Alignment Healthcare Future Growth
Future criteria checks 6/6
Alignment Healthcare is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 39.5% and 20.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 41.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 24.1% in 3 years.
Key information
39.5%
Earnings growth rate
41.45%
EPS growth rate
| Healthcare earnings growth | 18.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 20.5% |
| Future return on equity | 24.14% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 14 Jul 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jun 29
Alignment Healthcare: A 33% Grower Worth Owning At 48x Forward Earnings, Just Not Yet
Summary Alignment Healthcare hit a profitability inflection in Q1 2026, growing revenue 33% and expanding margins while holding its medical cost ratio steady near 88%. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance across membership, revenue, gross profit, and EBITDA, and analyst estimate revisions have been uniformly positive over the past 90 days. Despite the strong operations, ALHC trades at roughly 48.8 times forward earnings and 28.6 times forward EBITDA, a clear premium to Medicare Advantage peers, leaving little margin of safety. I rate ALHC a Hold. Fair value sits near $20–22 against a current price around $23, and the stock's history of sharp drawdowns suggests a better entry will come. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jun 20
Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock Could Be 12.3% Undervalued After Earnings Beat
Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) has drawn fresh attention after reporting quarterly earnings ahead of expectations and outlining a leadership reshuffle, with CEO John Kao adding Chairman responsibilities as Joseph Konowiecki becomes Vice Chairman and Executive Vice President of Corporate Affairs. See our latest analysis for Alignment Healthcare. Alignment Healthcare's recent earnings beat and leadership changes come on the back of strong momentum, with a 33.54% 1 month share price return and a...
Narrative Update • Jun 13
ALHC: Reset Multiples And Execution Risks Will Shape Balanced Return Potential
Analysts trimmed their price targets on Alignment Healthcare by $3, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly higher discount rate, a lower projected revenue growth rate, a modestly stronger profit margin, and a reduced future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alignment Healthcare sits against a broader managed care backdrop where some analysts continue to favor insurers over healthcare facilities, citing concerns about inflation and commercial mix for providers.
Narrative Update • May 30
ALHC: Managed Care Positioning And Membership Trends Will Support Margin Recovery
Analysts have trimmed Alignment Healthcare's blended price target by $0.58 to reflect lower published Street targets, including recent cuts to $16 and other revisions that factor in updated views on managed care versus provider earnings risk. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show mixed sentiment around Alignment Healthcare, with some price targets trimmed and others adjusted, as analysts reassess how managed care stocks stack up against provider earnings risk.Narrative Update • Apr 30
ALHC: Lofty Future P/E And Margin Uncertainty Will Limit Long Term Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alignment Healthcare by about $1.38 to roughly $19.38. The change reflects updated views on fair value, a slightly higher discount rate, adjustments to expected revenue growth and profit margin, and a higher future P/E multiple in light of recent research updates from major firms.
Narrative Update • Apr 14
ALHC: Higher Revenue And Margin Assumptions Will Support Earnings Visibility
Narrative Update on Alignment Healthcare Analyst price targets for Alignment Healthcare have moved higher by several dollars per share, with researchers citing adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin assumptions and P/E expectations as key reasons for the updated views. Analyst Commentary Across recent research, bullish analysts have been lifting their price targets on Alignment Healthcare by several dollars per share.Narrative Update • Mar 31
ALHC: Membership And Retention Trends Will Support Margin Recovery Outlook
Analysts have nudged the average price target for Alignment Healthcare slightly higher to about $25.50, citing updated models that reflect recent target increases across several firms and refinements to growth, margin, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alignment Healthcare centers on refreshed models and higher price targets, with bullish analysts pointing to membership trends and updated out year estimates as key inputs.Narrative Update • Mar 17
ALHC: Strong AEP Execution And Membership Gains Will Support Earnings Visibility
Analysts have lifted Alignment Healthcare's average price target by $10 to $30, citing updated models that factor in stronger AEP sales and retention, higher projected 2026 membership, and extended estimates through 2030. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to a cluster of higher price targets on Alignment Healthcare, with several firms revisiting their models in light of updated membership and sales assumptions.Narrative Update • Mar 03
ALHC: Membership And Retention Momentum Will Drive Margin Recovery Potential
Analyst price targets for Alignment Healthcare have been lifted by several firms in recent weeks, and our fair value estimate has moved from $21.04 to $25.42 as analysts factor in updated membership expectations and refreshed multi year financial models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Alignment Healthcare has been active, with several firms adjusting their price targets and extending their financial models.Narrative Update • Feb 17
ALHC: Strong AEP Sales And Retention Are Expected To Support Earnings Visibility
Analysts have raised their average price target for Alignment Healthcare to $30, pointing to updated models that factor in stronger AEP sales, better member retention into 2026, and extended estimates through 2030. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alignment Healthcare has centered on higher price targets and refreshed models that extend several years out, reflecting growing attention to the company’s execution on enrollment and retention.Narrative Update • Feb 02
ALHC: Strong Q4 2025 Enrollment Trends Support Long-Term Earnings Visibility
Narrative Update on Alignment Healthcare The analyst price target for Alignment Healthcare has moved to US$30.00, with analysts pointing to refreshed models that reflect recent enrollment trends, updated membership assumptions into 2026, and extended earnings estimates through 2030. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have recently refreshed their models on Alignment Healthcare and lifted price targets, citing updated assumptions around member growth, retention, and extended earnings visibility out to 2030.Narrative Update • Jan 19
ALHC: Strong Q4 2025 Enrollment And Retention Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have lifted their price targets on Alignment Healthcare by roughly $6 to around $29 per share, citing updated models that factor in strong Q4 2025 AEP sales and retention, higher expected 2026 membership, and extended forecasts through 2030. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are pointing to refreshed models that run through 2030 as a key driver behind the higher price targets for Alignment Healthcare.Narrative Update • Jan 05
ALHC: Uneven Medicare Advantage Margin Recovery From 2026 Will Pressure Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alignment Healthcare to US$21, citing expectations for a US$3 upside to fair value, supported by views of stronger revenue growth, improving profit margins, and a lower forward P/E multiple as Medicare Advantage margins potentially recover over time. Analyst Commentary Goldman Sachs has started coverage on Alignment Healthcare with a US$21 price target, framing the call within a broader view that Medicare Advantage margins could enter a recovery phase starting in 2026.Analysis Article • Dec 20
Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALHC) Revenues Despite 25% Price Jump
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALHC ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 25% share price jump in...Narrative Update • Dec 14
ALHC: Margin Recovery From 2026 Will Shape Medicare Advantage Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Alignment Healthcare from $13.60 to $18.00 per share, citing expectations for accelerating Medicare Advantage growth, modestly higher long term revenue expansion, and improving margins as the industry enters a margin recovery phase starting in 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent coverage has highlighted Alignment Healthcare as a differentiated Medicare Advantage platform positioned to benefit from a multi year margin recovery across the sector starting in 2026.Narrative Update • Nov 29
ALHC: Margin Recovery in Medicare Advantage Will Offer New Upside and Risks
Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Alignment Healthcare from $20.88 to $21.04, citing expectations for a margin recovery in Medicare Advantage and an improved industry outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent coverage updates provide additional perspective on the outlook for Alignment Healthcare as analysts weigh both positive catalysts and ongoing risks in the managed care sector.Narrative Update • Nov 15
ALHC: Value-Based Medicare Advantage Will Drive Market Share Gains
Analysts have raised their price target for Alignment Healthcare by $0.42 to $20.88. They cite expectations of continued revenue growth and the company's value-based Medicare Advantage model as factors supporting ongoing market share gains.Narrative Update • Oct 31
ALHC: Margin Recovery Will Drive Medicare Advantage Market Share Gains
Analysts have raised their price target for Alignment Healthcare from $19.09 to $20.45 per share, citing anticipated margin improvements and a favorable outlook for its Medicare Advantage business. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Analysts highlight Alignment Healthcare's strong positioning within Medicare Advantage and foresee market share gains as value-based care accelerates in the sector.Analysis Article • Jul 06
An Intrinsic Calculation For Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALHC) Suggests It's 21% Undervalued
Key Insights Alignment Healthcare's estimated fair value is US$17.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...Analysis Article • Jun 13
Should You Investigate Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALHC) At US$15.08?
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALHC ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a...Analysis Article • May 29
It Looks Like Shareholders Would Probably Approve Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ALHC) CEO Compensation Package
Key Insights Alignment Healthcare will host its Annual General Meeting on 5th of June Salary of US$817.3k is part of...Analysis Article • May 14
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALHC) Stock's 29% Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALHC ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 29% after a relatively good period...
New Narrative • Mar 21
AVA Integration And High Stars Ratings Set To Improve Future Margins
Significant membership growth outside California and high Stars ratings are driving revenue growth and enhancing market footprint.Analysis Article • Mar 20
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALHC) Soars 26% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward
Despite an already strong run, Alignment Healthcare, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALHC ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of...Analysis Article • Mar 06
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALHC) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights Alignment Healthcare's estimated fair value is US$20.95 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...Analysis Article • Feb 13
Should You Investigate Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALHC) At US$14.52?
While Alignment Healthcare, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALHC ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the NASDAQGS...Analysis Article • Jan 17
Further Upside For Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALHC) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 34% Bounce
The Alignment Healthcare, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALHC ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 8,032 | 164 | 272 | 276 | 5 |
| 12/31/2027 | 6,510 | 97 | 198 | 221 | 11 |
| 12/31/2026 | 5,189 | 42 | 137 | 162 | 11 |
| 3/31/2026 | 4,257 | 20 | 226 | 252 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 3,949 | -1 | 113 | 140 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 3,637 | -21 | 151 | 182 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 3,336 | -51 | 28 | 63 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 3,002 | -91 | 19 | 58 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,704 | -128 | -7 | 35 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 2,468 | -144 | -187 | -144 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,232 | -153 | -207 | -164 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,013 | -157 | -190 | -151 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 1,824 | -148 | -95 | -59 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 1,720 | -158 | -53 | -21 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 1,624 | -163 | 49 | 78 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 1,528 | -146 | 25 | 51 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 1,434 | -150 | -69 | -45 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1,371 | -140 | 53 | 74 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 1,304 | -146 | -38 | -19 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 1,246 | -179 | -73 | -52 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 1,168 | -195 | -99 | -79 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 1,112 | -180 | -80 | -59 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 1,066 | -123 | -66 | -46 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 1,002 | -70 | -26 | -9 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 959 | -23 | -8 | 8 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 757 | -45 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALHC's forecast earnings growth (39.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: ALHC's earnings (39.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (17.3% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ALHC's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ALHC's revenue (20.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ALHC's revenue (20.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ALHC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.1%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/26 17:49 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/24 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. is covered by 20 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Hua Ha | Baird |
| Sarah James | Barclays |
| Andrew Mok | Barclays |