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Cadbury Nigeria Plc saw its market value surge by 21% in the equities segment of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) over the past week, as investor sentiment turned optimistic in anticipation of the company’s Q1 2025 earnings release. The stock advanced from ₦22.00 to ₦26.60 , with over 1.34 million shares changing hands, amounting to ₦35.3 million in value.

Catalysts Most Immediate Catalyst (1–2 Years): Strong Oncology Portfolio Growth: AstraZeneca’s cancer drugs Tagrisso, Imfinzi, Enhertu, and Calquence continue gaining market share, driving double-digit revenue growth in oncology. Respiratory & Cardiovascular Expansion: New approvals and label expansions in Farxiga (diabetes/heart failure) and Tezspire (severe asthma) can drive meaningful sales upside.

U.S. jewelry sales advanced a tepid 1.3% in 2024, driven primarily by price increases as the number of units sold dropped 1.6%, according to industry analyst Edahn Golan of Tenoris. Yet, while American consumers largely hit the pause button on new jewelry purchases, the accessible-luxury jewelry brand Pandora posted 8% same-store sales growth in the U.S. last year.

EBIT-margin trajectory: Historical: 2.3 % → 3.6 % (FY 22/23) ​, down to – 2 % (FY 23/24) ​, back to 3 % in Q1 24/25 ​ Forecast: Gradual recovery to 4–6 % by FY 25/26, reaching 6–8 % by FY 29/30 Revenue growth: Historical: + 70 % (FY 22/23) ​, + 30 % (FY 23/24) ​, + 27 % (Q1 24/25) ​ Forecast: ~ 15 % CAGR over the next five years (FY 24/25–29/30) Five-year share-price goal: Current fair value: € 8.5–9.0 per share Five-year target: € 14–15 per share (≈ 1.9 bn EUR market cap) Enterprise value (EV) outlook (DCF-based): Revenues rising to ~ 1.8 bn EUR by FY 29/30 EBIT of ~ 145 m EUR (8 % margin) → NOPAT ~ 102 m EUR FCF margin ~ 5 % → ~ 90 m EUR FCF Terminal-value multiple: EV/FCF = 15 → TV ~ 1.35 bn EUR Discounted EV: ≈ 1.18 bn EUR + net cash 0.69 bn EUR → ≈ 1.87 bn EUR → ~ 14.8 EUR/share Top risks: execution delays, margin pressure from competition, raw-material cost swings, subsidy uncertainty, heavy capex needs Narrative Outlook Over the next five years, thyssenkrupp nucera is poised to leverage its unique position at the intersection of mature Chlor-Alkali expertise and rapid Green-Hydrogen adoption. After a transitional phase in FY 23/24 with negative margins driven by upfront investments, the company’s shift toward series-manufactured AWE modules and high-growth project backlog supports a steady margin recovery.

Full disclosure. I am a shareholder at the time of writing this.

Over the coming decade, two forces converge to transform Vossloh’s prospects: Germany’s unprecedented €500 billion infrastructure fund and the strategic bolt-on of Sateba, Europe’s leading concrete-sleeper maker. Together they unlock fresh markets, deepen Vossloh’s moat, and set the stage for multi-year revenue and earnings growth.

Catalysts Are there any products or services that could move sales or earnings meaningfully? Lycopodium (LYL) is an engineering consulting company whose core business is building and developing mines for its clients, including in growth areas such as battery minerals and Africa.

Abbey Mortgage Bank Plc kicked off 2025 on a strong note, posting a 68.64% jump in gross earnings to ₦3.77 billion in Q1 2025, compared to ₦2.24 billion in the same period last year. The impressive topline growth signals continued momentum in its income-generating activities, even as core lending activities showed signs of moderation.

Catalysts Most Immediate Catalysts (1–2 Years) Increased Demand for Fiber Networks: As broadband penetration and 5G rollout accelerate across Europe and the Nordics, operators are investing in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and backhaul infrastructure—directly benefiting Hexatronic’s product portfolio. Strategic Partnerships & Contracts: Recent contracts with major telecom operators and network integrators boost short-term revenue visibility and enhance Hexatronic’s market presence.