Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: JP¥2.04 loss per share (improved from JP¥2.32 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥10.2b (up 25% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: JP¥62.0m (loss narrowed 17% from 1Q 2025). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 21% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • May 09
Medley, Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results at 9:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 13, 2026 Major Estimate Revision • Feb 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from JP¥94.78 to JP¥83.74 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥46.3b. Net income forecast to grow 165% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,228. Share price fell 5.4% to JP¥2,036 over the past week. New Risk • Feb 18
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 30% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (51% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.7% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥30.60 (down from JP¥86.16 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥36.8b (up 26% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥975.0m (down 65% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 2.7% (down from 9.5% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 36%. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 21% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 13
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.3% to JP¥2,157. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥2,793, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 32% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 13%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 15% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 24% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Dec 27
Medley, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Feb 13, 2026 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Feb 13, 2026 Major Estimate Revision • Dec 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 19% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥58.86 to JP¥47.72 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥37.3b. Net income forecast to grow 61% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,200. Share price was steady at JP¥2,396 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 22% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from JP¥83.07 to JP¥64.68 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥37.7b. Net income forecast to grow 99% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥3,530 to JP¥3,370. Share price rose 17% to JP¥2,667 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 21
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to JP¥2,667, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 27x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 35% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥3,535 per share. New Risk • Nov 18
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 11% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (11% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.0% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.5% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥14.73 (up from JP¥9.70 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥9.07b (up 31% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥467.0m (up 48% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.1% (up from 4.5% in 3Q 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 24%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Nov 14
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,500,000 shares, representing 4.58% for ¥3,000 million. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 1,500,000 shares, representing 4.8% for ¥3,000 million. The purpose of the program is to respond flexibly to changes in share price and to return profits to shareholders. The repurchase program is valid till March 31, 2026. As of October 31, 2025, the company had 32,738,600 shares (excluding treasury stock) and 1,360,686 shares in treasury. Announcement • Sep 03
Medley, Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 14, 2025 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 14, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 21
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to JP¥2,730, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24x. Average forward P/E is 24x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 20% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥4,472 per share. New Risk • Aug 19
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 133% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.3% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥22.36 (down from JP¥47.47 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥10.3b (up 18% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥722.0m (down 53% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.0% (down from 18% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 50%. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Jul 15
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.2% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥3,490, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 31x. Average forward P/E is 22x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 27% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥6,673 per share. Announcement • May 31
Medley, Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 14, 2025 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 14, 2025 New Risk • May 18
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 7.2% Last year net profit margin: 12% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 14
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.3% to JP¥3,595. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,578, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 33% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 47%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 17% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 23% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to JP¥3,260, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 32x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 16% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥4,369 per share. Board Change • Apr 11
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 2 non-independent directors. Independent External Director Rina Sakuraba was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥86.16 (up from JP¥79.52 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥29.3b (up 43% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥2.80b (up 9.0% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 9.5% (down from 13% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 27
Medley, Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 14, 2025 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 14, 2025 Announcement • Mar 11
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) announces an Equity Buyback for 350,000 shares, representing 1.07% for ¥1,000 million. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 350,000 shares, representing 1.07% for ¥1,000 million. The purpose of the program is to respond flexibly to changes in share price and to return profits to shareholders. The repurchase program is valid till September 30, 2025. As of March 10, 2025, the company had 32,738,600 shares (excluding treasury stock) and 396,069 shares in treasury. Price Target Changed • Feb 27
Price target decreased by 12% to JP¥4,738 Down from JP¥5,363, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 65% above last closing price of JP¥2,872. Stock is down 43% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥104 for next year compared to JP¥86.16 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 21
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 20% After last week's 20% share price decline to JP¥2,910, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 42% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥2,795 per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥86.16 (up from JP¥79.52 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥29.3b (up 43% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥2.80b (up 9.0% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 9.5% (down from 13% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 22% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 16
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) announces an Equity Buyback for 400,000 shares, representing 1.22% for ¥1,500 million. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 400,000 shares, representing 1.2% for ¥1,500 million. The purpose of the program is to respond flexibly to changes in share price and to return profits to shareholders. The program is valid till June 30, 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the company had 32,738,600 shares (excluding treasury stock) and 218,285 shares in treasury. Announcement • Feb 14
Medley, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025 Medley, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 14
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 9.1% to JP¥3,645. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,809, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 33% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 55%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 21% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 27% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Jan 24
Medley, Inc. announced that it expects to receive funding from Alfresa Corporation Medley, Inc. announced a private placement to issue common shares on January 23, 2025. The transaction will include participation from new investor Alfresa Corporation. Announcement • Jan 23
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire 75.4% stake in AxisRoot Holdings, Inc. from Kazuma Kondo, Bewith, Inc. (TSE:9216) and Tsuzuki Gakuen Educational Corporation for ¥6.1 billion. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire 75.4% stake in AxisRoot Holdings, Inc. from Kazuma Kondo, Bewith, Inc. (TSE:9216) and Tsuzuki Gakuen Educational Corporation for ¥6.1 billion on January 23, 2025. Thereafter, a reverse stock split will be carried out for the common shares of AxisRoot Holdings. The ratio of the reverse stock split will be determined in such manner that only the Company and Alfresa Corporation will own the common stock of AxisRoot Holdings and the number of shares held by minority shareholders of AxisRoot Holdings will be less than one share. All outstanding stock acquisition rights of AxisRoot Holdings are scheduled to be exercised in connection with the reverse stock split. After the reverse stock split and purchase of fractional shares, Medley will acquire 7.4% of the common stock of AxisRoot Holdings held by Alfresa Corporation via the share exchange, thereby converting AxisRoot Holdings into a wholly owned subsidiary of Medley and Alfresa Corporation will hold 0.5% of the outstanding shares of Medley.
For the period ending February 29, 2024, AxisRoot Holdings, Inc. reported total revenue of ¥1.74 billion, EBIT of ¥258 million, net income of ¥167 million and EBITDA of ¥295 million. As of February 29, 2024, AxisRoot Holdings, Inc. reported total assets of ¥1.31 billion and total common equity of ¥898 million.
The expected completion of the transaction is January 31, 2025. Announcement • Dec 03
Medley, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Feb 14, 2025 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Feb 14, 2025 Announcement • Nov 21
Hiroshi Oda signed a letter of intent to acquire MEDiPASS Co., Ltd. from Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) for approximately ¥930 million. Hiroshi Oda signed a letter of intent to acquire MEDiPASS Co., Ltd. from Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) for approximately ¥930 million on November 20, 2024. A cash consideration of ¥928 million will be paid by Hiroshi Oda.
The expected completion of the transaction is January 6, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 21
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to JP¥4,375, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 49% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥7,909 per share. New Risk • Nov 16
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 26% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥9.70 (up from JP¥9.08 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥6.94b (up 45% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥315.0m (up 7.5% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.5% (down from 6.1% in 3Q 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 49%. Revenue is forecast to grow 26% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 14
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) signed a letter of intent to acquire Asfon Trust Network Inc. from Taro Nagamori for ¥1.3 billion. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) signed a letter of intent to acquire Asfon Trust Network Inc. from Taro Nagamori for ¥1.3 billion on November 14, 2024. A cash consideration of ¥1.3 billion will be paid by Medley, Inc. As part of consideration, ¥1.3 billion is paid towards common equity of Asfon Trust Network Inc.
The expected agreement date is November 15, 2024, and completion of the transaction is January 6, 2025. Announcement • Oct 01
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire Offshore Co., Ltd. from Nine States No. 4 Investment Limited Partnership and Fukuoka Capital Partners Co., Ltd. and three other shareholders for ¥2.6 billion. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire Offshore Co., Ltd. from Nine States No. 4 Investment Limited Partnership and Fukuoka Capital Partners Co., Ltd. and three other shareholders for ¥2.6 billion on September 30, 2024.
The actual acquisition price is expected to be the adjusted amount to be determined at the time of execution of the share acquisition. Although the currently expected acquisition price is disclosed, the final acquisition price may vary depending on the amount of the price adjustment. Medley, Inc. will also pay advisory fee and related cost of ¥120 million.
For the period ending March 31, 2024, Offshore Co., Ltd. reported total revenue of ¥1.04 billion, EBIT of ¥277 million, net income of ¥68 million and EBITDA of ¥280 million. As of March 31, 2024, Offshore Co., Ltd. reported total assets of ¥2.56 billion and total common equity of ¥1.5 billion.
The expected completion of the transaction is October 1, 2024. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 01
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥3,950, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 6.8% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥7,869 per share. Announcement • Aug 27
Medley, Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 14, 2024 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 14, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 21
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥3,125, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 27x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 21% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥47.47 (up from JP¥47.30 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥8.76b (up 40% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥1.54b (up 1.0% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 18% (down from 24% in 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 29%. Revenue is forecast to grow 25% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 23% After last week's 23% share price decline to JP¥3,215, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 29x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 19% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to JP¥4,170, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 38x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 6.0% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥7,108 per share. Announcement • Jun 02
Medley, Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 14, 2024 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Aug 14, 2024 New Risk • May 31
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥14.37 (up from JP¥11.13 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥5.95b (up 34% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥466.0m (up 30% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 7.8% (down from 8.1% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 62%. Revenue is forecast to grow 22% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 15
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 13% to JP¥3,995. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥5,105, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 34% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 21% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 24% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Mar 30
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥79.52 (up from JP¥31.75 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥20.5b (up 45% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥2.57b (up 152% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 13% (up from 7.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 21%. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 18
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 4.6% to JP¥4,820. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,978, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 34% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 20% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 22% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 29
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥28.5b to JP¥29.1b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥83.23 to JP¥92.66 per share. Net income forecast to grow 19% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥5,865 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 5.4% to JP¥5,050 over the past week. Announcement • Feb 28
Medley, Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 14, 2024 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 14, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Feb 21
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥25.9b to JP¥28.5b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥81.86 to JP¥83.23 per share. Net income forecast to grow 4.9% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥6,115 to JP¥5,865. Share price rose 9.3% to JP¥4,815 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥79.52 (up from JP¥31.75 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥20.5b (up 45% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥2.57b (up 152% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 13% (up from 7.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 21%. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 16
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 1.4% to JP¥4,650. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,771, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 34% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 21% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 23% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Feb 14
Medley, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Mar 26, 2024 Medley, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Mar 26, 2024. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to JP¥4,705, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 58x. Average forward P/E is 23x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Negligible returns to shareholders over past three years. Announcement • Dec 05
Medley, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 14, 2024 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Feb 14, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥9.08 (up from JP¥0.37 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥4.79b (up 39% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥293.0m (up JP¥305.0m from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 6.1% (up from net loss in 3Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 8.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 61% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Oct 26
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire Lalune business of Ateam Wellness, K.K. for ¥500 million. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire Lalune business of Ateam Wellness, K.K. for ¥500 million on October 24, 2023. Board of Directors resolution and date of conclusion of absorption-type company split agreement is October 24, 2023. The transaction is expected to complete on February 1, 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 30
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥19.0b to JP¥19.5b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥57.69 to JP¥65.37 per share. Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥6,625 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥4,805 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 29
Price target increased by 11% to JP¥6,625 Up from JP¥5,950, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 38% above last closing price of JP¥4,805. Stock is up 93% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥61.57 for next year compared to JP¥31.75 last year. Announcement • Aug 27
Medley, Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 14, 2023 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 14, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • Aug 23
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 23% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥18.3b to JP¥18.9b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥46.58 to JP¥57.41 per share. Net income forecast to grow 5.2% next year vs 35% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥4,950 to JP¥5,950. Share price fell 2.9% to JP¥5,680 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 22
Price target increased by 24% to JP¥5,950 Up from JP¥4,800, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 6.3% above last closing price of JP¥5,600. Stock is up 70% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥57.41 for next year compared to JP¥31.75 last year. New Risk • Aug 17
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 27% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.5% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥47.30 (vs JP¥31.21 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥47.30 (up from JP¥31.21 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥6.27b (up 50% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥1.53b (up 53% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 24% (in line with 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from JP¥18.2b to JP¥18.8b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥38.47 to JP¥44.14 per share. Net income forecast to grow 8.4% next year vs 35% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥4,800 to JP¥4,950. Share price rose 13% to JP¥5,490 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 14
Price target increased by 10% to JP¥4,950 Up from JP¥4,500, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥4,790. Stock is up 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥38.47 for next year compared to JP¥31.75 last year. Announcement • Jul 22
Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire Gcm.Co.,Ltd. Medley, Inc. (TSE:4480) agreed to acquire Gcm.Co.,Ltd. on July 20, 2023. The definitive agreement will be signed on July 31, 2023. Medley will acquire all the 5,000 shares of GCM. Gcm.Co.,Ltd. reported net assets of ¥71 million, total assets of ¥670 million, net sales of ¥117 million, operating profit of ¥30 million and net profit of ¥7 million for September 2022. The consolidation of GCM Co.,Ltd.’s financial results will start from the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023 and the acquisition is not expected to have a significant impact on Medley’s consolidated financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023. Announcement • May 28
Medley, Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 14, 2023 Medley, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 14, 2023 Price Target Changed • May 16
Price target increased by 9.1% to JP¥4,800 Up from JP¥4,400, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 12% above last closing price of JP¥4,280. Stock is up 74% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥36.43 for next year compared to JP¥31.75 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 01
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥31.75 (up from JP¥17.79 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥14.2b (up 31% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥1.02b (up 81% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 7.2% (up from 5.2% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 70% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Feb 20
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥31.75 (up from JP¥17.79 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥14.2b (up 31% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥1.02b (up 81% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 7.2% (up from 5.2% in FY 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 70% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 38% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 15
Medley, Inc. Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2023 Medley, Inc. provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023. For the year, the company expects net sales to be JPY 19,150 million. Operating profit to be JPY 1,630 million. Profit attributable to owners of parent to be JPY 1,180 million. Basic earnings per share to be JPY 36.76. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from JP¥41.47 to JP¥36.40. Revenue forecast unchanged from JP¥17.5b at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 3.3% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥4,400 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 4.4% to JP¥4,610 over the past week.