Novartis AG

SWX:NOVN Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 196.0b

Novartis Valuation

Is NOVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NOVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CHF 272.42
Fair Value
62.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NOVN (CHF101.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF272.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NOVN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOVN?

Key metric: As NOVN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOVN. This is calculated by dividing NOVN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOVN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.8x
EarningsUS$13.65b
Market CapUS$242.91b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOVN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average71.8x
ROG Roche Holding
23.4x13.39%CHF 222.9b
GALD Galderma Group
106.7x32.03%CHF 32.5b
SDZ Sandoz Group
118.9x27.94%CHF 21.8b
DESN Dottikon ES Holding
38.2xn/aCHF 4.0b
NOVN Novartis
17.8x8.01%CHF 196.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the peer average (71.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOVN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NOVN 17.8xIndustry Avg. 21.1xNo. of Companies10PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (21.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOVN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOVN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.8x
Fair PE Ratio40.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOVN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 101.24
CHF 99.01
-2.20%
10.92%CHF 119.60CHF 79.36n/a17
Aug ’26CHF 94.19
CHF 98.72
+4.81%
10.68%CHF 115.82CHF 78.03n/a18
Jul ’26CHF 97.90
CHF 94.55
-3.43%
11.07%CHF 111.16CHF 73.61n/a19
Jun ’26CHF 94.03
CHF 97.47
+3.66%
10.62%CHF 114.90CHF 76.43n/a19
May ’26CHF 93.79
CHF 98.38
+4.89%
10.73%CHF 115.86CHF 78.01n/a19
Apr ’26CHF 98.42
CHF 100.83
+2.45%
10.12%CHF 121.46CHF 82.06n/a20
Mar ’26CHF 97.66
CHF 102.53
+4.99%
10.20%CHF 124.06CHF 83.82n/a21
Feb ’26CHF 95.58
CHF 103.40
+8.18%
10.48%CHF 125.15CHF 84.55n/a20
Jan ’26CHF 88.70
CHF 103.68
+16.89%
10.56%CHF 124.55CHF 84.15n/a19
Dec ’25CHF 93.27
CHF 101.78
+9.12%
9.67%CHF 120.99CHF 85.33n/a19
Nov ’25CHF 95.49
CHF 102.00
+6.81%
9.39%CHF 119.64CHF 85.45n/a19
Oct ’25CHF 96.81
CHF 99.03
+2.29%
9.13%CHF 114.46CHF 85.16n/a19
Sep ’25CHF 102.12
CHF 97.78
-4.25%
9.84%CHF 113.82CHF 80.50n/a20
Aug ’25CHF 98.58
CHF 101.16
+2.62%
10.26%CHF 118.70CHF 83.96CHF 94.1920
Jul ’25CHF 96.72
CHF 99.52
+2.89%
11.30%CHF 118.94CHF 76.04CHF 97.9020
Jun ’25CHF 93.17
CHF 98.24
+5.44%
10.82%CHF 117.30CHF 75.97CHF 94.0319
May ’25CHF 89.05
CHF 98.98
+11.15%
11.19%CHF 119.11CHF 74.61CHF 93.7918
Apr ’25CHF 87.37
CHF 97.95
+12.11%
11.48%CHF 115.90CHF 74.48CHF 98.4218
Mar ’25CHF 90.14
CHF 96.18
+6.70%
11.34%CHF 112.69CHF 73.48CHF 97.6618
Feb ’25CHF 90.54
CHF 94.50
+4.37%
11.12%CHF 109.90CHF 74.57CHF 95.5818
Jan ’25CHF 84.87
CHF 90.96
+7.18%
10.16%CHF 106.89CHF 73.97CHF 88.7018
Dec ’24CHF 85.38
CHF 91.69
+7.39%
10.73%CHF 108.52CHF 72.86CHF 93.2718
Nov ’24CHF 85.21
CHF 95.13
+11.64%
10.49%CHF 111.59CHF 75.42CHF 95.4918
Oct ’24CHF 93.87
CHF 102.41
+9.10%
10.95%CHF 118.23CHF 81.87CHF 96.8118
Sep ’24CHF 89.35
CHF 100.83
+12.84%
9.81%CHF 114.09CHF 81.59CHF 102.1218
Aug ’24CHF 91.07
CHF 99.49
+9.25%
10.08%CHF 112.21CHF 80.24CHF 98.5817
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 17 Analysts
CHF 99.01
Fair Value
2.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/08/25 10:52
End of Day Share Price 2025/08/25 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Novartis AG is covered by 75 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kamla SinghAlphaValue
John EadeArgus Research Company
Fabrizio SpagnaAxia Financial Research