Guzman y Gomez Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Guzman y Gomez is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 33.3% and 15.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 33.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 18% in 3 years.
Key information
33.3%
Earnings growth rate
33.77%
EPS growth rate
| Hospitality earnings growth | 16.3% |
| Revenue growth rate | 15.1% |
| Future return on equity | 17.95% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 07 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
GYG: Neutral Stance Will Hinge On FY26 Store Rollout Execution
Analysts increased the fair value estimate for Guzman y Gomez from A$21.66 to A$22.25, citing updated forecasts for revenue growth, margins and future P/E, in the context of recent sector-level rating changes and price targets around A$18.50 to A$19.00. Analyst Commentary Recent updates from research desks point to a more balanced stance on Guzman y Gomez, with price targets generally clustering around A$18.50 to A$19.00 and ratings centered on Neutral or equivalent.GYG: Rebased Fair Value Will Support Neutral Ratings And Premium P/E Over Time
The analyst price target for Guzman y Gomez has shifted lower from about A$26.41 to A$21.66, as analysts point to more conservative revenue growth assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and updated P/E expectations in line with recent Neutral and Sector Perform ratings, which are around A$18.50 to A$19. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Guzman y Gomez reflects a more balanced stance, with price targets concentrated in the A$18.50 to A$19 range.
GYG: Future Re Rating Will Rely On Neutral And Sector Perform Support
Analysts have maintained the fair value estimate at A$31.00 per share, with a slightly adjusted earnings outlook and marginally lower future P/E assumptions. These changes reflect recent rating adjustments and updated Street targets of A$18.50 to A$19.00, which indicate a more balanced risk and reward profile at current levels.GYG: Rebased Expectations Will Rely On Neutral And Sector Perform Support
The updated analyst price target for Guzman y Gomez has been revised to A$31.00 from A$32.30. Analysts attribute this change to slightly softer revenue growth and P/E expectations, which are partly offset by a modestly higher profit margin in their models.GYG: Rebased Expectations Will Rely On Future Margin Execution
Analysts have reduced their price target on Guzman y Gomez from A$36.00 to A$32.30 after incorporating updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, following recent research including the downgrade at RBC Capital. Analyst Commentary Even with the revised A$32.30 price target, some bullish analysts still see room for upside if Guzman y Gomez can execute well against the assumptions now baked into their models.GYG: Rebased Fair Value Will Support Premium P/E Over Time
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Guzman y Gomez to A$26.41 from A$27.62, citing slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, along with a modestly higher future P/E expectation following recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Analysts are reassessing Guzman y Gomez with a slightly lower fair value estimate and a downgrade in rating, reflecting a more cautious stance on how future growth and profitability might line up with the current share price.Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Guzman y Gomez Limited (ASX:GYG)
Key Insights Guzman y Gomez's estimated fair value is AU$24.83 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With AU$26.41...International Expansion And Digital Ordering Will Drive Fast Casual Trends
Guzman y Gomez’s consensus price target was revised downward, primarily reflecting reduced revenue growth expectations and a lower future P/E, resulting in a new fair value of A$29.79 (down from A$34.09). Valuation Changes Summary of Valuation Changes for Guzman y Gomez The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from A$34.09 to A$29.79.International Expansion And Digital Ordering Will Drive Fast Casual Trends
Aggressive expansion and digital innovation are fueling higher sales growth, margin improvement, and stronger operating leverage in the domestic fast-casual market.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2028 | 784 | 54 | 48 | 125 | 11 |
| 6/30/2027 | 656 | 36 | 26 | 95 | 11 |
| 6/30/2026 | 544 | 22 | 1 | 61 | 11 |
| 12/31/2025 | 516 | 18 | -1 | 61 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 491 | 16 | -3 | 59 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 465 | 14 | -4 | 57 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 439 | 6 | -1 | 50 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 413 | -2 | 2 | 42 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 389 | -8 | 2 | 39 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 365 | -14 | 3 | 37 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 350 | -9 | -2 | 36 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 334 | -5 | -6 | 35 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 306 | -4 | -7 | 35 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 277 | -2 | -8 | 35 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 172 | 4 | -7 | 20 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 120 | 4 | 8 | 23 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: GYG's forecast earnings growth (33.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.6%).
Earnings vs Market: GYG's earnings (33.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12% per year).
High Growth Earnings: GYG's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: GYG's revenue (15.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (6.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: GYG's revenue (15.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: GYG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/09 02:23 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
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Analyst Sources
Guzman y Gomez Limited is covered by 17 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Thomas Kierath | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| James Ferrier | Canaccord Genuity Historic (Wilsons Advisory and Stockbroking Ltd. |
| Sam Teeger | Citigroup Inc |