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Weekly Picks
Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
23
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
61
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
63
users have followed this narrative
New
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Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
3
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
Updated
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Lennar
ZE
Zev
Community Contributor
The Future of Lennar and Homebuilding Faces Short Term Challenges with Potential for Long Term Growth
History of Homebuilding: Homebuilding has been in decline since April 2022, and it was the following month when public sentiment realized they were facing a housing crisis. Notable causes were the sharp drop in new home building starts, sharp increases in federal funds rate, rising mortgage rates, peak of average/median home sales price, and high months' supply ratio.
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US$162.49
FV
28.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
5.67%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
22
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
PDD
PDD Holdings
MA
Maxell
Community Contributor
PDD Holdings will see accelerating growth with a 74% price target increase
Executive Summary Based on exceptional recent execution and accelerating growth metrics, we revise our 12-month price target for PDD Holdings to $165.00, representing approximately 74% upside from the current price of $94.68. Recent Performance Highlights Q3 2024 demonstrated remarkable acceleration across key metrics: Transaction services revenue surged 72% year-over-year, significantly outpacing expectations Operating profit increased 46% to RMB 24.3 billion with expanding margins Net income growth accelerated to 61% year-over-year Cash position strengthened to $44 billion, providing substantial strategic flexibility Key Growth Catalysts International Expansion: Temu's semi-entrusted model showing stronger-than-anticipated margin improvement Geographic footprint expanded to 70+ countries with robust user acquisition metrics Customer acquisition costs decreased 22% quarter-over-quarter Platform Economics: Take rate expanded to 3.8%, demonstrating pricing power Monthly active users exceeded 900 million in Q4 2024 Merchant retention rate stable at 89% despite take rate increases Risk Assessment Near-term Challenges: EU's VLOP designation may require additional compliance investments Potential changes to U.S. de minimis import rules Intensifying competition in cross-border e-commerce Revised Valuation Analysis Given the acceleration in key metrics, we apply a 10x FY2024E EV/EBITDA multiple (up from 8x), still below high-growth internet peers at 12-15x.
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US$165.00
FV
33.3% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-6.30%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
3
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
18
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
Pinterest
NA
NateF
Community Contributor
PINS Market Outlook
Sector: Communication Services Industry: Internet Content & Information Market Capitalization: $19.7b (mid cap) Major Competitors: Pinterest (PINS) faces intense competition from a variety of social media platforms, search engines, and e-commerce-focused platforms. Some of its major and direct competitors in the digital advertising and social media space include: Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) Platforms: Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp Competitive Aspects: Meta's platforms dominate the social media advertising space, and they offer rich, data-driven ad products similar to Pinterest's.
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US$37.68
FV
0.2% overvalued
intrinsic discount
12.14%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
1
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
7
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
Microsoft
NA
NateF
Community Contributor
MSFT Market Outlook
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has demonstrated consistent growth and maintains a strong position in the technology sector. Microsoft is a company that designs and sells hardware devices, such as the Xbox 360 and Surface Pro.
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US$532.45
FV
1.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.34%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
2
users have liked this narrative
2
users have commented on this narrative
57
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
Seacrest Petroleo Bermuda
IM
Imthetxarbi
Community Contributor
Seacrest Petroleo Bermuda is worth 0
Everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong. The assets are now owned by the bank and creditors Poorly managed company with very slow decission making , unable to react that have wasted a Great future.
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NOK 0.000001
FV
12.0m% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-72.73%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
7
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
25
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
POSCO Holdings
DR
DrPotato
Community Contributor
POSCO Holdings aims for 4% profit margin growth with lower inflation support
Positive Factors for the next 5years: * Reduced Inflation: Lower inflation generally improves business conditions. It reduces input costs for steel production, potentially increasing profit margins.
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€199.98
FV
78.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
1.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
3
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
M&T Bank
MA
maxoo554
Community Contributor
M&T Bank will Ride Market Trends in the Next 3 Years
M&T Bank's stock price is likely to move in line with broader market trends and the overall performance of the banking sector. Potential: Strong economic growth and rising interest rates could positively impact M&T Bank's profitability.
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US$210.00
FV
11.9% undervalued
intrinsic discount
-100.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
3
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
MINISO Group Holding
SU
SuEric
Community Contributor
Top Pick for Multi-bagger
Strong Q1 2024 Performance In Q1 2024, $MNSO revenue surged 26% year-on-year to $515.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 200 basis points to 25.9%. This growth was fueled by a robust strategy of opening new stores globally.
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US$44.06
FV
57.9% undervalued
intrinsic discount
20.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
9
users have liked this narrative
20
users have commented on this narrative
24
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
Cidara Therapeutics
BI
birdflustocks
Community Contributor
Cidara Therapeutics: The underestimated potential of CD388
Summary CD388 is a universal long-lasting influenza drug against all seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses in a phase 2b clinical trial. CD388 is not a vaccine but would provide 6 months of protection.
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US$100.00
FV
37.1% undervalued
intrinsic discount
83.73%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
9
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
35
users have followed this narrative
7 months ago
author updated this narrative
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