McDonald's (MCD) Stock Overview
Owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald’s brand in the United States and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 5/6 |
MCD Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$238.97
FV
15.6% overvalued intrinsic discount4.86%
Revenue growth p.a.
172
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McDonald's Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$276.36 |
| 52 Week High | US$341.75 |
| 52 Week Low | US$271.98 |
| Beta | 0.44 |
| 1 Month Change | -3.59% |
| 3 Month Change | -16.69% |
| 1 Year Change | -11.53% |
| 3 Year Change | -2.87% |
| 5 Year Change | 18.79% |
| Change since IPO | 157,913.00% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • May 27
McDonald's: Still Lovin' The Moat
Summary McDonald’s is rated Buy, with a DCF-implied share price of $315.98, offering 11.94% upside. MCD’s resilient franchise and real-estate-backed model drive durable mid-single-digit revenue growth and sustained operating margins above 40%. Q1 FY2026 delivered 9.4% YoY revenue growth and 45.3% EBIT margin, supported by menu innovation, digital engagement, and international expansion. Key risks include cost inflation, FX volatility, and regulatory pressures, but MCD’s global brand and capital allocation discipline support long-term compounding. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 20
MCD: Value Menu Reset Will Support High Conviction Franchise Cash Generation
Analysts have trimmed the McDonald's fair value estimate from $345.00 to $330.00, reflecting slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples, even as broader research remains generally constructive on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on McDonald's reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings while reassessing growth, margins, and valuation multiples.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 27
McDonald's: Still Lovin' The Moat
Summary McDonald’s is rated Buy, with a DCF-implied share price of $315.98, offering 11.94% upside. MCD’s resilient franchise and real-estate-backed model drive durable mid-single-digit revenue growth and sustained operating margins above 40%. Q1 FY2026 delivered 9.4% YoY revenue growth and 45.3% EBIT margin, supported by menu innovation, digital engagement, and international expansion. Key risks include cost inflation, FX volatility, and regulatory pressures, but MCD’s global brand and capital allocation discipline support long-term compounding. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 20
MCD: Value Menu Reset Will Support High Conviction Franchise Cash Generation
Analysts have trimmed the McDonald's fair value estimate from $345.00 to $330.00, reflecting slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples, even as broader research remains generally constructive on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on McDonald's reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings while reassessing growth, margins, and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Apr 27
MCD: Value Menu Reset Will Support Digital And Franchise Model Upside
McDonald's updated analyst price target edges up by about $0.15 to $345.00 as analysts factor in slightly higher profit margin expectations and a modestly adjusted discount rate, following a wave of recent upgrades and target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on McDonald's has been active, with a cluster of target changes and rating moves pointing to a mixed but generally constructive debate around valuation, earnings quality, and the pace of future growth.Narrative Update • Apr 11
MCD: Value Menu Repositioning Will Support Digital And Franchise Model Breakout
McDonald's updated analyst price target edges slightly lower to about $344.85 from $345.21. Analysts point to a modestly higher discount rate and slightly softer profit margin assumptions, while continuing to highlight the brand's global reach, digital investments, and franchise model in recent research.Narrative Update • Mar 27
MCD: Value Menu Repositioning And Digital Efficiencies Are Expected To Support Breakout
McDonald's Analyst Price Target has been nudged higher to $345.21 from $344.09 as analysts point to the company's powerful global brand, rapid unit expansion, digital and AI-driven efficiencies, and an asset light franchise model as key supports for its updated valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on McDonald's has been skewed toward higher price targets and rating upgrades, with several banks citing brand strength, digital investments, and the franchise model as key supports for the current valuation reset.Narrative Update • Mar 13
MCD: Value Repositioning And Digital Efficiencies Are Expected To Support Breakout Potential
Analysts have nudged our McDonald's fair value estimate higher from $341.28 to $344.09. This reflects their higher Street price targets that point to the brand's global reach, franchise model, operational efficiencies, and steady U.S. business momentum.Narrative Update • Feb 27
MCD: Value And Digital Execution Are Expected To Support Breakout Setup
Narrative Update McDonald's fair value estimate edges up by about $2 to $341.28 as analysts lift price targets across the stock. They cite what they see as higher quality growth, strong profitability and benefits from digital investments, marketing and value initiatives into 2026.Narrative Update • Feb 13
MCD: Value Positioning And Brand Repositioning Are Expected To Support Breakout Potential
Analysts have nudged their McDonald's price target higher to about $339 from $331, citing modestly stronger revenue growth assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, and only small tweaks to long term profit margin and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research on McDonald's has been active, with several price target revisions and rating changes clustered around a similar thesis.Narrative Update • Dec 20
MCD: Value Strategy And Cost Tailwinds Will Balance Consumer Traffic Risks
Analysts have nudged their price target on McDonald's slightly higher to $331.20. This reflects modest improvements in projected revenue growth and profit margins, even as they remain cautious about the company's value focus amid ongoing pressure on lower income consumers.Narrative Update • Dec 06
MCD: Value Promotions And Remodels Will Balance Consumer And Margin Pressures
Analysts have trimmed their McDonald's fair value estimate slightly, lowering the target by about $0.30 to roughly $331. This reflects modestly softer long term revenue growth assumptions and a higher discount rate, which offset a small improvement in projected profit margins and still robust expectations for value driven traffic and potential multiple expansion.Narrative Update • Nov 22
MCD: Value Initiatives And Consumer Headwinds Will Shape Market Share Performance
McDonald's analyst fair value estimate was nudged higher to $331.53 from $330.87, as analysts point to ongoing value initiatives and expectations for store growth and market share gains, which support the updated outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst notes on McDonald's highlight a mix of optimism about the company’s value initiatives and store growth, while also flagging continued caution regarding consumer trends and traffic drivers.Narrative Update • Nov 08
MCD: Value Focus And Consumer Trends Will Shape Performance Amid Mixed Signals
McDonald's analyst price target edged slightly lower to $330.87 from $331.14, a modest adjustment reflecting analysts' cautious outlook over mixed consumer traffic trends and evolving value strategies, while balancing these factors against resilient revenue growth forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on McDonald's reflects a broad mix of optimism and caution, with price targets being adjusted in response to changing consumer dynamics and evolving company strategies.Narrative Update • Oct 25
Future Performance Will Rely On Value Positioning And Digital Expansion
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value price target for McDonald's to $331.14 from $331.52. They cite continued caution around consumer spending and uncertainty over the impact of value-focused initiatives on traffic and margins.Narrative Update • Oct 10
International Expansion And Digital Commerce Will Shape Future Success
Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for McDonald's to $331.52, a decrease of about $4. This adjustment reflects cautious outlooks on the company's value-driven strategy and continued pressure on lower-income consumer spending.Narrative Update • Sep 04
International Expansion And Digital Commerce Will Shape Future Success
Analysts remain divided on the benefits and risks of McDonald's value initiatives amid a challenging competitive landscape and cautious U.S. consumer outlook, with the consensus price target unchanged at $334.85. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight McDonald's scale, marketing power, and digital leadership as key advantages in navigating consumer uncertainty and driving share gains, especially through new products and targeted promotions.Analysis Article • Jul 15
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Key Insights The projected fair value for McDonald's is US$346 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity McDonald's...Analysis Article • Jun 27
McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) Is Very Good At Capital Allocation
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. One common approach is to try and...Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
McDonald's: Steady Fundamentals, Cloudy Future Of Tariffs
Summary McDonald's remains a solid company with stable fundamentals, but its current price suggests modest long-term returns. Despite historical revenue slumps, McDonald's has grown free cash flow by controlling gross margins, crucial amid concerns about Trump's tariffs and rising costs. The company's strong balance sheet, supported by valuable real estate assets, ensures it can manage debt and weather economic headwinds effectively. With Q1 2025 earnings approaching, management's insights on tariffs and consumer impact will be pivotal; current valuation suggests fair value, lacking major growth catalysts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 18
McDonald's Golden Arches In Danger -- Numerous Headwinds Ahead
Summary MCD's bullish uptrend support remains robust, thanks to its excellent branding power as the largest food-chain in the world, with $221.9B in brand valuation in 2024. Even so, it is undeniable that MCD has delivered underwhelming comparable sales growth and profit margins in 2024, worsened by the impacted balance sheet health. If anything, readers must note that its FY2025 guidance has yet to "include any impact from potential new tariffs," worsened by the deteriorating macroeconomic and consumer environment. The growing anti-US sentiments may also derail MCD's ambitious international growth plans, particularly in China, pending further policy clarity. Combined with the higher short interest volumes, heightened risks of stagflation, and pulled forward upside potential, MCD's golden arch investment thesis appears mixed indeed. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 18
McDonald's: Value Menu, Digital Focus To Sustain Competitive Advantage, Upgrade To Buy
Summary I think McDonald’s stock will be a safe heaven in 2025 considering the uncertainty surrounding tariff and inflation. The company’s value menu and digital focus would sustain their competitive advantage despite a weak consumer spending environment. The company handled the food safety crisis well, and I think McDonald's steady growth will be favored amid the uncertain macro environment. I am upgrading MCD stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a fair value of $320. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 26
Wall Street Lunch: McDonald's Will Digest High Egg Prices
Summary McDonald's is absorbing higher egg costs due to bird flu, unlike competitors adding surcharges, and is promoting a $1 McMuffin to attract budget-conscious consumers. Chip stocks are rallying ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with significant open interest in SMCI options indicating potential volatility. New home sales fell in January, but median prices rose, with economists predicting slight declines in prices over the next few quarters. Amazon unveiled Alexa+, an AI-powered assistant with enhanced capabilities, while Wells Fargo sees an opportunity in Communications Services stocks due to recent non-fundamental sell-offs. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 12
McDonald's: Not Finding Compelling McValue Here
Summary McDonald's delivered poor Q4 results, with flat revenue, missing Street expectations despite stronger performance in overseas markets. Same-store sales growth in the U.S. declined due to an E. coli outbreak, offsetting the benefits of the company's $5 Meal Deal extension. The company announced a new McValue offering in the U.S. in January, officially extending the Meal Deal through summer, but in my view, this will do little to help trends. I'm reiterating my sell rating on McDonald's stock, especially as the stock trades at a ~25x forward P/E for nearly nonexistent earnings growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 28
McDonald's Committed To Winning The Value Battle (Q4 Earnings Preview)
Summary McDonald's business model, primarily as a franchisor, ensures stable, recurring revenues with less operational risk, but limits gains during sales spikes. Despite facing headwinds like high commodity prices and traffic challenges, McDonald's expansion plans and value meals aim to drive growth and maintain volume. In this article, we will focus on the upcoming earnings report to understand what the key points may be and how they could affect McDonald's share price. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 07
McDonald's: Value, Innovation, And Operational Excellence To Support Revenue Expansion And Margin Improvements
Summary In 3Q24, McDonald's generated $6.9 billion in revenues, posting a revenue growth of 2.7% y/y and 5.9% q/q. Overall margins deteriorated slightly due to higher financial expenses. Despite a poor consumer outlook, the food and beverage industry is poised for a potential rebound. At least 79% of consumers intend to spend the same or more at QSR. MCD has multiple initiatives to expand revenue and enhance margins. Some of these examples include focusing on the larger chicken market and encouraging more price-sensitive consumers by offering more value. Valuation analysis suggests that the implied share price of MCD is $326.35. Based on the current share price, even if there is no multiple expansion, there is a potential upside of 10.80%. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 06
McDonald's: Investors Will Get A Lot Of Stomach Pain Here
Summary I'm initiating McDonald's with a sell rating. The world's largest fast-food chain has dramatically underperformed both the S&P 500 and fast-casual rivals over the past few years. The company's "Accelerating the Arches" plan is insufficient to revive sales growth, with Q3 trending at a -1.5% same-store sales decline. In the long run, health trends may steepen decay. Its plan to make promotions and $5 Meal Deals more prominent is also helping to contribute to an operating margin decline, on top of rising labor costs. MCD stock has an unattractive valuation at ~25x forward P/E despite near-zero growth in the near term, with uncertain drivers to resurrect growth in the long run. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 24
McDonald's Stalled SSS Can't Be Stopped By 'McRib' And 'McValue'
Summary McDonald's will reintroduce the McRib sandwich on December 3rd and offer half-gallon jugs of McRib sauce starting November 25th. No price point announced, but higher pork prices suggest potential sticker shock for customers. McRib is another attempt to restore comps and traffic that cannot succeed over the long term. The real problem with McDonald's is high daily prices that do not provide good value and are unaffordable for large swaths of the public. A radical re-thinking is necessary. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 05
McDonald's: A Mixed Performance Over The Past Few Months
Summary McDonald's long-term thesis remains intact: focusing on value products and continuing with its restaurant expansion plan. The results have been somewhat mixed, but the actions taken by management are the right ones for the long term. Additionally, many of its competitors are facing the same challenges. The consequences of potential fines related to the E. coli outbreak remain to be seen, but they do not jeopardize the thesis, and there are several reasons that differentiate this. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 27
McDonald's: E. Coli Is Not A Nothingburger, But There Is More To This Correction
Summary McDonald's remains a long-term Hold despite recent E. coli concerns, with its stock down 8% in a week but still up 20% from early summer levels. Historical parallels with Chipotle suggest potential short-term challenges, but McDonald's geographically diversified market presence mitigates similarly extreme downturns. Yet, current high valuation metrics justify a correction regardless of the E. coli outbreak. McDonald's franchise model and valuable real estate holdings provide strong financial resilience, though short-term caution is advised until the full extent of the bacteria outbreak is more tangible. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 21
McDonald's: $5 Meal Deals Not Enough To Convince Discerning Customers
Summary I am rating McDonald’s stock a "hold" with a price target of $284 due to valuation concerns and macroeconomic headwinds despite recent sales initiatives. The $5 Meal Deal and core menu innovations like The Big Arch and Chicken Big Mac aim to restore value perception and drive comparable sales growth. Growing loyalty membership, which currently stands at 166M, is expected to increase order values and purchase frequency, enhancing customer engagement. Despite projected revenue and earnings growth, McDonald’s trades at a premium compared to faster-growing competitors, limiting the stock's risk-reward attractiveness. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 08
Wall Street Lunch: McDonald's Starts A Beef
Summary McDonald's is suing major meatpackers for allegedly colluding to inflate beef prices by limiting supplies since 2015. PepsiCo slides after guiding for a low-single-digit increase in organic revenue, Q3 results miss. Check out Wells Fargo’s update to its signature picks list. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| MCD | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -1.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| 1Y | -11.5% | -6.7% | 27.0% |
Return vs Industry: MCD underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -6.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MCD underperformed the US Market which returned 27% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MCD volatility | |
|---|---|
| MCD Average Weekly Movement | 2.4% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 7.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.9% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.0% |
Stable Share Price: MCD has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MCD's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1940 | 150,000 | Chris Kempczinski | www.mcdonalds.com |
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald’s brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate.
McDonald's Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| MCD fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$196.18b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$8.68b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$27.45b |
22.6x
P/E Ratio7.2x
P/S RatioIs MCD overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MCD income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$27.45b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$11.71b |
| Gross Profit | US$15.74b |
| Other Expenses | US$7.06b |
| Earnings | US$8.68b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 12.21 |
| Gross Margin | 57.35% |
| Net Profit Margin | 31.62% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | -3,119.7% |
How did MCD perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
2.7%
Current Dividend Yield60%
Payout RatioDoes MCD pay a reliable dividends?
See MCD dividend history and benchmarks| McDonald's dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Jun 02 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jun 16 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 1 day |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 13 days |
Does MCD pay a reliable dividends?
See MCD dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/02 10:08 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/02 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
McDonald's Corporation is covered by 60 analysts. 32 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jim Marrone | Accountability Research Corporation |
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| David Tarantino | Baird |