Major Estimate Revision • May 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from ر.س11.5b to ر.س11.1b. EPS estimate also fell from ر.س0.278 per share to ر.س0.242 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 2.1% next year vs 10% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia . Consensus price target down from ر.س7.22 to ر.س6.85. Share price was steady at ر.س5.93 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.06 (vs ر.س0.085 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: ر.س0.06 (down from ر.س0.085 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: ر.س2.97b (down 5.5% from 1Q 2025). Net income: ر.س53.7m (down 30% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 2.4% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 25% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • May 13
Fourth quarter dividend of ر.س0.06 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ر.س0.06. Ex-date: 31st May 2026 Payment date: 17th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 6.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (148% earnings payout ratio). However, it is covered by cash flows (86% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 17% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 64% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 19% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from ر.س0.343 to ر.س0.277 per share. Revenue forecast steady at ر.س11.5b. Net income forecast to shrink 0.8% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س7.69. Share price was steady at ر.س6.23 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 15
Now 20% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at ر.س6.27. The fair value is estimated to be ر.س5.21, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 42%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.2% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 17% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Apr 01
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: ر.س0.28 (down from ر.س0.57 in FY 2024). Revenue: ر.س11.1b (up 3.5% from FY 2024). Net income: ر.س250.1m (down 51% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 2.3% (down from 4.8% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 9.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 42% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 22% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Mar 25
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company(SASE:4001) dropped from FTSE All-World Index (USD) Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company(SASE:4001) dropped from FTSE All-World Index (USD) Declared Dividend • Mar 18
Third quarter dividend of ر.س0.06 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ر.س0.06. Ex-date: 29th March 2026 Payment date: 9th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 6.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (88% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (85% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 19% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 19% over the next 2 years. Since a fall of 2.5% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. New Risk • Mar 17
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Announcement • Mar 17
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announces Quarterly dividend, payable on April 09, 2026 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announced Quarterly dividend of SAR 0.0600 per share payable on April 09, 2026, ex-date on March 29, 2026 and record date on March 30, 2026. New Risk • Nov 25
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 19
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.12 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 November 2025. Payment date: 15 December 2025. Payout ratio and cash payout ratio are on the higher end at 88% and 85% respectively. Trailing yield: 6.9%. Within top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (5.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.0%). Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.019 (vs ر.س0.077 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: ر.س0.019 (down from ر.س0.077 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: ر.س2.71b (up 5.8% from 3Q 2024). Net income: ر.س17.5m (down 75% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.6% (down from 2.7% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.1% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 18% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 23
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.12 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 August 2025. Payment date: 17 September 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 64% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 4.8%. Lower than top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (5.3%). In line with average of industry peers (4.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from ر.س0.454 to ر.س0.406. Revenue forecast unchanged from ر.س11.1b at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 15% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س9.00. Share price rose 3.9% to ر.س7.71 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.05 (vs ر.س0.05 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: ر.س0.05 (in line with 2Q 2024). Revenue: ر.س2.54b (up 2.9% from 2Q 2024). Net income: ر.س41.1m (down 5.0% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.6% (down from 1.8% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.1% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 15% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Aug 08
Dividend of ر.س0.12 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ر.س0.12. Ex-date: 28th August 2025 Payment date: 17th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (72% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (107% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 19% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 14% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 20% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 23% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from ر.س0.624 to ر.س0.478 per share. Revenue forecast steady at ر.س11.2b. Net income forecast to grow 15% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س9.70. Share price was steady at ر.س8.03 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • May 28
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 01 June 2025. Payment date: 25 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 72% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 5.1%. Lower than top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.2%). New Risk • May 19
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (107% cash payout ratio). Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.08 (vs ر.س0.13 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: ر.س0.08 (down from ر.س0.13 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: ر.س3.13b (up 3.1% from 1Q 2024). Net income: ر.س76.4m (down 35% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.4% (down from 3.9% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.1% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 10% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • May 15
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, Jun 15, 2025 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, Jun 15, 2025, at 19:30 Arab Standard Time. Location: riyadh Saudi Arabia Declared Dividend • May 14
Dividend of ر.س0.11 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ر.س0.11. Ex-date: 1st June 2025 Payment date: 25th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (72% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (116% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 19% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 14% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 20% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. New Risk • Apr 23
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (153% cash payout ratio). Upcoming Dividend • Apr 02
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 09 April 2025. Payment date: 23 April 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 67% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 6.1%. Within top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (4.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.4%). Announcement • Mar 26
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announces Quarterly dividend, payable on April 23, 2025 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announced Quarterly dividend of SAR 0.1100 per share payable on April 23, 2025, ex-date on April 09, 2025 and record date on April 10, 2025. Price Target Changed • Mar 05
Price target decreased by 9.3% to ر.س10.89 Down from ر.س12.00, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 8.7% above last closing price of ر.س10.02. Stock is down 26% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ر.س0.56 for next year compared to ر.س0.58 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 27
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from ر.س0.48 to ر.س0.543. Revenue forecast steady at ر.س11.5b. Net income forecast to grow 22% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س11.91. Share price was steady at ر.س10.24 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 08
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from ر.س0.491 to ر.س0.543. Revenue forecast steady at ر.س10.7b. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س12.36. Share price fell 3.0% to ر.س10.24 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.08 (vs ر.س0.07 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: ر.س0.08 (up from ر.س0.07 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ر.س2.56b (up 5.1% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ر.س75.4m (up 21% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.9% (up from 2.6% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 21
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.15 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 August 2024. Payment date: 11 September 2024. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 5.2%. Within top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (4.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.6%). Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.05 (vs ر.س0.15 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ر.س0.05 (down from ر.س0.15 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ر.س2.46b (up 1.8% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ر.س43.3m (down 69% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 5.8% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Declared Dividend • Aug 08
Dividend of ر.س0.15 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ر.س0.15. Ex-date: 26th August 2024 Payment date: 11th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (137% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (151% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 23% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 53% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 34% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Announcement • Aug 07
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announces Quarterly dividend, payable on September 11, 2024 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announced Quarterly dividend of SAR 0.1500 per share payable on September 11, 2024, ex-date on August 26, 2024 and record date on August 27, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 04
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 11% to ر.س11.38. The fair value is estimated to be ر.س14.34, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 25%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 8.8% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 10% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 28
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from ر.س11.2b to ر.س11.0b. EPS estimate rose from ر.س0.476 to ر.س0.535. Net income forecast to grow 2.3% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Consensus price target down from ر.س13.97 to ر.س13.65. Share price fell 2.2% to ر.س11.36 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 05
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company Appoints Ernst & Young as Auditor Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announced at ordinary general assembly meeting held on June 3, 2024, the shareholders approved appointing Messrs. Ernst & Young for Professional Services as the auditor for the company from among the candidates based on the Audit Committee's recommendation, the appointed auditor shall examine, review and audit the second, third, fourth quarter and annual financial statements of the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025. Reported Earnings • May 26
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.13 (vs ر.س0.13 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: ر.س0.13 (in line with 1Q 2023). Revenue: ر.س3.03b (up 9.0% from 1Q 2023). Net income: ر.س116.4m (down 3.0% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 4.3% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 25% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from ر.س11.2b to ر.س11.0b. EPS estimate also fell from ر.س0.555 per share to ر.س0.465 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 14% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س14.13. Share price fell 4.9% to ر.س12.10 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • May 21
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.15 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 May 2024. Payment date: 12 June 2024. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 4.9%. Within top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (4.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.6%). Announcement • May 08
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, Jun 03, 2024 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, Jun 03, 2024, at 16:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Agenda: To Voting on the auditor report on the Company's accounts for the fiscal year ending on 31/12/2023G, after discussing it; to Review and discuss the financial statements for the fiscal year ending on 31/12/2023G; to Review and discuss the Board of Directors' report for the fiscal year ending on 31/12/2023G; to Voting on absolving the Members of the Board Directors from their liabilities for the fiscal year ending on 31/12/2023G; to Voting on amending the Competition Business Criterions; and to consider any other matters. Reported Earnings • Apr 18
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Full year 2023 results: EPS: ر.س0.55 (down from ر.س1.20 in FY 2022). Revenue: ر.س10.2b (up 6.9% from FY 2022). Net income: ر.س490.8m (down 55% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 11% in FY 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.6% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 21
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 2.6% to ر.س13.40. The fair value is estimated to be ر.س16.96, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 32%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 9.5% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 05
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.8% to ر.س13.56. The fair value is estimated to be ر.س16.96, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 7.6% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 32%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 9.5% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Full year 2023 results: EPS: ر.س0.54 (down from ر.س1.20 in FY 2022). Revenue: ر.س10.2b (up 6.9% from FY 2022). Net income: ر.س487.5m (down 55% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 11% in FY 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 14
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.30 per share at 4.3% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 February 2024. Payment date: 07 March 2024. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 4.3%. Lower than top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (4.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.5%). Declared Dividend • Feb 09
Dividend of ر.س0.30 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ر.س0.30. Ex-date: 21st February 2024 Payment date: 7th March 2024 Dividend yield will be 4.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (105% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (117% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 23% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 16% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 3.5% over the next 2 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Announcement • Feb 07
Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Co. Announces the Distribution of Cash Dividend for Second Half of the Year 2023, Payable March 7, 2024 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announced the approval of its Board of Directors on the distribution of interim cash dividends to its shareholders for the second half of the year 2023. Dividend per share: SAR 0.30. The eligibility of dividends shall be for the Companys shareholders who owns the shares and registered in the shareholders register by the end of trading day of February 20, 2024. Distribution Date is March 7, 2024. New Risk • Nov 15
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 5.0% Last year net profit margin: 11% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (5.0% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from ر.س10.9b to ر.س10.7b. EPS estimate also fell from ر.س0.744 per share to ر.س0.667 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 55% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س13.54. Share price was steady at ر.س13.58 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 23
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ر.س0.15 (vs ر.س0.06 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: ر.س0.15 (up from ر.س0.06 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ر.س2.42b (up 7.3% from 2Q 2022). Net income: ر.س139.4m (up 179% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 5.8% (up from 2.2% in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 20
Upcoming dividend of ر.س0.30 per share at 3.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 August 2023. Payment date: 06 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.7%. Lower than top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (4.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.3%). Buying Opportunity • Jun 05
Now 54% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 88%. The fair value is estimated to be ر.س29.64, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 39%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 20% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 52% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • May 31
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ر.س1.33 (vs ر.س1.01 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: ر.س1.33 (up from ر.س1.01 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: ر.س2.78b (up 13% from 1Q 2022). Net income: ر.س120.0m (up 32% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from 3.7% in 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Apr 13
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: ر.س12.00 (up from ر.س3.36 in FY 2021). Revenue: ر.س9.55b (up 14% from FY 2021). Net income: ر.س1.08b (up 257% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 11% (up from 3.6% in FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 39%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Feb 22
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 2.7%. The fair value is estimated to be ر.س138, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 16%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 9.5% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 25% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 10
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from ر.س7.87 to ر.س11.58. Revenue forecast steady at ر.س9.45b. Net income forecast to shrink 43% next year vs 0.5% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س126. Share price was steady at ر.س107 over the past week. Announcement • Jan 09
Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Co. Announces the Appointment of Muaffag Abdullah M. Mubarah as CEO Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company announced that the appointment of Muaffag Abdullah M. Mubarah as CEO. Holds a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering in 1995G from King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals - KSA, and master’s degree in business administration in 1999G from King Saud University -KSA. He has accumulated experience for more than (27) years through his work in industrial, commercial and logistic companies in various leading positions, and he had a leadership course from London Business School in United Kingdom, and courses in finance from INSEAD Business School in France. and he assumes a membership in the boards of directors and committees in several companies. Reported Earnings • Nov 19
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: ر.س8.27 (vs ر.س0.50 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: ر.س8.27 (up from ر.س0.50 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: ر.س3.10b (up 55% from 3Q 2021). Net income: ر.س744.6m (up ر.س699.8m from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 24% (up from 2.2% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 18% per year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 4 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Muwaffaq Bin Mansour Mohammed Jamal was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 07
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from ر.س4.17 to ر.س4.68. Revenue forecast steady at ر.س9.07b. Net income forecast to grow 21% next year vs 25% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س123. Share price fell 4.1% to ر.س123 over the past week. Announcement • Sep 07
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, Sep 27, 2022 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, Sep 27, 2022, at 18:30 Arabian Standard Time. Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: ر.س2.25b (up 3.8% from 2Q 2021). Net income: ر.س46.6m (down 2.7% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.1% (in line with 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.3%, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 18% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 25
Upcoming dividend of ر.س2.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 01 September 2022. Payment date: 15 September 2022. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 3.2%. Lower than top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (4.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.8%). Reported Earnings • May 20
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2022 results: EPS: ر.س1.02 (up from ر.س0.64 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: ر.س2.50b (up 19% from 1Q 2021). Net income: ر.س91.3m (up 58% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.6% (up from 2.8% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 15%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.9%, compared to a 9.3% growth forecast for the industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 16
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from ر.س3.95 to ر.س4.76. Revenue forecast steady at ر.س9.19b. Net income forecast to grow 41% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Consensus price target of ر.س116 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ر.س113 over the past week. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 4 non-independent directors. Board Advisor Mohsen Hussein was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 18
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 16% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ر.س9.07b to ر.س9.25b. EPS estimate increased from ر.س3.84 to ر.س4.45 per share. Net income forecast to grow 16% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Consumer Retailing industry in Saudi Arabia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ر.س118. Share price was steady at ر.س114 over the past week. Announcement • Apr 18
Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, May 16, 2022 Abdullah Al-Othaim Markets Company, Annual General Meeting, May 16, 2022, at 19:00 Arabian Standard Time. Location: At company's headquarter Riyadh Saudi Arabia Agenda: To consider voting on the auditor report on the Company's accounts for the fiscal year ending 31/12/2021; to consider Voting on the financial statements for the fiscal year ending on 31/12/2021; to consider Voting on the Board of Directors' report for the fiscal year ending on 31/12/2021; to consider Voting on absolving the Members of the Board Directors from their liabilities for the fiscal year ending on 31/12/202; to consider Voting on appointing the auditor for the Company from among the candidates based on the Audit Committee's recommendation; to consider Voting on delegating the Board of Directors to distribute interim dividends on a biannual or quarterly basis, for the fiscal year 2022; and to consider other matters. Reported Earnings • Apr 08
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: ر.س3.36 (down from ر.س4.98 in FY 2020). Revenue: ر.س8.40b (down 4.6% from FY 2020). Net income: ر.س302.5m (down 32% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 3.6% (down from 5.1% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 15%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.0%, compared to a 22% growth forecast for the retail industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 14
Upcoming dividend of ر.س2.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 March 2022. Payment date: 30 March 2022. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Saudi dividend payers (4.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.7%). Reported Earnings • Feb 17
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: ر.س3.39 (down from ر.س4.95 in FY 2020). Revenue: ر.س8.40b (down 4.6% from FY 2020). Net income: ر.س305.3m (down 32% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 3.6% (down from 5.1% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 15%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the retail industry in Saudi Arabia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings.