New Risk • Jun 25
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: kr99.1m (US$9.79m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (26% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 154% Dividend per share is over 112x cash flows per share. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 147% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (88% accrual ratio). Market cap is less than US$10m (kr99.1m market cap, or US$9.79m). Board Change • Jun 17
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 2 non-independent directors. Independent Director James O'Shaughnessy was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. New Risk • Apr 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 141% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (32% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 181% Dividend per share is over 112x cash flows per share. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 141% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (88% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (kr1.5m sold). Market cap is less than US$100m (kr252.8m market cap, or US$24.2m). Announcement • Apr 16
Avance Gas Holding Ltd to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 25, 2025 Avance Gas Holding Ltd announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 25, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 15
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 89% to kr10.01. The fair value is estimated to be kr12.80, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 75%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 100% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 100% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$5.78 (up from US$2.14 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$291.2m (down 17% from FY 2023). Net income: US$443.0m (up 171% from FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is expected to fall by 150% p.a. on average during the next 2 years compared to a 3.0% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 24
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 87% to kr10.12. The fair value is estimated to be kr12.65, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 75%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 100% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 100% in the next 2 years. Price Target Changed • Mar 11
Price target increased by 40% to kr126 Up from kr89.33, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 1,231% above last closing price of kr9.43. Stock is down 92% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.82 for next year compared to US$5.78 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 06
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 91% to kr10.14. The fair value is estimated to be kr13.06, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 75%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 100% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 100% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Mar 05
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: kr844.1m (US$77.0m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (28% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 139% Dividend per share is over 8x cash flows per share. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 131% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (76% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (kr1.5m sold). Market cap is less than US$100m (kr844.1m market cap, or US$77.0m). Announcement • Mar 03
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Announces Distribution of Final Dividend from Remaining Cash Balance Avance Gas Holding Ltd. announced that after the payment of the $0.75 cash dividend, the company expect to have a pro-forma remaining cash balance of $56 million which the company aim to distribute in a final dividend of approximately $0.70 per share before liquidating the Company in line with the estimates presented on February 12, 2025. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Feb 25
CEO & Director exercised options to buy kr2.6m worth of stock. On the 17th of February, Oystein Kalleklev exercised options to buy 150k shares at a strike price of around kr56.61, costing a total of kr8.5m. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since December 2024, Oystein has owned 50.00k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought kr9.4m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Price Target Changed • Feb 18
Price target increased by 26% to kr126 Up from kr99.75, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 394% above last closing price of kr25.40. Stock is down 78% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.82 for next year compared to US$5.78 last year. Announcement • Feb 14
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Declares Cash Dividend for the Fourth Quarter of 2024 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. announced a cash dividend of $2.0 per share equal to $153 million, of which all represents a return of capital, following the approval to reduce capital at the Special General Meeting held on February 5, 2025. Additionally, the Company declared the distribution of BW LPG shares to its shareholders, as the lock-up period expired on February 9, 2025. As of the close of business on February 11, 2025, BW LPG shares traded at NOK 145/$13 per share, bringing the total value of the BW LPG share distribution to approximately $250 million, or $3.25 per share in Avance Gas. Reported Earnings • Feb 13
Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$5.78 (vs US$2.14 in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$5.78 (up from US$2.14 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$291.2m (down 17% from FY 2023). Net income: US$443.0m (up 171% from FY 2023). Revenue is expected to fall by 150% p.a. on average during the next 2 years compared to a 3.7% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 75% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 02
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to kr89.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Total returns to shareholders of 614% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Dec 05
Price target decreased by 7.2% to kr121 Down from kr130, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 9.1% above last closing price of kr111. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$6.29 for next year compared to US$2.14 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from US$218.9m to US$214.2m. EPS estimate rose from US$5.55 to US$6.30. Net income forecast to shrink 50% next year vs 9.4% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at kr121. Share price fell 2.1% to kr111 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Nov 29
Third quarter dividend of US$3.50 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$3.50. Ex-date: 10th December 2024 Payment date: 23rd December 2024 Dividend yield will be 42%, which is higher than the industry average of 13%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (56% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (447% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 10% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 100% over the next 2 years. Since a fall of 38% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Nov 28
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.34 (vs US$0.39 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.34 (down from US$0.39 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$62.6m (down 21% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$25.8m (down 14% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 41% (up from 38% in 3Q 2023). Revenue is expected to fall by 102% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 5.7% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 67% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 50% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 27
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Declares Dividend for the Third Quarter 2024, Payable on December 23, 2024 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. declares dividend for third quarter of $3.50 per share. Ex-date is December 10, 2024. Record date is December 11, 2024. Payment date is December 23, 2024. Date of Approval is November 26, 2024. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Oct 08
CEO & Director exercised options to buy kr15m worth of stock. On the 4th of October, Oystein Kalleklev exercised options to buy 131k shares at a strike price of around kr17.69, costing a total of kr2.3m. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since December 2023, Oystein has owned 50.00k shares directly. This was the only transaction from an insider over the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 11
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to kr100, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Total returns to shareholders of 335% over the past three years. New Risk • Sep 01
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 94% Dividend per share is over 7x cash flows per share. Dividend yield: 46% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 94% Dividend per share is over 7x cash flows per share. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 55% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (31% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.4% average weekly change). Declared Dividend • Aug 30
Second quarter dividend of US$1.35 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$1.35. Ex-date: 10th September 2024 Payment date: 18th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 30%, which is higher than the industry average of 13%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (55% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 5x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.1% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 91% over the next 3 years. Since a fall of 39% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Aug 29
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.79 (vs US$0.47 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.79 (up from US$0.47 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$67.7m (down 20% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$60.6m (up 70% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 90% (up from 42% in 2Q 2023). Revenue is expected to fall by 45% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 5.1% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 61% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 40% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Aug 28
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Declares Dividend for the Second Quarter of 2024, Payable on September 18, 2024 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. declared dividend of USD 1.35 per share for the second quarter of 2024, payable on September 18, 2024; Record date: September 11, 2024; Ex-date: September 10, 2024; Date of Approval: August 27, 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 25
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 75%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from US$261.1m to US$235.8m. EPS estimate rose from US$2.94 to US$5.15. Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 37% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target down from kr190 to kr161. Share price fell 15% to kr128 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 19
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 23% After last week's 23% share price decline to kr131, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Total returns to shareholders of 388% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at kr104 per share. Price Target Changed • Aug 18
Price target decreased by 7.0% to kr177 Down from kr190, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 17% above last closing price of kr150. Stock is up 60% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$3.07 for next year compared to US$2.14 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 09
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 26% to kr164. The fair value is estimated to be kr136, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 23% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 47%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 43% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 57% in the next 2 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 22
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to kr207, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Total returns to shareholders of 586% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at kr190 per share. Major Estimate Revision • May 22
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$247.8m to US$275.4m. EPS estimate increased from US$2.72 to US$3.82 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 8.6% next year vs 3.0% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway . Consensus price target up from kr157 to kr193. Share price rose 19% to kr207 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$1.91 (up from US$0.47 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$116.1m (up 51% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$146.5m (up 303% from 1Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 17%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 58%. Revenue is expected to fall by 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 6.0% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 47% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 59% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • May 16
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Announces Dividend for the First Quarter 2024, Payable on May 31, 2024 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. announced dividend of USD 1.16 per share for the first quarter 2024. Last day including right: May 22, 2024. Ex-date: May 23, 2024. Payment date: May 31, 2024. Date of Approval: May 14, 2024. Record date: May 24, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 29
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 23% to kr158. The fair value is estimated to be kr129, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 18% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 27%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 16% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to decline by 17% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Apr 08
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$2.14 (up from US$1.16 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$352.3m (up 38% from FY 2022). Net income: US$163.6m (up 84% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 46% (up from 35% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) were also in line with analyst expectations. Revenue is expected to fall by 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 4.4% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 47% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 28
Avance Gas Holding Ltd to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Final Results on Apr 05, 2024 Avance Gas Holding Ltd announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 final results at 9:00 AM, Central European Standard Time on Apr 05, 2024 New Risk • Feb 22
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Norwegian stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 100% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 17% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (21% accrual ratio). Minor Risk High level of debt (53% net debt to equity). Price Target Changed • Feb 17
Price target decreased by 9.3% to kr156 Down from kr172, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 23% above last closing price of kr126. Stock is up 94% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.72 for next year compared to US$2.14 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$2.14 (vs US$1.16 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$2.14 (up from US$1.16 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$352.3m (up 38% from FY 2022). Net income: US$163.6m (up 84% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 46% (up from 35% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 3.1% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 55% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 14
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Announces Dividend for the Fourth Quarter 2023, Payable on February 29, 2024 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. announced dividend of $0.65 per share for the fourth quarter 2023. Ex-date is February 20, 2024. Record date is February 21, 2024. Payment date is February 29, 2024. Price Target Changed • Feb 06
Price target increased by 8.5% to kr172 Up from kr159, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of kr124. Stock is up 96% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.11 for next year compared to US$1.16 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 12
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 20% After last week's 20% share price decline to kr137, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Total returns to shareholders of 371% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at kr97.48 per share. Board Change • Dec 09
Less than half of directors are independent There are 4 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 4 new directors. No experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. 2 independent directors (3 non-independent directors). Independent Director Francois Sunier is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2010. Independent Director James O'Shaughnessy was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of experienced directors. New Risk • Dec 07
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Norwegian stocks, typically moving 7.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 112% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (53% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.9% average weekly change). Announcement • Dec 06
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Appoints Will Homan-Russell as A New Board Member Avance Gas Holding Ltd. announced that Will Homan-Russell has been elected as a new board member in the Company. Will Homan-Russell is an experienced professional investor in the maritime sector, currently serving as Chief Investment Officer of UK based WMC Capital Ltd., where he co-founded Albemarle Shipping Fund. From 2003 to 2018 he worked for Tufton Oceanic Limited, a fund management company specializing in investments in the maritime and energy sectors. Mr. Homan-Russell has served as a board member of SFL Corporation Ltd. since July 2022. He holds a MA in Mathematics from Oxford University and an MSc. in Finance from London Business School. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from US$286.5m to US$273.9m. EPS estimate also fell from US$2.46 per share to US$2.15 per share. Net income forecast to grow 37% next year vs 23% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target up from kr141 to kr151. Share price rose 3.5% to kr161 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 29
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.39 (up from US$0.15 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$79.5m (up 43% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$30.1m (up 159% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 38% (up from 21% in 3Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 20%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 35%. Revenue is expected to fall by 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 3.9% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 60% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 29
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Declares Dividend for the Third Quarter 2023, Payable on December 15, 2023 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. declared a dividend of $0.50 per share or $38.3 million for the third quarter 2023. Ex-date: December 7, 2023, Record date: December 8, 2023, Payment date: December 15, 2023 and Date of Approval: November 27, 2023. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 02
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$270.9m to US$287.7m. EPS estimate increased from US$2.12 to US$2.38 per share. Net income forecast to grow 44% next year vs 29% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target up from kr131 to kr153. Share price rose 22% to kr168 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 01
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to kr162, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Total returns to shareholders of 744% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at kr119 per share. Price Target Changed • Oct 19
Price target increased by 15% to kr131 Up from kr114, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of kr131. Stock is up 108% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.15 for next year compared to US$1.16 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 18
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from US$1.94 to US$2.20. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$258.4m. Net income forecast to shrink 5.4% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway . Consensus price target up from kr114 to kr121. Share price rose 12% to kr130 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$238.4m to US$261.2m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.76 to US$2.09 per share. Net income forecast to grow 12% next year vs 19% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target up from kr104 to kr114. Share price rose 14% to kr121 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 01
Price target increased by 9.9% to kr114 Up from kr104, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 6.9% above last closing price of kr107. Stock is up 113% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$2.09 for next year compared to US$1.16 last year. Announcement • Aug 31
Avance Gas Holding Ltd. Announces Dividend for the Second Quarter 2023, Payable on September 14, 2023 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. announced dividend for the second quarter 2023 with Dividend amount: $0.50. Ex-date is September 7, 2023. Record date is September 8, 2023. Payment date is September 14, 2023. Date of Approval is August 29, 2023. Reported Earnings • Aug 31
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.47 (up from US$0.24 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$84.6m (up 30% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$35.7m (up 94% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 42% (up from 28% in 2Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 14%. Revenue is expected to fall by 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 12% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 77% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. New Risk • Aug 31
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 60% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 13% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (60% net debt to equity). Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (dividend per share is over 198x cash flows per share). Major Estimate Revision • Jun 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$222.8m to US$243.2m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.33 to US$1.69 per share. Net income forecast to grow 17% next year vs 47% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target up from kr83.67 to kr106. Share price rose 15% to kr98.10 over the past week. Announcement • May 31
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Announces Dividend for the First Quarter 2023, Payable on June 14, 2023 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. announced dividend of USD 0.50 per share for the first quarter 2023. Last day including right: June 6, 2023. Ex-date: June 7, 2023. Payment date: June 14, 2023. Date of Approval: May 29, 2023. Reported Earnings • May 31
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.47 (up from US$0.32 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$77.0m (up 16% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$36.3m (up 49% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 47% (up from 37% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is expected to fall by 5.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 10% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 10% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 64% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 30
Avance Gas Holding Ltd Declares Dividend for the First Quarter 2023 Avance Gas Holding Ltd. declares dividend of $0.50 per share or $38.3 million for the first quarter 2023. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to kr85.30, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 4x in the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Total returns to shareholders of 431% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • May 25
Price target increased by 13% to kr92.67 Up from kr82.00, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 14% above last closing price of kr81.30. Stock is up 69% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.32 for next year compared to US$1.16 last year. Major Estimate Revision • May 14
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 16% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from US$1.12 to US$1.30. Revenue forecast unchanged at US$218.1m. Net income forecast to grow 13% next year vs 49% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target up from kr82.00 to kr83.67. Share price rose 2.5% to kr70.90 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 27
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 11%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from US$207.0m to US$184.3m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.08 to US$1.18 per share. Net income forecast to grow 2.7% next year vs 32% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at kr82.00. Share price fell 2.9% to kr69.50 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 25
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 11%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from US$207.0m to US$184.3m. EPS estimate increased from US$1.08 to US$1.18 per share. Net income forecast to grow 2.7% next year vs 15% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at kr82.00. Share price fell 6.0% to kr70.70 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 19
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$1.16 (up from US$0.44 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$254.5m (up 21% from FY 2021). Net income: US$89.0m (up 177% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 35% (up from 15% in FY 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 16%. Revenue is expected to fall by 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 9.8% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Norway. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 48% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. 
