Gold: First Quarter 2022 Production Analysis
On November 11, 2021, the company released a 2021 operational update for the three months ended September 30, 2021. Gold production is down 0.6% sequentially on revenues of $749.3 million. Hidden Valley continues to be impacted by COVID-19 related staffing issues. I recommend buying HMY at or below $3.50.Seeking Alpha • Jan 01
Harmony Gold: An Inferior Way To Buy The Dip
Harmony Gold is down more than 45% from its Q3 2020 highs, massively underperforming the Gold Miners Index. This sharp correction can be attributed to the company's industry-lagging margins, with Harmony announcing FY2022 guidance which projects operating costs above $1,540/oz. At a share price of $4.10 with annual EPS of $0.60, Harmony is cheap, but I would argue that it's cheap for a reason, and higher risk than its peers. Given that several high-quality names with industry-leading margins are also on sale and sitting near oversold levels, I see Harmony as an inferior way to buy the sector-wide dip.Seeking Alpha • Sep 03
Harmony Gold: Impressive Results While The Stock Price Underperforms
On August 31, 2021, the company released 2021 results ending June 30, 2021. Earnings per share increased by 699% to $0.60 from a net loss per share of $0.10 last year. Production for 2021 was impressive, with total gold production of 1,535,352 Au Oz up significantly from the preceding year. A final dividend of $0.018 per share declared or a total FY21 dividend yield of 2.4%. I recommend buying HMY at or below $3.50.Seeking Alpha • Jul 19
Harmony Gold: Old Faithful Is Looking Cheap Based On Fundamentals
The company is among the last remaining gold miners in a country that used to be a leader in the sector. Harmony looks cheap at the moment considering its vast gold reserves, strong operating cash flow, and low debt load. It plans to use today’s strong gold prices to strengthen its balance sheet and distribute small dividends, which I view as a prudent move.Estabilidad y crecimiento de los pagos
Obteniendo datos sobre dividendos
Dividendo estable: El pago de dividendos de HMY ha sido volátil en los últimos 10 años.
Dividendo creciente: El pago de dividendos de HMY ha aumentado en los últimos 10 años.
Rentabilidad por dividendo vs. Mercado
| Rentabilidad por dividendo de Harmony Gold Mining vs. Mercado |
|---|
| Segmento | Rentabilidad por dividendo |
|---|---|
| Empresa (HMY) | 1.8% |
| Suelo de mercado 25% (US) | 1.4% |
| Techo de mercado 25% (US) | 4.2% |
| Media de la industria (Metals and Mining) | 1.5% |
| Analista de previsiones (HMY) (hasta 3 años) | 8.1% |
Dividendo destacado: El dividendo de HMY(1.81%) es más alto que el 25% inferior de los pagadores de dividendos del mercado US (1.41%).
Alto dividendo: El (1.81%) del dividendo de HMY es bajo en comparación con el 25% de los principales pagadores de dividendos del mercado US (4.21%).
Pago de beneficios a los accionistas
Cobertura de los beneficios: Con su razonablemente bajo ratio de pago (26.2%), los pagos de dividendos de HMY están bien cubiertos por los beneficios.
Pago en efectivo a los accionistas
Cobertura de flujo de caja: Con su razonablemente bajo ratio de pago en efectivo (29.7%), los pagos de dividendos de HMY están bien cubiertos por los flujos de caja.
Descubre empresas que pagan buenos dividendos
Análisis de la empresa y estado de los datos financieros
| Datos | Última actualización (huso horario UTC) |
|---|---|
| Análisis de la empresa | 2026/05/11 16:16 |
| Precio de las acciones al final del día | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Beneficios | 2025/12/31 |
| Ingresos anuales | 2025/06/30 |
Fuentes de datos
Los datos utilizados en nuestro análisis de empresas proceden de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Los siguientes datos se utilizan en nuestro modelo de análisis para generar este informe. Los datos están normalizados, lo que puede introducir un retraso desde que la fuente está disponible.
| Paquete | Datos | Marco temporal | Ejemplo Fuente EE.UU. * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finanzas de la empresa | 10 años |
| |
| Estimaciones del consenso de analistas | +3 años |
|
|
| Precios de mercado | 30 años |
| |
| Propiedad | 10 años |
| |
| Gestión | 10 años |
| |
| Principales avances | 10 años |
|
* Ejemplo para valores de EE.UU., para no EE.UU. se utilizan formularios y fuentes normativas equivalentes.
A menos que se especifique lo contrario, todos los datos financieros se basan en un periodo anual, pero se actualizan trimestralmente. Esto se conoce como datos de los últimos doce meses (TTM) o de los últimos doce meses (LTM). Más información.
Modelo de análisis y copo de nieve
Los detalles del modelo de análisis utilizado para generar este informe están disponibles en nuestra página de Github, también tenemos guías sobre cómo utilizar nuestros informes y tutoriales en Youtube.
Conozca al equipo de talla mundial que diseñó y construyó el modelo de análisis Simply Wall St.
Métricas industriales y sectoriales
Simply Wall St calcula cada 6 horas nuestras métricas sectoriales y de sección. Los detalles de nuestro proceso están disponibles en Github.
Fuentes analistas
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited está cubierta por 15 analistas. 5 de esos analistas presentaron las estimaciones de ingresos o ganancias utilizadas como datos para nuestro informe. Las estimaciones de los analistas se actualizan a lo largo del día.
| Analista | Institución |
|---|---|
| Herbert Kharivhe | Absa Bank Limited |
| Andrew Byrne | Barclays |
| Raj Ray | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |