Live News • Jun 02
Sable Offshore Shares Fall as Santa Ynez Reserves Unveiled and Pipeline Questions Persist Sable Offshore released an updated reserves and operations outlook for its Santa Ynez Unit, citing net reserves of 659 million barrels of oil equivalent with a PV-10 valuation of US$6.07b based on Brent strip pricing.
The company targets a fully ramped gross production rate of about 62,000 Boe per day by 2027, with projected adjusted EBITDA between US$738m and US$985m. It is also planning to refinance its Exxon term loan maturing in June 2026 and to add commodity hedges.
Shares recently fell 11.13% after lawmakers questioned Sable’s efforts to restart offshore production near Santa Barbara and its reliance on the Defense Production Act, requesting internal records dating back to January 2024.
The combination of large certified reserves, a defined production ramp-up plan, and upcoming refinancing needs places a spotlight on execution risk and, in particular, on how federal and state regulatory tensions around the Santa Ynez pipeline system are resolved.
For investors, the key swing factors are progress on bringing the Hondo platform online, clarity around PHMSA’s oversight of the pipeline, and any outcome from the lawmakers’ inquiry that could affect timing, costs, or conditions attached to future production and cash flow. New Risk • May 07
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -US$761m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-US$761m free cash flow). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (65% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (16% average weekly change). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$14m sold). Revenue is less than US$5m (US$1.3m revenue). Announcement • May 05
Sable Offshore Corp., Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026 Sable Offshore Corp., Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 07
Executive VP recently sold US$4.7m worth of stock On the 31st of March, Anthony Duenner sold around 279k shares on-market at roughly US$16.69 per share. This transaction amounted to 35% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$9.3m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 31
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2026 The 3 analysts covering Sable Offshore previously expected the company to break even in 2027. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of US$160.2m in 2026. Earnings growth of 92% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 31
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.58 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 losses forecast to reduce from -US$2.23 to -US$0.583 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from US$438.5m at last update. Oil and Gas industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 26% next year. Consensus price target up from US$26.00 to US$31.50. Share price rose 13% to US$17.84 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 25
Price target increased by 12% to US$28.50 Up from US$25.50, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 61% above last closing price of US$17.69. Stock is down 32% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$2.23 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$4.18 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 17
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12%, EPS downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from US$313.8m to US$350.3m. EPS estimate fell from -US$1.09 to -US$2.23 per share. Oil and Gas industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 15% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$26.00. Share price rose 20% to US$17.23 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 01
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2026 The 3 analysts covering Sable Offshore previously expected the company to break even in 2027. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of US$6.80m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 92% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Feb 03
Sable Offshore Corp. has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of $250 million. Sable Offshore Corp. has filed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of $250 million.
Security Name: Common Stock
Security Type: Common Stock
Transaction Features: At the Market Offering Price Target Changed • Jan 21
Price target increased by 15% to US$24.40 Up from US$21.20, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 111% above last closing price of US$11.58. Stock is down 59% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$4.16 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$9.21 last year. Announcement • Nov 27
Sable Offshore Corp. Announces Executive Changes, Effective November 20, 2025 On November 20, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. announced a series of management changes. The changes include the promotion of J. Caldwell Flores, the current President of the Company, to President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company. Mr. Flores is an executive officer of the Company, as such term is defined in Rule 3b-7 promulgated under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and additional biographical information about Mr. Flores can be found in the Company’s definitive proxy statement for the 2025 annual meeting of shareholders, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 17, 2025. In connection with these management changes, Doss Bourgeois transitioned from Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company to Vice Chairman of the Company, effective November 20, 2025. The Company also made the below appointments and changes, effective November 20, 2025. None of the individuals listed below is an executive officer of the Company, as such term is defined in Rule 3b-7 promulgated under the Exchange Act. Trent Fontenot: Senior Vice President of Operations; Brian Broussard: Senior Vice President of Development; Byron Olson: Vice President, Reservoir Engineering. Announcement • Nov 10
Sable Offshore Corp. announced that it expects to receive $250.000003 million in funding Sable Offshore Corp. announced that it has entered into subscription agreements to issue 45,454,546 common shares at an issue price of $5.50 per share for gross proceeds of $250,000,003 before deducting placement agent fees and other offering expenses on November 10, 2025. The transaction includes participation from institutional investors. The private placement is expected to close on November 12, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. The shares of common stock being issued and sold in the private placement have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or applicable state securities laws and may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an effective registration statement or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Sable has agreed to file a registration statement to register the resale of the shares of common stock being sold in the private placement. Breakeven Date Change • Nov 04
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2027 The 3 analysts covering Sable Offshore previously expected the company to break even in 2026. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 99% per year to 2026. The company is expected to make a profit of US$403.7m in 2027. Average annual earnings growth of 93% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Oct 15
Sable Offshore Corp. Announces Statement on California Coastal Commission Litigation Sable Offshore Corp. provided an update regarding its ongoing litigation with the California Coastal Commission (“Coastal Commission”). In the Santa Barbara Superior Court’s tentative ruling released on October 14, 2025, the court indicated that it will deny Sable’s claims against the Coastal Commission. Sable vigorously disagrees with the court’s tentative ruling. If adopted after the court’s hearing scheduled on October 15, the ruling would have no impact on the resumption of petroleum transportation through the Las Flores Pipeline System. Additionally, oil and gas production from the federal Santa Ynez Unit and the flow of petroleum from the Santa Ynez Unit to the Las Flores Canyon processing facilities or to a potential Offshore Storage & Treating Vessel (“OS&T”) would be unaffected by rulings in the Coastal Commission litigation. Sable nevertheless intends to appeal this ruling to the California Court of Appeal if the ruling is adopted by the Santa Barbara Superior Court. Sable is suing the Coastal Commission for the damages it has caused Sable by erroneously issuing cease and desist orders during Sable’s anomaly repair program on the Las Flores Pipeline System. The anomaly repair program and hydrotesting of the Las Flores Pipeline System was completed in May 2025 in accordance with the Federal Consent Decree. Sable intends to continue its pursuit of the writ of mandate in the Court of Appeal as well as declaratory relief and inverse condemnation claims in excess of approximately $347 million. Sable continues to work diligently with the State of California to safely and responsibly resume petroleum transportation through the Las Flores Pipeline System in accordance with the Federal Consent Decree. Continued delays in approving the Restart Plans for the Las Flores Pipeline System could prompt Sable to pursue the accelerated OS&T strategy, which was utilized to process Santa Ynez Unit production in federal waters from 1981 – 1994. During that time period, the Santa Ynez Unit produced over 160 million barrels of oil equivalent. Regardless of whether California approves the resumption of petroleum transportation through the Las Flores Pipeline System, Sable plans to pursue the OS&T strategy which Sable believes will allow it to refinance its existing term loan. New Risk • Aug 13
New minor risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow. Free cash flow: -US$473m This is considered a minor risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (53% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$1m. Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$473m). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (13% average weekly change). Announcement • Aug 08
Levi & Korsinsky, LLP Notifies Investors in Sable Offshore Corp. of A Class Action Securities Lawsuit Levi & Korsinsky, LLP notifies investors in Sable Offshore Corp. of a class action securities lawsuit. The lawsuit seeks to recover losses on behalf of Sable Offshore Corp. investors who were adversely affected by alleged securities fraud. This lawsuit is on behalf of persons or entities who purchased or otherwise acquired publicly traded Sable Offshore securities between May 19, 2025 and June 3, 2025, inclusive, and/or pursuant and/or traceable to the Company's May 21, 2025 secondary public offering. The filed complaint alleges that defendants made false statements and/or concealed that: (1) defendants represented that Sable Offshore Corp. had restarted oil production off the coast of California when it had not; and (2) as a result, defendants statements about Sables business, operations, and prospects, were materially false and misleading and/or lacked a reasonable basis at all relevant times. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages. Announcement • Jul 11
Sable Offshore Corp. Files Notice of Appeal of the Superior Court's May 28, 2025 Order Granting Application for Preliminary Injunction On July 9, 2025, in the matter of Sable Offshore Corp., et al. v. California Coastal Commission, et al., the Santa Barbara County Superior Court denied a motion to stay the California Coastal Commission’s April 10, 2025 Cease and Desist Order regarding Sable Offshore Corp.’s maintenance and repair work in the coastal zone. Also on July 9, 2025, Sable filed a Notice of Appeal of the Superior Court’s May 28, 2025 Order Granting Application for Preliminary Injunction. Sable intends to prosecute this appeal in the California Court of Appeal in an effort to lift the Order. Sable continues to produce from the Santa Ynez Unit and flow to the crude oil storage tanks at Las Flores Canyon in anticipation of receiving approval to restart the Las Flores Pipeline System, with first oil sales expected August 1, 2025. Announcement • May 20
Sable Offshore Corp. Updates Production Guidance for the Second Half of 2025 Sable Offshore Corp. updated production guidance for the second half of 2025. For the period, the company expects Net Average Daily Production of 40,000 BOE/D to 50,000 BOE/D against 20,000 BOE/D to 25,000 BOE/D. Price Target Changed • May 19
Price target increased by 9.9% to US$31.33 Up from US$28.50, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 5.1% below last closing price of US$33.02. Stock is up 143% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$0.16 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$9.21 last year. Price Target Changed • May 16
Price target increased by 13% to US$32.20 Up from US$28.50, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 12% above last closing price of US$28.86. Stock is up 110% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$1.68 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$9.21 last year. New Risk • May 12
New minor risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow. Free cash flow: -US$310m This is considered a minor risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (49% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$1m. Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-US$310m). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (14% average weekly change). New Risk • May 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 104% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings have declined by 104% per year over the past 5 years. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (48% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$1m. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (14% average weekly change). Announcement • Apr 19
Sable Offshore Corp., Annual General Meeting, Jun 11, 2025 Sable Offshore Corp., Annual General Meeting, Jun 11, 2025. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 27
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026 The 2 analysts covering Sable Offshore previously expected the company to break even in 2025. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 91% to 2025. The company is expected to make a profit of US$145.7m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 117% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Mar 19
Sable Offshore Corp. Auditor Raises 'Going Concern' Doubt Sable Offshore Corp. filed its 10-K on Mar 17, 2025 for the period ending Dec 31, 2024. In this report its auditor, Ham, Langston & Brezina, LLP, gave an unqualified opinion expressing doubt that the company can continue as a going concern. Announcement • Mar 18
Sable Offshore Corp. Provides Production Guidance for the Second Half of 2025 Sable Offshore Corp. provided production guidance for the second half of 2025. For the period, the company expects Net Average Daily Production of 20,000 BOE/D ? 25,000 BOE/D. Price Target Changed • Feb 18
Price target increased by 12% to US$28.80 Up from US$25.80, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 8.0% below last closing price of US$31.31. Stock is up 161% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$6.14 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$1.78 last year. New Risk • Feb 13
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of American stocks, typically moving 13% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (over 5x increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$1m. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (13% average weekly change). Announcement • Jan 02
Sable Offshore Corp. Provides Update on Litigation Status Sable Offshore Corp. provided an update on the previously disclosed Center for Biological Diversity et al. v. Debra Haaland et al. lawsuit (the “Haaland lawsuit”). On December 20, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice (in its capacity as counsel for the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, or “BSEE”) filed a motion to remand without vacatur the Haaland lawsuit to BSEE for BSEE to reconsider its 2023 decision approving an extension to resume operations on the leases for the Santa Ynez Unit. Assuming the motion is granted, Sable intends to cooperate with the government to facilitate an expeditious review and that the government’s prior extensions to resume operations were both appropriate and authorized. Moreover, under the government’s proposed remand, Sable’s operations on the Santa Ynez Unit remain unaffected. In the event that any non-governmental third party attempts to unlawfully interfere with Sable from restarting the Santa Ynez Unit, which contains net estimated contingent resources currently valued at over $10 billion, Sable is prepared to vigorously pursue all available legal remedies. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Oct 25
Executive VP exercised options to buy US$1.0m worth of stock. On the 23rd of October, Anthony Duenner exercised options to buy 50k shares at a strike price of around US$11.50, costing a total of US$575k. This transaction amounted to 6.7% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Anthony now holds 750.00k shares directly in their own name. Company insiders have collectively sold US$381k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. New Risk • Oct 24
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next year. Trailing 12-month net loss: US$332m Forecast net loss in 1 year: US$82m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (423% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$1m. Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (US$82m net loss next year). Board Change • Oct 15
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Michael Dillard was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Sep 24
Price target increased by 15% to US$31.33 Up from US$27.33, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 27% above last closing price of US$24.73. Stock is up 137% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of US$6.06 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$1.78 last year. Announcement • Sep 20
Sable Offshore Corp. announced that it expects to receive $150 million in funding Sable Offshore Corp. announced it has entered into subscription agreements to issue 7,500,000 shares of its common stock in a private placement to institutional investors for gross proceeds of approximately $150 million. The private placement is expected to close on September 23, 2024 New Risk • Sep 03
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of American stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (315% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$1m. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$1.2m sold). Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 10
Independent Director recently sold US$1.2m worth of stock On the 5th of June, Gregory Pipkin sold around 82k shares on-market at roughly US$14.66 per share. This transaction amounted to 49% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth US$2.7m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of US$956k more than they bought in the last 12 months. Announcement • May 26
U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Approves Assignments of Record Title Interest from Exxon Mobil Corporation to Sable Offshore Corp On May 21, 2024, the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (“BOEM”) approved Assignments of Record Title Interest from Exxon Mobil Corporation to Sable Offshore Corp. in 16 Federal Oil and Gas Leases comprising the Santa Ynez Unit. On May 22, 2024, the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (“BSEE”) approved Sable Offshore Corp. as Operator of the Santa Ynez Unit. The unit covers approximately 76,000 acres situated offshore California in the Pacific Region of the United States Outer Continental Shelf. Recent Insider Transactions • May 23
Executive VP & COO recently sold US$2.7m worth of stock On the 21st of May, Doss Bourgeois sold around 200k shares on-market at roughly US$13.49 per share. This transaction amounted to 24% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Doss' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Feb 19
Chairman & CEO recently bought US$200k worth of stock On the 13th of February, James Flores bought around 18k shares on-market at roughly US$11.43 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was James' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. New Risk • Feb 18
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 67% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Negative equity (-US$26m). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (67% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$1m. Announcement • Feb 08
Flame Acquisition Corp. announced that it expects to receive $0.535 million in funding from Flame Acquisition Sponsor LLC Flame Acquisition Corp. announced a private placement of $535,000 in debt round of funding on February 6, 2023. The company issued unsecured promissory note in the transaction. The transaction included participation from returning investor Flame Acquisition Sponsor LLC. Board Change • Dec 31
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 4 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 4 new directors. No experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Chairman, CEO & President James Flores is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s lack of experienced directors is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 11
Chairman recently bought US$76k worth of stock On the 6th of December, James Flores bought around 8k shares on-market at roughly US$10.10 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was James' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. 
