First Quantum Minerals Ltd.

TSX:FM Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$31.2b

First Quantum Minerals Valuation

Is FM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of FM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: FM (CA$38.31) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CA$97.3)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: FM is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FM?

Key metric: As FM is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for FM. This is calculated by dividing FM's market cap by their current revenue.
What is FM's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.4x
SalesUS$5.24b
Market CapUS$22.79b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does FM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for FM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.3x
LUN Lundin Mining
6.4x1.40%CA$33.8b
CS Capstone Copper
3.6x14.40%CA$10.7b
ERO Ero Copper
5.5x9.70%CA$4.3b
TKO Taseko Mines
5.9x16.42%CA$4.0b
FM First Quantum Minerals
4.4x19.33%CA$31.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FM is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x) compared to the peer average (5.3x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does FM's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Metals and Mining Industry?

83 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TECK.B Teck Resources
3.7x3.04%US$29.03b
CS Capstone Copper
3.6x14.40%US$7.81b
BTO B2Gold
2.5x12.35%US$7.19b
TRQ Turquoise Hill Resources
3.8x31.91%US$6.32b
FM 4.4xIndustry Avg. 9.1xNo. of Companies83PS01632486480+
83 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FM is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x) compared to the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average (8.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.4x
Fair PS Ratio4.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: FM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$38.31
CA$43.38
+13.22%
9.78%CA$51.19CA$35.24n/a22
Feb ’27CA$38.49
CA$40.48
+5.18%
12.20%CA$48.14CA$29.36n/a22
Jan ’27CA$36.80
CA$35.50
-3.54%
9.37%CA$42.49CA$28.29n/a22
Dec ’26CA$31.60
CA$35.24
+11.50%
9.46%CA$41.08CA$28.73n/a22
Nov ’26CA$29.12
CA$35.25
+21.07%
10.99%CA$41.03CA$22.91n/a22
Oct ’26CA$31.77
CA$27.65
-12.96%
11.69%CA$33.97CA$19.98n/a22
Sep ’26CA$24.07
CA$25.61
+6.41%
9.96%CA$28.95CA$19.93n/a22
Aug ’26CA$22.18
CA$25.54
+15.13%
9.98%CA$28.98CA$20.22n/a22
Jul ’26CA$24.19
CA$22.33
-7.68%
13.91%CA$27.97CA$16.76n/a22
Jun ’26CA$20.33
CA$21.46
+5.54%
12.05%CA$25.77CA$16.86n/a22
May ’26CA$18.65
CA$21.65
+16.07%
12.10%CA$26.00CA$17.00n/a22
Apr ’26CA$20.30
CA$21.72
+6.99%
12.75%CA$25.99CA$17.17n/a20
Mar ’26CA$17.95
CA$21.30
+18.65%
12.43%CA$26.41CA$17.33n/a20
Feb ’26CA$18.19
CA$21.11
+16.07%
12.50%CA$26.06CA$17.13CA$38.4920
Jan ’26CA$18.53
CA$22.20
+19.79%
14.06%CA$28.10CA$17.33CA$36.8021
Dec ’25CA$19.13
CA$21.37
+11.69%
13.40%CA$27.42CA$17.61CA$31.6021
Nov ’25CA$18.21
CA$21.23
+16.56%
12.87%CA$27.21CA$17.47CA$29.1221
Oct ’25CA$18.99
CA$20.23
+6.51%
12.84%CA$25.38CA$16.47CA$31.7721
Sep ’25CA$16.97
CA$20.25
+19.32%
14.11%CA$25.48CA$16.09CA$24.0721
Aug ’25CA$15.98
CA$20.96
+31.17%
13.99%CA$26.04CA$16.45CA$22.1822
Jul ’25CA$17.97
CA$20.21
+12.47%
15.98%CA$26.07CA$16.07CA$24.1922
Jun ’25CA$17.51
CA$18.96
+8.28%
17.42%CA$25.92CA$13.88CA$20.3324
May ’25CA$17.29
CA$17.36
+0.41%
14.60%CA$25.89CA$13.84CA$18.6523
Apr ’25CA$14.55
CA$16.43
+12.89%
18.05%CA$25.12CA$12.00CA$20.3023
Mar ’25CA$12.90
CA$15.93
+23.50%
19.48%CA$25.09CA$11.04CA$17.9521
Feb ’25CA$12.61
CA$16.41
+30.10%
33.35%CA$36.48CA$10.94CA$18.1920
CA$43.38
Fair Value
11.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
22
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/23 12:57
End of Day Share Price 2026/02/23 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. is covered by 43 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harriet LiAccountability Research Corporation
Clifford Hale-SandersATB Cormark Historical (Cormark Securities)
Izak RossouwBarclays