Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Overview
A technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 6/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 4/6 |
MSFT Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
Microsoft Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$464.72 |
| 52 Week High | US$553.72 |
| 52 Week Low | US$349.20 |
| Beta | 1.13 |
| 1 Month Change | 20.93% |
| 3 Month Change | 12.13% |
| 1 Year Change | -11.33% |
| 3 Year Change | 41.78% |
| 5 Year Change | 60.55% |
| Change since IPO | 477,898.81% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jul 31
Microsoft (MSFT): The Toll Road Just Sent Its First Real Invoice
The Quarter That Answered the Question I Left Open Two weeks ago I closed this narrative with a question I genuinely couldn't answer: when does a $190 billion capex number stop looking like vertigo and start looking like foresight? I said nobody knew, and that not knowing was what made this a real bet rather than an obvious one.Seeking Alpha • Jul 27
Microsoft: The Market Is Right To Discount The $190 Billion Bet -- For Now
Summary Microsoft Corporation trades at a 22.8x forward P/E, a multi-year low, reflecting a 25% stock decline despite strong fundamentals. MSFT's free cash flow is falling due to $190B in AI capex, while Copilot monetization remains slow with only 3% corporate adoption. The Hold rating for MSFT is justified by the unresolved gap between heavy AI investment and lagging Copilot revenue, with July 29 earnings as a key catalyst. I will turn bullish if Copilot adoption and M365 ARPU accelerate, or bearish if Copilot stalls, Azure growth slows, or capex guidance rises without revenue. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 31
Microsoft (MSFT): The Toll Road Just Sent Its First Real Invoice
The Quarter That Answered the Question I Left Open Two weeks ago I closed this narrative with a question I genuinely couldn't answer: when does a $190 billion capex number stop looking like vertigo and start looking like foresight? I said nobody knew, and that not knowing was what made this a real bet rather than an obvious one.Seeking Alpha • Jul 27
Microsoft: The Market Is Right To Discount The $190 Billion Bet -- For Now
Summary Microsoft Corporation trades at a 22.8x forward P/E, a multi-year low, reflecting a 25% stock decline despite strong fundamentals. MSFT's free cash flow is falling due to $190B in AI capex, while Copilot monetization remains slow with only 3% corporate adoption. The Hold rating for MSFT is justified by the unresolved gap between heavy AI investment and lagging Copilot revenue, with July 29 earnings as a key catalyst. I will turn bullish if Copilot adoption and M365 ARPU accelerate, or bearish if Copilot stalls, Azure growth slows, or capex guidance rises without revenue. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 22
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Spending Will Support Premium Multiples Over Longer Horizon
Microsoft's analyst price targets have edged lower, with several firms trimming objectives by amounts such as $25 to $115, while still pointing to Azure, Copilot, AI driven demand and tighter cost control as key supports for the long term thesis and for updated assumptions around revenue growth, margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Microsoft continues to center on how its AI and cloud spending filters through to growth, profitability and valuation.
New Narrative • Jul 19
Is Microsoft on sale? and Its Case in the AI Race
(This story appeared on my substack page around a week ago: https://open.substack.com/pub/piproberts25/p/is-microsoft-on-sale-and-its-case?r=6kjdcg&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web ) Last October, Microsoft was trading at around US$540 per share. Today it trades closer to US$385.New Narrative • Jul 13
Microsoft (MSFT): The AI Bull Case Everyone Sees, Trading at a Multiple Nobody's Willing to Pay
What Microsoft Actually Does (And Why the Bear Case Misreads It) Most retail investors think of Microsoft as "the Windows and Office company that also does AI now." That framing is about eight years out of date. Microsoft today is a three-headed compounding machine — enterprise productivity software, cloud infrastructure, and, increasingly, the metering layer for the entire AI economy — and the third head is growing fast enough to change how the other two should be valued.
New Narrative • Jul 06
Microsoft Are Industry Leaders at a Heavy Discount
Microsoft's decline in value over the last year is not surprising, but whether or not it was deserved is another thing entirely. Similar to their peers, a lot of money has been spent developing their AI infrastructure.
New Narrative • Jul 04
A wonderful business at reasonable price.
Microsoft rarely goes on sale, so it's worth paying attention when the multiple compresses. At around $380, the stock trades at roughly 22–23x trailing earnings and ~14x EV/EBITDA, well below its own seven year historical range.
Narrative Update • Jun 30
MSFT: AI Infrastructure And OpenAI Stake Will Drive Future Upside
Microsoft's updated analyst narrative reflects a lower implied fair value of about $413 per share, compared with roughly $438 previously, as analysts trim long term gross margin assumptions and future P/E expectations while still recognizing higher modeled revenue growth and profitability tied to the company's AI positioning and recent research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Microsoft highlights a split view, with some firms still constructive on the company's AI roadmap while a separate group of bearish analysts has been trimming price targets and reassessing long term assumptions.Analysis Article • Jun 19
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Could Be 18.6% Undervalued After China AI Push and Copilot Reset
Microsoft (MSFT) is back in focus after two linked moves: rapid expansion of its Azure hosted OpenAI services in China and a reset of Copilot Cowork pricing and underlying AI models. See our latest analysis for Microsoft. Despite a long list of AI partnerships and new products like Copilot Cowork, Microsoft’s recent share price performance has been weak, with the stock down 19.8% year to date on a share price basis and total shareholder return declining 20.4% over the past year. However,...
Narrative Update • Jun 16
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Commercial Backlog Will Drive Future Leadership
Analysts have nudged the Microsoft price target higher by $0.50 to reflect slightly adjusted assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, supported by recent research that highlights Microsoft's positioning in AI software and its progress on capacity, models and Copilot. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Microsoft shows an active debate around how much AI should influence valuation, with both supportive and cautious voices adjusting their targets and views.Analysis Article • Jun 12
Software stocks just gave investors a masterclass
Software stocks crashed on fears AI would make them obsolete, then they came roaring back. This edition of Market Insights aims to hand investors a repeatable playbook for separating real risk from market panic.Analysis Article • Jun 12
Software stocks just gave investors a masterclass
Software stocks crashed on fears AI would make them obsolete, then they came roaring back. This edition of Market Insights aims to hand investors a repeatable playbook for separating real risk from market panic.Narrative Update • Jun 01
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Cloud Backlog Will Support Long-Term Leadership
Narrative Update on Microsoft Microsoft's analyst price target framework has been refined with a slightly lower fair value of about $560.89. This reflects analyst views that stronger revenue growth tied to AI initiatives is being balanced by modestly lower margin expectations and a slightly higher required return.
New Narrative • May 21
Microsoft no es una apuesta. Es una franquicia global de la que se puede ser socio durante décadas.
Copilot me ha creado un investment memo ampliado al estilo Warren Buffett , usando exclusivamente datos verificables de Investor Relations de Microsoft (earnings, 10‑Q, reports) y manteniendo un tono sobrio, basado en principios de inversión a largo plazo. Investment Memo – Microsoft (MSFT) (Estilo Buffett: negocio, moat, retorno sobre capital, disciplina de precio) 1.Narrative Update • May 11
Microsoft's enterprise cash-flow durability stays unmatched despite near-term margin pressures
Microsoft’s long‑term economic value remains grounded in the same core reality: the company’s enterprise cash‑flow durability continues to be unmatched. High‑retention subscription economics, entrenched operating‑system and productivity moats, and the scale advantages of Azure still anchor Microsoft’s intrinsic worth far more than any short‑term growth narrative.New Narrative • May 10
Microsoft will achieve a future PE ratio of 24.626979x by leveraging strong growth
Valuation In 3–5 years, I think Microsoft becomes even more dominant in enterprise AI, cloud infrastructure, and productivity software. Azure and Copilot are probably the biggest growth drivers, while Windows, Office, LinkedIn, GitHub, and gaming remain huge cash generators.Analysis Article • May 02
Microsoft Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Last week, you might have seen that Microsoft Corporation ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) released its third-quarter result to the...
Narrative Update • May 02
Microsoft Just Had a Quarter for the History Books. I Still Haven't Bought a Share.
In late March I told you the fundamentals were a fortress and the price had not caught up to the fear yet. The fear faded.Narrative Update • May 02
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Self Sufficiency And Global Data Center Expansion Will Drive Leadership
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Microsoft, reflecting a lower assumed fair value of around $562 and a reduced future P/E of roughly 28x. This comes even as they continue to reference solid revenue growth assumptions and mixed reactions to recent OpenAI and AI infrastructure updates across the latest research reports.New Narrative • Apr 30
AI Infrastructure And Enterprise Agents Will Reshape Long Term Earnings Power
Catalysts About Microsoft Microsoft is a global technology company that offers cloud services, productivity software, AI platforms, business applications, security products and consumer services. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Apr 18
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Self Sufficiency And Heavy Data Center Commitments Will Sustain Leadership
Microsoft's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly lower to $579.57, as analysts factor in updated price targets that reflect a mix of reduced P/E assumptions, along with expectations for revenue growth and profit margins tied to AI and cloud spending. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Microsoft reflects a mix of optimism and caution as analysts recalibrate price targets and ratings around AI, cloud spending, and capital intensity.New Narrative • Apr 16
AI Infrastructure Constraints Will Pressure Cloud Margins Yet Support Stable Long Term Earnings
Catalysts About Microsoft Microsoft is a global technology company that provides cloud services, productivity software, AI platforms and related hardware and services to enterprise, government and consumer customers. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?New Narrative • Apr 13
Microsoft Could Reach $600 Over the Next Five Years
Microsoft has a strong path to $600 over the next five years because it combines durable growth, elite profitability, and a leadership position in AI, cloud, and enterprise software. Its recurring revenue base makes earnings more predictable, while Azure, Microsoft 365, and its AI products give it multiple ways to compound value over time.Narrative Update • Apr 03
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Self Sufficiency Will Support Long Duration Leadership
Microsoft's analyst price target has been modestly trimmed as the fair value estimate shifts from $594.62 to $587.31, reflecting a round of target reductions and mixed views on AI related risks and opportunities, even as several firms maintain positive long term opinions on the company's role in software and infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary around Microsoft shows a split view, with many research houses trimming price targets while still seeing long term potential, and a smaller group turning more cautious on AI related execution risks, valuation, and competitive threats.New Narrative • Mar 29
Everyone's Terrified Microsoft Will Keep Spending. I'm Terrified They'll Stop.
Microsoft just burned $37.5 billion in 90 days. The stock has lost a third of its value.Narrative Update • Mar 19
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And Self Sufficiency Will Support Long Duration Leadership
Analysts have made a small cut to the Microsoft analyst price target, trimming fair value by about $1 to $594.62 as they factor in a slightly higher discount rate, modest tweaks to long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a marginally lower future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Microsoft presents a mixed but detailed picture, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they recalibrate expectations around AI, capital spending, and long term growth assumptions.New Narrative • Mar 05
A Structured Counter‑Analysis of "The Leaking Dreadnought"
A Structured Counter‑Analysis of "The Leaking Dreadnought" Microsoft is not a leaking vessel drifting toward structural decline; it is a company in the middle of a capital‑intensive platform transition whose long‑term logic the article fundamentally misreads. The critique below addresses the article’s core claims and reframes them through the lens of Microsoft’s actual strategic architecture, economic model, and competitive position.Narrative Update • Mar 05
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Self Sufficiency Will Support Long Duration Cloud Leadership
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Microsoft has been trimmed by a modest amount in dollar terms. Analysts are factoring in slightly lower revenue growth, a small step down in profit margin assumptions, a marginally higher discount rate, and a slightly richer future P/E multiple.New Narrative • Feb 22
Microsoft: Real‑Terms Economic Value Anchored in Durability, Not Growth Assumptions
Microsoft’s true economic value rests on its unmatched enterprise cash-flow durability, high-retention subscription model, and deep competitive moats in operating systems, productivity platforms, and cloud infrastructure. These produce stable, high-margin recurring cash flows capable of long-duration compounding under disciplined capital allocation.Narrative Update • Feb 18
MSFT: AI Self Sufficiency And Global Data Center Expansion Will Sustain Cloud Leadership
Our analyst price target for Microsoft has been nudged lower by a few dollars to reflect a slightly reduced fair value estimate of about $596, as analysts balance ongoing enthusiasm around AI driven capital spending with a wave of recent target trims. These largely stem from valuation discipline and concerns that prior long term assumptions, including P/E and margin expectations, may have been set too high.Narrative Update • Feb 04
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Partnerships And Data Center Expansion Will Sustain Cloud Leadership
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Microsoft by about $19 to $603, citing a blend of slightly higher discount rates, modestly stronger revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple that reflects the recent wave of price target resets and still constructive, AI driven, long term views across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Microsoft centers on how to value its AI opportunity, the required capital spending, and whether current expectations are too high or still leave room for upside.Narrative Update • Jan 21
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Buildout And OpenAI Partnership Will Sustain Cloud Leadership
Microsoft's updated analyst price target edges slightly lower, with fair value now at about $622.19, as analysts balance modest tweaks to the discount rate and P/E assumptions against ongoing AI related demand signals highlighted in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Microsoft clusters into two broad camps, with most commentary still constructive on AI driven growth and cloud execution, while a smaller group is more cautious on capital intensity and hyperscaler economics.Narrative Update • Jan 13
Microsoft (MSFT): When AI Becomes the Operating Layer of Work
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is no longer just a software company—it’s becoming the operating layer for modern work. Windows, Office, Azure, and now AI-powered copilots form an interconnected ecosystem that spans individual users, enterprises, and governments.Narrative Update • Jan 06
MSFT: AI Infrastructure Expansion And OpenAI Deal Will Support Durable Cloud Leadership
Our Microsoft price target edges down slightly to US$622.51 from US$624.45, as analysts balance ongoing enthusiasm around the company’s broad AI and cloud positioning with more cautious views on capital intensity and earnings expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Microsoft reflects a mix of optimism around the company’s AI and cloud positioning and a more cautious read on capital intensity and earnings risk.Narrative Update • Dec 18
MSFT: Expanded AI Partnerships And Infrastructure Will Drive Durable Cloud Leadership
Analysts have nudged their Microsoft price target slightly higher to approximately $650, reflecting confidence that the company's broadened AI partnerships, resilient Azure growth, and durable margin profile justify modestly stronger long term revenue and earnings assumptions despite rising capex and hyperscaler caution. Analyst Commentary Street research remains broadly constructive on Microsoft, with a cluster of recent notes highlighting the company as a primary beneficiary of accelerating AI adoption, robust cloud demand, and deepened model partnerships, even as a minority of voices urge greater caution around hyperscaler capital intensity and returns.Narrative Update • Dec 07
The Leaking Dreadnought
On the surface, Microsoft appears to be an unsinkable vessel. Buoyed by a trillion-dollar market cap and the explosive valuation of the AI sector, the company seems to be steaming ahead.Shareholder Returns
| MSFT | US Software | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 21.8% | 11.5% | 0.5% |
| 1Y | -11.3% | -19.4% | 16.5% |
Return vs Industry: MSFT exceeded the US Software industry which returned -19.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MSFT underperformed the US Market which returned 16.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MSFT volatility | |
|---|---|
| MSFT Average Weekly Movement | 6.4% |
| Software Industry Average Movement | 9.8% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: MSFT has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MSFT's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 223,000 | Satya Nadella | www.microsoft.com |
Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. It operates through three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 Commercial, Enterprise Mobility + Security, Power BI, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and Windows Commercial on-premises and Office licensed on-premises.
Microsoft Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| MSFT fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$3.35t |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$133.75b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$331.84b |
25.8x
P/E Ratio10.4x
P/S RatioIs MSFT overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MSFT income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$331.84b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$106.37b |
| Gross Profit | US$225.47b |
| Other Expenses | US$91.72b |
| Earnings | US$133.75b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 18.01 |
| Gross Margin | 67.94% |
| Net Profit Margin | 40.31% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 9.1% |
How did MSFT perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.8%
Current Dividend Yield20%
Payout RatioDoes MSFT pay a reliable dividends?
See MSFT dividend history and benchmarks| Microsoft dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Aug 20 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Sep 10 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 19 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 40 days |
Does MSFT pay a reliable dividends?
See MSFT dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/31 21:48 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/31 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Microsoft Corporation is covered by 86 analysts. 48 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Kadambari Daptardar | Accountability Research Corporation |
| Adam Shepherd | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Joseph Bonner | Argus Research Company |