United Parcel Service, Inc.

NYSE:UPS Stock Report

Market Cap: US$114.7b

United Parcel Service Valuation

Is UPS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UPS ($134.15) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($85.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPS is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

UPS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA11x
PEG Ratio1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UPS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UPS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23x
FDX FedEx
17.1x10.8%US$68.4b
ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman)
15.2x14.1%US$18.2b
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington
22.9x2.8%US$16.7b
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
36.7x16.2%US$12.6b
UPS United Parcel Service
20.3x13.0%US$114.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the peer average (23x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.6%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.6%
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No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (17.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.3x
Fair PE Ratio25x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$134.15
US$149.42
+11.4%
11.8%US$185.00US$100.00n/a29
Nov ’25US$134.05
US$149.28
+11.4%
11.8%US$185.00US$100.00n/a29
Oct ’25US$133.27
US$144.64
+8.5%
13.0%US$190.00US$100.00n/a28
Sep ’25US$128.55
US$145.86
+13.5%
13.4%US$190.00US$100.00n/a29
Aug ’25US$130.58
US$147.73
+13.1%
14.2%US$190.00US$100.00n/a29
Jul ’25US$135.95
US$161.84
+19.0%
12.5%US$205.00US$100.00n/a29
Jun ’25US$138.93
US$162.48
+17.0%
12.5%US$205.00US$100.00n/a28
May ’25US$145.92
US$162.95
+11.7%
12.1%US$205.00US$100.00n/a30
Apr ’25US$147.62
US$159.56
+8.1%
12.9%US$210.00US$100.00n/a29
Mar ’25US$148.06
US$160.34
+8.3%
13.1%US$210.00US$95.00n/a29
Feb ’25US$142.41
US$161.37
+13.3%
14.0%US$215.00US$95.00n/a30
Jan ’25US$157.23
US$166.10
+5.6%
14.3%US$220.00US$100.00n/a30
Dec ’24US$154.91
US$165.57
+6.9%
14.4%US$220.00US$100.00n/a30
Nov ’24US$139.80
US$166.77
+19.3%
14.4%US$220.00US$100.00US$134.0530
Oct ’24US$155.87
US$184.42
+18.3%
12.4%US$230.00US$100.00US$133.2729
Sep ’24US$168.00
US$189.93
+13.1%
11.7%US$230.00US$100.00US$128.5530
Aug ’24US$185.50
US$190.38
+2.6%
12.3%US$230.00US$100.00US$130.5829
Jul ’24US$179.25
US$189.90
+5.9%
12.0%US$230.00US$100.00US$135.9530
Jun ’24US$167.83
US$191.10
+13.9%
11.7%US$230.00US$100.00US$138.9329
May ’24US$182.20
US$189.68
+4.1%
11.4%US$225.00US$100.00US$145.9228
Apr ’24US$193.99
US$191.97
-1.0%
11.8%US$225.00US$100.00US$147.6230
Mar ’24US$183.08
US$191.70
+4.7%
11.8%US$227.00US$100.00US$148.0630
Feb ’24US$184.98
US$191.70
+3.6%
11.8%US$227.00US$100.00US$142.4130
Jan ’24US$173.84
US$190.52
+9.6%
13.1%US$251.00US$100.00US$157.2331
Dec ’23US$190.19
US$189.55
-0.3%
13.1%US$251.00US$100.00US$154.9131
Nov ’23US$167.40
US$189.81
+13.4%
12.4%US$251.00US$100.00US$139.8031

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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