Lundin Mining Corporation

TSX:LUN Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$10.3b

Lundin Mining Valuation

Is LUN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$0.62
Fair Value
1.8k% overvalued intrinsic discount
18
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: LUN (CA$11.92) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$0.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUN?

Key metric: As LUN is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LUN. This is calculated by dividing LUN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LUN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.1x
SalesUS$3.42b
Market CapUS$7.21b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LUN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LUN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.3x
CS Capstone Copper
2.6x16.5%CA$5.9b
FM First Quantum Minerals
2.4x16.7%CA$16.4b
ERO Ero Copper
2.7x19.9%CA$1.8b
TKO Taseko Mines
1.7x22.4%CA$1.0b
LUN Lundin Mining
2.1x1.4%CA$10.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LUN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the peer average (2.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LUN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

103 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.3.3x13.1%
LUN Lundin Mining
 2.1x1.4%US$7.21b
ABX Barrick Gold
2.6x5.2%US$33.03b
TECK.B Teck Resources
3x6.3%US$18.85b
LUN 2.1xIndustry Avg. 3.3xNo. of Companies103PS01224364860+
103 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.3.3x23.6%
LUN Lundin Mining
 2.1x22.7%US$7.21b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LUN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (3.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.1x
Fair PS Ratio2.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LUN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$11.92
CA$15.63
+31.1%
12.0%CA$19.07CA$11.77n/a18
Mar ’26CA$11.59
CA$16.19
+39.7%
16.3%CA$24.29CA$11.89n/a19
Feb ’26CA$11.48
CA$16.39
+42.8%
15.1%CA$24.32CA$12.47n/a19
Jan ’26CA$12.37
CA$17.67
+42.8%
11.9%CA$24.20CA$14.63n/a20
Dec ’25CA$13.74
CA$17.24
+25.4%
15.0%CA$23.47CA$9.55n/a20
Nov ’25CA$13.68
CA$17.45
+27.6%
14.3%CA$23.23CA$9.51n/a20
Oct ’25CA$14.22
CA$16.76
+17.9%
12.5%CA$19.53CA$9.52n/a19
Sep ’25CA$13.98
CA$17.04
+21.9%
13.1%CA$19.53CA$9.52n/a19
Aug ’25CA$13.32
CA$17.60
+32.1%
13.6%CA$20.09CA$9.52n/a19
Jul ’25CA$15.23
CA$17.90
+17.5%
15.1%CA$22.08CA$8.53n/a21
Jun ’25CA$15.67
CA$17.38
+10.9%
15.0%CA$20.06CA$8.52n/a21
May ’25CA$15.35
CA$15.78
+2.8%
16.3%CA$20.05CA$7.81n/a21
Apr ’25CA$14.16
CA$12.95
-8.6%
18.7%CA$17.92CA$6.41n/a21
Mar ’25CA$10.81
CA$11.98
+10.8%
15.1%CA$14.55CA$6.42CA$11.5920
Feb ’25CA$11.08
CA$11.49
+3.7%
13.7%CA$12.97CA$7.39CA$11.4819
Jan ’25CA$10.84
CA$11.17
+3.1%
13.2%CA$12.99CA$7.40CA$12.3719
Dec ’24CA$9.80
CA$11.18
+14.0%
11.1%CA$12.93CA$8.10CA$13.7420
Nov ’24CA$8.74
CA$11.70
+33.9%
11.7%CA$13.25CA$8.09CA$13.6820
Oct ’24CA$10.13
CA$11.92
+17.6%
10.5%CA$13.23CA$8.53CA$14.2220
Sep ’24CA$10.81
CA$11.70
+8.2%
10.8%CA$13.25CA$8.54CA$13.9821
Aug ’24CA$11.75
CA$11.44
-2.6%
10.0%CA$13.06CA$8.61CA$13.3221
Jul ’24CA$10.38
CA$11.01
+6.1%
9.6%CA$12.76CA$8.49CA$15.2320
Jun ’24CA$9.63
CA$10.99
+14.2%
9.7%CA$13.09CA$8.71CA$15.6720
May ’24CA$10.50
CA$10.71
+2.0%
9.7%CA$12.13CA$8.09CA$15.3519
Apr ’24CA$9.18
CA$9.59
+4.5%
12.0%CA$11.95CA$6.99CA$14.1619
Mar ’24CA$8.99
CA$9.70
+7.9%
14.2%CA$13.01CA$7.02CA$10.8119
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
CA$15.63
Fair Value
23.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
18
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/31 04:09
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/28 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Lundin Mining Corporation is covered by 56 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Olof GrenmarkABG Sundal Collier
Farooq HamedBarclays
Charlie ClarkBerenberg