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HZN·over 1 year agoMaari Life Extension And Mereenie Drilling Will Strengthen Future Production Capacity

What's your figure ($) on the development CAPEX and maybe more generally assumed future CAPEX? Without too much context around the risks, the disocunt rate might be a bit too low. It would be useful if you ran a probability tree on these i.e. ( "IF 'X' (probability=80%) happens THEN 'Y' (p=50%) could happen" sumproduct = p/100). Also useful to help understand if they're independent of eachother or not. Then analyse the outcome by sensitising those risks (+/-10%)... if in doubt, Monte Carlo it...

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ASML·over 1 year agoWhy ASML Dominates the Chip Market

Fair to say that ASML doesn't have a sales problem. The economic moat on their EUV's is so seemingly vast and deep - it doesn't get better. Can you shed some light on how ASML's production capacity factors into your valuation. Where i'm coming from: If demand is strong (with or without China), and production capacity is basically fixed (I don't know this but would appreciate the context either way) then it leaves only two operational drivers for earnings growth - 1) price increase or, 2) cost reductions, and this seems less likely given the demand and competitive forces (not incentivised to drive costs down, moreso drive increased production or next version of EUV's).

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