Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 10
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥823, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Software industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 53% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥654 per share. Announcement • May 14
Appier Group, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2026 Appier Group, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the second quarter of 2026. For the quarter, Appier is signaling a bolstered outlook, reflecting increased confidence in its growth trajectory, with revenue projected to reach JPY 12.5 billion - JPY 12.7 billion, surpassing the initial forecast. The company also expects a significant step-up in profitability, with Second Quarter operating income projected at JPY 1.0 billion - JPY 1.2 billion, ahead of the initial forecast. This accelerated profit growth is driven by the impact of expanding operating leverage reinforced by the scalable deployment of Agentic AI solutions. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥0.68 (vs JP¥0.34 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥0.68 (up from JP¥0.34 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥12.1b (up 29% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥69.0m (up 97% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 0.6% (up from 0.4% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 07
Price target decreased by 35% to JP¥880 Down from JP¥1,353, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥886. Stock is down 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥39.95 for next year compared to JP¥25.14 last year. Announcement • Apr 07
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on May 13, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 01
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥855, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Software industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 45% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥541 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 17
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to JP¥730, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Software industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 59% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥533 per share. Announcement • Mar 11
Appier Research Unveils Agentic AI Breakthrough: A Risk-Aware Decision Framework Appier announced new research advancing the reliability of Agentic AI systems. To expand the impact of its research and development efforts, Appier's AI research team continues to focus on frontier topics in Agentic AI and Large Language Models (LLMs), exploring forward-looking technical challenges that push the boundaries of marketing technology innovation. The research addresses a key challenge in deploying Agentic AI in enterprise environments: ensuring that autonomous AI decisions are trustworthy. The findings further strengthen Appier's technological leadership in AI while contributing practical insights for the broader Agentic AI ecosystem. As an AI-native Agentic AI-as-a-Service (AaaS) company, Appier continues to translate cutting-edge research into enterprise-ready methodologies and product capabilities. This study specifically addresses two major enterprise concerns: AI hallucinations and decision reliability. To tackle this challenge, the research introduces a Risk-Aware Decision-Making framework that converts LLM decisions across varying risk conditions into quantifiable metrics, providing a stronger governance foundation for enterprise AI deployment. Turning Risk-Aware Strategies into Quantifiable Metrics: Traditional LLM evaluations focus primarily on whether an answer is correct. In enterprise environments, however, the cost of being wrong and the value of refusing to answer differ significantly. The study introduces structured risk parameters—including rewards for correct answers, penalties for incorrect responses, and costs for refusal—to simulate different risk scenarios. Under this framework, models must evaluate their capability, confidence level, and risk conditions before deciding whether to answer, refuse, or guess. Decision quality is then measured by whether the model maximizes expected reward, providing a more realistic assessment of strategic decision-making; Key Finding: Strategic Imbalance in Existing Models: Using the Risk-Aware Decision-Making framework, the research finds that many leading LLMs display strategic imbalance across risk scenarios. In high-risk settings, models often over-guess despite potential negative consequences. In low-risk scenarios, they may become overly conservative and refuse to answer too frequently. This inconsistency limits both the autonomy and safety of AI systems in enterprise environments. The study suggests the issue is not purely knowledge-related but stems from the model's difficulty in integrating multiple capabilities into a stable decision strategy; Skill Decomposition Enables More Optimal Decisions: To address this challenge, the research proposes a Skill Decomposition approach, breaking decision-making into three steps: Task Execution — solving the task to generate an initial answer; Confidence Estimation — evaluating confidence in that answer; Expected-Value Reasoning — reasoning about outcomes under risk conditions. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 20
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 27% After last week's 27% share price decline to JP¥699, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Software industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 59% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥956 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 19
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 31% to JP¥748. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥961, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 26% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 73%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 18% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 33% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Feb 16
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (5.8% net profit margin). New Risk • Feb 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 5.8% Last year net profit margin: 8.6% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.4% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (5.8% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥25.14 (down from JP¥28.70 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥43.7b (up 28% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥2.56b (down 13% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 5.8% (down from 8.6% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 20%. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 73% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jan 07
Price target decreased by 17% to JP¥1,755 Down from JP¥2,104, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 58% above last closing price of JP¥1,113. Stock is down 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥32.68 for next year compared to JP¥28.70 last year. Announcement • Dec 24
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 13, 2026 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results on Feb 13, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥2.25 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2025. Payment date: 13 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 6.1% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.2%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.7%). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 08
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 25% to JP¥1,226. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,022, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 27% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 20% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 31% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥10.50 (vs JP¥7.97 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥10.50 (up from JP¥7.97 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥11.4b (up 26% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥1.07b (up 31% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.4% (up from 9.0% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 17
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥1,010, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22x. Average forward P/E is 23x in the Software industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 38% over the past three years. Announcement • Sep 23
Appier Announces Full Product Line Infused with Agentic AI, Ushering in a New Era of ROI Driven Marketing Solutions Appier announced the infusion of Agentic AI across its entire product portfolio and the launch of eight purpose built AI Agents. Designed to help advertisers and marketers deliver predictable ROI, the new suite redefines how data and AI power every stage of the customer journey. Unlike one off task automation, Appier's Agents combine predictive insights with industry best practices to coordinate end to end actions, accelerating time to ROI and driving measurable business impact. Built on its vision of "One Data. One Experience. One Agentic World,"Appier outlined the roadmap for its AI Agents. The new framework reimagines how data is collected and activated, instantly connecting, unifying and operationalizing fragmented datasets to surface real time market shifts and enable autonomous, adaptive and intelligent omnichannel marketing. With AI Agents, brands gain a 24/7 autonomous marketing partner that supports teams from strategy through execution, helping them overcome legacy constraints and make clearer, more confident decisions. Appier's eight upgraded AI Agents span three product lines: Advertising Cloud (Coding Agent, Director Agent, ROI Agent), Personalization Cloud (Sales Agent, Campaign Agent, Service Agent), and Data Cloud (Audience Agent, Insight Agent). Built with deep industry expertise, these Agents train on each brand's proprietary knowledge to create predictive models that turn data into predictable revenue and returns. Paired with 24/7 self learning and automated optimization, they deliver hyper personalized engagement at scale. As these Agents interconnect, enterprises can establish seamless agentic workflows that further improve precision and efficiency while simplifying business outcomes. Announcement • Sep 19
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 14, 2025 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 14, 2025 New Risk • Aug 19
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 23% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (23% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Declared Dividend • Aug 16
Dividend increased to JP¥2.25 Dividend of JP¥2.25 is 13% higher than last year. Ex-date: 29th December 2025 Payment date: 13th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 0.1%, which is lower than the industry average of 1.4%. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥5.48 (vs JP¥3.62 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥5.48 (up from JP¥3.62 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥10.3b (up 27% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥557.0m (up 51% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.4% (up from 4.5% in 2Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 102% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jun 27
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 14, 2025 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 20
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥0.34 (vs JP¥0.56 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥0.34 (down from JP¥0.56 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥9.35b (up 27% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥35.0m (down 39% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.4% (down from 0.8% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.9% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 113% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥1,067, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 27x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Software industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 7.3% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Apr 05
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥28.70 (up from JP¥9.85 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥34.1b (up 29% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥2.93b (up 192% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.6% (up from 3.8% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 44%. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10.0% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 123% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Apr 02
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 15, 2025 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 15, 2025 Announcement • Mar 21
Appier Group, Inc. (TSE:4180) acquired AdCreative.ai SAS. Appier Group, Inc. (TSE:4180) agreed to acquire AdCreative.ai SAS for $38.7 million on February 12, 2025. As part of consideration, $38.7 million is paid towards common equity of AdCreative.ai SAS. The transaction is expected to close on March 4, with no material impact on Appier's consolidated financial results for FY24.
Appier Group, Inc. (TSE:4180) completed the acquisition of AdCreative.ai SAS on March 19, 2025. Fabien Billet, Christophe Cussaguet and Mathilde Robelin of Walter Billet Avocats acted as legal advisor for AdCreative.ai and its shareholders. Raphaël Bloch and Martin Borey of K&L Gates acted as legal advisor for Appier Group, Inc. Eyal Lavin and Victoire Gallerne of Chausson Finance SA acted as financial advisor for the sellers. Nate Jackson of Two Roads Advisors LLC acted as financial advisor for the sellers. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 03
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥1,437, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Software industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 62% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥28.70 (up from JP¥9.85 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥34.1b (up 29% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥2.93b (up 192% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.6% (up from 3.8% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 44%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 123% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 16
Appier Group, Inc. Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2025 Appier Group, Inc. provided consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025. For the year, the company expects revenue of JPY 45,467 million, operating income of JPY 4,051 million, net income of JPY 3,576 million and basic earnings per share of JPY 35.00. Announcement • Feb 15
Appier Group, Inc. Provides Dividend Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2025 Appier Group, Inc. provided dividend guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025. For the year, the company expects dividend of JPY 2.25 per share compared to JPY 2.00 per share a year ago. New Risk • Feb 14
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.5% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Jan 09
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Feb 14, 2025 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Feb 14, 2025 Price Target Changed • Dec 10
Price target decreased by 8.4% to JP¥2,113 Down from JP¥2,308, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 58% above last closing price of JP¥1,334. Stock is down 8.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥21.56 for next year compared to JP¥9.85 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥7.97 (vs JP¥2.96 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥7.97 (up from JP¥2.96 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥9.05b (up 28% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥814.0m (up 170% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 9.0% (up from 4.3% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 124% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Nov 14
Appier Group, Inc. Revises First Dividend Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2024 Appier Group, Inc. revised first dividend guidance for the year ending December 31, 2024. The company revised first dividend guidance of JPY 2.00 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024 at the meeting of the Board of Directors dated as of November 14, 2024. Reasons for the Revision: The company recognize that the shareholder return is an important management objective and have considered it, including dividends and share buybacks, taking into account the company's financial results, financial position and core free cash flow (Note). On August 14, 2024, the company decided to acquire treasury shares for the first time since the IPO. The company have made steady progress for both revenue and profit against the company's full-year guidance as in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 financial results announced on November 14, 2024 and expect the core free cash flow for fiscal year 2024 to improve from the previous fiscal year. Accordingly, the company decided to revise the company's year-end dividend forecast for fiscal year 2024 as the company's first dividend payment since the IPO, after the comprehensive consideration of capital needs, including investments for business growth such as R&D for future growth and M&A, as well as the need to enhance retained earnings. Announcement • Sep 27
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 12, 2024 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 12, 2024 Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥3.61 (vs JP¥1.13 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥3.61 (up from JP¥1.13 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥8.15b (up 32% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥369.0m (up 221% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.5% (up from 1.9% in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 124% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Aug 15
Appier Group, Inc. (TSE:4180) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,000,000 shares, representing 0.98% for ¥1,000 million. Appier Group, Inc. (TSE:4180) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 1,000,000 shares, representing 0.98% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury stock), for ¥1,000 million. The purpose of the program is to improve capital efficiency and expand shareholder returns to further enhance our corporate value in addition to continuous investments in growth. The program will run until December 31, 2024. As of June 30, 2024, the company had 102,086,229 shares in issue (excluding treasury stock) and 257 shares in treasury. Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥0.56 (vs JP¥0.33 loss in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥0.56 (up from JP¥0.33 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥7.37b (up 33% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥57.0m (up JP¥90.0m from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.8% (up from net loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 120% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Mar 29
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 14, 2024 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 14, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Feb 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥35.0b to JP¥34.4b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥25.06 per share to JP¥21.68 per share. Net income forecast to grow 121% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Software industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥2,540 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 3.0% to JP¥1,804 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥9.85 (up from JP¥0.21 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥26.4b (up 36% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥1.00b (up JP¥980.0m from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.8% (up from 0.1% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Announcement • Feb 14
Appier Group, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024 Appier Group, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024. Announcement • Dec 30
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 14, 2024 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Feb 14, 2024 Price Target Changed • Dec 28
Price target increased by 9.2% to JP¥2,540 Up from JP¥2,325, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 38% above last closing price of JP¥1,847. Stock is up 33% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥7.52 for next year compared to JP¥0.21 last year. Buying Opportunity • Nov 17
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 2.1%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥1,983, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 37% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 20% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 46% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Nov 15
Appier Group, Inc. Revises Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2023 Appier Group, Inc. revised consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2023. For the period, the company now expects revenue of JPY 26,195 million against previous guidance of JPY 25,454 million. Operating income of JPY 704 million against previous guidance of JPY 535 million. Net income of JPY 771 million against previous guidance of JPY 718 million. Basic earnings per share of JPY 7.57 against previous guidance of JPY 7.07. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥2.97 (vs JP¥0.54 loss in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥2.97 (up from JP¥0.54 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.08b (up 39% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥302.0m (up JP¥357.0m from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from net loss in 3Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. New Risk • Oct 25
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.5% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.5% average weekly change). High level of non-cash earnings (27% accrual ratio). Board Change • Oct 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 8 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Outside Director Brett Ho was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥25.7b to JP¥26.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥6.81 to JP¥7.51 per share. Net income forecast to grow 389% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Software industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,900 to JP¥2,233. Share price was steady at JP¥1,748 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 11
Price target increased by 9.8% to JP¥2,050 Up from JP¥1,867, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 23% above last closing price of JP¥1,672. Stock is up 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥6.79 for next year compared to JP¥0.21 last year. Announcement • Aug 27
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 13, 2023 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 13, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥1.12 (vs JP¥1.84 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥1.12 (up from JP¥1.84 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥6.17b (up 42% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥114.0m (up JP¥300.0m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.8% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Announcement • May 28
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 14, 2023 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 14, 2023 Announcement • May 17
Appier Group, Inc. Provides Consolidated Earnings Forecast for the Year Ending December 31, 2023 Appier Group, Inc. provided consolidated earnings forecast for the year ending December 31, 2023. For the year, the company expected revenue of JPY 25,454 million, Operating Income of JPY 535 million, Net income and Net income attributable to owners of the parent company of JPY 718 million and Basic earnings per share of JPY 7.07. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 156% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥24.8b to JP¥25.6b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥2.60 to JP¥6.67 per share. Net income forecast to grow 3,058% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Software industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥1,867 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 7.0% to JP¥1,561 over the past week. Announcement • Feb 15
Appier Group, Inc. Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending December 31, 2023 Appier Group, Inc. provided consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending December 31, 2023. For the period, the company now expects revenue of JPY 25,454 million. Operating loss of JPY 535 million, Net loss of JPY 718million. Net loss attributable to owners of the parent company of JPY 718 million. Basic loss per share of JPY 7.07. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥0.21 (up from JP¥11.96 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥19.4b (up 53% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥21.3m (up JP¥1.20b from FY 2021). Profit margin: 0.1% (up from net loss in FY 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Price Target Changed • Feb 04
Price target increased by 18% to JP¥1,867 Up from JP¥1,583, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥1,843. Stock is up 76% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥1.81 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥11.96 last year. Price Target Changed • Jan 30
Price target increased by 12% to JP¥1,683 Up from JP¥1,500, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 7.6% above last closing price of JP¥1,564. Stock is up 61% over the past year. The company posted a net loss per share of JP¥11.96 last year. Announcement • Jan 06
Appier Group, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 13, 2023 Appier Group, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Feb 13, 2023