FirstGroup Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

FirstGroup's revenue is forecast to decline at 13.4% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 52.3% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 50.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.6% in 3 years.

Key information

52.3%

Earnings growth rate

50.3%

EPS growth rate

Transportation earnings growth	17.7%
Revenue growth rate	-13.4%
Future return on equity	15.6%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	25 Jun 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

LSE:FGP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (GBP Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
3/31/2027	3,210	141	84	74	6
3/31/2026	3,836	110	72	164	6
3/31/2025	4,887	103	61	227	6
3/30/2024	4,715	-10	324	543	N/A
12/30/2023	4,732	-8	402	628	N/A
9/30/2023	4,750	-7	410	642	N/A
6/30/2023	4,752	36	403	608	N/A
3/25/2023	4,755	79	396	574	N/A
12/25/2022	4,710	69	169	345	N/A
9/24/2022	4,664	59	13	186	N/A
6/24/2022	4,628	24	-126	87	N/A
3/26/2022	4,591	-11	-264	-12	N/A
12/26/2021	4,498	2	-111	229	N/A
9/25/2021	4,405	15	43	470	N/A
6/25/2021	4,362	12	413	837	N/A
3/27/2021	4,319	10	784	1,204	N/A
9/26/2020	3,164	-209	1,035	1,306	N/A
6/26/2020	3,903	-273	831	1,131	N/A
3/28/2020	4,643	-337	626	957	N/A
12/31/2019	7,555	-280	430	812	N/A
9/30/2019	7,356	-233	233	667	N/A
6/30/2019	7,241	-150	183	615	N/A
3/31/2019	7,127	-67	134	564	N/A
12/31/2018	7,029	-186	145	571	N/A
9/30/2018	6,930	-305	156	578	N/A
6/30/2018	6,664	-301	185	607	N/A
3/31/2018	6,398	-296	214	637	N/A
12/31/2017	6,129	-95	N/A	660	N/A
9/30/2017	5,860	105	N/A	683	N/A
6/30/2017	5,757	109	N/A	602	N/A
3/31/2017	5,653	112	N/A	520	N/A
12/31/2016	5,498	108	N/A	522	N/A
9/30/2016	5,342	105	N/A	523	N/A
6/30/2016	5,280	97	N/A	466	N/A
3/31/2016	5,218	90	N/A	410	N/A
12/31/2015	5,384	79	N/A	306	N/A
9/30/2015	5,551	67	N/A	202	N/A
6/30/2015	5,801	71	N/A	264	N/A
3/31/2015	6,051	75	N/A	325	N/A
12/31/2014	6,204	67	N/A	366	N/A
9/30/2014	6,358	58	N/A	407	N/A
6/30/2014	6,538	56	N/A	350	N/A
3/31/2014	6,717	54	N/A	292	N/A
12/31/2013	6,835	25	N/A	338	N/A
9/30/2013	6,952	-4	N/A	383	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FGP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.8%).

Earnings vs Market: FGP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: FGP is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FGP's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FGP's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FGP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.6%).

FirstGroup Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target increased by 9.4% to UK£1.88

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 75%

Price target increased by 7.8% to UK£1.66

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14%, revenue downgraded

Price target increased by 8.3% to UK£1.41

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15%

Recent updates

Estimating The Fair Value Of FirstGroup plc (LON:FGP)

FirstGroup plc, Annual General Meeting, Jul 26, 2024

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Firstgroup plc Proposes Final Dividend of Fiscal Year 2024, Payable on August 2024

Non-Executive Chairman recently sold UK£182k worth of stock

Now 20% overvalued

Now 20% overvalued

FirstGroup plc (LSE:FGP) signed an agreement to acquire York Pullman Bus Company Limited from Tom and Maxine James.

FirstGroup plc (LSE:FGP) signed an agreement to acquire York Pullman Bus Company Limited.

FirstGroup plc to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Jun 03, 2024

Price target increased by 9.4% to UK£1.88

CFO & Director recently sold UK£475k worth of stock

First half 2024 earnings released: UK£0.079 loss per share (vs UK£0.04 profit in 1H 2023)

FirstGroup plc Recommends Interim Dividend for the First Half of 2024, Payable on January 3, 2024

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 75%

Price target increased by 7.8% to UK£1.66

FirstGroup plc Approves Final Dividend for the 52 Weeks Ended 25 March 2023

Upcoming dividend of UK£0.029 per share at 2.6% yield

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14%, revenue downgraded

FirstGroup plc, Annual General Meeting, Jul 21, 2023

Price target increased by 8.3% to UK£1.41

CFO & Director exercised options and sold UK£1.1m worth of stock

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15%

FirstGroup plc Proposes a Final Dividend, Payable on 18 August 2023

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17%

FirstGroup plc (LSE:FGP) signed an agreement to acquire Ensign Bus Company Ltd.

FirstGroup plc (LSE:FGP) signed an agreement to acquire Ensign Bus Company Ltd.

FirstGroup plc - Lumo Appoints New Service Delivery Director

Price target decreased to UK£1.27

High number of new and inexperienced directors

Price target decreased to UK£1.27

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.05 (vs UK£0.034 loss in 1H 2022)

Firstgroup plc Declares Interim Dividend, Payable on 23 December 2022

FirstGroup plc to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Nov 09, 2022

High number of new and inexperienced directors

McGill's Bus Service Limited acquired First Scotland East Limited from FirstGroup plc (LSE:FGP).

FirstGroup plc Approves the Final Dividend for the Year Ended 26 March 2022

FirstGroup plc Announces Executive Changes

I Squared Capital Advisors (Uk) Llp cancelled the acquisition of FirstGroup plc.

I Squared Capital Advisors (Uk) Llp cancelled the acquisition of FirstGroup plc.

I Squared Capital Advisors (Uk) Llp made an offer to acquire FirstGroup plc (LSE:FGP) for £1.3 billion.

Price target increased to UK£1.23

I Squared Capital Advisors (Uk) Llp made an offer to acquire FirstGroup plc (LSE:FGP) for £1.2 billion.

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Should You Think About Buying FirstGroup plc (LON:FGP) Now?

FirstGroup plc, Annual General Meeting, Jul 27, 2022

High number of new and inexperienced directors

FirstGroup plc Appoints Graham Sutherland as Chief Executive Officer, Effective 16 May 2022

FirstGroup plc Appoints Graham Sutherland as Executive Director Effective 16 May 2022

Is FirstGroup plc (LON:FGP) Trading At A 27% Discount?

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 419%

Consensus forecasts updated

First half 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Consensus forecasts updated

Price target increased to UK£0.99

Price target increased to UK£0.92

Independent Non-Executive Director Stephen William Gunning has left the company

Independent Non-Executive Director Martha Poulter has left the company

CEO & Executive Director Matthew Gregory has left the company

Coast Capital Provides Information to the Shareholders

Price target increased to UK£0.89

Consensus revenue estimates fall to UK£5.80b

CFO & Director recently bought UK£178k worth of stock

CEO & Executive Director exercised options and sold UK£103k worth of stock

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS UK£0.039 (vs UK£0.27 loss in FY 2020)

Senior Independent Non-Executive Director David Robbie has left the company

Price target increased to UK£0.81