Swatch Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of UHR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

UHR (CHF184.05) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF253.89)

Is UHR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UHR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UHR (CHF184.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF253.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UHR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UHR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for UHR. This is calculated by dividing UHR's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is UHR's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CHF 9.53b

UHR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4.9x
PEG Ratio	9.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UHR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UHR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.1x
CFR Compagnie Financière Richemont	22.5x	7.4%	CHF 82.8b
RL Ralph Lauren	17x	7.1%	US$11.0b
TPR Tapestry	11.2x	11.4%	US$9.8b
PNDORA Pandora	17.6x	10.2%	DKK 85.0b
UHR Swatch Group	11x	1.1%	CHF 9.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UHR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the peer average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UHR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Luxury Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	9.8%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	9.8%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UHR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the European Luxury industry average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UHR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UHR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	11x
Fair PE Ratio	13.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UHR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UHR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CHF 184.05	CHF 223.55 +21.5%	16.7%	CHF 368.00	CHF 190.00	n/a	20
Jun ’25	CHF 193.15	CHF 228.55 +18.3%	15.8%	CHF 368.00	CHF 190.00	n/a	20
May ’25	CHF 193.65	CHF 230.55 +19.1%	15.7%	CHF 368.00	CHF 190.00	n/a	20
Apr ’25	CHF 209.40	CHF 239.05 +14.2%	17.7%	CHF 368.00	CHF 200.00	n/a	21
Mar ’25	CHF 211.90	CHF 238.64 +12.6%	17.3%	CHF 368.00	CHF 200.00	n/a	22
Feb ’25	CHF 201.70	CHF 244.95 +21.4%	16.3%	CHF 368.00	CHF 202.00	n/a	22
Jan ’25	CHF 228.60	CHF 281.32 +23.1%	14.7%	CHF 368.00	CHF 235.00	n/a	22
Dec ’24	CHF 230.80	CHF 290.95 +26.1%	14.6%	CHF 368.00	CHF 235.00	n/a	22
Nov ’24	CHF 234.70	CHF 297.09 +26.6%	14.5%	CHF 368.00	CHF 235.00	n/a	22
Oct ’24	CHF 235.40	CHF 305.32 +29.7%	13.8%	CHF 368.00	CHF 240.00	n/a	22
Sep ’24	CHF 251.30	CHF 320.22 +27.4%	15.0%	CHF 400.00	CHF 200.00	n/a	23
Aug ’24	CHF 278.40	CHF 320.65 +15.2%	15.1%	CHF 400.00	CHF 200.00	n/a	23
Jul ’24	CHF 261.10	CHF 321.86 +23.3%	13.4%	CHF 400.00	CHF 200.00	n/a	22
Jun ’24	CHF 260.60	CHF 332.18 +27.5%	13.4%	CHF 400.00	CHF 180.00	CHF 193.15	22
May ’24	CHF 304.60	CHF 332.41 +9.1%	13.5%	CHF 400.00	CHF 180.00	CHF 193.65	22
Apr ’24	CHF 313.40	CHF 332.41 +6.1%	13.5%	CHF 400.00	CHF 180.00	CHF 209.40	22
Mar ’24	CHF 332.10	CHF 328.26 -1.2%	13.0%	CHF 375.00	CHF 180.00	CHF 211.90	23
Feb ’24	CHF 328.10	CHF 317.67 -3.2%	13.8%	CHF 375.00	CHF 180.00	CHF 201.70	24
Jan ’24	CHF 263.00	CHF 274.74 +4.5%	14.5%	CHF 350.00	CHF 180.00	CHF 228.60	23
Dec ’23	CHF 252.70	CHF 273.83 +8.4%	14.6%	CHF 350.00	CHF 180.00	CHF 230.80	23
Nov ’23	CHF 232.50	CHF 281.68 +21.2%	13.8%	CHF 360.00	CHF 220.00	CHF 234.70	22
Oct ’23	CHF 224.50	CHF 281.86 +25.6%	13.7%	CHF 360.00	CHF 220.00	CHF 235.40	22
Sep ’23	CHF 227.70	CHF 286.14 +25.7%	13.6%	CHF 360.00	CHF 230.00	CHF 251.30	22
Aug ’23	CHF 252.60	CHF 292.61 +15.8%	14.7%	CHF 380.00	CHF 230.00	CHF 278.40	23
Jul ’23	CHF 225.90	CHF 306.62 +35.7%	14.2%	CHF 385.00	CHF 237.00	CHF 261.10	21
Jun ’23	CHF 244.90	CHF 313.76 +28.1%	12.1%	CHF 385.00	CHF 254.00	CHF 260.60	21

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.