Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc.

Informe acción NasdaqGS:USAP

Capitalización de mercado: US$423.6m

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Dividendos y recompras

Dividendo controles de criterios 0/6

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products no tiene historial de pago de dividendo.

Información clave

n/a

Rentabilidad por dividendo

-0.4%

Rendimiento de la recompra

Rendimiento total para el accionista-0.4%
Rendimiento futuro de los dividendosn/a
Crecimiento de los dividendosn/a
Próxima fecha de pago de dividendosn/a
Fecha ex dividendon/a
Dividendo por acciónn/a
Ratio de pagon/a

Últimas actualizaciones de dividendos y recompras

No hay actualizaciones

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Oct 18

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Merger Arbitrage Play

Summary Recommend buying Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. shares due to a 2.5% merger-arbitrage opportunity with Aperam's $45/share all-cash acquisition deal, expected to close in Q1 '25. USAP's strong aerospace sector growth and improved profitability, with aEBITDA margins rising from 8% in FY22 to 22% in Q2 '24, suggest $45/share may be a low acquisition price. Despite potential CFIUS review risks, USAP's limited national security impact and Aperam's lack of US operations make antitrust approval likely. Valuing USAP at $65/share based on industry outlook and profitability, I see a significant upside even if the deal doesn't close; Aperam shares are not recommended on a bearish EU outlook. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 12

Universal Stainless: Aerospace Market Growth Remains Strong

Summary Universal Stainless has seen a 400% share price increase since December 2023, mainly driven by strong aerospace market growth. USAP's backlog has declined 16% YoY, potentially indicating future sales pressures, although I believe that improved lead times partly explain this reduction. Despite some headwinds, I expect continued aerospace demand and revenue growth, supported by positive cash flows and a continuous reduction in debt. Therefore, I maintain a Buy rating but will keep a close eye on insider buying activity and backlog trends throughout the rest of the year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Artículo de análisis • Aug 01

Subdued Growth No Barrier To Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. (NASDAQ:USAP) With Shares Advancing 33%

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. ( NASDAQ:USAP ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 33...
Artículo de análisis • Jul 17

Investors Will Want Universal Stainless & Alloy Products' (NASDAQ:USAP) Growth In ROCE To Persist

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...
Seeking Alpha • Jun 18

Universal Stainless Getting Its Due As Aerospace Demand Drives Strong Operating Leverage

Summary Strong aerospace demand and a positive mix shift have driven strong capacity utilization growth, revenue growth, operating leverage, and margin improvement at Universal Stainless & Alloy Products. The aerospace market remains strong with significant production growth expected from major OEMs like Airbus and Boeing over the next three years. Other end-markets aren't so healthy, including heavy machinery, short-cycle industrials, and oil/gas, and see risks to USAP's pricing if this weakness worsens. I expect at least a few strong earnings and FCF years from USAP, and can argue for a mid-$30s fair value without further beat-and-raise quarters, but this is still a cyclical business with a spotty long-term history of value creation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 12

Universal Stainless: It Was Profitable In 2023 Due To High Prices, But This Is Not Sustainable

Summary Universal Stainless is a cyclical company facing declining shipments as well as cyclical and declining returns. The decline in shipment volume suggests that USAP may have lost market share. The company's performance from 2012 to 2023 showed minimal growth in revenue and negative returns on equity and assets. There is no margin of safety based on its cyclical performance. The market is pricing USAP as if the past 2 years' product prices are sustainable and not cyclical. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 26

Universal Stainless Is Not Attractive On A Cycle-Average Basis

Summary Universal Stainless has seen its stock price more than double due to increased output, utilization, and profitability. The company's recent results show record revenues, improved gross margins, and a reduction in working capital debt. USAP's management is optimistic about the aerospace industry cycle and has invested in new melting furnaces to increase production. However, the company's competitors have a history of experiencing crashes in revenues, profitability, and stock prices after periods of rapid growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Artículo de análisis • Nov 23

These Return Metrics Don't Make Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) Look Too Strong

When researching a stock for investment, what can tell us that the company is in decline? A business that's potentially...
Artículo de análisis • Oct 27

Here's Why Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Artículo de análisis • Jun 21

Does Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Artículo de análisis • Mar 01

Is Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) Using Too Much Debt?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 19

Universal Stainless expects Q3 sales to fall 12% sequentially on lower shipment volume

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) said Wednesday it expects to report Q3 net sales of $46.2M, down 12% sequentially but 24% higher Y/Y, as shipment volume was ~20% lower sequentially. Premium alloy sales are expected to account for 17% of total sales. Universal Stainless (USAP) expects to report Q3 net loss of ~$0.14/share vs. net loss of $0.16/share in Q2. Lower shipment volume was due to residual effects of the liquid metal spill in Q2, ongoing labor and supply chain issues causing intermittent production outages, and a spike in COVID-19 cases at its test labs late last month. Also, a sharp decline in commodity prices in recent months resulted in a negative misalignment between product surcharges and material costs totaling ~$1.5M. "We are disappointed that operational setbacks prevented us from reaching our goals for the quarter, even as our backlog reached a new record of $246M at the end of Q3," said CEO Dennis Oates.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 24

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Ignored On The Runway As Business Starts To Take Off

Summary Universal Stainless & Alloy has continued to lag other specialty material producers despite a growth in orders, backlog, and margins, ahead of a more significant ramp in production/shipment volumes. Aerospace is leading the charge, and USAP is effectively booked out through the third quarter of 2023 and looking to increase capacity of higher-value materials. I expect USAP to see revenue double from 2021 to 2025, and there could be greater long-term upside if aircraft production stays stronger for longer. I believe USAP should be trading in the low-to-mid teens given EBITDA growth prospects over the next two to three years. The last six months or so have been increasingly frustrating as an observer and analyst of Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (USAP) (“Universal Stainless”). Other providers of alloys and specialty materials to the aerospace industry have seen their share prices outperform Universal Stainless, ATI (ATI) in particular, but Universal Stainless has been frustratingly weak since my last update despite improving orders, pricing, and margins. Given aircraft production schedules and guidance from major OEMs like Airbus (EADSY) and Boeing (BA), I believe USAP is about to see a significant ramp in revenue and expansion in margins. On top of that, the company is poised to benefit from recovering oil/gas activity, as well as efforts to upgrade the product portfolio (including participating in “hot side” engine components). Even at a significant multiple discount to ATI or Carpenter (CRS), I see upside into the low-to-mid teens as USAP delivers on the growing demand from aerospace customers. Readers should note that USAP is very small (less than $100M in market cap), fairly illiquid (fewer than 20K shares traded per day, on average), and not followed by Wall Street analysts. Consequently, it’s fair to assume that this is a riskier stock. Orders Growing, Volumes Starting To Ramp Universal Stainless was held back, at least in part, in the second quarter by an accident (a metal spill), but there is growing evidence of building momentum. Even with the accident, volume increased 1% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter, and management is working all out to increase production volumes. Things as they are, management has quoted lead-times out to the third quarter of next year for new orders. At the same time, orders continue to roll in as aerospace companies scramble to get the materials they need to meet the growing demand of major OEMs like Airbus and Boeing, as well as bizjet OEMs like Textron (TXT) (the bizjet/regional market has been quite strong of late too). Backlog rose 125% yoy and 10% qoq in the second quarter, and USAP continues to see higher-margin premium products creep up as a percentage of that backlog (now at 26%) versus a Q2’22 revenue mix that favored lower-margin specialty alloys to a level of more than 80%. Aerospace sales rose 67% yoy and 19% qoq in the second quarter (making up 68% of revenue), but are still over a quarter below the most recent peak for the company. That growth is at least directionally consistent with what others like ATI, Carpenter, Hexcel (HXL), and Materion (MTRN) are seeing, and the general expectation is that OEM build-rates will continue to grow from here, particularly when widebody builds recover in late FY’23/2024. Other markets are showing more mixed performance. Although oil prices have eased off some, offshore exploration activity is picking up and that’s good for USAP’s oil/gas business (revenue was up 21% yoy and 7% qoq in the second quarter). Heavy industry and general industry were surprisingly weak in the quarter, though, (down 11% qoq and 35% qoq, respectively), and while quarterly volatility is not new or rare in these markets, I wonder if this is a byproduct of companies becoming more cautious on building inventories on concerns of slowing demand. I’m not sure, but it’s worth watching as a possible leading indicator. With a capacity-constrained industry, pricing should also be healthy. Most of USAP’s second quarter pricing leverage came from material pass-throughs (nickel and so on), but base prices were still 6% higher than in the year-ago period, and I would expect further pricing moves as the backlog fills. Self-Help Could Make A Difference As I’ve written in prior pieces, USAP’s buy-and-hold credentials are poor. This is a company that generated zero net free cash flow from 2006 to 2021 (the best year was +$25M, the worst was -$29M), and they’re not especially well-placed on the spectrum of specialty materials companies. As I mentioned above, the company is only just now offering products that could be used in the hot side of engines, and their products have generally skewed to lower-spec, lower-margin categories. Management is working on this. The company now has products for engine hot-side use, though it will take time to get those qualified in by customers. In the most recent update, the company noted 9 net new customer approvals since Q2’20 (54 since 2016), 2 new product introductions (from 17 in Q2'20 to 19), and 19 products under development exiting the quarter. At the same time, the company has been selectively pruning away lower-value commodity products and continuing to reinvest in production capacity for premium alloys (including new vacuum melt furnaces). The Outlook Based on healthy trends year-to-date, as well as that swelling backlog, I’ve increased my modeling estimates. I was a bit below $200M for ’22 revenue, but I’ve moved up to over $220M, with better than 20% growth on top of that in ’23 and high single-digit growth in ’24. I’m a little concerned that I’ve gone too far too fast for ’23 (management has guided to “$200M-plus revenue), particularly if the price of commodities like nickel back off, but I also think I may be too low for ’25 revenue. Given under-absorption of overhead, a sharp upturn in revenue will drive a strong improvement in gross margin. That’s already in process, as adjusted gross margin more than doubled in Q2 to 12.6%, and I expect full-year gross margin above 12% with improvement over the next four years. My EBITDA estimates have moved from a little over $22M to $24M for FY’22 and to over $35M for FY’23. For free cash flow, working capital needs and capex have led me to reverse expected positive free cash flow to a smallish deficit in FY’22 (around $7M), but flip an expected deficit in FY’23 to over $20M in positive free cash flow.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products GAAP EPS of -$0.16 misses by $0.05, revenue of $52.16M

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products press release (NASDAQ:USAP): Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.16 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $52.16M (+35.5% Y/Y). Quarter-end Backlog reaches new record of $222.7 million, up 10% from record Q1 2022, up 125% from Q2 2021. Q2 2022 Gross margin rises to 9.1% of sales. Gross margin is 12.6% of sales excluding AMJP grant benefit and charges incurred from liquid metal spill. Q2 2022 EBITDA increases to $4.3 million; Adjusted EBITDA increases to $6.4 million.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 11

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products raises base price 9%-12% on bar products

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) announced Monday a base price increase of 9% to 12% on bar products, effective immediately. That follows the last base price increase of 3% to 10% announced in March on bar products. "We are in an environment that has brought sharp inflationary cost increases to nearly all areas of our business, and it is necessary for us to adjust our pricing to keep up with this higher cost burden. We will continue to take the actions necessary to manage our organization and maintain our class leading customer service levels and exceptional production quality standard," commented USAP EVP and CCO Chris Zimmer.  Earlier: Universal Stainless & Alloy Products GAAP EPS of -$0.18, revenue of $47.56M beats by $1.18M
Artículo de análisis • Apr 20

A Look At The Fair Value Of Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. (NASDAQ:USAP)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 04

With Aerospace Recovering, Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Should See A Meaningful Ramp

USAP reported improving revenue and margins in the fourth quarter, as the aerospace inventory correction cycle is over and companies are looking to increase build rates. USAP generates around 60% of revenue from the aerospace market, the backlog is growing, and management is looking to add two more VIM furnaces to increase its premium alloy capacity. The long-term track record here doesn't make this a quality buy-and-hold name, but the leverage to the aerospace recovery cycle should support a higher stock price.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 04

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products: The Turnaround Begins

The company's sales declined sharply in 2020 and 2021 due to headwinds in the aerospace industry. Gross profit margins are recovering rapidly and recent base price increases should keep margins expanding even more. The company is about to reach profitability again. Volumes should increase soon as the aerospace industry rebounds. The risk/reward balance turns in favor for the investor.
Seeking Alpha • Oct 15

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products: Aerospace Recovery Play Trading At Liquidation Value

USAP is positioned to benefit from an aerospace recovery and supply chain restocking cycle, which should produce significant cash flow leverage over the next several years. The equity is trading only modestly above the liquidation value of its inventory, and at a substantial discount to tangible book value. A below peer 7x EBITDA multiple implies USAP would be valued 60% higher, with a return to its historic tangible book value of 1.2x, valuing the company +3x at $30.
Artículo de análisis • Oct 15

Is Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) Using Debt Sensibly?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 13

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Still Offers Significant Leverage To Improving Alloy Demand

Universal's business appears to have bottomed, with the company returning to positive gross margin and posting a second consecutive quarter of sequential revenue and backlog growth. Aerospace is still well off pre-pandemic norms, but flight hours are improving, destocking seems to largely be over, and aircraft production targets are moving back up. Universal shares offer a leveraged play on specialty stainless steel demand growth, but it is not really suitable for a buy-and-hold investor.
Artículo de análisis • Mar 30

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) Is Carrying A Fair Bit Of Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...

Estabilidad y crecimiento de los pagos

Obteniendo datos sobre dividendos

Dividendo estable: No hay datos suficientes para determinar si los dividendos por acción de USAP han sido estables en el pasado.

Dividendo creciente: Datos insuficientes para determinar si los pagos de dividendos de USAP han aumentado.

Rentabilidad por dividendo vs. Mercado

Rentabilidad por dividendo de Universal Stainless & Alloy Products vs. Mercado
¿Cómo se compara la rentabilidad por dividendo de USAP con la del mercado?
SegmentoRentabilidad por dividendo
Empresa (USAP)n/a
Suelo de mercado 25% (US)1.4%
Techo de mercado 25% (US)4.2%
Media de la industria (Metals and Mining)1.5%
Analista de previsiones (USAP) (hasta 3 años)n/a

Dividendo destacado: No es posible evaluar la rentabilidad por dividendo de USAP en comparación con el 25% inferior de los pagadores de dividendos, ya que la empresa no ha comunicado ningún pago reciente.

Alto dividendo: No es posible evaluar la rentabilidad por dividendo de USAP en comparación con el 25% de los principales pagadores de dividendos, ya que la empresa no ha comunicado ningún pago reciente.

Pago de beneficios a los accionistas

Cobertura de los beneficios: No hay datos suficientes para calcular el ratio de pago de USAP para determinar si sus pagos de dividendos están cubiertos por los beneficios.

Pago en efectivo a los accionistas

Cobertura de flujo de caja: No es posible calcular la sostenibilidad de los dividendos, ya que USAP no ha comunicado ningún pago.

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Análisis de la empresa y estado de los datos financieros

DatosÚltima actualización (huso horario UTC)
Análisis de la empresa2025/01/24 06:08
Precio de las acciones al final del día2025/01/22 00:00
Beneficios2024/09/30
Ingresos anuales2023/12/31

Fuentes de datos

Los datos utilizados en nuestro análisis de empresas proceden de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Los siguientes datos se utilizan en nuestro modelo de análisis para generar este informe. Los datos están normalizados, lo que puede introducir un retraso desde que la fuente está disponible.

PaqueteDatosMarco temporalEjemplo Fuente EE.UU. *
Finanzas de la empresa10 años
  • Cuenta de resultados
  • Estado de tesorería
  • Balance
Estimaciones del consenso de analistas+3 años
  • Previsiones financieras
  • Objetivos de precios de los analistas
Precios de mercado30 años
  • Precios de las acciones
  • Dividendos, escisiones y acciones
Propiedad10 años
  • Accionistas principales
  • Información privilegiada
Gestión10 años
  • Equipo directivo
  • Consejo de Administración
Principales avances10 años
  • Anuncios de empresas

* Ejemplo para valores de EE.UU., para no EE.UU. se utilizan formularios y fuentes normativas equivalentes.

A menos que se especifique lo contrario, todos los datos financieros se basan en un periodo anual, pero se actualizan trimestralmente. Esto se conoce como datos de los últimos doce meses (TTM) o de los últimos doce meses (LTM). Más información.

Modelo de análisis y copo de nieve

Los detalles del modelo de análisis utilizado para generar este informe están disponibles en nuestra página de Github, también tenemos guías sobre cómo utilizar nuestros informes y tutoriales en Youtube.

Conozca al equipo de talla mundial que diseñó y construyó el modelo de análisis Simply Wall St.

Métricas industriales y sectoriales

Simply Wall St calcula cada 6 horas nuestras métricas sectoriales y de sección. Los detalles de nuestro proceso están disponibles en Github.

Fuentes analistas

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. está cubierta por 5 analistas. 0 de esos analistas presentaron las estimaciones de ingresos o ganancias utilizadas como datos para nuestro informe. Las estimaciones de los analistas se actualizan a lo largo del día.

AnalistaInstitución
Michael GalloCL King & Associates, Inc.
Philip GibbsKeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.
Christopher OlinRosenblatt Securities Inc.