Live News • May 30
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Reports Record Profit and Plans Dividend Increase Despite Life Insurance Losses MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings reported record consolidated net income and overall profit growth for fiscal year 2025, supported by higher revenues in domestic non-life insurance and solid international business results.
Profits in the domestic life insurance segment declined, mainly due to losses at Mitsui Sumitomo Aioi Life Insurance, which offset some of the strength in other areas.
The company plans to raise its annual dividend and proceed with a large share repurchase program in fiscal year 2026.
The combination of record profit and planned shareholder returns reflects management’s focus on both earnings quality and capital allocation, even as certain segments such as domestic life insurance face pressure from losses and natural catastrophe-related impacts.
When assessing the stock, it may be useful to weigh the support from domestic non-life and international operations against the profit headwinds in life insurance and the potential earnings sensitivity to catastrophe losses. Announcement • Apr 17
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on May 20, 2026 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results at 3:30 PM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 20, 2026 Announcement • Apr 06
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. to Report April,2026 Results on May 11, 2026 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report April, 2026 results on May 11, 2026 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥77.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 24 June 2026. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.3%). Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Third quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥112. Revenue: JP¥1.70t (down 6.7% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥165.4b (down 1.0% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 9.8% (in line with 3Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 16%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 85%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Announcement • Feb 13
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for Year Ending March 31, 2026 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. provided consolidated earnings guidance for Year Ending March 31, 2026. For the period, the company now expects Net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY 590,000 million and Net income attributable to owners of the parent per share of JPY 394.71. Declared Dividend • Dec 05
First half dividend of JP¥77.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥77.50. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 24th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 23% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years, which should provide adequate earnings cover for the dividend. Reported Earnings • Nov 21
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥180 (vs JP¥161 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥180 (up from JP¥161 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥2.13t (up 54% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥268.9b (up 5.6% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 13% (down from 18% in 2Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 19
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) announces an Equity Buyback for 75,000,000 shares, representing 5.03% for ¥135,000 million. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE: 8725) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 75,000,000 shares, representing 5.03% of its total outstanding shares, for ¥135,000 million. The purpose of the program is to enhance shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency. The program is valid till March 24, 2026. As of September 30, 2025, there are 1,491,969,586 outstanding shares (excluding treasury stock) and 116,429,122 treasury shares. Announcement • Oct 31
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance and Parent Firm, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Appoints Eric Schaap as Senior Vice President Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance and its parent firm, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group (MSIG) Asia have announced a new
appointment. The Japanese firms have appointed Eric Schaap as senior vice president and global broker engagement manager.
This is a new role at the firm. He will work to enhance the insurer's partnerships with brokers worldwide. Schaap is to be based in Singapore and has more than 20 years of experience in insurance and analytics. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥147 (vs JP¥129 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥147 (up from JP¥129 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥1.90t (up 2.4% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥222.8b (up 9.1% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 12% (in line with 1Q 2025). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Aug 01
TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited completed the acquisition of 15.1% stake in Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) from MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725). TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited agreed to acquire 15.1% stake in Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) from MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) for approximately AUD 880 million on April 7, 2025. A cash consideration of AUD 8.46 per share (¥763 per share) will be paid by TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited.
Following the completion of the sale of MS&AD's equity holding in Challenger, Masahiko Kobayashi will accordingly step down as MS&AD’s representative on the Challenger Limited Board. A&O Shearman acted as a legal advisor to MS&AD Insurance Group.
The transaction is subject to subject to customary regulatory approvals including from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). The transaction is expected to close during the fiscal year 2025. BofA Securities acted as financial advisor and Karen EvansCullen of Gilbert + Tobin acted as legal advisor to TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited. As of May 15, 2025, Dai-ichi Life announced the transaction is expected to be completed from July to December 2025.
TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited completed the acquisition of 15.1% stake in Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) from MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) on August 1, 2025. Declared Dividend • Jul 21
Final dividend of JP¥77.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥77.50. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 4th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 23% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 5.9% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • May 22
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥446 (up from JP¥232 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥6.44t (down 1.9% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥691.7b (up 87% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 11% (up from 5.6% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 2.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Apr 10
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Announcement • Apr 08
TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited agreed to acquire 15.20% stake in Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) from MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) for approximately AUD 880 million. TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited agreed to acquire 15.20% stake in Challenger Limited (ASX:CGF) from MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) for approximately AUD 880 million on April 7, 2025. A cash consideration of AUD 8.46 per share (¥763 per share) will be paid by TAL Dai-ichi Life Australia Pty Limited.
Following the completion of the sale of MS&AD's equity holding in Challenger, Masahiko Kobayashi will accordingly step down as MS&AD’s representative on the Challenger Limited Board.
The transaction is subject to subject to customary regulatory approvals including from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). The transaction is expected to close during the fiscal year 2025.. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to JP¥2,847, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Insurance industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 164% over the past three years. New Risk • Mar 31
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Mar 31
Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, Aioi Nissay Dowa to Merge Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co., Ltd. and Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance Co. Ltd. planned to merge in April 2027, their parent, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) said. The merger will create the biggest nonlife insurer in Japan, overtaking current industry leader Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. The move is aimed at making operations more efficient and boosting profitability as Japanese nonlife insurers face the challenges of a shrinking domestic market due to societal aging and increasing benefit payments because of a series of large-scale natural disasters. The merger between Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance and Aioi Nissay Dowa will consolidate the Japanese nonlife insurance industry into three major firms, including Tokio Marine and Sompo Japan Insurance Inc., compared with over 10 in the late 1990s. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥72.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 25 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). In line with average of industry peers (2.9%). Announcement • Mar 05
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 20, 2025 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 20, 2025 Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥109 (vs JP¥122 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥109 (down from JP¥122 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.80t (up 35% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥167.1b (down 14% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.3% (down from 15% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.5% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 08
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. to Report February,2025 Results on Mar 06, 2025 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report February, 2025 results on Mar 06, 2025 New Risk • Dec 07
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Declared Dividend • Dec 05
First half dividend of JP¥72.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥72.50. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 25th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (21% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (32% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 18% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 8.5% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Nov 21
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥161 (vs JP¥15.12 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥161 (up from JP¥15.12 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.42t (down 11% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥254.7b (up JP¥278.8b from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 18% (up from net loss in 2Q 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 49% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 45% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥72.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 04 December 2024. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 93%, however this is supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). In line with average of industry peers (3.3%). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 11
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from JP¥6.11t to JP¥5.30t. EPS estimate unchanged at JP¥405 per share. Net income forecast to grow 39% next year vs 0.06% growth forecast for Insurance industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,633. Share price fell 6.7% to JP¥3,124 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥129 (vs JP¥69.69 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥129 (up from JP¥69.69 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.86t (down 3.7% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥204.3b (up 83% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 11% (up from 5.8% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 37% per year. New Risk • Aug 05
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.9% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.9% average weekly change). Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings (116% payout ratio). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 24% After last week's 24% share price decline to JP¥2,648, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Insurance industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 165% over the past three years. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥72.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥72.50. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 4th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (34% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 18% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 38% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 63% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 05
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥5.30t to JP¥5.97t. EPS estimate unchanged at JP¥401. Net income forecast to grow 70% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Insurance industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥3,275 to JP¥3,526. Share price rose 13% to JP¥3,860 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 01
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to JP¥3,713, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Insurance industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 285% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 15
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 12%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from JP¥6.00t to JP¥5.30t. EPS estimate increased from JP¥364 to JP¥395 per share. Net income forecast to grow 67% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Insurance industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥2,795 to JP¥2,996. Share price was steady at JP¥3,125 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jun 14
Price target increased by 11% to JP¥2,996 Up from JP¥2,696, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥3,125. Stock is up 81% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥395 for next year compared to JP¥232 last year. Price Target Changed • Jun 08
Price target increased by 8.5% to JP¥2,875 Up from JP¥2,650, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 8.4% below last closing price of JP¥3,137. Stock is up 82% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥351 for next year compared to JP¥232 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from JP¥5.55t to JP¥6.00t. EPS estimate increased from JP¥294 to JP¥346 per share. Net income forecast to grow 34% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Insurance industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥2,650 to JP¥2,795. Share price fell 4.1% to JP¥3,151 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 27
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to JP¥3,302, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Insurance industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 239% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥6,595 per share. Reported Earnings • May 22
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥232 (up from JP¥99.93 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥6.42t (up 23% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥369.3b (up 129% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 5.8% (up from 3.1% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 13%. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Insurance industry in Japan are expected to grow by 1.2%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 41% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • May 22
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024. Announcement • May 21
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) announces an Equity Buyback for 130,000,000 shares, representing 8.17% for ¥190,000 million. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 130,000,000 shares, representing 8.17% of its total shares outstanding excluding treasury shares, for a total of ¥190,000 million. The purpose of repurchase program is to improve shareholder returns and capital efficiency. The repurchase program is valid till December 23, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, the company had 1,590,308,382 shares outstanding excluding treasury shares and had 17,905,818 shares in treasury. Announcement • Apr 27
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. Announces Board Changes MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced Yasuyoshi Karasawa, Chairman & Director, Chairman Executive Officer, scheduled to resign, subject to approval at the General Shareholders' Meeting in June 2024. Audit & Supervisory Board Member scheduled to resign, subject to approval at the General Shareholders' Meeting in June 2024: Kunio Chiyoda, Outside Audit & Supervisory Board Member. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥120 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 27 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). In line with average of industry peers (2.8%). Price Target Changed • Mar 07
Price target increased by 9.2% to JP¥6,768 Up from JP¥6,200, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. New target price is 14% below last closing price of JP¥7,842. Stock is up 69% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥551 for next year compared to JP¥300 last year. Announcement • Feb 29
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. Announces Change of Executive Officers MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced the change of Executive Officers. Executive Officers: Newly appointed Executive Officer as of April 1, 2024: Hironori Morimoto, Current Position: Managing Executive Officer of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co. Ltd., New Position: Executive Officer Responsibilities: -International Business Planning Dept. Executive Officer scheduled to resign as of March 31, 2024: Tamaki Kawate, Current Position: Executive Officer Responsibilities: -International Business Planning Dept. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 21
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥6.11t to JP¥5.40t. EPS estimate fell from JP¥548 to JP¥543 per share. Net income forecast to grow 4.0% next year vs 7.4% growth forecast for Insurance industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥5,964 to JP¥6,200. Share price rose 10% to JP¥7,249 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥366 (vs JP¥227 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥366 (up from JP¥227 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥1.34t (up 36% from 3Q 2023). Net income: JP¥194.1b (up 60% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 14% (up from 12% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.5% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 29% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 34% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 24% After last week's 24% share price gain to JP¥7,477, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Insurance industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 176% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥14,720 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 11
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥5.33t to JP¥5.99t. EPS estimate increased from JP¥530 to JP¥547 per share. Net income forecast to grow 7.0% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Insurance industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥5,964. Share price rose 3.8% to JP¥5,803 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 30
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 11% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (11% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Nov 29
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Feb 14, 2024 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Feb 14, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 19
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥45.36 loss per share (vs JP¥174 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: JP¥45.36 loss per share (improved from JP¥174 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥1.61t (up 14% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥24.1b (loss narrowed 74% from 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.5% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 18
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) announces an Equity Buyback for 3,000,000 shares, representing 0.56% for ¥10,000 million. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 3,000,000 shares, representing 0.56% of its issued capital for ¥10,000 million. The purpose of the program is to improve shareholder returns and capital efficiency. The program will expire on March 22, 2024. As of September 30, 2023, the company had 531,939,116 shares in issue and 4,132,284 shares in treasury. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥120 per share at 4.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 05 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 73% and the cash payout ratio is 95%. Trailing yield: 4.2%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.6%). Announcement • Aug 30
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Nov 17, 2023 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Nov 17, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 09
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥209 (vs JP¥111 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥209 (up from JP¥111 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥1.93t (up 58% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥111.6b (up 85% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.8% (up from 4.9% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Insurance industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 20% per year. New Risk • Jul 18
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 41% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (114% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.1% net profit margin). Announcement • Jun 24
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Aug 08, 2023 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Aug 08, 2023 Price Target Changed • Jun 15
Price target increased by 8.4% to JP¥5,299 Up from JP¥4,889, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥5,223. Stock is up 28% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥570 for next year compared to JP¥300 last year. Price Target Changed • Jun 09
Price target increased by 7.1% to JP¥5,119 Up from JP¥4,780, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥5,157. Stock is up 25% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥573 for next year compared to JP¥300 last year. 
