Avolta Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of AVOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AVOL (CHF35.32) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF47.58)

Is AVOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVOL (CHF35.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF47.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVOL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVOL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AVOL. This is calculated by dividing AVOL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AVOL's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CHF 5.31b

AVOL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.1x
PEG Ratio	1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AVOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AVOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27.1x
9992 Pop Mart International Group	40.1x	23.2%	HK$46.7b
8136 Sanrio Company	41.5x	16.3%	JP¥729.5b
FIVE Five Below	19.8x	11.3%	US$6.0b
FRAS Frasers Group	7x	-9.1%	UK£3.7b
AVOL Avolta	60.8x	32.7%	CHF 5.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AVOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.8x) compared to the peer average (27.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AVOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	13.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	13.1%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AVOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.8x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	60.8x
Fair PE Ratio	37x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AVOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CHF 35.32	CHF 48.93 +38.5%	15.1%	CHF 60.00	CHF 37.00	n/a	14
Jun ’25	CHF 36.56	CHF 48.93 +33.8%	15.1%	CHF 60.00	CHF 37.00	n/a	14
May ’25	CHF 34.98	CHF 48.64 +39.1%	15.7%	CHF 60.00	CHF 37.00	n/a	14
Apr ’25	CHF 37.53	CHF 48.64 +29.6%	15.7%	CHF 60.00	CHF 37.00	n/a	14
Mar ’25	CHF 34.97	CHF 48.27 +38.0%	15.3%	CHF 60.00	CHF 37.00	n/a	15
Feb ’25	CHF 32.88	CHF 48.93 +48.8%	14.9%	CHF 60.00	CHF 37.00	n/a	14
Jan ’25	CHF 33.08	CHF 49.00 +48.1%	15.2%	CHF 61.00	CHF 37.00	n/a	14
Dec ’24	CHF 30.79	CHF 49.57 +61.0%	13.6%	CHF 61.00	CHF 40.00	n/a	14
Nov ’24	CHF 32.35	CHF 50.58 +56.3%	13.9%	CHF 62.00	CHF 40.00	n/a	16
Oct ’24	CHF 34.91	CHF 50.20 +43.8%	14.5%	CHF 61.00	CHF 40.00	n/a	16
Sep ’24	CHF 39.25	CHF 50.07 +27.6%	14.2%	CHF 61.00	CHF 40.00	n/a	17
Aug ’24	CHF 44.94	CHF 49.54 +10.2%	14.5%	CHF 60.00	CHF 38.00	n/a	17
Jul ’24	CHF 40.76	CHF 49.36 +21.1%	14.5%	CHF 60.00	CHF 37.00	CHF 35.56	17
Jun ’24	CHF 40.50	CHF 49.45 +22.1%	14.2%	CHF 58.00	CHF 37.00	CHF 36.56	16
May ’24	CHF 41.07	CHF 49.61 +20.8%	15.2%	CHF 58.00	CHF 37.00	CHF 34.98	15
Apr ’24	CHF 40.61	CHF 49.20 +21.2%	15.2%	CHF 58.00	CHF 37.00	CHF 37.53	16
Mar ’24	CHF 41.64	CHF 47.68 +14.5%	15.9%	CHF 58.00	CHF 35.00	CHF 34.97	15
Feb ’24	CHF 41.98	CHF 47.44 +13.0%	17.5%	CHF 58.00	CHF 30.00	CHF 32.88	14
Jan ’24	CHF 38.51	CHF 46.66 +21.2%	17.1%	CHF 58.00	CHF 30.00	CHF 33.08	14
Dec ’23	CHF 38.41	CHF 46.66 +21.5%	17.1%	CHF 58.00	CHF 30.00	CHF 30.79	14
Nov ’23	CHF 33.13	CHF 46.09 +39.1%	18.6%	CHF 58.00	CHF 30.00	CHF 32.35	14
Oct ’23	CHF 30.37	CHF 48.32 +59.1%	14.2%	CHF 58.00	CHF 36.00	CHF 34.91	13
Sep ’23	CHF 36.03	CHF 48.28 +34.0%	14.6%	CHF 58.00	CHF 36.00	CHF 39.25	13
Aug ’23	CHF 35.72	CHF 49.20 +37.7%	16.5%	CHF 61.00	CHF 36.00	CHF 44.94	11
Jul ’23	CHF 31.25	CHF 49.77 +59.3%	17.6%	CHF 61.00	CHF 36.00	CHF 40.76	12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.