Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jul 24
CEO, MD & Director exercised options to buy AU$6.1m worth of stock. On the 22nd of July, Hugh Wehby exercised options to buy 1m shares at a strike price of around AU$5.10, costing a total of AU$6.1m. This transaction amounted to 162% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Hugh currently holds less than 1% of total shares outstanding. Company insiders have collectively bought AU$6.2m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 16
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from AU$0.266 to AU$0.299. Revenue forecast steady at AU$159.0m. Net income forecast to grow 81% next year vs 49% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target down from AU$4.99 to AU$4.88. Share price rose 2.4% to AU$5.07 over the past week. Live News • Jun 15
Atlas Arteria Board Rejects IFM’s A$7.4 Billion Takeover Offer After 18% Premium Bid IFM Investors has lifted its takeover proposal for Atlas Arteria to about A$7.4b, offering A$5.10 per share, which represents a 17.78% premium to the pre-bid price.
The Atlas Arteria board has unanimously rejected the higher offer, pointing to an independent expert report that concluded the proposal was neither fair nor reasonable.
IFM has set a firm deadline of 25 June 2026 for shareholders to respond while continuing to purchase additional ALX shares on market through its banker Jarden.
The key tension here is between IFM’s view of a full control premium and the board’s stance that the offer undervalues long-duration toll road assets such as the Chicago Skyway and the APRR network in France.
Shareholders now face a live decision around control at a fixed cash price versus remaining exposed to the company’s existing asset base and any future corporate interest beyond IFM’s stated “final” bid. Live News • May 22
Takeovers Panel Clears Path for IFM’s A$7b Bid as Atlas Arteria Board Stands Firm The Australian Takeovers Panel has declined to declare unacceptable circumstances in relation to IFM Investors’ A$7b hostile takeover bid for Atlas Arteria, clearing key structural and disclosure concerns after regulatory interventions and bidder undertakings.
IFM’s subsidiary Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd received ASIC relief allowing a conditional extension of the offer period if ownership reaches 45%, alongside a conditional offer price increase from A$4.75 to A$5.10 per security.
Atlas Arteria’s Independent Directors continue to unanimously recommend shareholders reject the bid as undervalued, highly conditional and opportunistic, while reaffirming 2026 distribution guidance and outlining a new debt facility to address Chicago Skyway risks and support longer-term value plans.
The cleared regulatory path and higher conditional offer price put more focus on how shareholders weigh the board-endorsed independent expert valuation against IFM’s claim that its offer is attractive.
Investors now face a choice between accepting a cash offer with conditions and timing risk, or backing the existing management plan tied to distribution guidance, debt refinancing and potential longer-term outcomes, with further clarity expected from the target’s statement due in May 2026. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 28
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to AU$4.89, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 26x in the Infrastructure industry in Australia. Total loss to shareholders of 3.4% over the past three years. Announcement • Apr 27
IFM Global Infrastructure Fund managed by IFM Investors Pty Ltd proposed to acquire remaining 65.52% stake in Atlas Arteria Limited (ASX:ALX) from Lazard Asset Management Limited, BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) and State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) and others for AUD 4.5 billion. IFM Global Infrastructure Fund managed by IFM Investors Pty Ltd proposed to acquire remaining 65.52% stake in Atlas Arteria Limited (ASX:ALX) from Lazard Asset Management Limited, BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) and State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) and others for AUD 4.5 billion on April 27, 2026. A cash consideration valued at AUD 4.75 per share will be paid by IFM Global Infrastructure Fund and IFM Investors Pty Ltd. The Offer Price will be increased to the Maximum Consideration of AUD 5.10 per Security if Bidder's Relevant Interest in Atlas Arteria Securities is 45% or more prior to the close of the Offer. IFM GIF has access to existing cash balances, funding commitments from its investors and third party debt on an unconditional basis which in aggregate exceed the Offer Amount and are sufficient to support the Funding Commitments. Under the Funding Commitments, IFM GIF and IFM Finance will make available cash amounts in aggregate of not less than the Offer Amount for the purpose of funding the aggregate consideration for the acquisition of the Securities to which the Offer relates. The Funding Commitments are not subject to any conditions. Bidder may also proceed to compulsory acquisition of the Performance Rights which have not been exercised and that have not lapsed, or alternatively pursue other arrangements in relation to those Performance Rights. Atlas Arteria Limited advises that shareholders take no action in relation to the Offer.
The transaction is subject to subject to antitrust regulations, approval by regulatory board / committee and third party approval needed. The Boards of Atlas Arteria will establish an Independent Board Committee to consider the Offer.
Allens acted as legal advisor for IFM Investors Pty Ltd. Carey Olsen LLP acted as legal advisor for IFM Investors Pty Ltd. Jarden Australia Pty Limited acted as financial advisor for IFM Investors Pty Ltd. MUFG Corporate Markets Limited acted as transfer agent/registrar for IFM Investors Pty Ltd. Flagstaff Partners Pty Ltd and UBS AG act as financial advisor and Mallesons Stephen Jaques act as legal advisor for Atlas Arteria Limited. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from AU$0.265 to AU$0.212 per share. Revenue forecast steady at AU$158.8m. Net income forecast to grow 41% next year vs 46% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target down from AU$4.89 to AU$4.78. Share price was steady at AU$4.25 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Mar 23
Final dividend of AU$0.20 announced Dividend of AU$0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 25th March 2026 Payment date: 9th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 8.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (224% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 6x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 9.6% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 148% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 162% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Announcement • Mar 17
Atlas Arteria Limited to Report First Half, 2026 Results on Aug 26, 2026 Atlas Arteria Limited announced that they will report first half, 2026 results on Aug 26, 2026 Announcement • Mar 16
Atlas Arteria Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 13, 2026 Atlas Arteria Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 13, 2026. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from AU$167.2m to AU$160.9m. EPS estimate also fell from AU$0.325 per share to AU$0.265 per share. Net income forecast to grow 44% next year vs 75% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target down from AU$5.11 to AU$4.98. Share price fell 2.5% to AU$4.72 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.18 (vs AU$0.23 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: AU$0.18 (down from AU$0.23 in FY 2024). Revenue: AU$160.0m (up 9.7% from FY 2024). Net income: AU$259.5m (down 23% from FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.2% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year. Announcement • Nov 10
Atlas Arteria Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Feb 26, 2026 Atlas Arteria Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Feb 26, 2026 Declared Dividend • Sep 21
First half dividend of AU$0.20 announced Dividend of AU$0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 24th September 2025 Payment date: 7th October 2025 Dividend yield will be 7.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (194% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 6x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 9.3% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 115% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 92% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 03
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 39% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from AU$153.8m to AU$213.9m. EPS estimate fell from AU$0.279 to AU$0.276. Net income forecast to grow 55% next year vs 55% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$5.39. Share price fell 2.8% to AU$5.23 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.074 (vs AU$0.099 in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: AU$0.074 (down from AU$0.099 in 1H 2024). Revenue: AU$77.5m (up 11% from 1H 2024). Net income: AU$107.2m (down 26% from 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 7% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year. Announcement • Jul 18
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Virginia Supreme Court Decision Affirms SCC Rate Case Appeal Atlas Arteria noted the decision made by the Supreme Court of Virginia (SCV) on 17 July 2025 affirming the 2024 State Corporation Commission's (SCC) decision denying Toll Road Investors Partnership II (TRIP II)'s latest toll rate application for the Dulles Greenway. TRIP II's pending federal case, which was stayed in anticipation of the SCV appeal decision, will now proceed. The federal complaint alleges constitutional violations distinct from those decided by the SCV and seeks compensatory, declarative, injunctive, and other relief, unavailable to TRIP II in the SCV appeal. TRIP II continues to engage with the SCC working group and anticipates submitting a new rate application this year. Major Estimate Revision • May 14
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from AU$0.279 to AU$0.317. Revenue forecast steady at AU$153.9m. Net income forecast to grow 32% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$5.36. Share price was steady at AU$5.14 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Mar 22
Final dividend of AU$0.20 announced Dividend of AU$0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 25th March 2025 Payment date: 4th April 2025 Dividend yield will be 8.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (173% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 6x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 9.3% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 92% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 60% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Announcement • Mar 20
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Distribution for the Six Months Ended 31 December 2024, Payable on 4 April 2025 Atlas Arteria Limited announced a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security (cps) for the six months ended 31 December 2024, consistent with guidance provided in full year results announcement on 27 February 2025. Stapled securities trade ex-entitlement date is 25 March 2025. Record date is 26 March 2025. Estimated payment date is 4 April 2025. Announcement • Mar 11
Atlas Arteria Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025 Atlas Arteria Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from AU$167.0m to AU$155.5m. EPS estimate also fell from AU$0.303 per share to AU$0.271 per share. Net income forecast to grow 29% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$5.31. Share price was steady at AU$5.07 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 27
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: AU$0.23 (up from AU$0.22 in FY 2023). Revenue: AU$145.9m (up 8.9% from FY 2023). Net income: AU$335.9m (up 3.8% from FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 27%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 28%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.7% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Declared Dividend • Sep 21
First half dividend of AU$0.20 announced Dividend of AU$0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 24th September 2024 Payment date: 7th October 2024 Dividend yield will be 8.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (194% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 6x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 15% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 116% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 68% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Announcement • Sep 19
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Distribution for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2024, Payable on 7 October 2024 Atlas Arteria Limited announced a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security (cps) for the six months ended 30 June 2024, consistent with guidance provided in half year results announcement on 29 August 2024. Stapled securities trade ex-entitlement: 24 September 2024. Record date: 25 September 2024. Estimated payment date: 7 October 2024. The distribution will be paid by Atlas Arteria International Limited (ATLIX) and Atlas Arteria Limited (ATLAX) and will be an unfranked distribution. Board Change • Sep 10
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Non-Executive Director Danny Elia was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 04
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from AU$253.6m to AU$220.6m. EPS estimate fell from AU$0.29 to AU$0.268 per share. Net income forecast to grow 56% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$5.50. Share price was steady at AU$5.07 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 30
First half 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First half 2024 results: EPS: AU$0.099 (down from AU$0.12 in 1H 2023). Revenue: AU$69.6m (up 9.6% from 1H 2023). Net income: AU$144.3m (down 14% from 1H 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 42%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 46%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 12% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 29
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.9% to AU$5.06. The fair value is estimated to be AU$6.34, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 14% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 19% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 14% per annum over the same time period. Declared Dividend • Mar 23
Final dividend of AU$0.20 announced Dividend of AU$0.20 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 26th March 2024 Payment date: 8th April 2024 Dividend yield will be 7.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (132% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 6x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 20% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 47% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 56% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Announcement • Mar 21
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Distribution for the Six Months Ended 31 December 2023, Payable on 8 April 2024 Atlas Arteria Limited announced a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security (cps) for the six months ended 31 December 2023, consistent with guidance provided in full year results announcement on 29 February 2024. Stapled securities trade ex-entitlement is on 26 March 2024. Record date is on 27 March 2024 and estimated payment date is on 8 April 2024. Reported Earnings • Feb 29
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.22 (vs AU$0.25 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: AU$0.22. Revenue: AU$134.0m (down 4.5% from FY 2022). Net income: AU$323.5m (up 21% from FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 22% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Oceania. Announcement • Oct 16
Atlas Arteria Appoints Laura Hendricks to the Board as an Independent Non-Executive Director Atlas Arteria announced the appointment of Ms Laura Hendricks to the Board of Atlas Arteria Limited (ATLAX) as an Independent Non-executive Director effective immediately. Ms Hendricks is currently Chief Executive Officer of Transdev U.S., the largest operator and integrator of multiple modes of transportation in the United States. Laura has worked in a number of roles in the transportation industry across the US for more than 20 years and also has international experience working with shareholders in Europe, specifically in France and Germany. Ms Hendricks is also currently Chair of the North American Transit Alliance, an organization that advocates for the essential role that private contractors play in public transit. Prior to joining Transdev U.S., Ms Hendricks was President and/or CEO of several companies including Paint Drop by Valspar, Coach America and Merry Maids. Ms Hendricks also spent several years in executive leadership roles at Cintas and Fed Ex. Ms Hendricks is an accomplished senior executive with broad leadership experience in operations, including full P&L responsibility, business development, supply chain management, financial oversight, M&A, culture-building and change management. In her various roles, Ms Hendricks has also gained significant government relations experience in the United States, including working with public authorities and regulators. Ms Hendricks graduated from Xavier University with a Bachelor of Liberal Arts degree. Announcement • Sep 22
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Distribution for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2023, Estimated Payment Date Is 5 October 2023 Atlas Arteria announced a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security (cps) for the six months ended 30 June 2023. Stapled securities trade ex-entitlement is 25 September 2023, Record date is 26 September 2023 and Estimated payment date is 5 October 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from AU$305.6m to AU$293.8m. EPS estimate also fell from AU$0.392 per share to AU$0.347 per share. Net income forecast to grow 99% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$6.41. Share price fell 4.5% to AU$5.90 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.12 (vs AU$0.13 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: AU$0.12. Revenue: AU$63.5m (up 17% from 1H 2022). Net income: AU$167.6m (up 32% from 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 26% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.2% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Oceania. Announcement • Aug 31
Atlas Arteria Limited Reaffirms Distribution Guidance for the First Half and Second Half of 2023 Atlas Arteria Limited reaffirmed distribution guidance of 20.0 cents per security for first half of 2023, and 20.0 cents per security for second half of 2023. Announcement • Jun 07
Atlas Arteria Limited Appoints Ken Daley as Director Atlas Arteria Limited appointed Ken Daley as Director. Date of appointment 30 May 2023. Announcement • Jun 01
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Caroline Foulger Will Retire as A Director, with Effect from 1 July 2023 Atlas Arteria Limited announced that Ms Caroline Foulger will retire as a Director of Atlas Arteria International Limited with effect from 1 July 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from AU$329.5m to AU$318.1m. EPS estimate also fell from AU$0.40 per share to AU$0.34 per share. Net income forecast to grow 79% next year vs 28% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at AU$6.46. Share price rose 6.0% to AU$6.53 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.25 (vs AU$0.19 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: AU$0.25 (up from AU$0.19 in FY 2021). Revenue: AU$140.4m (up 40% from FY 2021). Net income: AU$267.0m (up 46% from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Oceania. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 95% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Board Change • Jan 04
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. MD, CEO & Executive Director Graeme Bevans was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Dec 20
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Board Changes Independent Director, Ms. Ariane Barker will retire as a Director of Atlas Arteria Limited (ATLAX) with effect from 31 December 2022. From 1 January 2023 Mr. John Wigglesworth will join the ATLAX Board as an Independent Director and will be appointed as the Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee. Mr. Wigglesworth is a Chartered Accountant with 37 years professional experience, including nearly 25 years as a Partner at KPMG both in Australia and internationally. During this time, he held a number of leadership positions including as a member of the Audit Leadership Group in Australia and as the national leader of the Audit Retention & Conversion Function. In these roles he gained broad experience with clients across different industries including transport, data and technology and aviation. Mr. Wigglesworth has also held several Board positions in the not-for-profit sector, including as a Member of the Macquarie University Council and Audit & Risk Committee. As required by the ATLAX Constitution, Mr. Wigglesworth will stand for election at the 2023 AGM. ATLAX- Appointment of IFM Representative as Board Observer and proposed appointment as Non-Independent Director at 2023 AGM Following discussions with ALX's large securityholder, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund (IFM), it is intended that Mr. Ken Daley will be nominated by the Board to stand for appointment as a Director of ATLAX at the 2023 AGM in May. It is also proposed that Mr. Daley will be a Board observer from 1 January 2023 up until the 2023 AGM. Mr. Daley is not able to be appointed to the ATLAX Board prior to the 2023 AGM, because of the limit on the number of Directors in ATLAX's Constitution (which, as discussed below, is intended to be increased at the 2023 AGM). Mr. Daley is a globally recognised infrastructure leader with several decades of operational and board-level toll road experience. Mr. Daley's previous executive experience in toll roads has included being the CEO of Aleatica, the CEO of Indiana Toll Road, and President International Development at Transurban. Mr. Daley is also a former director of the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association (IBTTA). Mr. Daley is currently a special adviser to IFM, and a director on IFM investee companies, including Indiana Toll Road, Aleatica and M6 Toll. At Aleatica, Mr. Daley is the Chair of the Board. Given that Mr. Daley is an adviser to IFM, and the fact that IFM is a substantial securityholder in ALX, Mr. Daley would not be considered an Independent Director under ASX Corporate Governance Principles. Announcement • Dec 03
Atlas Arteria Limited (ASX:ALX) completed the acquisition of 66.67% stake in Skyway Concession Company, LLC from CPP Investments and OMERS Infrastructure. Atlas Arteria Limited (ASX:ALX) entered into an agreement to acquire a 66.67% stake in Skyway Concession Company, LLC from CPP Investments and OMERS Infrastructure for $2 billion on September 12, 2022. The acquisition will be funded via a fully underwritten 1 for 1.95 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer to raise AUD 3.1 billion ($2.1 billion). The Equity Raising will result in the issue of approximately 491.8 million new ordinary stapled securities at an offer price of AUD 6.3 ($4.3) per share. UBS Securities Australia Limited and RBC Capital Markets, are acting as joint lead managers, bookrunners and underwriters in relation to an equity capital raising to fund the acquisition. The acquisition establishes a partnership with Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, which is retaining its 33.33% interest in Skyway Concession Company, LLC.
Skyway reported revenue of $117.4 million and EBITDA of $102 million for the June 2022 LTM. Acquisition enterprise value (on a 100% basis) of $4.403 billion representing an EV/EBITDA of 43.2x LTM EBITDA, and 37.6x 2024 estimated EBITDA. IFM Global Infrastructure Fund (IFM GIF), shareholder of Atlas Arteria Limited said that it is not supportive of the acquisition at the current price as it would be "significantly value destructive". The transaction is subject to receipt of regulatory approvals including Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) antitrust clearance and consent of the City of Chicago and customary conditions. As of November 28, 2022, all required regulatory approvals have been obtained in relation to the acquisition. The transaction is expected to complete in Q4 2022. As of September 14, 2022, transaction is expected to close in late 2022. As of November 28, 2022, all major conditions precedent have now been satisfied, completion of the acquisition is expected to occur by early December 2022. The transaction is value accretive for securityholders as it delivers an internal rate of return exceeding Atlas Arteria’s current risk-adjusted cost of equity.
RBC Capital Markets is acting as lead financial advisor and UBS Securities Australia Limited is acting as financial advisor to Atlas Arteria for the acquisition. Evercore Partners Canada Ltd. acted as the financial advisor to CPP Investments and OMERS Infrastructure. Justin Stolte, Catherine Ozdogan, Gregory Hannibal, Eric Kamerman, James Barker, Damara Chambers, Jennifer Pepin, Nineveh Alkhas, Jason Cruise, Joshua Marnitz, Peter Todaro, Tomas Nilsson, and Robin Hulshizer of Latham & Watkins LLP acted as the legal advisor to CPP Investments and OMERS Infrastructure. Adam Cieply of White & Case LLP acted as the legal advisor to Atlas Arteria.
Atlas Arteria Limited (ASX:ALX) completed the acquisition of 66.67% stake in Skyway Concession Company, LLC from CPP Investments and OMERS Infrastructure on December 2, 2022. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan will continue to hold its 33.33% interest in Chicago Skyway. Buying Opportunity • Nov 03
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 19%. The fair value is estimated to be AU$8.24, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 21% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 99%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 226% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 126% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Sep 20
Atlas Arteria Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 27, 2023 Atlas Arteria Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 27, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 19
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from AU$121.2m to AU$133.4m. EPS estimate increased from AU$0.34 to AU$0.35 per share. Net income forecast to grow 42% next year vs 42% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target down from AU$7.57 to AU$6.96. Share price fell 16% to AU$6.54 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 16
Price target decreased to AU$6.96 Down from AU$7.57, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 5.6% above last closing price of AU$6.59. Stock is down 6.0% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.36 for next year compared to AU$0.19 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 16
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 17% share price decline to AU$6.59, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Infrastructure industry in Oceania. Total loss to shareholders of 5.4% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at AU$6.97 per share. Announcement • Sep 13
Atlas Arteria Announces Distribution for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2022, Payable on 3 October 2022 Atlas Arteria announced a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security (cps) for the six months ended 30 June 2022. Stapled securities trade ex-entitlement is 21 September 2022. Record date is 23 September 2022. Estimated payment date is 3 October 2022. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from AU$129.8m to AU$119.5m. EPS estimate also fell from AU$0.39 per share to AU$0.33 per share. Net income forecast to grow 39% next year vs 39% growth forecast for Infrastructure industry in Australia. Consensus price target down from AU$7.67 to AU$7.50. Share price was steady at AU$7.96 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 01
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: AU$0 (vs AU$0.074 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: AU$0. Revenue: AU$54.7m (up 26% from 1H 2021). Net income: AU$127.5m (up 59% from 1H 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 17%, compared to a 23% growth forecast for the Infrastructure industry in Australia. Price Target Changed • Jun 09
Price target increased to AU$7.40 Up from AU$6.77, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 10% below last closing price of AU$8.25. Stock is up 28% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of AU$0.40 for next year compared to AU$0.19 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 08
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to AU$8.25, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 20x. Average forward P/E is 23x in the Infrastructure industry in Oceania. Total returns to shareholders of 22% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at AU$6.75 per share. Announcement • Apr 08
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Executive Changes Atlas Arteria Limited announced that has been appointed Chief Financial Officer. David will replace Nadine Lennie who left Atlas Arteria on 31 March 2022. David is currently Chief Financial Officer of Chorus New Zealand, having held this role since 2018. David brings demonstrated experience in driving business performance across a range of financial and commercial disciplines. Prior to Chorus, he has held several senior finance roles during eight years spent at Aurizon Holdings and nine years at Brookfield Multiplex. David brings significant international experience having worked in businesses across Australia, the UK, Germany and the Middle East. Pending David's commencement, Emma Stepcic Director, Finance and Reporting has been appointed Acting Chief Financial Officer. Emma, an experienced finance executive, has been with Atlas Arteria since 2018. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 03
Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$76k worth of stock On the 25th of February, Ariane Barker bought around 12k shares on-market at roughly AU$6.59 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought AU$275k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: AU$0.17 (up from AU$0.017 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: AU$100.7m (down 5.6% from FY 2020). Net income: AU$183.2m (up AU$199.3m from FY 2020). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 144%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 37%, compared to a 25% growth forecast for the industry in Australia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 46% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 23
Insider recently bought AU$67k worth of stock On the 16th of September, D. Cook bought around 10k shares on-market at roughly AU$6.69 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought AU$338k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Aug 27
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.074 (vs AU$0.14 loss in 1H 2020) First half 2021 results: Revenue: AU$43.5m (down 27% from 1H 2020). Net income: AU$80.1m (up AU$174.4m from 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 49% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 16
Price target decreased to AU$6.21 Down from AU$6.71, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of AU$6.00. Stock is up 5.3% over the past year. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 03
Independent Chairman of the Board recently bought AU$100k worth of stock On the 1st of March, Debra Goodin bought around 18k shares on-market at roughly AU$5.61 per share. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Debra has been a buyer over the last 12 months, purchasing a net total of AU$108k worth in shares. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2020 earnings released: AU$0.061 loss per share (vs AU$0.024 profit in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: AU$106.7m (down 39% from FY 2019). Net loss: AU$16.1m (down 194% from profit in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 132 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Feb 26
Atlas Arteria Limited Announces Board Changes Atlas Arteria announces Ariane Barker will join the Board of Atlas Arteria Limited as an independent non-executive director, effective 1 March 2021. This appointment is part of the Atlas Arteria ongoing board renewal program. Prior to her appointment, Ms Barker was Chief Executive Officer of Scale Investors, a role she held from 2017. Before that she was General Manager, Products and Markets at JBWere in Melbourne which followed an extensive international career in investment banking at HSBC, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. Ms Barker currently serves as a non-executive director and member of the Board Governance and Risk Committees of the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation, a non-executive director and Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee of IDP Education Limited and a member of the Investment Committee of the Murdoch Children's Research Institute. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 11
New 90-day low: AU$5.97 The company is down 10.0% from its price of AU$6.65 on 13 November 2020. The Australian market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Infrastructure industry, which is down 11% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is AU$3.15 per share. Announcement • Feb 01
Atlas Arteria Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Feb 25, 2021 Atlas Arteria Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2020 results Pre-Market on Feb 25, 2021 
