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darius_john

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The Foxhole

·21 days agoIs Nvidia actually expensive at 32 times earnings? I think that number can melt faster than people realise.

Gross margin and reasons given for it.

The Foxhole

·23 days agoDruckenmiller says cheap money's days are numbered. Boring, self-funding companies could be the opportunity.

Pension funds, banks, Fed, central banks around the world. Fed and foreign central banks have been cutting down. I don't see that as a healthy sign.

The Foxhole

·23 days agoDruckenmiller says cheap money's days are numbered. Boring, self-funding companies could be the opportunity.

I won't touch the banks now.

The Foxhole

·24 days agoApple's near record highs, yet the AI crowd still writes it off as a laggard. I think they're misreading the strategy.

Apple is really playing it smart. I'm not sure if it is a deliberate choice.

The Foxhole

·27 days agoGold miners still look inexpensive because the market thinks we're near the top of the cycle. Given what's happening to the dollar, I'm not so sure.

I really doubt that :D

The Foxhole

·29 days agoGoogle (GOOG) just paid US$10 million for a dead airline's emails. I think some companies are sitting on undervalued data goldmines, just waiting to strike a deal. But which can monetize it without going broke?

Easier for dead companies to do this.

The Foxhole

·30 days agoThe crowd thinks AI winners will be the labs behind the models. I think an easier pick is hiding in payments, and Stripe just spent US$7 billion proving it.

What's up with Stripe? They want to acquire PayPal. Now OpenRouter. They are onto something.

The Foxhole

·about 1 month agoA dozen retail giants report this week, and they won't agree on whether the consumer is healthy. What if that disagreement is the real signal?

Off-price only wins when other shops mess up their ordering. The middle is squeezed from both sides in every weather. And luxury follows the stock market, not salaries, which is why it fell in 2008 while rich people were still rich.The catch with luxury is that most of it is bought by people stretching for one nice thing, and they stop first. And off-price cannot sell what nobody over-ordered.

The Foxhole

·about 1 month agoMicron (MU) is booming, and it still doesn't look ‘expensive’ based on next year's earnings. So why does our own valuation say it could be worth 40% less?

Memory used to have a dozen participants racing each other into oversupply, and now it has three. High bandwidth memory is qualified into customer designs years ahead, sold under long-term agreements, and is far harder to switch away from than commodity DRAM.

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